Gold Derby nuggets: SAG Awards sets calendar | Evening Standard long list includes budding stage star Keira Knightley

• The Dec. 16 nominations announcement for the Screen Actors Guild Awards will air live on TNT from the Pacific Design Center. Nominees are determined by the 4,200 SAG members who sit on separate film and television screening panels. In the wake of the success of other awardscasts going live nationwide, the 17th annual edition of these kudos will follow suit. TNT and TBS will beam the Jan. 30 festivities from the Shrine Auditorium live from coast to coast beginning at 5 p.m. PT. SAG AWARDS •Scott Kraft chats with "Fair Game" star Naomi Watts and Valerie Palme, the real-life subject of the film. L.A. TIMES • Erik Childress surveys the lead actor field and...

One year ago: What Oscar pundits prophesized

Let this be a lesson to all of us smug Oscar seers who insist that they know how the current derby will play out. Most of us now say that it's "The Social Network" versus "The King's Speech" for best picture, Colin Firth ("The King's Speech") versus James Franco ("127 Hours") for lead actor and Natalie Portman ("Black Swan") versus Annette Bening ("The Kids Are All Right") for lead actress. But true? One year ago today, we weren't even talking about the eventual winners of lead actor and actress: Jeff Bridges ("Crazy Heart") and Sandra Bullock ("The Blind Side"). BEST PICTURE: Last year in mid-October we had a decent grasp of the best picture race...

Latest Oscar predictions: Lead actress

Two contenders seem to be out front to win the Oscar for lead actress: Annette Bening ("The Kids Are All Right") and Natalie Portman ("Black Swan"). Both rivals have the Cool Factor and significant camps rooting for them to win. Bening's performance as a lesbian momma is low-key compared with her flamboyant turns in the films that earned her past nominations: "The Grifters," "American Beauty" and "Being Julia." Ordinarily, this role wouldn't reap an Oscar bid, but Bening is so overdue to win that she could ride the same wave that resulted in victory for previous overdue veterans such as Helen Mirren ("The Queen"), Susan Sarandon ("Dead Man Walking") and Shirley MacLaine ("Terms of Endearment")....

Poll: Will 'Winter's Bone' be nominated for best picture at the Oscars?

Now that "Winter's Bone" leads with the most nominations at the Gotham Independent Film Awards (three), its Oscar hopes brighten. But how much? Only three previous Gotham champs were nommed for best picture in the past: "The Hurt Locker," "Capote" and "Sideways." "Winter's Bone" faces a crowded field at the upcoming Oscar derby. Currently, there are 13 front-runners competing for the 10 best-picture slots: "127 Hours," "Black Swan," "The Fighter," "Hereafter," "How Do You Know," "Inception," "The Kids Are All Right," "The King's Speech," "The Social Network," "The Town," "Toy Story 3," "True Grit" and "The Way Back." Jockeying right behind: "Alice in Wonderland," "Another Year," "Blue Valentine," "For Colored Girls," "The Ghost Writer," "How...

Latest Oscar predictions: Best picture

Since "The Social Network" has not disappointed at the box office, it retains its status as the front-runner to win best picture at the Oscars. However, buzz builds fast for "The King's Speech," which is just the kind of grand historical drama that academy voters used to adore. Normally, royal film pageants don't do well at the early film-critics' awards, though, and nowadays those critics' kudos seem to matter more than ever. Critics' trophies certainly helped to propel "The Hurt Locker" Oscar bound last year. What's possible this year? Anything. Journos often like to shake things up by making oddball calls. This year that could mean victory by, say, "Toy Story 3" at the New...

Gold Derby nuggets: EW covers 'The Social Network' | 'Tangled' unfurled | Anderson Cooper to daytime

• Dave Karger chats with the cast of "The Social Network" including this week's EW cover boys Justin Timberlake, Jesse Eisenberg and Andrew Garfield as well as screenwriter Aaron Sorkin. In the print interview, Timberlake talks about his dormant music career, admitting, "Does a painter make a painting because he has to make it by December 21st? No, he doesn't. It happens when it pours out of him. That’s how music is for me." And when pushed about future projects, Timberlake responds, "All I'm saying is, in very simple terms, I'll know when I know. And until I know, I don't know." EW • In a provocative article, Gregg Kilday and Matthew Belloni ask, "Will...

The social relevancy of 'The Social Network' is key to its Oscar hopes

Forget for a moment that "The Social Network" is a superb film, scoring 100 at Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes. The American movies with the highest scores at Metacritic in 2008 and 2007, "Wall-E" and "Ratatouille," weren't even nominated for best picture at the Oscars. But "The Social Network" has a quality that gives it an edge in the current derby: It reflects the national zeitgeist during this Age of Facebook. Academy voters want their best pictures to feel important, to provide special insight into the world (or cyber world) we inhabit today. One of the reasons that "The Hurt Locker" scored so powerfully with voters last year was because it enabled them to feel firsthand...

Is the Oscar derby already over?

At this point, it sure looks like we have solid Oscar front-runners for best picture ("The Social Network"), best actor (Colin Firth, "The King's Speech") and best actress (Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"). It's very possible that all three could trot across the derby finish line without tripping en route. However, we must remember how these top races appeared at this point last year. We knew that "The Hurt Locker" might be nominated for best picture, but that wasn't a certainty, and the front-runners were presumed to be "Up in the Air," "Invictus" and "Avatar." There were still high hopes for "Nine" and "The Lovely Bones," even "Brothers." Looking forward on this year's derby track, what...

Gold Derby nuggets: TIFF premieres Oscar hopefuls | 'The Fighter' contends | Foreign language film hopefuls

• Nicole LaPorte recaps the race for the Oscars in the wake of the Toronto film fest, including an analysis of a best actress bout between Hollywood vet Annette Bening ("The Kids Are All Right") and the ingenue Natalie Portman ("Black Swan"). As Nicole writes, "With the acquisitions mood relatively low-key -- long gone are the days of all-night bidding wars, thanks to the economy and the slimmed-down independent film market -- the focus was almost entirely on predicting this season's 'The Hurt Locker.' No one seemed to mind that it's still relatively early, and that a number of films already looming large in the Oscar race, such as David Fincher's Facebook movie, 'The Social...

Thelma Adams: 'Black Swan' is the Oscar front-runner

Thelma Adams (Us Weekly, Thelmadams.com) sends us her Oscar scouting report from Canada: "Out of Toronto, 'Black Swan' is immediately the front-runner in the Oscar race, the one to beat. That means best picture, best actress Natalie Portman, best director Darren Aronofsky, best screenplay, best supporting actor Vincent Cassel (who’s about to get a lot more work in America), and possibly even a campaign for best supporting actress for Barbara Hershey -– a campaign but not necessarily a nomination." Photo: "Black Swan" (Fox Searchlight) Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.

Oscar derby update: Race for best picture

Now that many Oscar contenders are being widely seen by media and industry wags, I think the race for best picture is becoming clearer. Here's my snapshot of the track as I see it now from my box seat at the Toronto International Film Festival. I won't get to see "The Social Network" until I return to New York on Thursday, but early reviews are in. And they're great, suggesting that we have an official front-runner. BEST PICTURE (Front-runners) "127 Hours" "Black Swan" "Inception" "The King's Speech" "The Social Network" "Toy Story 3" "The Kids Are All Right" (Possible) "Blue Valentine" "Hereafter" "How to Train Your Dragon" "Never Let Me Go" "Secretariat" "The Way Back"...

Natalie Portman is the official Oscar front-runner

"That's it! The best actress race is already over!" gasped a notable Oscar-tracking journo after witnessing Natalie Portman's dazzling diva turn in Darren Aronofsky's ballet thriller, "Black Swan," at the Toronto International Film Festival. I was equally wowed and tempted to agree with that Oscar assessment except for one cautious reminder. At this point on last year's calendar we didn't know that the eventual winners of the last Academy Awards for best actress and actor -- Sandra Bullock ("The Blind Side") and Jeff Bridges ("Crazy Heart") -- were even in the running. That said, it's still fun to make fierce pronouncements, so let's leap as boldly as Portman does on screen while she performs "Swan...


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