Oscar poll: Who'll win best supporting actress?

At this time last year, Mo'Nique was already out front in the Oscar race for best supporting actress based upon the early buzz generated by "Precious" at the Sundance Film Festival. And there was no stopping her thereafter, of course. This year, there is no leader. Some pundits say Helena Bonham Carter is ahead thanks to "The King's Speech's" status as a best picture front-runner, but, truth be told, her role as the beloved "queen mum" Elizabeth isn't very expressive. Other seers say Dianne Wiest is ahead for portraying Nicole Kidman's doting mom in "Rabbit Hole," but that's just because she's an automatic Oscar grabber with past victories for "Hannah and Her Sisters" and "Bullets...

Is the Oscar derby already over?

At this point, it sure looks like we have solid Oscar front-runners for best picture ("The Social Network"), best actor (Colin Firth, "The King's Speech") and best actress (Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"). It's very possible that all three could trot across the derby finish line without tripping en route. However, we must remember how these top races appeared at this point last year. We knew that "The Hurt Locker" might be nominated for best picture, but that wasn't a certainty, and the front-runners were presumed to be "Up in the Air," "Invictus" and "Avatar." There were still high hopes for "Nine" and "The Lovely Bones," even "Brothers." Looking forward on this year's derby track, what...

Oscar buzz: 'Rabbit Hole' for best picture?

Oscar seers have been leery of "Rabbit Hole" because of its trouble finding a distributor, but Nicole Kidman has been getting strong buzz in the lead-actress race as a mother striving to cope with the death of her 4-year-old son. Pete Hammond hails her performance as "brilliant" at Deadline Hollywood, adding, "This is easily her best work since winning an Oscar for 2002's 'The Hours.'" Maybe that shouldn't be a surprise. The role earned Cynthia Nixon a Tony Award in 2006 for the Broadway production, which was also nominated for best play. But there's always been a strong suspicion that "Rabbit Hole" isn't really equal to its reputation — that it is lightweight fluff that's...

Natalie Portman is the official Oscar front-runner

"That's it! The best actress race is already over!" gasped a notable Oscar-tracking journo after witnessing Natalie Portman's dazzling diva turn in Darren Aronofsky's ballet thriller, "Black Swan," at the Toronto International Film Festival. I was equally wowed and tempted to agree with that Oscar assessment except for one cautious reminder. At this point on last year's calendar we didn't know that the eventual winners of the last Academy Awards for best actress and actor -- Sandra Bullock ("The Blind Side") and Jeff Bridges ("Crazy Heart") -- were even in the running. That said, it's still fun to make fierce pronouncements, so let's leap as boldly as Portman does on screen while she performs "Swan...

Toronto Film Festival lineup loaded with Oscar hopefuls

The 35th annual edition of the Toronto Film Festival is scheduled to include the world and North American premieres of a slew of awards contenders. This year's festival is to kick off on Sept. 9 and run for 11 days. Among the 50 titles announced Tuesday are the following films that could well figure in the contests for kudos this year: "Another Year" -- The latest domestic drama by Mike Leigh ("Happy Go Lucky") is centered on a middle-aged couple (Jim Broadbent, Ruth Sheen) and their assorted friends and family, including a saucy alcoholic (Lesley Manville). "Biutiful" -- Oscar champ Javier Bardem won best actor at Cannes for his portrayal of a dying father looking...

10 closest Oscar races in the past 20 years

One of the shrewdest Oscarologists on the planet is Tariq Khan of Fox News, who often generously shares his views of current and past derbies with Gold Derby readers. Here he takes a nostalgic look at the past two decades, offering his take on the most competitive derbies. Words below are Tariq's. Thanks, m'friend! We’ve often discussed those Oscar races that seem just too close to call . . . where it’s clear (or at least seems clear) that the eventual winner will nab the Oscar with only a few more votes than his or her nearest competitor. While we can never really know for sure (unless we get one of those top jobs at...

Will 'The Sopranos' reunite at the Tony Awards?

Among the list of 28 celebrities announced today as presenters at the June 7 Tony Awards are the usual assortment of talented thespians, including six Oscar winners. However, the names that stand out are a pair of Emmy champs — Edie Falco and James Gandolfini. Each won three of TV's top honor over the seven-year run of "The Sopranos." Two years ago, the much-hyped series finale of that mob crime drama whacked the competition in the ratings. Among the shows it trounced — that year's Tonycast. Both Edie Falco and James Gandolfini were relatively unknown actors before "The Sopranos" made them household names after it debuted on HBO in 1999. Each had worked extensively in...

Which winners would you force to give back their Oscars?

Come to think of it, maybe Matt Damon was right when he recently said that the Oscars "get it wrong more often than they get it right." If I were the king of the Oscars (someday — just you wait, Derbyites!) and had the power to take away past wins, the first awards I'd yank from the clutches of undeserved winners are these: Reese Witherspoon ("Walk the Line"), Nicole Kidman ("The Hours"), Sean Penn ("Mystic River" — I'd let him keep the Oscar if he'd won for "21 Grams" that year), Russell Crowe ("Gladiator"), Geoffrey Rush ("Shine"), Jack Nicholson and Helen Hunt ("As Good as It Gets"), Al Pacino ("Scent of a Woman" — he...

Can Amy Adams really pull off an upset at the Oscars?

When Tariq Khan makes a bold Oscar prediction, take heed. He's one of the savviest Oscarologists I know and this year he's going where no other guru dares: out onto a thin, shaky limb for Amy Adams ("Doubt") for supporting actress. Interesting call! That category, after all, is where most Oscar upsets happen. Tariq has one of the best Oscar prediction rates every year. Check out the forecasts he made last year for Fox News — he scored 100%. Earlier this derby season he was one of the first pundits warning us that Kate Winslet might be nommed for "The Reader" instead of "Revolutionary Road." Below, Tariq makes his argument for Amy Adams, building his...

Golden Globes nominations reax: Don't got 'Milk'?!

The biggest jaw dropper among the Golden Globe nominations is the omission of "Milk" in the best picture category, of course — just one day after it won that prize from the New York Film Critics Circle. Can it still win at the Oscars? Sure. Twice, Oscar's eligible best pic champs weren't even nommed at the Golden Globes: "Crash" and "The Sting." Besides, we're used to the Oscars and Golden Globes going their own ways recently. The Golden Globes dispense separate kudos for drama and comedy-musical races, which makes comparisons to the Oscars difficult, but in the past 64 years, the Oscars have validated one of the Golden Globe top pics 42 times. Over the...

EXCLUSIVE: Why Baz Luhrmann loves tripping up the derby with wild ponies like 'Moulin Rouge!' and 'Australia'

Seven years after director Baz Luhrmann experienced a crazy romp through the kudos derby riding "Moulin Rouge!" he's back with "Australia. " What does he think of awardsmania? Why does he risk the wrath of gritty film critics to make his wildly romantic movies in the cynical 21st century? Last Wednesday night, Baz and I teamed up to do a Q&A screening chat at the Directors Guild of America theater in New York. We didn't have enough time to cover all key topics, so we hooked up again on Friday afternoon to continue dishing — this time with a video camera tuned in so you can watch. Camerawork by Paul Sheehan

Sean Penn goes gay — dying for another Oscar?

Good news for Sean Penn fans: At the end of "Milk" — SPOILER ALERT — you get to watch your hero get blown away by gunfire. Sorry, but that seems to be the price Penn must pay if he wants to win another Oscar to match the chunk of academy gold he nabbed for 2003's "Mystic River." That's because gay roles that win Academy Awards for actors almost always must suffer ghastly deaths. No star has ever won an Oscar for portraying a gay, lesbian or transgender person who lives happily ever after. The character of Truman Capote (Philip Seymour Hoffman) gets to live, yes, at the end of "Capote," but we know that he'll...


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