Here's our latest take on the recent twists and turns on the derby track.

BEST PICTURE
The best-picture hopes of "Up in the Air" and "The Hurt Locker" got a boost from being the only two films backed by all 20 experts forecasting the Oscar nominees at The Envelope's Buzzmeter.

Mystery surrounds how Peter Jackson's "The Lovely Bones" will fare in top derby races. After it debuted at a royal premiere in London's Leicester Square, the Sun crowned it "the best film of next year," adding, "Yes, even better than the 'Lord of the Rings' trilogy."

However, the London Guardian gave it only two stars out of five, infuriated that director Jackson scrubbed "Bones" clean when adapting the bestselling novel about the rape and gruesome murder of a 14-year-old girl. The newspaper harrumphs: "The screen version is so infuriatingly coy, and so desperate to preserve the modesty of its soulful victim, that it amounts to an ongoing clean-up operation."

Mystery also surrounds the derby fate of "Nine" after it received mixed responses at early screenings. Audiences went wild for it at SAG nom com Q&As. But was that largely because they were blinded by the star wattage in attendance, including past Oscar champs Daniel Day-Lewis, Nicole Kidman, Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench and Marion Cotillard? Lou Lumenick of the New York Post witnessed so much negativity at a different industry screening he attended that he removed "Nine" entirely from his list of potential best-picture nominees at The Envelope's Buzzmeter.

Overall, it has received mostly enthusiastic reax. However, many industry pros are quick to add, "It's no 'Chicago.' " Translation: It will be nominated for best picture, but it won't win. "For a movie this well pedigreed not to get a nomination, something would have to have gone terribly wrong," insists Lane Brown of New York Magazine's Vulture blog.

Again, I reiterate that the Weinstein Co.'s best hope for a best-pic victory is "Inglourious Basterds," but no one believes me. Just wait till Golden Globe and DGA noms come out, you naysayers!

BEST ACTOR
The chief problem with "Nine" is the casting of Daniel Day-Lewis, who portrays the adorable, charmingly seductive Guido as a scowling, smug, vile-tempered, chain-smoking egomaniac. He's old enough to be the poppa of the gals he treats like annoying slaves. In other words, forget the playful, winking 30-ish
Marcello Mastroianni you saw in the film upon which this musical was based, Federico Fellini's "8 1/2." This is your father's Guido (Day-Lewis is 52 years old) and – watch out, kiddies – Daddy's in a really bad mood.

Nonetheless, the majority view is that Day-Lewis can do no wrong and his lack of huggability is offset by his superstar aura and high Cool Factor. Maybe so. Over all, reax are positive, and a growing number of Oscarologists believe he'll reap a bid for best actor in a crowded field.

What to think of Tobey Maguire's odds for "Brothers"? Easily, it's his most impressive performance ever, brimming with scary believability as he goes bonkers after escaping nightmarish captivity as a soldier in Afghanistan. Spider-Man proves that he's a serious actor in "Brothers," but Steve Pond of the Wrap believes that the film has problems: "Despite impressive moments of frayed-nerve intensity, there’s precious little subtlety here and way too many cliches."

But beware: Many Oscarologists made the mistake of underestimating the Oscar luck of director Jim Sheridan, whose "In America" (2003) scored three surprising nominations — best screenplay plus acting bids for Samantha Morton and Djimon Hounsou in the supporting slot.

Biggest surprise in The Envelope's Buzzmeter is such strong support for Colin Firth ("A Single Man"), who receives the most support from our pundits predicting best actor: 17 votes out of 20. George Clooney ("Up in the Air") comes in second place (16), followed by Morgan Freeman ("Invictus") with 11 votes. "Invictus" was finally seen by media last week, but there's still an embargo on reviews. One thing is clear: Forget early scuttlebutt you may have heard about Freeman giving a performance as Nelson Mandela that really belongs in the supporting slot. Nope. He's lead.

"The Road" debuts in theaters today, thus officially launching Viggo Mortensen into the race. Read more about his Mortensen's candidacy here, where you can see my video chat with him.

BEST ACTRESS
The screenings of "Nine" deflated Marion Cotillard's hope of being nominated for best actress two years after winning for "La Vie en Rose." She doesn't enter the film until more than halfway through, and then she doesn't stick around for long, disgusted by Daniel Day-Lewis' philandering. (You go, girl!) Maybe that's a good thing, considering how Oscar voters love to embrace the role of long-suffering wife. However, it's clear to most Oscarologists that the Weinstein Co. has pushed her up to lead in hope of spreading the gold. "Nine" already has too many gals in the supporting cast. Penelope Cruz and Judi Dench have real shots at bids for best supporting actress. Nicole Kidman is in that derby too, but forget it. Her role isn't showy enough.

Pete Hammond is exulting in a well-deserved, I-told-you-so stance over his early warning that Sandra Bullock could be a serious derby rival. Now he crows, "I stand by this more than ever"  now that "The Blind Side" has opened "with an over-performing $34.6 million (Bullock's best ever) and a very rare A + Cinemascore rating."

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• "Let's give young people a chance to win some Oscars!" roars a fan of "Twilight: New Moon." "It's time for a change." Never mind that film critics drove a stake through the loving heart of the box-office smasheroo ($140 million opening weekend), giving it only a score of 44 at Metacritic. MTV wonders, "Is it possible that a vastly more inclusive Oscar race could welcome Robert Pattinson and Kristen Stewart's vampire saga to its esteemed contest?"

• Of course, again, as usual, British TV swept the International Emmys, this time winning five awards, but the Danes scored a significant victory in the race for best TV drama series. "'The Protectors' won out over four other international dramas, including acclaimed British production ‘Spooks,’" boasts the Copenhagen Post. "'The Protectors' follows a group of intelligence officers acting as bodyguards to high-level Danish politicians and has proved popular for public broadcaster DR. Peter Thorsboe and Mai Brostrøm have previously won the same honour for their two previous police dramas – 'Rejseholdet' ('Unit One') and 'Ørnen' ('The Eagle'), in 2002 and 2005 respectively." The Associated Press has the full list of winners, including the first-ever victory for Brazil.

• The Olivier Award may be London's equivalent to Broadway's Tony Award, but there's another highly prestigious theater prize. It's bestowed by the top-selling local newspaper, the Evening Standard. The award  focuses primarily on plays and is judged by a panel of theater critics. It's helped to launch many plays across the Atlantic, such as  past champs "The History Boys," "Copenhagen" and Tom Stoppard's "Arcadia," "The Invention of Love" and "Rock 'n' Roll." This year the prize for best play was just presented at the Royal Opera House to "Jerusalem," a three-hour-plus black comedy by Jez Butterworth. It also won best actor for Mark Rylance (recent Tony champ for "Boeing-Boeing") for portraying a tax-dodging stoner. Rachel Weisz won best actress for playing Blanche DuBois in Donmar Warehouse's revival of "A Streetcar Named Desire." EVENING STANDARD

• Twenty-five tunes have just been added to the 851 recordings in the Grammy Hall of Fame. The selected recordings range from 1923's "Dipper Mouth Blues" by King Oliver & His Jazz Band to 1977's "Birdland" by Weather Report. Other recordings also chosen this year include Louis Armstrong's "Lazy River," the Beach Boys' "California Girls," James Brown's "It's A Man's Man's Man's World," George's Carlin's "Class Clown," the Doors' "Riders on the Storm," Jose Feliciano's "Feliz Navidad," and Bob Marley & the Wailers' "Catch A Fire." Other artists with selections include the Isley Brothers, Bo Diddley, Judy Garland, Gene Kelly, Mahalia Jackson, Harry James & His Orchestra, Janis Joplin, Johnny Mercer, Jelly Roll Morton and the Nitty Gritty Dirt Band.

• Lady Gaga says she's being treated unfairly by the Grammys. POP & HISS

• Let's clarify category confusion at the Golden Globes. Contrary to cyber-rumor, Peter Saarsgard is going supporting for "An Education" in the film acting races. There was scuttlebutt that the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. wanted to hike him to lead, but that's not true, according to a rep for Sony Pictures Classics. On the TV side, Fox informs Gold Derby that the only female star of "Glee" who is going lead in the comedy/musical category is Lea Michele.

• The title star of "Marley & Me" is one of the top winners of the Fido Awards, the canine world's equivalent to the Oscars, which hail the best doggone moments in 2009 flicks. Other top dogs include the four-legged stars of "Up," "Beverly Hills Chihuahua," "Fish Tank" and "The Young Victoria." LONDON GUARDIAN

• Speaking of cyber-rumors, don't believe the claim that "Two Lovers," starring Joaquin Phoenix and Gwyneth Paltrow, isn't eligible at the Oscars because it  was made available by HDNet for video on demand prior to its release in theaters. A rep for Magnolia Pictures tells Gold Derby, "There was an L.A. County qualifying run the week of January 9th, prior to the VOD date."

• Kudos competition: ABC's American Music Awards outperformed CBS’ 2009 Emmy Awards in adults 18-49. TVBYTHENUMBERS

• Tennessee Williams received Oscar nominations for screenplays twice ("A Streetcar Named Desire," "Pretty Baby"). Now there's hope he can return to the derby posthumously, 26 years after his death for "Loss of a Teardrop Diamond."  Trailer can now be viewed exclusively at . . . COMINGSOON.NET

• Hollywood Reporter's Roger Friedman is raving about the stage production of "Dreamgirls," debuting now at the Apollo Theater before going on national tour. He roars, "From the reaction last night, the producers had better get a Broadway theater and move in before the Tony deadline of April 29, 2010. The revival of Michael Bennett’s 'Supremes'-like musical is simply a smash, making stars of unknowns like Maya Angela and Chester Gregory." SHOWBIZ 411

Photos: Summit Entertainment, Royal Court Theater, 20th Century Fox

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Initially scheduled to be released in 2008, "The Road" got detoured, heading back to the editing room when there were early creative glitches with the production. Was it the end of the road for its kudos hopes? There were early high expectations for the film adaptation of the award-winning novel about a father and son struggling to survive doomsday after it was included in Oprah Winfrey's Book Club. A movie adapted from another Oprah Book Club title did pretty well at the last Oscars derby: "The Reader."

Now there's suddenly new excitement about "The Road," thanks to ace reviews, especially for the harrowing performance of Viggo Mortensen. Declared the Hollywood Reporter: "Director John Hillcoat has performed an admirable job of bringing Cormac McCarthy's Pulitzer Prize-winning novel to the screen as an intact and haunting tale, even at the cost of sacrificing color, big scenes and standard Hollywood imagery of post-apocalyptic America." The New York Times cheered his performance for putting "flesh on the bones and a soul behind the exhausted, terrified eyes" of a character known simply as the Man.

"The Road" could be nominated for best picture and Viggo could make the list for lead actors, competing against front-runners George Clooney ("Up in the Air") and Jeff Bridges ("Crazy Heart"), plus stars of two other films also produced by the suddenly roaring-back-to-life Weinstein Co. -- Daniel Day-Lewis ("Nine") and Colin Firth ("A Single Man"). Viggo lost to Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood") two years ago when he received his first and only academy bid for "Eastern Promises." He wasn't nominated for starring in those "Lord of the Rings" Oscar juggernauts.

"The Road" may seem bleak, but its message is really inspiring. It's my second-favorite film of the year -- after "Precious." Viggo and I had a chance to chat informally a few days ago just hours before we teamed up to do a Q&A screening of "The Road" for the nominating committee of the Screen Actors' Guild.

Photo: Weinstein Co.

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"Up in the Air" and "The Hurt Locker" are the only two films cited as likely Oscar best-picture nominees by all 20 of the pundits contributing to The Envelope's first Buzzmeter of derby season. Participants include Brad Brevet (RopeOfSilicon), Greg Ellwood (HitFix), Erik Davis (Cinematical), Edward Douglas (ComingSoon.net), Scott Feinberg (AndTheWinnerIs), Paul Gaita (The Circuit, The Envelope), Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season, The Envelope), Peter Howell (Toronto Star), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Kevin Lewin (World Entertainment News Network), Lou Lumenick (New York Post), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Mark Olsen (Los Angeles Times), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Richard Rushfield (Gawker), Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere) and me.

All pundits project 10 nominees for best picture and five in the other top races. Scores cited below represent the total tally of punits' predix of each contender per category. Click here to see a breakdown of what each pundit forecasted. Many thanks to our editor Patrick Day for compiling the Buzzmeter so carefully by hand.

BEST PICTURE
SCORE 
20 – "Up in the Air," "The Hurt Locker" –  received votes from all of our pundits.
19 – "Precious" – Jeff Wells is a holdout
19 –  "Invictus" – Snubbed by Erik Davis
16 –  "Nine"
15 –  "Up"
14 –  "An Education," "Inglourious Basterds," "A Serious Man"

BEST ACTOR
SCORE 
17 –  Colin Firth, "A Single Man"
16 –  George Clooney, "Up in the Air"
14 –  Morgan Freeman, "Invictus"
11 –  Daniel Day-Lewis, "Nine"
10 –  Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"
7 –  Viggo Mortensen, "The Road"

BEST ACTRESS
SCORE
18 –  Carey Mulligan, "An Education"
17 –  Gabourey "Gabby" Sidibe, "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"; Meryl Streep, "Julie & Julia"
14 –  Helen Mirren, "The Last Station"
9 –   Abby Cornish, "Bright Star"

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Our forums moderator David "Guru" Schnelwar and I have already dished who we think will score bids for best record of the year when Grammy nominations are unveiled on Dec. 2. Below, we duke it out over best album and add the views of our other forums moderator Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch. See his text write-up below; he'll join us in the future for video slugfests. We all agree that top contenders for this Grammy trophy include Beyonce, Black Eyed Peas, Green Day, Kanye West, Lady Gaga, Taylor Swift, U2 and Whitney Houston.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR: SCHNELWAR'S PREDIX
FRONT-RUNNERS
"Together Through Life," Bob Dylan
"21st Century Breakdown," Green Day
"The Fame," Lady Gaga
"BlackSummers' Night," Maxwell
"Fearless," Taylor Swift

POSSIBLE
"I Am...Sasha Fierce," Beyonce
"The E.N.D. (Energy Never Dies)," Black Eyed Peas
"I Told You So," Whitney Houston
"No Line On The Horizon," U2
"808's And Heartbreak," Kanye West

ALBUM OF THE YEAR: DORTCH'S PREDIX
FRONT-RUNNERS
"21st Century Breakdown," Green Day
"BlackSummers' Night," Maxwell
"Twang," George Strait
"Fearless," Taylor Swift
"No Line on the Horizon," U2
 
POSSIBLE
"Black Ice," AC/DC
"I Am . . . Sasha Fierce," Beyonce
"The E.N.D.," Black Eyed Peas
"Big Whiskey & the Groogrux King," Dave Matthews Band
"Together Through Life," Bob Dylan
"Relapse," Eminem
"I Look to You," Whitney Houston
"The Fame," Lady Gaga
"Dark Horse," Nickelback
"Working on a Dream, Bruce Springsteen
"808s & Heartbreak," Kanye West
"It's Blitz!" Yeah Yeah Yeahs
 
DOUBLED'S COMMENTARY: This category is ridiculously weak this year. ANYONE could get a nomination. Swift is in for obvious reasons and I think the country voting bloc will get George Strait, a well-respected veteran, a nod here as well. Maxwell will get the R&B vote over Beyonce and Whitney Houston since his album has been so well received. Past nominees/winners Green Day and U2 are likely, but I wouldn't be surprised if Lady Gaga or even the BEPs replaced them. Even an under-the-radar act like Yeah Yeah Yeahs, whose album is critically acclaimed, could surprise with a nod here.

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At this early point on the derby track, the race for best actress looks like a matchup between Gabby Sidibe ("Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire") and Carry Mulligan ("An Education"). I think Gabby is a long mile out front. Her devastating performance is what is most precious about "Precious," the movie with the most Oscar buzz. How can voters deny her? Answer: They can't. Frankly, I think this race is already finished.

Bullets on the list below indicate my projected five nominees. Sandra Bullock is suddenly coming on strong thanks to the surprise success of "The Blind Side," but she certainly can't get out front of Gabby. Or even Carey.

Also check out our handicapping of these races: best picture, lead actor, supporting actor.

BEST ACTRESS
FRONT-RUNNERS
Emily Blunt, "The Young Victoria"
• Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side"
Marion Cotillard, "Nine"
Abbie Cornish, "Bright Star"
Zooey Deschanel, "(500) Days of Summer"
Maggie Gyllenhaal, "Crazy Heart"
• Helen Mirren, "The Last Station"
• Carey Mulligan, "An Education"
Saoirse Ronan, "The Lovely Bones"
• Gabourey Sidibe, "Precious"
Meryl Streep, "It's Complicated"
• Meryl Streep, "Julie & Julia"
Audrey Tautou, "Coco Before Chanel"

POSSIBLE
Shohreh Aghdashloo, "The Stoning of Soraya M."
Brenda Blethyn, "London River"
Penelope Cruz, "Broken Embraces"
Bryce Dallas Howard, "The Loss of a Teardrop Diamond"
Michelle Monaghan, "Trucker"
Robin Wright, "The Private Lives of Pippa Lee"

Photos: Lionsgate, Sony Pictures Classics

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• Five-time Oscar nominee Marc Shaiman is returning to the Oscarcast as musical director six years after conducting the orchestra for Billy Crystal's swan song as host. Shaiman earned three of his four Emmy nods for his work on the Oscars, sharing in the 1992 writing win for penning Crystal's opening medley to the 64th edition of the kudos. Shaiman has lost Oscar bids for both scores --  "The American President" (1995); "The First Wives Club" (1996) and "Patch Adams" (1998) -- and songs --  "A Wink and a Smile" from "Sleepless in Seattle" (1993) and "Blame Canada" from "South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut" (1999). For that last losing nod, Shaiman played escort to co-writers Trey Parker and Matt Stone dressed a la Jennifer Lopez and Gywneth Paltrow. The talented musical maestro will be reuniting with Oscarcast producer Adam Shankman who helmed the 2007 film version of Shaiman's Tony-winning 2003 musical "Hairspray." AMPAS

• Todd Martens judged the AMA performances and gave his top marks of A- to Rihanna -- "Ne-Yo told us that the R' in her 'Rated R' stands for either 'remarkable' or 'really, really sexy.' Not quite sure if it completely hit both of those notes, but it was definitely over too soon" -- and Whitney Houston -- "If her instrument isn't what it once was, it can still silence a room. Compared to Blige a few songs ago, Houston was perhaps a bit over the top, but she belted until she was nearly out of breath. It was a powerful moment." POP & HISS

• Rick Porter reports that Sunday night's AMA Awards got the biggest audience for the Alphabet net's annual musicfest in seven years. However, even this was not enough to beat the Peacock's NFL game: "NBC averaged 12.94 million viewers and an 8.0 rating/13 share in households on Sunday, edging CBS (12.69 million, 7.8/12) and ABC (12.14 million, 7.3/12) for the lead." ZAP2IT

• Pete Hammond continues to tout the Oscar potential of Sandra Bullock, star of "The Blind Side." Admits Pete, "I remain the only one of the 20 pundits predicting that Sandra Bullock will be one of the five Best Actress Oscar nominees. I stand by this more than ever now that the movie has opened with an over-performing $34.6 million (Bullock's best ever) and a very rare A + Cinemascore rating." Pete thinks, "It's a big star turn in the kind of real-life role that gets Oscars attention a la Julia Roberts in 'Erin Brockovich.'" However, as he notes, "Universal conducted a large-scale campaign for 'Brockovich' and also landed it a Best Picture nomination, something 'Blind Side' won't likely be able to do. There's also the fact that Bullock has always been a popular star actress as opposed to the kind of critical darling that usually wins the bigger film awards. This, however, is arguably the best performance of her career." NOTES ON A SEASON

• Ryan Adams was wowed by Sunday's "60 Minutes" segment  on Oscar-winning helmer James Cameron ("Titanic") and his upcoming "Avatar." Said Ryan, "there’s an entirely different segment of the Academy elders who recognize the respect and prestige a '60 Minutes' profile can bestow. Having Morley Safer, the veteran CBS Yoda of culture and sophisticated taste give a movie his stamp of enthusiastic anticipation is a showcase more esteemed than money can buy. After some recent worries that 'Avatar' marketing was skewing for maximum youth appeal, many of us have been needing to see it validated as sincere grown-up sci-fi, hoping for a re-certification of maturity. Tonight on '60 Minutes' I think we got it."  AWARDS DAILY

• Following in the footsteps of James Cameron as this year's recipient of the Vanguard award from the Producers Guild of America is Joss Whedon. The award salutes achievements in new media and technology and the roster of previous recipients also includes George Lucas and John Lasseter. Whedon -- equally successful as a TV producer ("Buffy the Vamprie Slayer") and webcast wiz ("Dr. Horrible's Sing-a-Long Blog") -- was cited by kudos co-chairs David Friendly and Laurence Mark for having, "mastered the art of melding the newest technology with inspired storytelling, truly exemplifying the spirit of the Vanguard Award." PGA

• The Santa Barbara filmfest also has a Vanguard award and this year is spreading the wealth around naming a quartet of talent -- Vera Farmiga, Peter Sarsgaard, Stanley Tucci and Christoph Waltz -- as winners. The kudo "was created in recognition of an actor who has forged his/her own path, taking artistic risks and making a significant and unique contribution to film. In previous years, this award was first bestowed on Ryan Gosling and last year to Kristin Scott Thomas." For fest director Roger Durling, “This group of supporting actors encompasses the best of the best; their roles have made us love them as well as hate them, sometimes all at the same time. I am so pleased to have all of them together, in one place to celebrate them and thank them for the cinematic treasures they have created." SBIFF

• For Sasha Stone, "There is more white noise than ever before the start of the actual season, but worse, there seems to be a gaping hole where movies should be." Says Sasha, "'Up in the Air' is the juggernaut everyone should fear. I suspect that it will have one or two challengers but for now, it seems to have a clear shot to victory. They aren’t upsetting the apple cart with too much buzz, noise or ads and they still have the film’s release to look forward to. We can only hope that these films, these Oscar movies, can somehow cross over into the public consciousness. Can Oscar and the public reach synergy? If anyone can do it, George Clooney and Jason Reitman can. Maybe Clint Eastwood and Morgan Freeman can. Maybe Rob Marshall can. Maybe Jim Cameron can. Maybe Nancy Myers, Meryl Streep, Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin can." Wonders Sasha, "Are there any surprises left to be played out?" AWARDS DAILY

• Lane Brown sees the Oscar hopes of "Nine" as on the rise: "For a movie this well pedigreed not to get a nomination, something would have to have gone terribly wrong. A big response at a SAG screening seemingly indicates that that hasn't happened." And among actors, Lane says, "Just three weeks after entering the race, "Crazy Heart" star Jeff Bridges is already the prohibitive favorite. And a great-looking new trailer subtly reminds us that the four-time Academy Award nominee has never won." NEW YORK

• Jeff Wells remains down on the best picture prospects of "Up." Says Jeff, "I sure didn't see 'Up' as a metaphor for anything in my life, I can tell you. It's just a high-strung animated story with a lot of gee-gosh stuff going on and some recognizable heart-and-spirit issues propelling the two main characters." HOLLYWOOD ELSEWHERE

• And Anne Thompson was less than impressed with the American remake of "Brothers." As Anne writes, "David Benioff is a gifted writer ('The 25th Hour'). Jim Sheridan is a gifted director ('In America'). Tobey Maguire, Jake Gyllenhaal and Natalie Portman are gifted actors. So what went wrong on the road to Relativity and Lionsgate’s American adaptation of Danish writer-director Susanne Bier’s extraordinary 2004 movie 'Brothers'?" THOMPSON ON HOLLYWOOD

Photos from top: Trey Parker, Matt Stone and Marc Shaiman at the 1999 Academy Awards ceremony (Los Angeles Times); "The Blind Side" poster (Warner Bros.); "Up in the Air" poster (Paramount)

One of the shrewdest Oscarologists on the planet is Tariq Khan of Fox News, who often generously shares his views of current and past derbies with Gold Derby readers. Here he takes a nostalgic look  at the past two decades, offering his take on the most competitive derbies. Words below are Tariq's. Thanks, m'friend!

We’ve often discussed those Oscar races that seem just too close to call . . . where it’s clear (or at least seems clear) that the eventual winner will nab the Oscar with only a few more votes than his or her nearest competitor.

While we can never really know for sure (unless we get one of those top jobs at the accounting firm of PricewaterhouseCoopers,) we do have some idea of what may have been the closest races in Oscar history. Allow me to present what I believe were the 10 closest acting races over the course of the past 20 years.

1) Jim Broadbent in “Iris” over Ian McKellen in “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring” for best supporting actor of 2001: It seemed like McKellen had it in the bag. He was the only acting nominee of the 13 nods for “Rings,” he had payback votes from those academy members who felt that he should have won best actor of 1998 for “Gods and Monsters,” and he had claimed the SAG Award just a few weeks before the Oscar ceremony. Yet somehow he was edged out by Broadbent in the indie film “Iris.” There’s no doubt that Broadbent’s showy turn in “Moulin Rouge!” and sympathetic role in “Bridget Jones’s Diary” – both released in 2001 – helped to secure his upset victory. McKellen is probably still smarting from the loss, though he should take comfort knowing that the race was a squeaker.

2) Juliette Binoche in “The English Patient” over Lauren Bacall in “The Mirror Has Two Faces” for best supporting actress of 1996: I knew that Golden Globe and SAG winner (not to mention sentimental favorite) Bacall was vulnerable. She had a small part in a comedy that  was overlooked by the academy in every other major category. Plus she didn’t have a reputation for being the nicest person in show business. I nonetheless predicted her to win, believing that the opposition votes would go into too many directions (namely Barbara Hershey in “The Portrait of a Lady” and Marianne Jean-Baptiste in “Secrets and Lies”) for an upset to occur. Silly me. The academy love for “Patient” spilled over into the supporting actress race, carrying Binoche to a shocking victory. I still that think that Bacall registered lots of votes, and that Binoche just barely sneaked past her.

3) Russell Crowe in “Gladiator” over Ed Harris in “Pollock” for best actor of 2000: After buzz for Tom Hanks in “Cast Away” died down, the contest quickly turned toward Crowe and Harris. Crowe had just lost for “The Insider” and had the advantage of being in a best picture nominee (and eventual winner) – while Harris was a beloved veteran playing a real-life person who suffered endlessly on screen. I eventually settled on Harris, thinking that Hollywood would prefer to see him win – and thought I had nailed it when his co-star Marcia Gay Harden took the supporting actress prize. Sure, I was left eating crow on Oscar night – but I’m certain that Harris lost only by a hair.

4) Marisa Tomei in “My Cousin Vinny” over Judy Davis in “Husbands and Wives” for best supporting actress of 1992: The only question bigger than “how many votes did Tomei win by?” may actually be “who came in second?” – my guess being the sensational Davis as a neurotic New Yorker in Woody Allen’s fascinating comedy-drama. Davis had a strong performance in a semi-leading role, the Los Angeles Film Critics Award, and credentials that included a best actress nomination for the prestigious “A Passage to India” eight years earlier. Critics Roger Ebert and the late Gene Siskel both named Davis as their choice for the award, pointing to the rare and refreshing intelligence of her character in the film. With the British vote being split amongst fellow nominees Joan Plowright in “Enchanted April,” Vanessa Redgrave in “Howard’s End” and Miranda Richardson in “Damage,” it seemed that the Australian Davis would surely prevail. In the end, the whole Woody Allen-Mia Farrow-Soon-Yi Previn scandal probably tainted the film – and Davis’ Oscar chances. But Tomei couldn’t have won by too much.

5) Nicole Kidman in “The Hours” over Renee Zellweger in “Chicago” for best actress of 2002: While everyone seemed to think that Kidman was ahead in the derby because she was physically unrecognizable and had just come off a stinging loss for “Moulin Rouge,” I sensed that there were real drawbacks to her candidacy for best actress. She had minimal screen time for a lead Oscar (less than co-stars Meryl Streep and Julianne Moore). She had only one strong dramatic scene (and a relatively short one at that). And she had Zellweger and the “Chicago” steamroller heading straight toward her. Zellweger even edged out Kidman at the SAG Awards, suggesting a similar fate at the Oscars. When Denzel Washington finally opened the envelope he pronounced Kidman the winner “by a nose” – and he couldn’t have been more correct. 

6) Kim Basinger in “L.A. Confidential” over Gloria Stuart in “Titanic” for best supporting actress of 1997: Most Oscar pundits projected a win for Stuart for her spellbinding performance in “Titanic,” even though the film wasn’t really about acting. The chance to see the charming octogenarian take to the stage was seemingly irresistible. Here’s where the “Titanic” juggernaut actually worked AGAINST the film. Since academy members seemed to be voting for it almost everywhere on the ballot, the supporting actress race was one of the few places where they could throw a bone to the highly touted “Confidential.” Basinger and Stuart actually tied at the SAG Awards – I dare say that the same thing almost happened at the Oscars. (How nice that would have been.) 

7) Kevin Spacey in “American Beauty” over Denzel Washington in “The Hurricane” for best actor of 1999: Washington was the early favorite for his meaty role in “Hurricane,” and the previous supporting actor winner for “Glory” seemed due for a lead statuette. Then controversy hurt his film, leaving him with its sole nomination. As momentum for “Beauty” continued to grow, so did support for Spacey – who emerged victorious on SAG night. The two thesps appeared to be deadlocked, with pundits equally divided over the race’s outcome. The controversial Wall Street Journal poll – which correctly forecast every other race – showed Washington ahead with just the slightest lead. While the Journal was ultimately wrong on the outcome here, it was surely right on just how tight this race was. 

8) Kathy Bates in “Misery” over Anjelica Huston in “The Grifters” for best actress of 1990: In an exciting four-way race that included Joanne Woodward in “Mr. and Mrs. Bridge” and breakout star of the year Julia Roberts in “Pretty Woman,” it was surely misery for voters to select one name. While no one seemed certain, Huston was considered the safest bet. She was Hollywood royalty playing a tough-as-nails con woman, and “The Grifters” was nominated in other key categoriesto like director and screenplay. On Oscar night Bates was the unexpected winner, probably because of a split vote between Huston and Woodward. Forget about Jimmy Caan’s ankles. The scariest part of “Misery” is how close Bates came to not winning the Oscar. 

Turn your viewing of the American Music Awards tonight on ABC (5 p.m. PT, 8 p.m. ET) into a multimedia experience. Share your reactions to the wins, performances and general craziness during the ceremony with other award nuts here at The Envelope. Join our live chat.

Who'll nab Grammy bids for best record of the year when nominations are announced Dec. 2? Below, I square off with predix against our Grammy forum moderators David "Guru" Schnelwar and Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch. Schnelwar was available for a video chat about this contest; we'll catch up with Dortch later via webcam. Meantime, his views are written below. All of us agree that top contenders include Beyonce, Black Eyed Peas, Green Day, Kings of Leon, Lady Gaga, Taylor Swift and U2.

(NOTE: Apologies for a bizarre scratching noise that can be heard here and there in the video. I don't know what it is!)

RECORD OF THE YEAR: SCHNELWAR'S PREDIX
FRONT-RUNNERS
"I Gotta Feeling," Black Eyed Peas
"21 Guns," Green Day
"Use Somebody," Kings Of Leon
"Poker Face," Lady Gaga
"You Belong With Me," Taylor Swift

POSSIBLES
"Halo," Beyonce
"Run This Town," Jay-Z featuring Rihanna and Kanye West
"Hot N Cold," Katy Perry
"Working on a Dream," Bruce Springsteen
"I'll Go Crazy If I Don't Go Crazy Tonight," U2

*****

RECORD OF THE YEAR: DORTCH'S PREDIX
FRONT-RUNNERS
"I Gotta Feeling," Black Eyed Peas
"Use Somebody," Kings of Leon
"Poker Face," Lady Gaga
"Pretty Wings," Maxwell
"You Belong With Me," Taylor Swift
 
POSSIBLES
"Halo," Beyonce
"Blame It," Jamie Foxx
"You Found Me," The Fray
"21 Guns," Green Day
“Kids,” MGMT
“Fireflies,” Owl City
"Heartless," Kanye West
"Get on Your Boots," U2

"I Gotta Feeling" spent 14 consecutive weeks at No. 1 on the Hot 100. The last song that accomplished that feat, Mariah Carey's "We Belong Together," garnered a nod here. I think the BEPs are in, as is Lady Gaga, who is having a banner year.

The remaining nominees will be a mix of pop/rock and urban artists, though I have a sneaky suspicion NARAS will dig the more traditional sounds of Maxwell. Look for some surprising general-field love for him. Taylor Swift and Kings of Leon are safe bets here, but Owl City's No. 1 hit "Fireflies" is peaking right during Grammy voting, so watch out. Voter faves like U2, Kanye, Beyonce, etc., could show up here too.

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It doesn't matter what acting category you campaign for at the Academy Awards; voters can put you wherever they want. Most frequently, when ignoring category guidance, they tended to promote contenders from the supporting race to lead like Kate Winslet ("The Reader") and Keisha Castle-Hughes ("Whale Rider"), but sometimes they have the nerve to push a lead contender down to supporting. Which one of these actors suffered that humiliating fate? To see the answer, click on the "Continue reading" link under the photos.

• Jada Yuan chats with Sigourney Weaver about reuniting with "Aliens" helmer James Cameron for "Avatar." Says Weaver -- who landed the first of her three Oscar nods under Cameron's direction -- "Well, he was always so sweet to me during 'Aliens.' And that was a tough picture for him, because the crew had this big Ridley Scott obsession, and it took him a while to get their attention as a filmmaker. But with me and the other actors, I always felt, he cast so well; he's so devoted to his actors. He does get impatient with filmmaking in a way, but he always pushes himself harder than anybody else, so even though he can be a little growl-y, it's over in a second when you move on. He operated on every single shot in this movie." NEW YORK

• Gitesh Pandya of BoxOfficeGuru.com tells Gold Derby: "This weekend against 'Twilight,' 'Precious' expands from 174 to 629 theaters and I think it will gross roughly $11M and rank fifth or sixth.  The total should break $20M by Sunday with a lot more to go."

• An Oscar voter tells us that he received a "DVD bonanza" on Thursday. All of these screeners came in the mail: "(500) Days of Summer," "District 9," "Julie & Julia," "Pirate Radio," "Away We Go," "Taking Woodstock," "A Serious Man," "Coraline" and the animated feature "9."

• Michael Cieply reports of his conversation with James Toback, who explains the absence of his feature documentary "Tyson" from Wednesday's long list of Oscar contenders as ascribable to something "I put fully in the category of extortion that I did not go along with." Responding to this allegation, documentary branch executive committee chair Rob Epstein told Michael: "I have no idea. It certainly hasn’t come before me." As for the selection process, Michael reports, "Epstein said most of about 150 members participated in one or both of two committees that review feature-length and short documentaries. Because of the way films are distributed for viewing among members, who do not see all submissions, a very small number of people can determine the fate of a film. Mr. Epstein described the process as being fairer than an earlier one, under which a Los Angeles-based committee drawn from all Academy branches reviewed documentaries." NEW YORK TIMES

• Steve Pond dug into this story as well and discovered that "each participating member was sent screeners of 15 of the 89 eligible documentary features. The division of labor means that each of the eligible documentaries will have been scored by about two dozen members -- not a large body of voters, but one that should be big enough to absorb any individuals looking to skew the vote for personal reasons." As academy exec Bruce Davis explained, "Toback’s concern was that one of the documentarians voting to pick the shortlist bore him a grudge and should have recused himself/herself from the balloting." However, he said, "The accounting firm has assured us that ‘no single voter was responsible for [“Tyson”’s] failure to make the shortlist." THE ODDS

• Pete Hammond points out an interesting change in the rules for Oscar nominations: "Beginning this year, anyone who has ever been nominated at any time for an Oscar in a category outside of their own area will now be allowed to also nominate in that race too." As per Pete, "This means multi-hyphenates such as actor Warren Beatty now get a say in the exclusive directing and writing clubs as well." NOTES ON A SEASON

• Dave Karger takes a look at the Oscar odds for two films opening today and sees Penelope Cruz as a possibility to land another lead actress nod for her work in "Broken Embraces," while writer-director Pedro Almodovar could contend for his original screenplay, a category where "pickings are quite slim. And he’s won this category before." As for Sandra Bullock in "The Blind Side," Dave says, "It’s been a good year for one of this country’s top sweethearts (with the exception of 'All About Steve, of course). Comparisons to 'Erin Brockovich' may help Bullock’s case, but she still seems like a better bet for a nomination at the Golden Globes." ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY

• Scott Feinberg, however, doesn't think that two-time Golden Globe nominee Sandra Bullock will make the grade with the HFPA this year for her dramatic work in "The Blind Side." Neither does he see her landing a nod for her comedic timing in "The Proposal." Scott does think that Penelope Cruz will get a drama nom for "Broken Embraces" and that Meryl Streep will reap a rare double bid for the comedies "Julie & Julia" and "It's Complicated." AND THE WINNER IS

• The administration committee for the Tony Awards will convene for the first time this season on Dec. 10. The committee is comprised of two dozen theater folk, with 10 apiece from the Broadway League and the American Theater Wing -- which jointly host these top theater kudos -- and one each from the Dramatists Guild, Actors' Equity Assn., United Scenic Artists and the Society of Stage Directors and Choreographers. This committee "determines eligibility for nominations in all awards categories, reviews the rules governing the awards, and appoints the nominating committee. It may, at its discretion, bestow [four] non-competitive Tony Awards: Special Tony Awards and the Regional Theatre Tony Award; as well as Tony Honors for Excellence in the Theatre and the Isabelle Stevenson Award." PLAYBILL

Photos: James Cameron and Sigourney Weaver on "Avatar" set (Fox); "Tyson" poster (Sony Pictures Classics); "The Blind Side" poster (Warner Bros.)

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Tom O'Neil is the author of "Movie Awards," "The Emmys" and "The Grammys" (Penguin Putnam Books) and has reported on showbiz awards for the L.A. Times, New York Times, Washington Post, Variety, TV Guide, Reader's Digest and other major media. In 1999, he launched GoldDerby.com, the first website devoted to predicting all top showbiz awards. It was acquired by the Los Angeles Times in November 2005 and folded into the launch of TheEnvelope.com.

O'Neil's special interest is how the awards affect each other, particularly the top film prizes that can be viewed as one single gold derby with the Oscars as the finish line. Consider what happened to "Chariots of Fire," for example. In 1981, it emerged from obscurity to win awards at the Cannes Film Festival and the National Board of Review, then fell behind "Reds" and "Atlantic City" at the film critics' awards and Golden Globes, then trotted ahead as best-picture champ at the Oscars. Contact O'Neil: GoldDerby@gmail.com.

• Only 15 of the 89 feature-length documentaries eligible made it onto the academy's long list that will now be winnowed down to a final five by members of the documentary branch. Among those widely distributed docs that failed to make the cut were Oscar champ Michael Moore's ("Bowling for Columbine") latest effort "Capitalism: A Love Story" -- which merited just 61 at Metacritic -- as well as "The September Issue" (MC score of 69), Oscar winner Davis Guggenheim's ("An Inconvenient Truth") rock doc "It Might Get Loud" (MC score of 70), "Anvil! The Story of Anvil" (MC score of 82) and "Tyson" (MC score of 83). Each of the sub-themes of those snubbed docs remains represented in the race with the social activism of "Food, Inc." (MC score of 80), fashion folk and "Valentino: The Last Emperor" (MC score of 68), entertainment and the Broadway-based "Every Little Step" (score of 76) and sports icons and "Facing Ali." AMPAS

• Leading off the Oscarologists weighing in on the documentary semifinalists was Steve Pond (THE ODDS) who said, "The fact that the voters have to see every movie before voting throws many of the usual yardsticks (visibility, momentum, popularity) out the window." Anne Thomspon (THOMPSON ON HOLLYWOOD) noted, "Only six of the fifteen films were theatrically released, which suggests that the committee is trying to help movies that still need a boost." Dave Karger (ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY) observed, "For the most part, though, it’s a good group of films. After ignoring Bill Maher’s 'Religulous' last year, the documentary branch has included several commercially successful entries." And Jeff Wells (HOLLYWOOD ELSEWHERE) bemoaned the exclusion of "Anvil," calling the movie "one of '09's most offbeat and emotionally engaging (one could even apply the term 'heart-warming') docs."

• In his sneak peek at the new poster for "Precious," Greg Ellwood says that, "the studio has already released two impressive posters for the picture, but until now they had not put star Gabby Sidibe front and center in the film's print campaign." As Greg notes, "Featuring some of the top critical notices 'Precious' has already received, the poster will not only grab the attention of Academy and Guild voters, but accurately places it as a prestige picture moviegoers who only see three to four films a year can't miss." HIT FIX

• Can Gabby really win best actress at the Academy Awards? In his comprehensive review of the race Glenn Whipp reminds Oscar watchers, "Almost every time a member of the Academy's old guard goes against a relative newcomer in the lead actress category, the Oscar goes to the ingenue." VARIETY

• Michael Cieply does a crackerjack job reporting on the back story of how "Crazy Heart" came to the forefront this awards season. Among the fascinating tidbits unearthed by Michael: "The tale had its turning point in July in Sun Valley, Idaho. While moguls were pondering the future of content and the impact of Google at their annual retreat, Jeff Berg, chairman of International Creative Management, was hounding Thomas E. Dooley, chief financial officer of Viacom, over the fate of 'Crazy Heart,' which had been made for about $7 million by Country Music Television, a unit of Viacom. That media conglomerate’s Paramount Pictures division had the right to distribute the film, but it was not interested. Mr. Berg, whose agency represents the movie’s writer and director, Scott Cooper, wanted permission from Mr. Dooley to sell it to a rival, lest the picture wind up in a scrap heap of straight-to-video releases. He got it, clearing the way for a purchase by Fox Searchlight Pictures, a division of the giant News Corporation. " NEW YORK TIMES

• Gold Derby reported Wednesday that "An Education" aims to enter the Golden Globes race as a comedy/musical film. However, a source for Sony Pictures Classics says "An Education" has asked the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. for a drama classification.

• Our formidable forums moderator Chris "Boomer" Beachum joins a distinguished team of formidable pundits from USA Today, Entertainment Weekly and the Hollywood Reporter while predicting who'll be nominated for the Screen Actors' Guild TV awards. He foresees nominations for Jim Parsons ("The Big Bang Theory"), Toni Collette ("United States of Tara") and Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad"). BACK STAGE

• "Lost" can be found on Tuesday nights when it returns to the ABC lineup for its sixth and final season beginning Feb. 2. A one-hour recap will air before the two-hour season premiere. "Lost " won the Emmy for best drama series for its first season in 2006, failed to compete for the next two seasons, and lost its last two bids to "Mad Men."

• Native son Werner Herzog has been named as jury president for the diamond anniversary edition of the Berlin film festival next February. The celebrated filmmaker has contended at Berlin twice: winning the Silver Bear in 1968 for best first film for "Signs of Life" and again in 1979 with "Nosferatu." In making the announcement, the festival lauded Herzog: "As one of the most significant personalities of New German Cinema, he has influenced an entire generation of filmmakers." BERLINALE

• Todd Martens tells us that, "Without a hit or even an album, Nick Jonas is getting a prime-time, Grammy-endorsed unveiling for his new band, Nick Jonas and the Administration. Though it won't be nominated for an award at the 2010 edition of the gala, the solo outing from Nick has been added to the Recording Academy's Dec. 2  CBS special in which the 2010 Grammy noms will be revealed." POP & HISS

Photos: "Capitalism: A Love Story" poster (Overture);  "Crazy Heart" poster (Fox Searchlight); "Lost" logo (ABC)

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BEST PICTURE: "Nine" finally unspooled at industry screenings in New York and Los Angeles for the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. and the junket media. Nearly all of the principal cast members (Daniel Day-Lewis, Marion Cotillard, Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench, Kate Hudson, Nicole Kidman) plus director Rob Marshall attended the Q&A screening for the Screen Actors Guild in New York. For now there's a lid on reviews while an embargo is in place.

If "Nine" doesn't prove to be a strong best picture contender for Weinstein Co., then maybe "Inglourious Basterds" will emerge as a front-runner? Or maybe not. When Gold Derby heard how popular it is with Golden Globe voters and predicted it would win best picture at the Oscars, it triggered an uproar in the blogosphere.

One clear front-runner, "Precious," just proved to a real winner at the box office during its second week of release. "It was a fantastic expansion, which Lionsgate widened from 18 to 174 theaters," Gitesh Pandya of BoxOfficeGuru.com reports to Gold Derby. "Going into the weekend, I thought it had a shot at breaking into the top five despite a very limited release, and it shot up to No. 3." Its $5.9-million take, he said, was "fantastic."

Meantime, all Oscar voters just received the following DVDs: "(500) Days of Summer," "Bright Star" and "Young Victoria." Previously, all members of the academy received "An Education" and "The Messenger" (Nov. 16), "Coco Before Chanel," "Whatever Works" and "The Damned United" (Oct. 26) and "Anvil" (Oct. 8).

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Now that it looks like the list of nominees will expand from the usual three to five, the race for best animated feature is getting truly animated. "Fantastic Mr. Fox" just opened last weekend in only four theaters, but reaped an impressive $337,000 after also scoring socko reviews (88 score at Metacritic). EW's Dave Karger and I both believe it's now a strong contender for a nom, but that means it must dislodge one of these five current faves: "Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs," "Coraline," "Ponyo," "Princess and the Frog" or "Up."

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Oscarcast co-host Alec Baldwin has emerged as a serious contender for best supporting actor, according to early buzz for "It's Complicated." The Nancy Meyers comedy hasn't screened to media yet, but it's been viewed by some key industry players and we hear that Baldwin steals the show. Hmmm … can he become the first Oscar host ever to win on ceremony night? Prospects of a nomination for him are certainly brightening. Read more here.

Woody Harrelson's Oscar hopes appear brighter too, thanks to positive reax to his playful performance as a bully soldier in "The Messenger," which opened in theaters last weekend. There's also buzz for Ben Foster in the lead race, but Woody grandstands over him throughout much of the film.

Photo: Weinstein Co.

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My, my, I'm going to have to cook up a huge batch of crow to serve so many of my colleagues who responded to my prediction that "Inglourious Basterds" will win the Oscar for best picture by hurling weapons of mass destruction.

Some of them not only freaked out over my "Basterds" call, they went all ballistic. Granted, many like to dismiss anything I say because of, ahem, a few bad calls in the past like "Sweeney Todd" or "Dreamgirls." OK, OK, but I've made some bold, prescient ones too. Let me remind you that I was the first pundit on the planet to declare that "Crash" could win best picture. Read my warning here, which was posted in early January 2006 prior to the Golden Globes, where "Crash" wasn't even nominated.

Oh yeah, and when 95% of my colleagues forecast Julie Christie ("Away From Her") would win best actress, wasn't I one of the few brave souls correctly forecasting Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose")? Today, most Oscarologists will claim that they predicted Cotillard, but that's just another case of convenient prognosticator amnesia, an epidemic disease. Look back through Envelope's Buzzmeter to see who really did so. You'll notice that nearly all of the pundits named in this blog article slamming me picked Christie over Cotillard.

Over at The Wrap, under the headline "'Basterds' a Best-Pic Winner? Nope," Steve Pond gives me a good rappin', deconstructing my prediction, then adding, "Sorry, Tom. I’m not buying this one."

Too bad, Steve. This prediction is going for a sale price right now. You'll regret this later ... when the derby outcome will cost you and your prognosticator reputation dearly.

Jeff Wells pooh-poohs the whole thing at Hollywood-Elsewhere: "Trust me -- this won't happen. We're living in anxious, racially attuned, recession-afflicted times, and that means 'Up In The Air' -- the only film by my measure that has that dignified, settled, summing-up-everyone-and-everything vibe -- or 'Invictus' will take it. Enjoyable as it is and admired in some quarters, there is no discernible echo and spiritual after-effect in 'Inglorious Basterds' …. I'm not alone in this thinking. In Contention's Kris Tapley has 'Basterds' and director-writer Quentin Tarantino ranked pretty far down."

Yes, that's true. Kris not only doesn't list "Basterds" or Tarantino in his predix, but he ranks both way down on his lists of possibilities, in the fourth tier of potential nominees, down below "Bright Star" and "The Last Station." Scott Feinberg (And The Winner Is...) is so proud of the fact that his view is the same as Kris' that he actually boasts about it in the comments section of Jeff Wells' post! Tisk, tisk, tisk.

Over in the comments section of InContention.com, Guy Lodge disses me too: "Tom O’Neil has suggested 'Basterds' can win best picture, and he's probably just spinning his wheels. I’ll gladly eat my hat if that happens."

OK, so that means I should fry up an old fedora to serve Guy on the side with his crow come March 7. Gotta remember that.

Greg Ellwood will get a side order of extra-stinky Limburger for writing this about my "Basterds" predix at HitFix: "There are more holes in his theory than a slice of swiss cheese you'd get with a deli sandwich at Canters on Fairfax. This prognosticator is a big fan of "Basterds," but to say it's going to win at this point is just a nice reach for page views.  Remember 'Sweeney Todd,' Tom?"

Yes, Greg, I remember my bum "Sweeney Todd" call well. Why don't you flag some of my brilliant early calls like "Crash," eh? Once, during a chitchat we had, you claimed that someone else -- Pete Hammond, you said -- sounded the "Crash" warning in an article earlier than I did. Really? As I told you then, I don't think so. Send me the link to that or to anyone else who blasted that trumpet before me. I'd like to read it … while I crank up my stove and prepare some yummy supper for you … and our cyber comrades. Bring a good appetite to the pity party.

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Illustration by Ty Wilson

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• Gold Derby has learned "A Serious Man" is aiming to enter the Golden Globes race in the comedy/musical classification where it will vie for best picture nods against such other strong rivals as "(500) Days of Summer," "It's Complicated," "Julie & Julia" and "Nine." There was speculation that "Inglourious Basterds" and "Up in the Air" may also shoot for the comedy classification, but they're both going for drama. (Note: Gold Derby incorrectly reported in an earlier draft of this blog article that "An Education" is aiming for comedy/musical slots, but it is going for drama.) Final determinations will be made by the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. qualification committee.

• The prime-time Emmy Awards return to NBC for the first time in four years next Aug. 29. The 62nd edition of the kudos -- which usually kick off the fall TV season -- are airing early to accommodate the Peacock's commitment to Sunday night football. While August may be a low viewership month in general, the last go-round by NBC in 2006 also aired in the summer doldrums yet ranks as the highest rated of the last four Emmycasts. That is because the other nets in the rotating wheel have opted to schedule the awards show in September opposite an NFL game on NBC. The 2010 telecast marks the end of the current broadcast contract.

• Joining first-time producers Bill Mechanic and Adam Shankman on the Oscarcast will be another Oscar newbie -- British director Hamish Hamilton who has helmed both the stateside and European versions of the MTV VMAs. In making the announcement Shankman said, “Hamish is a first-rate live-show director who will bring enthusiasm, experience and a fresh eye to the table. He”s also a master of working with all of the latest technology in television production, which speaks to the kind of cutting-edge show Bill and I are planning." Hamilton has a busy few months ahead as he will also be staging the half-time show for the Super Bowl in February. AMPAS

• According to Steve Pond, there are many Paul Revere wannabes among Oscarcast alumni bemoaning the coming invasion of the Brits. Says Steve, "Hamilton, who has directed numerous shows in the U.S over the past few years, generally brings his entire team of assistant and associate directors and camera operators from England. At the Oscars, staffers expect him to bring in his 'vision mixer' -- a British term for a job that doesn’t exist in the United States, a combination director/technical director who chooses most of the camera shots -- as well his main AD and a few other ADs and cameramen." As Steve explains, "One reason for anger among staffers is that American variety-show workers find it very difficult to obtain visas to work in the U.K. 'We’ll give all of his people visas, but it’s not reciprocal,' says a disgruntled awards-show vet. 'They’re going down a really terrible path, and a lot of people are angry.'" THE ODDS

• Fox Searchlight just shipped the DVD screener of "(500) Days of Summer" to all Oscar voters as well as members of the producers' and writers' guilds. Yesterday and today voters received "Bright Star" and "Young Victoria" too. Previously, all members of the academy received "An Education" and "The Messenger" (Nov. 16), "Coco Before Chanel," "Whatever Works" and "The Damned United" (Oct. 26) and "Anvil" (Oct. 8). Fox Searchlight studio will ship "Crazy Heart" after Thanksgiving.

• The PGA will honor "Precious" with the Stanley Kramer award at its 21st annual awards on Jan. 24. The kudo -- named for the Hollywood maverick behind such ground-breaking pictures such as "High Noon" and "The Defiant Ones" -- was established in 2002 "to honor a motion picture, television program, studio, network, producer, executive or other individual entity whose work illuminates provocative social issues in an accessible and elevating fashion." Previous recipients include "Milk," "The Great Debaters," "An Inconvenient Truth," "Good Night, and Good Luck," "Hotel Rwanda," "Innocent Voices," "In America," "Antwone Fisher" and "I Am Sam." The PGA cited "Precious" as "a vibrant, honest and resoundingly hopeful film about the human capacity to grow and overcome." PGA

• Roger Friedman thinks that of all the lovely ladies gracing "Nine," just two will figure in the Oscar races: "It does seem as though Marion Cotillard will wind up in the lead actress category, alongside Meryl Streep, Gabby Sidibe, Carey Mulligan, and Helen Mirren, maybe. Penelope Cruz goes into Supporting, with Patricia Clarkson, Mo’Nique, Julianne Moore, and maybe Diane Kruger or Mariah Carey." SHOWBIZ 411

• TCM will kick off the inaugural Classic Film Festival next April 22 with a restored print of the 1954 version of "A Star is Born." This musical remake of the 1937 drama marked one of the all-time great screen comebacks with Judy Garland proving herself a triple threat with her acting, singing and dancing. So sure was the academy that she would win the lead actress Oscar that they set up a television camera in Judy's hospital room where she was resting after having given birth to son Joey just days before. However, it was Grace Kelly's name that was announced, for her role as the dutiful wife to an alcoholic actor (Bing Crosby) in "The Country Girl."  TCM

Photos, from top: "A Serious Man" poster (Focus Features); Oscar statues (AMPAS);  "Precious" poster (Lionsgate)

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Usually, the Emmy ceremony occurs in mid-September so that the TV industry can salute the best of last season's programs on the eve of new TV season launch. However, telecaster NBC plans to move the date back to Sunday, Aug. 29 to get out of the way of its Sunday football programming in September.

TV viewership is usually low in late August, but the peacock web drew surprisingly decent viewership — 16.2 million — when it last aired the Emmycast in 2006 and pushed it back to August.

The awardcast was also aired in August in these years, drawing good Nielsens: 1992 (20 million viewers), 1991 (18.5 million) and 1988 (15 million).

Photo: ATAS

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As all Oscarologists know, the movie that wins best picture usually wins best director too, and the recipient of that prize is usually the same person who claims the top honor from the Directors Guild of America.

At this point in the derby, we don't have an obvious DGA front-runner. "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" has major Oscar buzz for best picture, but it's unlikely that DGA members will consider it a spectacular directorial achievement. Lee Daniels may be nominated for his impressive dramatic achievement on celluloid, yes, but guild members usually look for more production dazzle.

Given his high Cool Factor and the critical and commercial success ($120 million U.S.; $300 million worldwide) of "Inglourious Basterds," it's likely that Quentin Tarantino will nab a bid on Jan. 7. How can guild members resist voting for the Hollywood hipster — who's never won DGA — when rivals are likely to be refried beans like Clint Eastwood ("Invictus") and Peter Jackson ("The Lovely Bones")? Rob Marshall won DGA for "Chicago" (he lost the Oscar to Roman Polanski for "The Pianist"), but buzz for "Nine" seems to be quieting a bit. Jason Reitman wasn't nominated by DGA for "Juno," but he might finally prevail with a bid, maybe even a win, if "Up in the Air" gets serious best picture momentum. It will be nominated at the Oscars, but can it win? Hmmm. Kathryn Bigelow ("The Hurt Locker") might be nommed at DGA, but women rarely triumph at these ole boys' clubs.

Therefore, by process of elimination, it looks like Tarantino is the likely front-runner, which means "Inglourious Basterds" is probably ahead for the top Oscars too. DGA will have hiked influence over the Oscars this year since there's a major gap — five weeks — between the kudos this year. DGA will be bestowed Jan. 30, the Oscars on March 7. That's all the more time for the DGA victory to impact the Academy Awards, where "Basterds" will probably score at least seven or eight nominations: best picture, director, screenplay, supporting actor (Christoph Waltz), art direction, costumes, cinematography, maybe film editing. Read more about the strong shot "Basterds" has at the Oscars here.

• Oscar winner Peter Jackson ("The Lord of the Rings") tells Iain Blair that test audiences demanded a more gruesome ending for one character in the upcoming "The Lovely Bones." As Peter explains, "We got a lot of people telling us that they were disappointed with this death scene, as they wanted him to see [the character] in agony and suffer a lot more. They just weren't satisfied." The solution, says Jackson, was to "go back to the editing room and use digital effects to add shots where [the character] bounces against the cliff on the way down. We had to create a whole suffering death scene just to give people the satisfaction they needed." And as for the awards prospects of the picture, Peter admits, "I do feel I don't need to prove anything anymore. But winning and even being nominated for an Oscar is still an enormous privilege and big thrill. The great thing about having won is that you do feel, no matter what happens in your career now, you've always got that Oscar and it's a nice thing to wake up to in the morning and go to the office and see them sitting there on the shelf." REUTERS

• Oscar winner Jennifer Hudson ("Dreamgirls") has inked a deal to headline "Winnie" -- a biopic of the controversial Winnie Mandela, ex-wife of South African leader Nelson Mandela. The production will be directed by Darrell Roodt, whose 2004 film "Yesterday" lost the foreign film Oscar to "The Sea Inside." As Michael Fleming observes, "She has been depicted as the mother and wife who was a steadfast supporter of her activist husband and who was jailed herself for campaigning for his release and fighting against apartheid. Her image was subsequently tarnished by association with a bodyguard who murdered a 14-year old alleged informer, and she was later convicted of fraud." Hudson says, "Winnie Mandela is a complex and extraordinary woman and I’m honored to be the actress asked to portray her. This is a powerful part of history that should be told." VARIETY

• Brad Brevet addresses the upcoming release map of "The Road." He writes, "Recent rumors stated its wide release was whittled down to theaters in only New York and Los Angeles, so I did a quick check and it appears it's going to be hitting 31 markets on Nov. 25. Weinstein has also confirmed an additional rollout, but haven't confirmed markets." ROPE OF SILICON

• Sasha Stone takes a closer look at the upcoming National Board of Review awards and foresees "a hodgepodge of types of films" making the top 10. Sasha says these half-dozen films will be on the list: "The Hurt Locker" (maybe for the win), "Precious," "An Education," "Up in the Air," "Nine," and "Invictus" (if they see it in time, which they should). Beyond that, Sasha has another eight entries that could make the cut as well as three films -- "In the Loop," "District 9" and "The Messenger" -- on her wish list. And the one film that is "definitely not their thing" -- "Avatar." AWARDS DAILY

• And Dave Karger has an interesting angle on the odds of "Avatar" making it into the top 10 at the Oscars -- the reaction of voters watching at-home screeners of the big-screen fantasy. As Dave says, "When I watched a 30-minute preview of the film a few months ago, Cameron’s gorgeous 3-D visuals were certainly the most impressive aspect of the production. But the studio can’t force all 6,000-plus Academy members to show up at a theater to watch it." He notes that Fox has "not announced if and when they’ll be sending out 'for your consideration' DVDs that will, of course, only feature two of the film’s three dimension." ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY

• Pete Hammond is quite enthused about the last Oscar entry of the year -- the Dec. 30 release of "The Loss of a Teardrop Diamond," which is directed by Jodie Markell from Tennessee Williams' unproduced 1950s screenplay. As he notes, "Even though Williams died in 1983, he is still eligible for posthumous consideration in the original screenplay category. The filmmakers are also hoping for some attention in the acting categories, particularly for lead actress Bryce Dallas Howard and supporting actress Ellen Burstyn." Pete says, "In that regard they plan a series of events and retrospectives to drum up attention for the little indie release, including a Museum of the Moving Image series Dec. 5-13 (at IFC Center) called 'Tennessee Williams on Film,' a panel discussion at Times Center in New York City with the stars on Dec. 9, and a Dec. 9 American Cinematheque-sponsored West Coast retrospective at the Egyptian featuring screenings of 'Cat on a Hot Tin Roof' and 'Suddenly Last Summer.'" NOTES ON A SEASON

• Paul McCartney has been named the third recipient -- after Paul Simon and Stevie Wonder -- of the Library of Congress Gershwin Prize for Popular Song. As per the official website, "The prize commemorates George and Ira Gershwin, the legendary American songwriting team whose extensive manuscript collections reside in the Library of Congress. The prize is awarded to musicians whose lifetime contributions in the field of popular song exemplify the standard of excellence associated with the Gershwins." Says Librarian of Congress James H. Billington, who made the selection: "It is hard to think of another performer and composer who has had a more indelible and transformative effect on popular song and music of several different genres than Paul McCartney." LIBRARY OF CONGRESS

• While Paul McCartney and the rest of the Fab Four won best new artists at the 1964 Grammys, Melinda Newman reports that Lady Gaga isn't eligible to contend for that honor at this year's awards. Says Melinda, "because her No. 1 hit 'Just Dance' received a nomination for dance recording for the 51st annual Grammys (last year), she is not eligible for new artist, according to Grammy regulations." And Melinda notes, "Two other possible contenders are also not eligible: Kid Cudi, a Kanye West protege whose 'Day 'n' Nite" took up residence on the Hot 100, did not release an album within the eligibility period (contenders must have an album out, not just singles); and French art rockers Phoenix, who finally broke through this year on their fourth album, one too many to be eligible in the new artist category." VARIETY

• Steve Pond gives his take on the current state of the animated feature race, noting that "nominations in the animated feature category are made by a special Animated Feature Film Award Screening Committee. The committee is open to members from all branches, although apparently about half its members come from the short films and feature animation branch." Says Steve, "If 'Up' and 'Coraline' are the odds-on favorites for two slots, 'Mr. Fox' likely will be facing competition from the likes of 'Ponyo,' Disney's 'The Princess and the Frog' and 'Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs.'" However, he adds, "I just saw a dark-horse candidate last night, though, and I have to say that if I had a vote, 'Mary and Max' would absolutely be one of my five picks, probably right behind 'Up.' The Australian film is twisted and strange and very adult, with deadpan humor and a wonderfully dark narrative." THE ODDS

• "Twilight" star Rob Pattinson may seem like the kind of heartthrob who has it all, but he's missing one thing: the car he drove to the Oscars last year. He told Entertainment Weekly: "I drove to the Oscars in my little old car, which I don't even know where it is anymore. I lost it! . . . .  I borrowed a fancy car for five days and crashed it." IMDB

• Lori Fradkin dishes with Emmy winner Christine Lahti ("Chicago Hope"), who is replacing Oscar champ Marcia Gay Harden ("Pollock") in her Tony-winning role in "God of Carnage." Says Lahti, "I saw actually the first preview a long time ago. It was on my last night in New York on one of my theater trips, which I take a lot, so it was my only chance to see it. And I was floored. I was so impressed by the acting and the play, and there was laughing and I was actually moved by it. And I went by to say hi to Jeff Daniels, who’s a friend. I actually called up my agent a couple days later and said, 'Okay, love the play, have to play that part.'" NEW YORK

Photos, from top:"The Lovely Bones" poster (DreamWorks); "Avatar" poster (Fox); "The Fame"  cover (Streamline)

RELATED POSTS

Gold Derby nuggets: Can 'Star Trek' launch land Oscar nods? | Trio of best song contenders | 'Chuckles' scribe David Lloyd dies

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Quiz: What film ties the record for most Oscar nominations?

Gold Derby nuggets: Inside the Governors Awards | Best actor race heats up | 'Up in the Air' literally

Woody, Woody everywhere: 'The Messenger' and '2012'

'Precious' is truly precious at the box office; $2.5 million is 'remarkable'

Can sly 'Fantastic Mr. Fox' sneak into the Oscars' hen house?

Oscars to arrive late at the 'Precious' party?

Inside track on the Oscars' best actor race

Quiz: Who wrote the most best-picture winners at the Oscars?

Inside track on the Oscars' best picture and best director races

Quiz: What film nabbed the most Oscars without winning best picture?

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.