Two curious creatures emerged from the sea of Independent Spirit nominations: "The Squid and the Whale."

The critically hailed feature was expected to surface in some top categories, but it darn near drowned the competition, reaping 6 noms. Such generous recognition is rich reward for a little indie that was shot in 23 days for only $1.5 million, then taken to the Sundance Film Festival where it enjoyed the ultimate Cinderella experience. Two hefty players picked up distribution rights: Samuel Goldwyn Films and Sony Pictures Entertainment.

But something's fishy.

Photo: "The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada" got buried by the indie competition despite having a notable "For Your Consideration" ad campaign.
(Sony Pictures Classics)

Within the next few days the Golden Globes will announce whether films and TV shows fall into the drama or comedy/musical categories. That prepares everyone for what comes down on Dec. 13 when nominations will be unveiled.

Meantime, there's much drama going on behind the scenes. Producers petitioned the Hollywood Foreign Press Association to have "Hustle & Flow" classified as a comedy/musical. After all, it's loaded with great rap music, eh? But the chief reason they want that classification is so that star Terrence Howard can have an easier time getting nommed. The matchup for best drama actor is an overcrowded smackdown.

Alas, HFPA hustled Howard over to drama. Other borderline films placed there include that other rap pic "Get Rich or Die Tryin'" plus "Shopgirl," "In Her Shoes" and "The Upside of Anger."

Thank gawd Jane Austen's dead. Otherwise, the poor dear and most serious scribe might keel over to hear the news that "Pride & Prejudice" is a comedy. The HFPA has decreed these pics will compete against it: "Breakfast on Pluto," "Broken Flowers," "Elizabethtown," "Kiss Kiss Bang Bang" and "The Squid and the Whale."

Photo: As Elizabeth (Keira Knightley) discovers, Mr. Darcy (Matthew MacFadyen) ain't no laugh a minute.
(Focus Features)

Oh, Patrick Goldstein, you can't be serious! Oscar prognosticating is a "demeaning, nauseatingly superficial ritual"? Oscar blogs and websites transform "the Academy Awards from a celebration of movies into a silly exercise in Ouija board-style predictions and lamebrained analysis"?

Quite the contrary: we bloggers do a brainy, vital, in-depth job of informing people about one of the most important things in the world: showbiz awards.

Stop laughing! Get up off the floor! I can prove it!

If movies, TV and music are valuable reflections of who and what we are as a culture — and they are — then deciding what's best among them is truly invaluable.

In the case of film, media observers consider the Academy Awards so vital that they can't resist piping in with their own views early in the season, thus hoping to influence the decisions of voters we respect the most: members of the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts & Sciences (the people who make movies every day).

Lots of prominent, alternative film awards have sprung up on the calendar in advance of the Oscars as a result. These smaller races have become legs in one big, long gold derby that stretches from December to March — with the Oscars being the finish line.

At the starting gate are four awards bestowed by the most important film critics' groups: L.A., New York, the national society and the broadcast pundits. After U.S. journos pipe in, the foreign press doles out the Golden Globes, which average Americans care about so much that the gala is often the second-highest rated kudocast of the year. Then come trophies bestowed by members of the guilds: actors, writers, directors and producers. Then, finally, there are the Oscars, which always reflect results from those precursor awards.

Tracking the overall derby is Hollywood's — and much of America's — favorite showbiz sport. And it's thrilling to behold. The Kentucky Derby — ha! — is insignificant by comparison. What difference does it make what horse wins a bundle of money for a tycoon none of us knows?

Photo: If Oscar watchers weren't tracking the 1999 film derby closely, they would've missed the dramatic emergence of Hilary Swank at the early critics' awards.
(Killer Films)

Grrrrrrr, as King Kong would say. Fay Wray wasn't nominated against best actress champ Katharine Hepburn ("Morning Glory") at the 1932-1933 Oscars. In fact, the original "King Kong" didn't reap any Academy Award bids. Grrrrrrrrr!

So what makes Oscarologists wonder if Naomi Watts could scale such a lofty award height via a big furry fist in Peter Jackson's remake?

Credit Newsweek's just-published review of an advance, rough-cut screening, which tattles: "Watts, with those honest eyes, is the soul of the film."

What Jackson has added, while doubling the length of the original film, are layers of emotional and psychological depth to the characters and their relationships. This time, desperate starving actress Ann Darrow (Watts) doesn't just lounge around in that big fist screaming, screaming and screaming . She strikes up a spiritual bond with Kong, who appears to lose his heart to her.

It's the classic beauty and the beast love story taken, literally, to new heights. And she appears to want to go along for the ride. "Ann, thinking the rest of her shipmates are dead, comes to depend on Kong for protection," Newsweek reports. "Their relationship is poignantly drawn."

If Watts gets that much chance to show off wide-ranging emotional complexity, she could burst into the Best Actress race with a furry, er, fury.

Quit beating up on poor Premiere magazine! Just because its Oscar list in the newest issue has a few surprises that seem out of sync with current groupthink doesn't mean that a nuclear response is appropriate.

"No 'Matchpoint' Love!" sighs PaulV, one of our forum posters, over the magazine's snub of Woody Allen. Yeah, the slight of that rascal's big comeback pic does seem odd since it was the toast of the Cannes Film Festival where it played out of competition.

Surely, Premiere had reporters there who saw it. But even if they did, Premiere's editors, the ones who really call the shots, probably didn't see the film in May because they were stuck back in Manhattan at 50th and Broadway putting out the mag.

Screenings of "Match Point" for N.Y.- and L.A.-based journos didn't start till a few weeks ago — that's not enough time for reaction to get into the current issue. Weekly magazines like People and Entertainment Weekly can close on a Tuesday night and have copies on newsstands nationwide by Thursday. But monthlies must close at least a month before publication. That's just the bizarre reality of magazine publishing, and there's nothing Premiere can do about it.

That's probably why "The Constant Gardener" scored so high in Premiere's rankings. It was high on every Oscarologist's list a month or more ago. On Premiere's current list, "Gardener" helmer Fernando Meirelles is among its five front-runners for best director, while Woody's not even on the dark horse list.

But take heart. At least Woody's got those "Annie Hall" Oscars for best director and best picture. Poor Rob Marshall. First he gets screwed at the Oscars two years ago when his "Chicago" wins best pic, but he loses out for best director to Roman Polanski.

Now Premiere has Marshall listed among dark horses for best director — even though it's got "Memoirs of a Geisha" up for best pic. I happen to know that Premiere's editor in charge of Oscar coverage, Glenn Kenny, didn't see "Geisha" till two weeks ago because I was with him at the first screening open to NYC journos. So let's cut him some slack; it'll be interesting to see how his next, revised list stacks up.

To check out the full Premiere list and join the heated dish in our forum, click here.

Photo: Premiere magazine released its Oscar first set of hopeful predictions.
(Hachette Filipacchi)

Sing it out! Movie musicals are really back onscreen — and probably at showbiz awards, too.

It wasn't just a "Chicago" thing. Or a "Moulin Rouge!" thing. On Thanksgiving Day I beheld a packed theater of sophisticated New Yorkers gobbling up "Rent" as if it were a jumbo juicy turkey leg.

The Envelope contributor Brandon Gray of Box Office Mojo predicts "Rent" will reap an impressive $15 million in b.o. coin this weekend. Our Oscar Beat blogger Steve Pond recently reported that academy voters were singing "Rent's" praises, too — or at least clapping a lot during a private screening.

Now comes gossip from within the Hollywood Foreign Press Association about Golden Globe voters digging "Rent." That's going to make the Globe race for Best Musical/Comedy Picture all the more competitive, since shoo-ins already include "The Producers" and "Walk the Line."

"Rent" will be going up against some other heavy faves for the three remaining slots: "Mrs. Henderson Presents," "Casanova," "Pride and Prejudice" and "The Family Stone." Also in the running: "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory," "Fun with Dick & Jane," "In Her Shoes, "and "Wallace & Gromit."

Lucky for "Rent"-heads, Globe voters really groove to musicals. Big tuners almost always get nommed and usually win. Except for last year, when "Phantom of the Opera" lost to "Sideways." But that was understandable. "Phantom" was just a ghost of its historic stage production (which is soon to become the longest-running musical in Broadway history) and "Sideways" had been exalted as the Cool Indie of the Year (and deservedly so).

Photo: As a lovestruck drag queen with AIDS, Wilson Jermaine Heredia sings and swings with big-hearted campy abandon in the hit film adaptation of Broadway classic "Rent."
(Sony Pictures)

Psssst! Want a sneak peek into which artists may strike Grammy gold? Check out the VH1 Top 20 Countdown. It's a great cheat sheet. The reason: its music is more mainstream and traditional, which appeals to — ahem — a more mature demographic. (Read Grammy voters.)

At last year's Grammys, many pundits were shocked by John Mayer's upset for Song of the Year. But check out this month-by-month list of VH1 Countdown's most popular music that was compiled by our forums moderator David Schnelwar (nickname "Guru"). CLICK HERE. Zoom in on what was on the list last November — Mayer's "Daughters" got cited 10 times.

Look what else was there — Maroon 5 — which scored an upset for Best New Artist. Well, an upset as far as everyone else was concerned. At GoldDerby, of course, I had predicted that.

I do confess I hadn't foreseen the Mayer jawdropper, although I was delighted because I'm a shameless fan.

"The VH1 Countdown is a 90 percent preview of the Grammy nominations," asserts Schnelwar. "The top Grammy nominees who aren't VH1 favorites are country stars and veterans too old for the VH1 demographic. Otherwise, you see a strong correlation. Look at the Black Eyed Peas. For the past two years they were in the top 10 of VH1's overall, year-end countdown and they were nominated for Best Record both times. The only place I saw Los Lonely Boys get really heavy airplay was on VH1 last year and they were nominated for best record."

Here is this week's VH1 Countdown:

Photo: VH1 and the Grammys have been curiously in sync about Los Lonely Boys, John Mayer, Maroon 5 and Black Eyed Peas.
(Photo Illustration by Tom O'Neil/ The Envelope)

This time he means it: George Clooney will campaign for the best supporting actor Oscar for his role in "Syriana," reports The Envelope exclusively.

Initially, Clooney was positioned to campaign in the supporting race for his role as a bedraggled C.I.A. agent caught up in a U.S. conspiracy over Arab oil. It was clear to his Oscar campaigners and studio reps that the role was his best shot at a statue, since "Syriana" is a big-cast ensemble pic.

But recently Clooney pulled a shockeroo by overruling his peeps and proclaiming his candidacy for top gold.

Now Clooney's Oscar campaign strategy has flip-flopped.

The reason: A studio rep explains, "We've been listening carefully to members of the Screen Actors Guild, National Board of Review, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and to film reviewers. Everyone decided, because this was best for the movie."

One of those reviewers was the Los Angeles Times' Kenneth Turan, who declared that director Stephen Gaghan "fiddles with the norms of studio storytelling in ways both nervy and unnerving, including treating all his stars like supporting players, the better to grapple with one of today's biggest stories, the ramifications of the fight to control the planet's dwindling supply of oil."

It was unlikely that Clooney, with limited screen time, could have squeezed into the crowded best actor category, which is dominated by more than a half-dozen strong front-runners. His chances are vastly improved in the supporting lineup, which seems wide open now.

Since Clooney also has a supporting role in "Good Night, and Good Luck," which he directed, many Oscarologists have been calling this "The Year of Clooney."

"Good Night" is a small pic though, and his role as a TV news chief is less showy emotionally. If blockbusters end up ruling the top races for best picture and director, voters will still have the option to hail Clooney for "Syriana."

It also helps that the role looks like classic Oscar bait, calling upon the handsome matinee star to uglify himself by donning a scruffy beard and packing on 30 pounds.

Photo: Humility could pay off for the "Syriana" star.
(Warner Bros.)

Kelly Rowland wasn't really alone when she announced from the podium at last night's American Music Awards, "I miss my girls!"

Surely, TV viewers and producers of the American Music Awards also missed the other two-thirds of Destiny's Child, which won two trophies — Favorite R&B Group and Album. Rowland accepted solo and tearfully. "Beyoncé and Michelle, wherever you are, I love you so much!" she wept.

Also missing in action were Green Day, Eminem, Black Eyed Peas, R. Kelly and 50 Cent.

That meant there was room for lots of veteran acts to take the stage during the show on ABC.

While it was great seeing the reunited Eurythmics, the Rolling Stones looked juiceless; Cyndi Lauper tried too hard to fit in with the kiddies. The AMAs were so desperate for flashy performances they even let Lindsay Lohan make her singing debut on primetime TV. Wisely, they lined up many loud backup singers behind her to bury her warbling on "Edge of Seventeen."

Wasn't the AMA's recent move to November supposed to solve the problem of absentees?

For decades the American Music Awards had no trouble booking top talent when the kudocast aired in early January, but then the Grammys got tough after losing out to the AMAs in Nielsen ratings.

Allegedly, Grammy chiefs told music A-listers they couldn't perform on the Grammycast in February if they had appeared on Dick Clark's music awards show a month earlier. Suddenly, Britney Spears, 'N Sync, Diddy and Toni Braxton were no longer available to do the AMAs, and the show quickly plummeted in the ratings.

Furious, Clark sued the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences and moved the AMAs to November. That was supposed to solve the talent problem, but apparently it still goes on.

Maybe the AMAs have just lost their luster and momentum. Since winners and nominees are chosen by sampling the opinions of frequent music buyers, they're the equivalent of the People's Choice Awards.

Perhaps the show should just forget trying to look legit by keeping the winners' names a Big Secret. If the AMAs followed the lead of the People's Choice Awards — just tattle ahead of time — then maybe winners would all show up. And perform too.

Who cares that Oprah Winfrey received an honorary award from the International Emmys? Or that she received it from Sen. Hillary Clinton, who looked smashing in pearls and a black dress with sheer shoulders?

But that was the big story, according to most of the clueless journalists backstage with me and my colleagues from The Envelope at the Hilton Hotel in New York on Monday night.

Oprah herself doesn't care much about getting another Emmy. She's already got so many that she refuses to let her weekday chat show be entered into nomination at the Daytime Emmys.

However, check out the lead from the Associated Press report on what happened when world media goliaths gathered to learn who produced the year's best television show: "Oprah Winfrey has received the Founders Award for her international broadcast career and philanthropic initiatives from the International Academy of Television Arts & Sciences."

Gush! Gush! Fawn! Slobber! Phooey!

Nowhere in this report — or most other press accounts, for that matter — was there any real insight into the results of the competitive awards. There were so many shockeroos that Robert Licuria — The Envelope forums moderator from Australia known as "Xanadu" — kept gasping "Oh, my God!" while he and his wife Paula and I stood in the press room backstage and watched the awards ceremony on a monitor.

Take, for example, when the winner was announced for best comedy:

Photo: Canada's Best Comedy winner, "The Newsroom," exposes green-screen phoniness behind the TV scene.
(100 Percent Film & TV)