VH1 Countdown can be an early Grammy tip-off
Psssst! Want a sneak peek into which artists may strike Grammy gold? Check out the VH1 Top 20 Countdown. It's a great cheat sheet. The reason: its music is more mainstream and traditional, which appeals to — ahem — a more mature demographic. (Read Grammy voters.)
At last year's Grammys, many pundits were shocked by John Mayer's upset for Song of the Year. But check out this month-by-month list of VH1 Countdown's most popular music that was compiled by our forums moderator David Schnelwar (nickname "Guru"). CLICK HERE. Zoom in on what was on the list last November — Mayer's "Daughters" got cited 10 times.
Look what else was there — Maroon 5 — which scored an upset for Best New Artist. Well, an upset as far as everyone else was concerned. At GoldDerby, of course, I had predicted that.
I do confess I hadn't foreseen the Mayer jawdropper, although I was delighted because I'm a shameless fan.
"The VH1 Countdown is a 90 percent preview of the Grammy nominations," asserts Schnelwar. "The top Grammy nominees who aren't VH1 favorites are country stars and veterans too old for the VH1 demographic. Otherwise, you see a strong correlation. Look at the Black Eyed Peas. For the past two years they were in the top 10 of VH1's overall, year-end countdown and they were nominated for Best Record both times. The only place I saw Los Lonely Boys get really heavy airplay was on VH1 last year and they were nominated for best record."
Here is this week's VH1 Countdown:
Photo: VH1 and the Grammys have been curiously in sync about Los Lonely Boys, John Mayer, Maroon 5 and Black Eyed Peas.
(Photo Illustration by Tom O'Neil/ The Envelope)
1. "Gold Digger," Kanye West
2. "Because of You," Kelly Clarkson
3. "Photograph," Nickelback
4. "My Humps," Black Eyed Peas
5. "Stickwitu," The Pussycat Dolls
6. "Hung Up," Madonna
7. "Luxurious," Gwen Stefani
8. "Feel Good Inc.," Gorillaz
9. "Good Is Good," Sheryl Crow
10. "Don't Forget About Us," Mariah Carey
11. "I'm Feeling You," Santana (featuring Michelle Branch)
12. "When September Ends," Green Day
13. "Have a Nice Day," Bon Jovi
14. "Shake It Off," Mariah Carey
15. "Don't Bother," Shakira
16. "All These Things That I've Done," The Killers
17. "Music," Leela James
18. "Better Days," Goo Goo Dolls
19. "The Great Divide," Scott Stapp
20. "Pretty Vegas," INXS
The Black Eyed Peas are still strong. Of course, Kanye West, Mariah Carey, Gwen Stefani and Green Day will reap top noms. But what this VH1 list suggests is that there may be a good Grammy surprise coming for Kelly Clarkson, who's only been nominated once before, in a lower category. Nickelback and The Killers could get major recognition, too, when nominations are announced Dec. 8.
