Repeat business at the Oscars
Don't believe cynical Oscar watchers who harrumph, "Oh, Charlize Theron can't possibly win for 'North Country'! She just won two years ago for 'Monster.' Voters have been there, done that!"
In fact, the opposite sometimes seems to be true. Winning an Oscar might actually increase a contender's chance to repeat. Look over a list of past champs and a pattern becomes clear: there's a rough span of time — about a dozen years — when winners can remain academy favorites. After that, some are permitted to hang around the derby track like retired ole pals who might be given one more chance to hit the track in the future if they do something amazing. Otherwise, many prized ole ponies are trotted off to the dinner-theater circuit or else, egads, to the glue factory.
But the fact that past champs often get a good second shot soon after winning the first time is great news for these actors this year: Russell Crowe ("Cinderella Man"), Judi Dench ("Mrs. Henderson Presents"), Jamie Foxx ("Jarhead"), William Hurt ("A History of Violence"), Tommy Lee Jones ("The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada"), Diane Keaton ("The Family Stone"), Shirley MacLaine ("In Her Shoes"), Frances McDormand ("North Country"), Gwyneth Paltrow ("Proof"), Geoffrey Rush ("Munich"), Meryl Streep ("Prime"), Susan Sarandon ("Elizabethtown"), Charlize Theron ("North Country") and Renee Zellweger ("Cinderella Man").
And these directors: Woody Allen ("Match Point"), Ron Howard ("Cinderella Man"), Peter Jackson ("King Kong"), Sam Mendes ("Jarhead"), Steven Spielberg ("Munich") and former "Traffic" screenplay champ Stephen Gaghan ("Syriana").
What are their chances to win again? Statistically speaking, their odds increase if their first win was less than a dozen years ago. There are many exceptions, of course. Thirty-nine years separated Helen Hayes' best actress triumph for "The Sin of Madelon Claudet" (1931) and her Supporting Actress victory for "Airport" (1970). Forty-eight years separated Katharine Hepburn's first Oscar for "Morning Glory (1933) and her fourth for "On Golden Pond" (1981), but in between she won her second and third trophies back to back in 1967 ("Guess Who's Coming to Dinner") and 1968 ("The Lion in Winter"). There was only one decade when The Great Kate fell totally out of Oscar favor — she wasn't nominated during the 1970s.
More typical was the experience of Sally Field, who prevailed for "Norma Rae" in 1979, then five years later discovered that academy members really, really liked her when she claimed a bookend for "Places in the Heart." Field wasn't kidding about being really liked. She went two for two at the Oscars — she never lost. The same thing happened to recent double champ Hilary Swank, who won best actress earlier this year for "Million Dollar Baby," five years (just like Field) after "Boys Don't Cry" and never experienced defeat.
Double victories may seem like a guarantee of superstar status, but not so. Dianne Wiest says that the only boost she ever got out of her twin victories ("Hannah and Her Sisters" in 1986 and "Bullets Over Broadway" in 1994) was free champagne in restaurants for a few weeks after each Oscarcast. Soon after Luise Rainer's double, consecutive wins for "The Great Ziegfeld" in (1936) and "The Good Earth" (1937), her career totally fizzled.
Over all, 36 stars (18 actors, 18 actresses) have won multiple Oscars. Recently, "Streep Fan," a popular poster in our forums, examined the span of time between the actresses' victories and determined that the average gap is about nine and a half years.
Here's the breakdown per star:
Katharine Hepburn 34 years, 1 year, 13 years (48 years)
Ingrid Bergman 12 years, 18 years (30 years)
Bette Davis 3 years
Olivia de Havilland 3 years
Sally Field 5 years
Jane Fonda 7 years
Jodie Foster 3 years
Helen Hayes 39 years
Glenda Jackson 3 years
Jessica Lange 12 years
Vivien Leigh 12 years
Luise Rainer 1 year
Maggie Smith 9 years
Meryl Streep 3 years
Hilary Swank 5 years
Elizabeth Taylor 6 years
Dianne Wiest 9 years
Shelly Winters 6 years
How is this supposed to show Charlize Theron can win another Oscar for North Country? What would be more telling is showing how many ladies won their second Best Actress Oscars for films not nominated for Best Picture - that hasn't happened so often, has it? Swank and Foster benefitted from the fact that their films were huge Oscar favorites, whereas NC can be happy with one or two nominations. Theron is not gonna win another Oscar all by herself, without all-around love for the movie.
Posted by: zutroy | November 08, 2005 at 04:56 AM