Deciphering past derbies for 'Brokeback' odds
Now that we have a clear front-runner for best picture at the Golden Globes and Oscars, what are the odds that "Brokeback Mountain" will hold onto its lead?
In the past 10 gold derbies, there were only four races where one film pony broke away this early and trotted across the finish line: "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" (2003), "A Beautiful Mind" (2001), "American Beauty" (1999) and "Titanic" (1997). "L.A. Confidential" had swept the early critics' awards in 1997, but after its premieres in New York and L.A. on Dec. 14, "Titanic" was charging full steam ahead and looked truly unsinkable.
In 2002, many derby watchers believed Miramax's ballyhoo of "The musical is back!" They considered "Chicago" the favorite for the top Academy Award once it snagged the most Globe nominations (8), but not everyone concurred. At that point "Chicago" hadn't yet been released wide to theaters and hadn't won any precursor kudos. Instead, New York critics opted for "Far from Heaven," Los Angelenos preferred "About Schmidt." "The Hours" certainly posed a threat. After being named best picture by the National Board of Review, it earned the second-most Globe nominations (7), winning best drama picture, which usually foretells the equivalent Oscar. Sure, "Chicago" won the Globe for best comedy/musical picture, but that rarely matches up.
Nowadays many derby watchers have a revisionist view of "Gladiator," which muscled its way to the top at the 2000 awards. Just prior to the Globes, it was tied with "Traffic" for having the most nominations (5), but it had been a summer popcorn pic that most pundits believed had lost its heat as of cold December. On the other hand, "Traffic's" victory as best picture at the New York Film Critics Circle seemed to confirm that 2000 was "The Year of Steven Soderbergh," since he'd also helmed "Eric Brockovich." Besides, "Traffic" felt more important than its rivals too. Momentum behind it was so fierce that I remember producers of "Access Hollywood" whining to me, "Can you puh-lease help us to find a journalist — anybody, we don't care who at this point — who thinks something other than 'Traffic' is going to win best picture at the Globes?!" Indeed, all of GoldDerby.com's gurus were backing "Traffic."
Photo: In December 1998, "Saving Private Ryan" looked unbeatable as best picture.
(DreamWorks)
"I hear that Peter Travers of Rolling Stone is picking 'Gladiator,'" I replied, "but he's the only one I know of." So they chased down Peter for an interview to offset all of the pro-"Traffic" predictions they already had for their Globes segment. How lucky and smart that they did!
In 1995, "Sense and Sensibility" and "Apollo 13" were considered the early front-runners. "Braveheart" only made its triumphant dash in the final weeks of the December-to-March gold derby.
In 1996, "Fargo" was voted best pic by New York critics and Broadcast Film Critics Assn., while L.A. film critics went with "Secrets & Lies." "The English Patient" led with the most Globe nominations (7), but its victory wasn't a foregone conclusion.
So perhaps only two derbies out of the past 10 may have parallels for us.
Last year "The Aviator" looked like it had everything going for it early on: an A-list star (Leonardo DiCaprio) in an epic about Hollywood helmed by an overdue director (Martin Scorsese). When it took off with the most Globe bids (6), it looked like it would inevitably zoom across the Globe and Oscar finish lines. As predicted, it prevailed at the Globes, yes, but it crashed at the Oscars thanks to a surprise knockout from the scrappy latecomer, "Million Dollar Baby."
But even while most pundits agreed that "Aviator" was solidly out front last year at this time, we all knew that "Million Dollar Baby" posed a serious threat. Does any equivalent film loom over the horizon now? "King Kong" could rally if it sustains its strength at the box office thanks to repeat business, but its Oscar hopes are being hurt by industry whining that it didn't bag $100 million this past weekend. "Munich" just received a good response at an academy screening, but so many film critics are disappointed in it that it's hard to imagine "Munich" being boffo at the b.o., as Variety would say.
Perhaps the best parallel is 1998 when "Saving Private Ryan" looked invincible. Just like "Brokeback Mountain," it was voted best picture by the New York and L.A. film critics and it led with the most nominations from the Broadcast Film Critics Assn. "Shakespeare in Love" and "The Truman Show" actually had more bids at the Golden Globes, but only by a nose — six nominations to five. "Saving Private Ryan" still won the Globe for best drama picture, as "Brokeback" is expected to do.
Most pundits didn't take "Shakespeare's" top victory in the corresponding Globe category to heart. As usual, they didn't take comedy seriously.
Hmm.
Now let's take a gander at that Globe contest this year!
Everybody seems to think that the race for best comedy/musical picture will be a cakewalk for "Walk the Line." Hmm again. Can that beat "Brokeback" at the Oscars? It might have an easy time at the Globes where musicals usually win — and "Walk the Line" kind of qualifies. Or, if voters prefer a more traditional musical like past champs "Chicago," "Mouin Rouge!" and "Evita," perhaps they'll opt for "The Producers"? Even if that occurs, it's hard to imagine that film succeeding at the Oscars since "The Producers" doesn't have the same fanatic support that "Chicago" had.
So maybe the surprise winner will pop out among the losers of best drama picture at the Globes, like what happened with "Million Dollar Baby" losing the Globe, but rallying to bag the Oscar. Perhaps in that case, it's "Good Night, and Good Luck" thanks to the Studly Actor-Turned-Director Factor that probably helped Clint Eastwood and "Million Dollar Baby" last year and, before that, Kevin Costner and "Dances with Wolves," etc.
Or perhaps the winner will come out of nowhere like "The Sting" did in 1973, triumphing at the Oscars after not even being nominated at the Globes. This year that sleeper could be "Crash," which has a secret strength that could rally if given a chance.
Or "Brokeback" might just be unbeatable, period. It's very different than "Saving Private Ryan," which had been a summer release. By the time the Oscars finally rolled around, Entertainment Weekly said about "Ryan," "We thought it had won already!"
Brokeback Mountain has so much heart and soul! Whether the foreign press can zero in on the inner workings of mountain country society, regarding sexual attitudes, is hard to say. But the storyline is universal enough, that they would focus on the love story.
I have first hand knowledge of mountain country. I feel BB captured it beautifully! And all involved should know that they accomplished a rare thing. I think Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal should both win oscars. Their performances will be remembered decades from now!
Posted by: AlM | December 29, 2005 at 05:57 PM
My predix? Brokeback Mountain is not going to win either the Globe or the Oscar.
The musical Globe will go to Walk the Line.
The drama Globe and the Oscar will go to Good Night, and Good Luck.
--Michelle
Posted by: MicheBel | December 29, 2005 at 12:49 PM
after seeing it , i thought how will this play in the red states?
will the christian right boycott?
that has yet too happen. mostl likely because the film has four differernt ad campaigns
two appeal to those living in big cities and show only men in the posters. while 2 others have the female characters joining the men. that is also how the tv promos are going.
the studio is puposely misleading people by advoiding the fact that it really a story of love btweeen 2 gay men.there is no denying this..
i would be shock and thrilled if the academy voted it best picture.
right now the compition is Munich, Constant Gardner, Pride and Prejudice Syania, Producers,
meiors of a giesha,king kong Matchpoint and good night good luck
the academy like to award actors turned directors,,hello mr. clooney
here are my predictions as of now
picure will go to Barback Mountain or Munich
other nominated will be Walk the Line, Munich, and King Kong
Actor (Heath has a lock on this one)
competing with Nathan Lane (producers),Cillian Murphy,(Breakfast on Pluto) Phillip Semore Kaufam (capote), and Joaquin Pheonix (Walk the line)
Actress will go to Reese
competing with Keira Knighley (pride), Laura Linley (squid), Lili Lynh (Giesha) Felicity Huffma (Transamerica)
Sup Actor..Clooney gets this
Clooney for (Seriana) Jack Gyllenhall ((BBM),Randy Quiad (BBM), Jack Black (King Kong)
and Bob Hoskins (Mrs Henderson)
sup actress..Mcclaine is due for this (the sentimental favoirite)
competing with Scarlette Johanson (Matchpoint),Catherine Keener (Copote) michelle Williams (BBM), and Michelle Yeoh (giesha)
Orig Story Matchpoint..Woody needs another win)
History of vilence
Crash
Constant Gardner
Seriana
Mathpoint
Direcction..Ang Lee for BBM or Clooney for Goood night Good Luck
competing with
Walk the lIne
Munich
King Kong
Cimetog Kong wins this
King Kong
BBM
Munich
Producers
Geisha
Costumes Kong again
competing with
Walk the line
Producers
Giesha
Munich
Art Direction Kong again
cpmpeting with
Charlie and choc Factory
Giesha
Producers
Pride and Prejudice
Editing...BBM
competing with
Munish
Kong
Giesha
Good night Good Luck
Sound (Kong again)
competing with
War of the worlds
Harry Potter
Producers
BBM
Music Score Walk the line gets this
competing with
Kong
Prodcuers
Munich
BBM
Special Effects..Kong again
Kong
War of rthe Worlds
Batman
Charley and Chocfactory
Sound effects Kong again
competing with
war of words
Charly and Choc factory
Batman
Harry Potter
Adopted Screenplay.BBM Hands down)
The Producers
Munich
BBM
Good Night Good Luck
Walk The Line
Posted by: mountan could win | December 28, 2005 at 08:31 PM
I'm still working my way through the end of year rush of movies, but the few movies that I saw that year where I felt that "that was an incredibly well done and significant movie" were The Constant Gardener and Batman Begins.
I definitely hope I can add Brokeback Mountain and King Kong to that list when I see them next week.
What films will end up being nominated for Best Picture is a different question. Are they the Best Pictures of the year? Or, are eaxh of them just what 16.6%+1 of the Academy thinks Best Picture nominee should be?
Posted by: madprofessah | December 28, 2005 at 09:51 AM
to mazzy: i agree about CONSTANT GARDENER. great performances, and a small fraction of what's really going on out there, and not just in africa, such an easy target. pharmacartels have deep pockets. what do you think will happen when michael moore's SICKO is ever allowed to air? look what has happened to people like tom cruise, steve mcqueen, steven seagall, et al, when they've spoken out...havent seen MUNICH yet because it hasnt come out yet around here...
Posted by: teri | December 22, 2005 at 12:13 PM
I haven't seen Brokeback Mountain yet, or for that matter Good Night and Good Luck, or North COuntry. But I find it depressing that The Constant gardner is getting so little comment and virtually nothing for Pride and Prejudice. I have seen Munich and I cannot believe that this bloated and underdone epic is in the running, given how many truly beautiful films have come out this year. Even the latest Harry Potter installment, shile not likely to garner too much attention, was a better film than Munich. And what about North Country or Woody Allen's come-back triumph, Match Point?
Is box office performance and the ubiquitous "buzz" really all that counts anymore?
Posted by: Mazzy Friber | December 22, 2005 at 08:36 AM
this year is the best one i've seen in many years with so many great films. BBM, Munich, GB&GL, Syriana, King Kong, MOAG, WTL, The S&TW, The New World, The Producers, all are great films in their own way with brilliant directors at the helm. what i dont want to see is The History of Violence, and esp The Constant Gardener and Crash overlooked. with so many great films in one year, these last two were among the best. most of these films had something important to say. a relief to see in this burgeoning world of merger between church and state, "family values" as defined by the US leader..so glad to be a film fan!!
Posted by: teri | December 21, 2005 at 02:39 PM
QUOTE:---------is a beautiful, stirring, stunning movie. The acting, directing, photography are all magnificent and the scoring is haunting. QUOTE
I would use the exact same words to describe "The Constant Gardener". I have not seen "Brokeback" yet.....but like another poster said......I did get the ""Best Picture shivers""
after seeing "Gardener". And I have yet to see a film this year which has moved me as much.
It is also a film which I have now seen twice.....and it actually was better the second time. I have come to appreciate even more the technical artistry and brilliant performance by Fiennes.
Posted by: nancy | December 20, 2005 at 07:29 PM
I don't think theres another picture that can beat Brokeback Mountain. And I've seen quite a few of them. I have not returned to a theater and seen a movie twice since "Titanic" and I plan on seeing BM again.
Brokeback Mountain is a beautiful, stirring, stunning movie. The acting, directing, photography are all magnificent and the scoring is haunting. Thats the kind of film that wins Oscars. I hope that once it goes into wider release it finds an audience that appreciates fine moviemaking regardless of the subject matter. I mean even though its been tagged "the gay cowboy movie", many people can relate to its themes of love, regret, and loss.
My instincts are pretty good when it comes to Oscars. The only time in the past 10 years my jaw dropped was when "SIL" beat out "Ryan" for Best Picture.
Posted by: Ricky0101 | December 20, 2005 at 02:00 PM
In being an Oscar watcher for several years, I think the steam that Brokeback Mountain has achieved to the Oscars is telling, and a different situation than any of the other "non-four" juggernauts Tom describes. But despite the fact that it seems to be attracting a mainstream audience, the only thing that still could hinder its chances at actually winning Best Pic at the Oscars (it will definitely be nominated, the Academy is not foolish enough not to, just to show that it "avant garde" regardless of if it really is or isn't (I personally think it isn't)) is its subject matter.
I saw Brokeback Mountain and loved it. I admit I haven't seen a lot of the Oscar contenders as of yet, but the only thing that even comes close in my mind thus far is A History of Violence.
Posted by: GChin | December 20, 2005 at 07:56 AM
Brokeback was really a disappointing film for me, other than Jake Gyllenhaal, i didnt get the Best Picture shiver that I got from Million Dollar Baby or Aviator, American Beauty, A Beautiful Mind, etc...
I did get that earlier this year though, when I saw The Constant Gardener!
As a Gay man, I was moved more by that than BM.
Posted by: Jesse Escobar | December 19, 2005 at 09:34 PM
The Brokeback juggernaut isn't going to be stopped. This one has way too much appeal to too many people in Hollywood. This movie winning over mainstream approval could be a pivotal moment in gay culture. An Oscar as best Picture puts it on the map and in people's faces.
We're here, we're queer - go see our movie.
P.S. Enough with the Braveheart thing. It was a one time blip.
Posted by: TorontoTom | December 19, 2005 at 05:50 PM