Sure, "Brokeback Mountain" looks like a shoo-in to win best drama picture at the Golden Globes, but George Clooney could easily win the directors' award. Globe voters often opt for celebrity helmers just like last year when Clint Eastwood won best director even though "The Aviator" soared off with the laurels for best drama picture and actor (Leonardo DiCaprio). The same thing launched Mel Gibson's "Braveheart" in 1995. Poor Ang Lee's "Sense and Sensibility" had won the Globe for best drama picture that year, but Gibson snagged the director's prize. His "Braveheart" troops ambushed the Oscars next. Of course, Clooney is already favored to win the supporting actor Globe for "Syriana," but that doesn't mean anything. Joan Plowright and Sigourney Weaver are among the stars who've scored double victories in the past.

Even if Clooney only wins the Globe for best supporting actor and fails to reap the director's trophy on Jan. 16, he could still win the Directors Guild of America award 12 days later and, as every Oscarologist knows, that changes everything. Dark storm clouds would suddenly gather over "Brokeback Mountain."

Usually the helmer who wins DGA claims the corresponding award on Oscar night and the movie that wins best director usually claims the best picture prize, too.

Clooney is a serious DGA front-runner for several reasons:

1. Actors almost always win. Even Ron Howard — once little Opie from "The Andy Griffith Show" — was hailed by guild members as best director for "Apollo 13" despite the fact that he wasn't even nominated at the 1995 Oscars. There are many thesps who've prevailed at both awards contests: Robert Redford ("Ordinary People," 1980), Warren Beatty, ("Reds," 1981), Kevin Costner ("Dances with Wolves," 1990) and Clint Eastwood ("Unforgiven," 1992; "Million Dollar Baby," 2004). The only Oscar-winning actor-turned-director who lost at DGA was Mel Gibson ("Braveheart," 1995), but that doesn't count because he lost to another actor — Ron Howard.

"I would have crawled over broken glass to be in it," Frank Langella tells us about "Good Night, and Good Luck," the Golden Globe nominee for best drama picture in which he portrays crusty CBS czar Bill Paley. Langella's role is the moral pivot of the plot. As Edward R. Murrow (David Strathairn) goes after Commie-hunter Sen. Joe McCarthy, Paley must decide whether his network should stand up for its convictions or buckle under pressure from advertisers. "The message of the film to me is very simple," he tells The Envelope, "that the most American thing you can do is speak your mind."

Below is the transcript of Frank Langella's recent chatroom discussion with our forum posters:

Ol' Blue Eyes: Hello, Mr. Langella.
AndreaWeaver: Hi Frank
Frank Langella: Thanks. Great to be here.
Tom O'Neil: Frank, let's start by you telling us how you researched the role of Bill Paley in "Good Night, and Good Luck."
Frank Langella: When George Clooney sent the script to me, I immediately said 'yes.' Then GC sent me a book called "In All His Glory" by Sally Bedell Smith, a biography on Paley.
Frank Langella: I then found a copy of Paley's autobiography called "As It Happened." Those were my chief research.
Tom O'Neil: Did you ever meet Paley?
Frank Langella: No. I was 14 or 15 of the time of the actual event. I did interview as many people as I could who had met Paley before — like Mike Wallace.
isidro: How was the experience working with George Clooney ?
Frank Langella: Working with GC was about as close to a perfect experience an actor can have with a director. GC #1 is an actor, #2 he has an egalitarian nature. The input of all on set is important to the success of the film. He listened to everyone, curious to know all input ,but he always made the final decision. GC would let us know early on how much he trusted us as actors.
BTN: Were the scenes straight out of history or were there dramatic embellishments for the Paley scenes?
Frank Langella: The scenes in the film were not taken from transcripts, biographies or historical docs. The lines were written by Grant Heslov and GC. In all of the research, however, it was clear that it was accurate.
Frank Langella: The scene where Paley tells Murrow the show was moving from Tuesday night to Sunday afternoon was absolutely accurate. Paley was very much about CBS and news not being slanted or created by reporters. Paley believed that impartiality, the simple act of reporting, was all that was needed from a major TV network. He didn't want editorializing.
Frank Langella: Just imagine what the impact was in 1950s. Paley, Sarnoff. It certainly wasn't as it is today. That's why the film works so well.

Photo: Film critics called Langella's portrayal of CBS titan Bill Paley "majesterial."
(Warner Independent)

Oh my head hurts trying to figure out the race for best drama actor at the Globes. Sure, it looks, at first glance, like a lavender tossup: take your pick between gay roles played by, to use hipster's written slang, "str8" chaps Heath Ledger ("Brokeback Mountain") and Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Capote"). Let's get to that discussion in a moment. Meantime, the presence of Terrence Howard ("Hustle & Flow") makes me reach for Advil.

Because Howard has a real — albeit modest — chance of winning. There's nothing Globe voters love more than hailing the Hot New Star during his or her "moment." It's their job. Voters, after all, are foreign journos who are intensely searching for breaking news and trends to trumpet in their publications back in Oslo, Cairo and Buenos Aires. They like African Americans (Denzel Washington won best drama actor for "The Hurricane") and art-house actors. Let's recall, for example, that the star of the arty film "Shine," Geoffrey Rush, beat Ralph Fiennes for best drama actor of 1996 even though Fiennes appeared in best picture winner "The English Patient" and was considered a red-hot property after breaking out big time three years earlier in "Schindler's List." But there was so much new buzz surrounding Rush in 1996 that it seemed to be his moment, so he won. Thus the question now: What about Howard?

HFPA members have witnessed his ascendancy up close. Howard was not among the cast members sent by producers to chat with voters when "Crash" held its HFPA press conference early this year. "He wasn't yet Terrence Howard, if you know what I mean," notes an inside source.

Photo: Peter Travers of Rolling Stone magazine believes Heath Ledger is riding high in the best actor saddle at the Globes, but beware: There might be an ambush on awards night.
(Focus Features)

Tomorrow, at last, when "Match Point" opens in theaters we will discover if moviegoers shall embrace Woody Allen's big comeback as enthusiastically as critics. If so, Woody may have his first shot at a best picture nom since "Hannah and Her Sisters" (1986) and his first best director bids since "Bullets Over Broadway" (1994) and "Crimes and Misdemeanors" (1989).

All Oscar eyes are on Scarlett Johansson, too, considering how well actors usually do in Woody films. Previous champs in the supporting races include Michael Caine ("Hannah and her Sisters," 1986), Dianne Wiest ("Hannah and Her Sisters," 1986; "Bullets Over Broadway," 1994) and Mira Sorvino ("Mighty Aphrodite," 1995).

Typical of her reviews for "Match Point" is this gushing from Variety: "More of a blond bombshell than ever, Johansson combines strong elements of sexuality, self-doubt and emotional insistence in an indelible portrait of tragic beauty."

Johansson's chances for Oscar recognition are helped by lingering outrage over the fact that she was snubbed in 2003 when everybody associated with "Lost in Translation" received noms except the doe-eyed ingenue with a lost gaze whose performance gave that film its soul.

But, beware: assuming Johansson finally makes the cut this time, she isn't automatically a winner. Consider this list of Woody contenders who've lost in the supporting slots in the past:

Maureen Stapleton, "Interiors" (1978)
Mariel Hemingway, "Manhattan" (1979)
Martin Landau, "Crimes and Misdemeanors" (1989)
Chazz Palminteri, "Bullets Over Broadway" (1994)
Jennifer Tilly, "Bullets Over Broadway" (1994)
Judy Davis, "Husbands and Wives" (1992)
Samantha Morton, "Sweet and Lowdown" (2000)

Meantime, Johansson has already scored a Golden Globe nom and faces off against these rivals on Jan. 16: Shirley MacLaine ("In Her Shoes"), Frances McDormand ("North Country"), Rachel Weisz ("The Constant Gardener") and Michelle Williams ("Brokeback Mountain").

Uh oh. Media quibbling over alleged historical inaccuracies in "Munich" is building. Reuters cites "a list of complaints made by those with direct knowledge of the Israeli reprisal campaign."

Director Steven Spielberg claims that his film is merely "inspired" by real events, but that's what Ron Howard said about "A Beautiful Mind" in 2001, failing, in the end, to fend off one of the ugliest Oscar scandals ever.

The uproar over "A Beautiful Mind" was launched by internet gossipmeister Matt Drudge, who reported that "some academy members are discovering shocking Jew-bashing passages found in the book on which the movie is based." Indeed, math genius John Nash's old comments documented in the book were worse than shocking — they were insane and sensational. The Nobel Prize winner once pointed to "Krypto-Zionist conspiracies" and claimed that "the root of all evil, as far as my personal life is concerned, are Jews." Nash supporters claimed his rants should be excused because he'd been suffering from extreme schizophrenia at the time.

None of this info about Nash was new. Nor were reports about his alleged bisexuality, but Howard's film glossed over those, too, of course, as Hollywood movies always do with that sort of thing. Meantime, a public debate of fact-vs.-fiction grew around the frontrunner for the best picture Oscar while enterprising journalists tried to top each other digging up more and more shockeroos. MSNBC.com "Scoop" columnist Jeannette Walls unearthed a real doozy. She found Eleanor Stier, the mother of Nash's illegitimate son, who said that Nash had refused to support their boy while he grew up. Not only did Nash's film bio leave that out, but Stier claimed it was "full of things that were made up. It made Nash seem heroic. He's really sort of mean."

Photo: When a similar controversy hit "A Beautiful Mind" in 2001, Oscar voters rallied behind director Ron Howard.
(Universal Pictures)

Forget "Ho! Ho! Ho!" I gasped "Ha! Ha! Ha!" on Christmas day when Sportsbook.com issued odds on who's ahead in the top Grammy races. Sure, it's possible that Mariah Carey could win record or album of the year, but — I don't care how generous Santa feels this year — not both.

However, Sportsbook.com gives music's secret Mimi the best odds for best record (8 to 5) and album (13 to 10). Kanye West reaps the second-best odds in both races (9 to 5 and 8 to 5, respectively).

Now here are the real howlers: Green Day is in third place in the record lineup with 2 to 1 odds and, in the album contest, the online bookmakers give Gwen Stefani better odds (7 to 2) than U2 (9 to 2).

Stay tuned for much better odds: GoldDerby's inside track on the top races, which I'm compiling now while tapping the views of top Grammywatchers.

On Jan. 3, 20th Century Fox and Joaquin Phoenix will show "Walk the Line" at Folsom State Prison, but not while campaigning to reach Oscar voters who may be receiving justice for having produced such film felonies as "The Dukes of Hazzard" or "House of Wax."

They want to do what Johnny Cash aimed to achieve when he famously performed at the penitentiary in 1968: to inspire inmates to rehabilitate and redeem themselves.

"The concert at Folsom was more than just a masterpiece for John, it was also an incredible nexus for a lot of things in his life," director James Mangold told Variety. "Only 13 days before the concert, his previous marriage had completely dissolved, he was just kicking drugs, and it was the first time he was really able to look clear-eyed to June Carter as both a husband and father. And as an artist for the first time he was in control of the black horse that was dragging him down."

Phoenix adds: "John believed in the power of redemption and offered his unique gift to anyone who needed to find it within them, and in the process, he inspired millions. I can think of no greater way to honor him than to carry on his legacy of using music to connect to all people."

Photo: The prison concert scene in "Walk the Line" was shot in Memphis, not on location at the big house near Sacramento, California.
(20th Century Fox)

"That's just silly!" gasped our poster "SoulMusiq" when I asked this question in our forums: Can being pregnant help Gwen Stefani at the Grammys? The No Doubt songbird recently announced that she's three-months pregnant by hubby Gavin Rossdale, the British-born lead singer of Bush.

Our poster, "Susan Mayer," was so aghast over the question, she fumed, "This thread isn't even worth posting in!" then proceeded to add three more entries in response to comments from posters like "MichaelBluth," who piped in: "I think she will win several Grammys due to sympathy."

Pregnancy is a fascinating and elusive factor in the dramas surrounding who'll win showbiz awards. It's impossible to prove that pending motherhood has ever helped a nominee, but it's really not silly to wonder about. After all, the top kudos are peer-group prizes often doled out like hugs from a nominee's industry colleagues. Just consider:

Photo: Oh, baby! Gwen Stefani is depicted in a frisky pose on the cover of her Album of the Year nominee "Love. Angel. Music. Baby."
(Interscope Records)

"It now has blood on its hands."

That's the outrageous claim being made against the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. by a British media source reporting the suicide of a suspended HFPA member. Thus we witness a shocking new low in a favorite media sport: Golden Globe bashing.

Big Buzz magazine writer Nick Douglas recently hung himself in a thrift shop in Belfast, Northern Ireland, allegedly because he was depressed over having been suspended from HFPA for rules infractions.

"They basically took a livelihood away from a guy who was out there trying to earn a living," Barry O'Kane, managing editor of the local Belfast entertainment publication, told the New York Times. "It led completely, directly to what ended up happening to Nick."

But that allegation doesn't add up. O'Kane says he had to drop Douglas' column after Douglas was ousted from HFPA and no longer had access to celebrities. However, Douglas had only been an HFPA member for three years and O'Kane had no problem publishing the column during the previous eight years.

Furthermore, Douglas' yearlong suspension was technically over in September. His access to celebs had been fully restored to what it was previously, but HFPA wouldn't pay for his trips to out-of-town junkets and film festivals. That proviso will be reversed in another few more months, though. The worst of his troubles had passed.

At the time of his death Douglas was receiving medical treatment for depression, which suggests that he may have had deeper problems than not getting a freebie flight to New York to chat with Heidi Klum. Suicide seems like a rather extreme response to having to stay back in the HFPA hometown of L.A. where he could gab with Charlize Theron or Heath Ledger.

Imagine a future award category for best performance by a big misunderstood ape or a nasty little ex-hobbit. It won't be created this year because the Broadcast Film Critics Assn. plans to bestow an honorary prize on. Jan. 9 to Andy Serkis, the man inside the monkey suit in "King Kong" and behind Smeagol's sly snarl in the "Lord of the Rings" trilogy.

But watch out for such bizarre developments at kudofests beyond.

How to acknowledge human performance behind computer-generated imagery on film is the hot new challenge facing showbiz awards. It didn't matter just a few years ago during the production of the first installment of "Lord of the Rings." New motion-capture technology merely aped an actor's general body movement. Gollum's facial expressions had to be rendered by animators who took their lead from watching tapes of Serkis performing the role as a human, not a hobbit.

Soon thereafter, however, CGI production took a gorilla-size leap with the second "Rings" installment, "The Two Towers," plus "The Polar Express." Serkis' and Tom Hanks' most subtle facial expressions could suddenly be captured thanks to the placement of more than 100 markers on the actors' faces before they did their roles. Strategically placed cameras could then shoot a 3-D record of their performances, not missing a nuance.

The technology recently reached sophisticated — and thrilling — new heights.

"Many BFCA members wanted to vote for Kong for best actor because they were so impressed by the astonishing way in which he expresses love, lust, humor and rage in the tradition of the finest human actors," says the group's president, Joey Berlin.

If this trend continues, imagine a future best actor race pitting Garfield against Spider-Man, a Flintstone, a mummy and one of those seven dwarves. My money would be on Garfield. That cool cat is never shy about expressing himself.

Photo: If academy voters would acknowledge Kong's fearless scenery-chewing, he'd give a great performance at the podium at the Kodak Theater next March.
(Universal Pictures)