Subscribe"Brokeback" is ahead at Producers Guild
It's probably safe to bet a gay cowboy's ranch that "Brokeback Mountain" will win best pic this Sunday from the Producers Guild of America, a key forecaster of the top Oscar. Over the past 17 years, the two best picture prizes have agreed 12 times. The five exceptions:
PGA members chose "The Aviator" last year (Oscars picked "Million Dollar Baby"), "Moulin Rouge" in 2001 (Oscars: "A Beautiful Mind"), "Saving Private Ryan" in 1998 (Oscars: "Shakespeare in Love"), "Apollo 13" in 1995 (Oscars: "Braveheart") and "The Crying Game" in 1992 (Oscars: "Unforgiven").
One thing is clear from their voting pattern. Voters tend to go with the early derby leaders. "The Aviator" and "Saving Private Ryan" were way out front at first, but then tripped up in the home stretch. At the start, "Apollo 13" was considered a fave to win too, but it got eclipsed by a surge from "Sense and Sensibility" in early kudos.
"Apollo" rallied right before the Academy Awards. Many pundits thought it would win. In fact, in the L.A. Times that came out on Oscar morning, the paper's top two film critics predicted the film would beat "Braveheart".
"Apollo 13" also won the paper's poll of 50 top film-industry honchos who dared to guess the best picture outcome. That tells us that producers' guild members probably thought they were riding the victorious Oscar horse too.
But what should we make of the victory of "The Crying Game" in 1992?
Photo: Those gay cowboys have nuthin' to fret about at PGA, many award watchers believe.
(Focus Features)
Fascinating, that choice. Maybe those stodgy money guys and gals wanted us award watchers to know how cool they were.
Back then "The Crying Game" was all the buzz of sophisticated America. Everybody wanted to know if everybody else had seen it yet and discovered its shocking, gender-bending secret. "Crying Game" not only beat early Oscar favorite "Unforgiven" at PGA, but it also beat "A Few Good Men," the highest-grossing film of the year ($141 million domestic, $101 million international) that had any serious shot at the best picture Oscar. Four other films earned more box office gold, but didn't have a prayer at Academy Award gold — like "Aladdin" and "Home Alone 2."
Producers are usually suspected of being money-grubbers, so shouldn't we be surprised that they preferred "Crying Game" to "A Few Good Men"? No, come to think of it. If greed was what inspired their voting, "Crying Game" was the best bet because it provided, percentage wise, a much better return on investment. Produced for only $5 million, it grossed $62 million just in the U.S. Or — let's stop being skeptical — maybe they really thought it was the best film of the year.
The producers' past choice of "Crying Game" matters a lot this year because it tells us that the business side of filmmaking, often considered to be a heterosexual haven, is extremely gay-friendly. That sure helps "Brokeback Mountain," which has lots of other PGA pluses too. It's the early kudos leader and this "Mountain" sure hit the mother lode for its investors. Made for only $14 million, it has already earned more then $33 million domestically and is right now the No. 1 movie in America.
But beware of "Crash." It's the one film that has a chance to tower above "Mountain." It has enormous secret support in the industry and lots of new momentum, as witnessed by how well it's performing at other guild awards and BAFTA. And if producers truly care a lot about returns on investment, well, "Crash" is a bonanza. Produced for only $6.5 million, it earned more than $55 million at the U.S. box office and was the top-selling DVD for the first two weeks of its release.
I don't think "Good Night, and Good Luck" has any chance to win PGA. Its odds jump hugely at the Directors Guild of America, however, where "Crash" will be a serious rival too.
But for now let's see if "Brokeback" can prevail on Sunday with the producers. If it's really the awards juggernaut that it appears to be, we'll see more evidence — albeit inconclusive — there.
Jasmine:
You are obviously correct. How could I have overlooked the Phoenix Critic's Award--that bellweather of the DGA and the Oscar? Seriously, what I should have said is that George Clooney has not won the best director award from any of the signficant Oscar precursors. It really is almost unpredented for the same individual to win best direction awards from the Golden Globes, the New York Film Critics, the LA Film Critics, the National Board of Review and the Broadcast Film Critics. (Cronenberg did win the best director award from the National Society of Film Critics, but he isn't even nominated for the DGA.)
I've looked at the award's databases and, in the past 30 years, I can't find a single situation in which an individual has won all of the awards that Ang Lee has won this year, but failed to win the DGA and the Oscar for best director.
And when you add on top of this the fact that Ang Lee is well liked and well respected in Hollywood and has never won an Oscar, the conclusion is obvious. It would be a huge upset if Ang Lee did not win the DGA and the Oscar for best director.
Posted by: stev4922 | January 22, 2006 at 01:07 PM
Dear stev4922,
You are obviously looking at an incomplete list of who's won critic's awards so far. George Clooney has in fact wont the Pheonix critics' award for best director. Other winners you probably don't know about are Bennet Miller, Steven Spielberg and Fernando Meirelles, all for best director from critic's groups.
In the future, my friend stev4922, please refer to a more complete list before you so strongly state your "facts".
Posted by: Jasmine | January 22, 2006 at 11:26 AM
CRASH will indeed crash. There's no doubt about it...This is Brokeback Mountain's year!
No one can stop this speeding train...I predict a flawless and clean sweep of every major award category. Ang Lee and the rest of the Brokeback boys (and girls) deserve nothing less.
Kudos to Ang and company. May the new year open our hearts and minds to this groundbreaking piece of cinema :-)
Jon C.
Posted by: Jonathan C. | January 22, 2006 at 09:35 AM
Logan69: You're "fairly certain" that GN&GL will win the DGA??? Based on what? To date, Clooney has won NONE of the precursors--the Golden Globe and ALL of the critic's awards have gone to someone else--mostly to Ang Lee, with Cronenberg winning a few of the awards. Clooney has won NOTHING as of today.
Posted by: stev4922 | January 22, 2006 at 08:57 AM
I'm fairly certain 'GN&GL' will win the DGA award, and that the PGA will be down to the wire between 'Crash' and 'Brokeback.', with the edge to darkhorse 'Crash.' This will be dubbed a huge upset if it happens, even though it shouldn't be, as it has settled into a 3-way race.
What I believe has happened is that the majority LA voters have embraced 'Crash' and made it Their Movie. .
'GNGL' and 'Capote' are both seen as East Coast movies and are most appealing to New Yorkers, the biggest minority of Oscar voters, but a minority, still.
'Brokeback' cuts across lines (a positive for it) but its support will be siphoned by partisans on both coasts (a negative). Ditto 'Munich,'' which is further hurt by divisiveness among the huge block of Jewish voters.
Walk the Line' gets many of its voters from Hollywood's conservative minority, said to be strongest among the 'little people' and a few well-knowns (Gibson, Eastwood, Heston, M.McConnaghey, and some say, Miss Reese herself).
Posted by: Logan69 | January 21, 2006 at 02:19 PM
The most successful film of the year in the awards race by far is WALK THE LINE, made for $28 million and grossing over $100 million. CRASH did well in its budget range but has also spent more on their awards campaign than WALK THE LINE. Wasn't CRASH the one that sent DVDs to all the 100,000 SAG members? Anyway, my point is that one could make a case for each film on the PGA nominees list. I have a feeling that the PGA. like every other group, votes for what they loved. I, for one, hope it's not BROKEBACK MTN, because I am exhausted of "all brokeback all the time." The movie was good but the hype has worn out its welcome. I think it's widely overpraised and rarely does anyone say anything negative about the movie because exactly what happened to Tom here happens all the time.
Posted by: nicky | January 21, 2006 at 10:51 AM
In various of his posts and articles, Mr. O'Neil keeps mentioning that in 1996, the analysis published by the LA Times on the morning of the Oscars predicted that "Apollo 13" would win and didn't even mention "Braveheart", and thus implying that "Braveheart" came out of nowhere to win. Prior to the Oscars, "Braveheart" had already won the Golden Globe and Broadcast Film Critic's Association awards for best director (Mel Gibson) and had also won the Guild awards for original screenplay, film editing and cinematography. And this was in a year in which "Leaving Las Vegas" and "Sense and Sensibility"--and not "Apollo 13"--dominated the critic's awards. My question is, what were they smoking in the LA Times' editorial offices that day?
To imply that the Oscar race for best picture this year is in any way comparable to 1996 is simply ridiculous. None of the contenders in 1996 in any way, shape or form dominated the pre-Oscar awards (including the critic's awards) the way BBM has.
Posted by: steve4922 | January 20, 2006 at 11:27 AM
BROKEBACK MUST BREAK THROUGH--
Let's put it like this: Oh my God! When I saw Crash! I knew that it was a magnificent film and it both dispelled stereotypes and showed the beliefs in stereotypes as truths. Truly, the Academy Awards should have an award for Best Ensemble Cast. As a college professor, my students saw Crash and then discussed it in my Multiculturalism class this past summer. I thought at that time that nothing could beat it as Best Picture....but like Emerel says, "BAM!"
Along came Brokeback Mountain and the subtle eloquence of the music, scenery, and empathy were interrupted by magnificently timed moments of Pathos! "Bam!” The heart-wrenching cruelty of society so played out by Randy Quaid, the murder and hatred of gays, and the repressed lies that society has caused gays (and their loved ones) to suffer---leading Heath to represent loss , repression, and fear, and Jake, representing both hope and helpless vulnerability beyond his control. These two heart wrenched lovers juxtaposed to the beauty of the cinematography is artistic nuance at its finest, making Ang Lee my choice for Best Director. And let’s not forget Jake as "Best Supporting Actor" at the Academy Awards. He epitomizes the tender side a gay man often must conceal and reveals the loneliness gays face in a crowd.
Crash is reality at its harshest----but Brokeback Mountain reveals to the American general public the repressed, secret suffering that so many gays have experienced in their real lives.
As I sat mesmerized in the theater, I noticed other men sharing the same silent suffering they and the characters had experienced in life--represented by Heath-- a repressed rage: loss and desperation that has to be endured. "If we can't fix it, we have to stand it." That stoicism stands like Brokeback Mountain itself and Ang Lee gracefully chisels away at America's prejudices, shaping our future culture. This by far, trumps the reality of prejudice that we all know exists in Crash---
Munich is good, but Schindler's List is Spielberg's masterpiece, not Munich. Good Night, and Good Luck, is docu-drama, so that should eliminate it from the best picture category anyway. Walk the Line can be awarded the Best Musical at the Academy Awards--oops! I guess it is time that the Academy Awards put that category in, since Chicago and Moulin Rouge revived the genre for Hollywood. In my opinion, Brokeback Mountain does for gays and their suffering what Schindler's List did to gain understanding of Jewish suffering...only Jewish kids don't have to tell their families they are Jewish...gays have to tell their families they are gay, and they risk losing them. Crash doesn't help solve any problems, it just points them out. Go for the social justice: freedom and democracy, and equality among all US citizens...yes, I am making a political statement about the effects of a love story that happens to have gay characters.
Posted by: Robert the Idealist | January 20, 2006 at 05:46 AM
If "Brokeback" wins at PGA and DGA, yes, this race is over. Nowhere have I claimed otherwise. What I've said is that, if "Brokeback" wins PGA, there's still the chance of a surprise at DGA and, if we see that, we must be open to alternate possibilities since DGA usually lines up with the top Oscar.
Posted by: Tom O'Neil | January 20, 2006 at 02:14 AM
Good Lord, Brokeback wins at the PGA and DGA wouldn't be "conclusive" to you? You have got to be kidding! At that point, all you'll have left is the SAG. I guess if Crash wins the SAG ensemble, we'll be hearing a lot about Shakespeare in Love and Saving Private Ryan Now, how did GNAGL and Pride and Prejudice do at the Globes again?
Posted by: CJ | January 20, 2006 at 01:56 AM
Thanks for the acknowledgement to your readers and posters Tom - I am a supporter of Brokeback Mountain and I do feel that at times, you seem to be more than a bit anti-BBM... but I think others have already called you out on this so I won't harp.
Something that I think you haven't mentioned though is that in previous races where there have been so-called splits/surprises between the top awards, there is often a very strong third film in play that siphons off votes to create this shift. Classic example is 1998: if Malick's Thin Red Line was not nominated for best picture, Saving Private Ryan probably would have easily beat Shakepeare in Love. 1995: One could argue that Apollo and Sense lost more voters to each other and neutralized themselves to allow Braveheart to sneak in.
If you are interested in spinning scenarios, thats perhaps the only one that could topple BBM... Crash (or another film) woulnd't upset BBM, but rather it would siphon off votes to allow another film to sneak in at the last minute. It seems though that the core of BBM isn't going to budge, at least for now (or that Crash and GNGL aren't siphoning votes away from BBM but are good alternatives for those who didn't like BBM.)
In these scenarios that you present, its probably helpful to look at all the nominees involved to get a better picture of what caused the voting to diverge from the Golden Globes. Its often not just a 2-way race, but a fairly close race between 3 films. I don't see that happening right now with BBM, Crash and ?
And yeah.. it seemed totally impossible two months ago... but Brokeback being the top movie in America and at least hitting $60 mil... wow... the Academy will surely award it for that.
Posted by: JT | January 19, 2006 at 11:52 PM
As far as I'm concerned Brokeback Mountain was FAR better then Crash. As a matter of fact I really cant believe Crash is even being mentioned as a best picture contender. I would rather Star Wars Episode 3 be nominated and win because Lucas deserves at least one best picture OSCAR for the STAR WARS stories. If STAR WARS cant have it BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN should get it. Thats my point of view.
Posted by: B Walcott | January 19, 2006 at 11:42 PM
As far as I'm concerned Brokeback Mountain was FAR better then Crash. As a matter of fact I really cant believe Crash is even being mentioned as a best picture contender. I would rather Star Wars Episode 3 be nominated and win because Lucas deserves at least one best picture OSCAR for the STAR WARS stories. If STAR WARS cant have it BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN should get it. Thats my point of view.
Posted by: B Walcott | January 19, 2006 at 11:41 PM
It's my job to spin out all possible scenarios that can happen ahead in the awards derby, so that's why I make much of "Crash" and "Good Night." They both really have a chance of derailing the "Brokeback" juggernaut. That's all I'm warning you about, perhaps too strongly. But I do that for emphasis' sake. This race isn't over. Surely, however, "Brokeback" is moving further and further out front and is odds-on-fave to prevail March 5, you betcha. If Internet posters think I've got something against it, they're fools. If I was betting my own coin right now, I'd put most of my moneybags on "Brokeback." But, beware: the derby isn't over. Remember, on that Oscar morning that the L.A. Times predicted "Apollo 13" would win, it didn't even mention "Braveheart" in its analysis. It underestimated a factor that could play a huge role this year, too: the studly-star-turned-director. Gibson then, Clooney now. And "Crash" is the kind of wild card that can easily throw off the race.
Too many of you are tracking this race like fans, rooting for your faves and getting furious when someone like me points out warnings of other possibilities. I'm not rooting for any movie to win. I luv most of the ponies this year, and, if "Brokeback" goes the distance, I'll be thrilled. Historically speaking, its victory will look great in Oscar's pantheon.
Posted by: Tom O'Neil | January 19, 2006 at 11:11 PM
Er...doesn't PGA usually like films with "bigger" production? Crash is a much smaller film, comparing with Brokeback. Plus, Brokeback is on track to exceed Crash's boxoffice take in two to three weeks.
Posted by: JCK | January 19, 2006 at 08:39 PM
Glad to see your acknowledgment of Brokeback Moutain's success on being the #1 movie in American for the past 2 days, Tom.
This is actually quite impressive, if not astounding. Historically, GG winners don't drive up the ticket sells at the theatres by a large margin. BBM broke that rule this week and surged from #9 in the weekend to being #1 in the daily chart.
This performance reminds us that rules are made to be broken.
Posted by: Sam P | January 19, 2006 at 07:26 PM
Hmmm... nice analysis there... but i just have this gut feeling that the same group of people (you know who they are) is gonna attack you and accuse you of being a shoddy and biased blogger all over again... let's see if i'm correct...
anyways, Tom, may the Force be with ya... and keep up the great work... :)
Posted by: VanHelsing | January 19, 2006 at 07:24 PM