Could there be a DGA upset?
If there will be an upset in the Oscar best picture race, the last chance for a sneak peek is at the Directors Guild of America awards this Saturday. DGA is the most accurate forecaster of the top Oscar by far. Since 1970, more than 85% of the films that won that guild kudo went on to be voted best picture by academy members (30 in 35 years).
Sure, "Brokeback Mountain's" Ang Lee is favored to triumph, but he already claimed this prize five years ago for "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon." Voters have permission to skip over him now if they wish. Thus an upset by George Clooney ("Good Night, and Good Luck") or Paul Haggis ("Crash") is possible. The other two nominees, Bennett Miller ("Capote") and Steven Spielberg ("Munich"), can safely fake a flu and stay at home.
How likely is an upset? It doesn't happen often, but it happens. Sometimes Oscar and DGA voters get bored with early best picture favorites and suddenly hop on a new horse in the home stretch. That's what occurred with "The Sting" and "Midnight Cowboy," for example. Both were snubbed by the Golden Globes ("The Sting" wasn't even nominated for best pic) and top film critics' awards. Only when they pulled off shockeroos at DGA did we get a hint that they were real players at the Oscars.
So, what about this year? Can "Good Night" or "Crash" really do it?
Look over a list of past winners and you'll see lots of actors-turned-directors, just like you do at the Oscars. Perhaps it was even essential that they won DGA first so that they gained industry credibility before nabbing the ultimate industry honor, the Academy Award. The long list of glitterati champs — Clint Eastwood, Ron Howard, Warren Beatty, Robert Redford, Kevin Costner and Woody Allen — suggests that voters really love to slobber over celebs.
But that happens at all showbiz awards. Actors win outside their category all the time. Even at the Writers Guild of America where past winners include Emma Thompson and Billy Bob Thornton. It's ridiculous. You'd think that sophisticated Hollywooders would be immune to silly fawning.
Clooney has another secret advantage. The former star of "ER" comes from the TV industry just like DGA voters. The vast majority of DGA members aren't feature film directors. They work on TV sitcoms, commercials and music videos. Clooney is one of their own, plus he helmed a movie about television. "Good Night, and Good Luck" is all about the boob tube's early glory days.
The secret TV factor is what could help Paul Haggis pull off an upset too. For decades he's been writing and/or directing scads of TV series like "thirtysomething," "EZ Streets," "The Facts of Life," "One Day at a Time" and "The Love Boat." Over the past year he just pulled off the ultimate dream of every DGA member who now toils in the TV trenches: he made a triumphant crossover into feature films. And he did so spectacularly, pressing on with filming even though he had a heart attack. His "Crash" zoomed ahead to become one of the top-grossing dramas of 2005.
Besides, Hollywooders know that they owe Paul Haggis big time. Everybody associated with "Million Dollar Baby" won an Oscar last year except the guy who wrote it. Haggis lost to the "Sideways" scribes. Now shouldn't this year be his turn for spectacular awards success?
His studio, Lionsgate, is certainly backing "Crash" with an aggressive kudos campaign, setting a new record for the number of DVD screeners blitzing Hollywood voters. The guild doesn't permit filmmakers to send screeners to its members directly, but studios still do so indirectly. That's one of the reasons why more than 100,000 DVD copies are floating around Hollywood right now.
Still, Ang Lee will be hard to beat this year. "Brokeback Mountain" looks like an awards juggernaut. It's artistically stylized, critically hailed, feels important, makes a key social statement, is a surprise box office hit and has won scads of precursor awards. Neither "Midnight Cowboy" nor "The Sting" pulled off their upsets against such a formidable foe.
Personally I'm betting on Lee, but I won't be surprised if Clooney or Haggis pulls through.
While I will admit to seeing a huge Brokeback supporter, I appreciate reading all the possibilities of what could and might happen with the awards. So keep going with your analysis, Tom, I find it very engaging. I don't know why people keep accusing you of wanting to see Brokeback fail. I've yet to read you say anything negative about it. In fact, you've consistently said that Brokeback will probably win. And saying that there's a possibility that it might lose an award (for example, it really has no chance at the SAGS tonight) is not really saying anything negative, at least in my view.
Anthony
Posted by: Anthony D. Langford | January 29, 2006 at 12:28 PM
That's pretty funny on several levels, first of which would be, where did I mention Brokeback Mountain? I did say 'other contenders' which include Brokeback Mountain, Good Night and Good Luck or even Capote, which I feel were all better efforts. As for your 'gutsy' opinions, that is too funny, please keep up the great "open minded award discussion'.
Posted by: patrick | January 29, 2006 at 12:15 PM
That's ridiculous. You're a fan rooting for "Brokeback" who can't stand someone saying that other films have a shot at winning. When I say "I'm betting on Lee," how can you construe that I'm REALLY saying that Haggis or Clooney will win? You should leave Envelope/GoldDerby and just hang out at a "Brokeback" website when you can "ra! ra! ra!" with other gushing Heath/Jake fans and not have your feelings hurt by honest, gutsy, open-minded awards discussion.
Posted by: Tom O'Neil | January 29, 2006 at 10:02 AM
Tom, I know it's hard to hear anyone knock your views, but look back at all your articles and tell me that you have not been riding a one man campaign in pushing Crash. The fact that you try to cover your ass with comments like, "Personally I'm betting on Lee, but I won't be surprised if Clooney or Haggis pulls through.", does not take away from your attempts to push a good film over a clearly better one. I have heard this also in your interviews on television as well in your web site.
Posted by: patrick | January 29, 2006 at 09:10 AM
Patrick, I don't know whose column you're reading, but it's obviously not mine. I predicted, correctly, a win for Lee. It's my job to map out all possibilities that might occur, then draw a conclusion. That's what I did in the article above, and was proven correct tonight. Just because I point to a scenario of how an alternative MIGHT win doesn't mean I'm saying that it WILL win. I made it very clear who I thought would win in the end.
Posted by: Tom O'Neil | January 28, 2006 at 11:49 PM
Congratulations to Ang Lee for winning the DGA!
Go BBM!
Posted by: maribel | January 28, 2006 at 11:27 PM
I wonder if there will be a 'crash' backlash because of Mr. O'Neil's non stop campaign to get votes. I thought it was a well done film, but no where near the other contenders. I doubt it will even get a best picture nod on tuesday. Don't worry Tom, you have plenty of time to think up things to knock the other films you trash non stop.
Posted by: patrick | January 28, 2006 at 10:07 AM
Lee by a mile.
Posted by: Dorothy | January 28, 2006 at 01:58 AM
Teri, what do you mean by "visible minority" and "if ang lee does win, it will remind me of figure skating"? Do you mean if Ang Lee wins, it will be a result of a fraud?
Posted by: JCK | January 27, 2006 at 12:23 PM
I have to disagree with the presumed voting records of "Crash" bashers because I voted for Kerry and I thought "Crash" was heavy-handed, self important and 25 years behind the debate. If this film resonated with anyone, it was with conservatives who want to feel progressive by finally acknowledging that racism exists, but who, in 2006, still won't see a movie where two guys kiss.
Posted by: mjr | January 27, 2006 at 12:08 PM
by the way, i think, in my humble opinion, that i have just enough fingers and toes to count the films and the directors who won that were actually "the best". it's getting better though, which is encouraging. i'm also getting tired of people trashing CRASH. i dont mean any offense to anybody but i wonder how many CRASH-bashers voted for BUSH. 90%?
Posted by: teri | January 27, 2006 at 12:29 AM
has a visible minority ever won the best director award at the oscars? other than the life-time achievement for the late great akira kurosawa? i'm thinking but i cant think of one. if ang lee doesnt win, it will remind me of figure-skating.
Posted by: teri | January 27, 2006 at 12:12 AM
Tom, I believe you have beat the dead horse enough ... how the INCREDIBLY over-rated "Crash" or the self conscience "Good Night, and Good Luck." could beat "Brokeback Mountain" is just wishful thinking for Oscar bloggers trying to fill copy. "Brokeback" is not only the best film of 2005, period, it also has become a cultural phenomenon, one that the Academy will have no qualms in awarding the big one to come Oscar Sunday.
Posted by: kcholt68 | January 26, 2006 at 05:54 PM
Logan69: "At least half the Oscar gurus are predicting a Clooney win." Which half would that be? As I've pointed out in numerous posts--in which I have responded to your reptitive mantra that "Clooney will win"--to date, the only award Clooney has won for directing "GN&GL" is the Phoenix Film Critic's award. If the pre-cursor awards mean anything, it would be a HUGE upset for Clooney (or anyone else, for that matter) to win over Ang Lee.
Posted by: steve4922 | January 26, 2006 at 01:53 PM
If there is a DGA upset, it will not be George Clooney, because that will certainly NOT be an upset. At least half the Oscar gurus are predicting a Clooney win. With his presumed heavy support from TV land as well as moviedom, It is Clooney's to lose.
A DGA upset will be if Spielberg wins. Or Bennett Miller. (Even a Paul Haggis win would be only a modest surprise.) Come on, Tom. Don't get caught up in hyperbole.
Logan
Posted by: Logan69 | January 26, 2006 at 01:39 PM
In his article, Mr. O’Neil mentions “Midnight Cowboy” (1969) and “The Sting” (1973) as examples of situations in which “Oscar voters get bored with the early best picture favorite and suddenly hop on a new horse in the home stretch.” As is usual in this column, Mr. O'Neil's use of statistics from prior years is completely off base. 1969 and 1973 really aren’t comparable to this year; the major awards for best picture and director in 1969 were in fact split among several different films, and no one film dominated in the way that “Brokeback Mountain” has this year.
In 1969, the major awards for best picture and director were split among several different films:
Oscar--“Midnight Cowboy” for best picture and director (John Schlesinger)
Golden Globes--“Anne of the Thousand Days” for best picture drama and director (Charles Jarrott)
New York Film Critics--“Z” for best picture and director (Costa-Gavras)
National Board of Review--“They Shoot Horses, Don’t They” for best picture and Alfred Hitchcock (“Topaz”) for best director
National Society of Film Critics: “Z” for best picture and François Truffaut (“Baisers voles”) for best director
There was also a split of these major awards in 1973:
Oscar—“The Sting” for best picture and director (George Roy Hill)
Golden Globes—“The Exorcist” for best picture drama and director (William Friedkin)
New York Film Critics—“La Nuit Américaine” for best picture and director (François Truffaut)
National Board of Review—“The Sting” for best picture and Ingmar Bergman (“Cries and Whispers”) for best director
National Society of Film Critics—“La Nuit Américaine” for best picture and director (François Truffaut)
Posted by: steve4922 | January 26, 2006 at 01:28 PM
QUOTE:Can Clooney or Haggis upset Clooney at the DGA? No, they can't. Neither movie was nearly as creative, artistically stretching, truthful, beautiful, poignant or important. They might have made nice films, but neither were great films. Brokeback Mountain is a great film--a true classic;QUOTE
Absolutely.....I agree with Doug. Ten years from now......we will have forgotten Crash and GNGL...but we will still be talking about Brokeback Mountain.
Posted by: nancy | January 25, 2006 at 09:37 PM
I predict that the Brokeback boys (and girls) will collect 12 nominations at the Oscars...And it will win at least 8 of them!
You hear it from me first. I think the Academy is well-poised to make HISTORY this year! The voters can almost taste it.
Sean H.
Posted by: Sean H.. | January 25, 2006 at 09:24 PM
I think this is yet another attempt by tom o'neill to add yet more suspense to the event. I think if there will be an upset it will come with the oscars themselves -- with the one month lag in time for them to really decide what is best.
Tom, god bless you for trying, had me believing and hoping that pride and prejudice would win the golden globes and I think the DGA, although Lee is by no means a given, will be an interesting race.
Posted by: John | January 25, 2006 at 08:27 PM
Lee cannot lose. They may be TV directors, but this is a film award. They can't be that preferential. Besides, the fact that BOTH Haggis and Clooney may be drawing votes just kills their chances further. They will likely split the votes of any dissenters, and there won't be many.
I agree that the more interesting question is whether Brokeback will pierce the acting categories. I still say a SAG sweep is possible, given the true juggernaut steamroller effect the film is starting to produce. Jake, Heath, and the ensemble could all win. I think that's more likely than none of them winning. Unfortunately I think the actors may be seen as too young for statues, and writing/directing will be where the film reaps awards. But never underestimate the power of a best pic steamroller... like American Beauty and Return of the King, it could just start winning EVERYthing.
Posted by: Adam Keller | January 25, 2006 at 08:07 PM
I agree. No film is going to beat BM. It is clearly not only the best film of the year, but the best film in many a year. To compare it to GNAGL is like comparing an epic to a movie of the week. After having seen BM twice I would feel seriously cheated if any other film won.
There is just no contest. Apart from Capote I have seen every one of the major contenders. Hoffman will probably win Best Actor but Jake Gyllenhaal has the weight of "is he lead or isn't he?" which could propel him in the supporting category. The scoring, cinematography, editing, and screenplay are major contenders. Ang Lee, Heath Ledger are locks as is Michelle Williams for noms.
I expect 9 nominations. And Tom, I appreciate your efforts to keep the Derby interesting through the February lull. But Brokeback Mountain is the best film of 2005 and will win the Oscar for Best Picture. I just hope that the same people who saw this beautiful and unforgettable film tune in to watch on Oscar night.
Posted by: Ricky0101 | January 25, 2006 at 08:03 PM
Can Clooney or Haggis upset Clooney at the DGA? No, they can't. Neither movie was nearly as creative, artistically stretching, truthful, beautiful, poignant or important. They might have made nice films, but neither were great films. Brokeback Mountain is a great film--a true classic. Hopefully, the best will win, regardless of politics.
I think the more interesting question is if Ledger can beat Hoffman, or if Gyllenhaal can beat Giametti or Clooney. I think that since the Oscars will be delayed because of the Olympics, members will have more time to watch Brokeback Mountain for a second or third or fourth time. The more time and the more viewings, the better. That Jake and Heath created two incredibly authentic and original characters and gave the two best performances of the year should help them. They might not win in politics, but maybe they will win because they are the best.
Posted by: Doug Stone | January 25, 2006 at 07:44 PM