'Brokeback' will win best picture at the Globes, yes, but . . .
Will this year's Golden Globes be a repeat of 1995? That was when another Ang Lee film, "Sense and Sensibility," was considered to be the gold derby frontrunner. "Sense" ended up snagging the Globe for best drama pic, yes, but not best director. That went to a studly-star-turned-director, Mel Gibson, whose "Braveheart" troops ambused all rivals and began their march toward the Oscars.
This year the Ang Lee film is "Brokeback Mountain" and the studly-star-turned-director is George Clooney, whose "Good Night, and Good Luck" has a lot of admirers within the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. Voters do love embracing hunk actors in that directors' category. Clint Eastwood's won three times, even for a film you've never seen ("Bird"), although he did lose one time, for "Mystic River," but that was because nothing could stop Peter Jackson and his mighty "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King." It's possible that actors are invincible in that category, but what complicates matters this year is the fact that Clooney's also nommed for supporting actor. Voters have the option of recognizing him there for "Syriana," which they probably will, but that won't necessarily stop them from giving him two chunks of gold in one night. That's happened at Globes past to Sigourney Weaver and Joan Plowright.
Another category to watch closely is screenplay. If "Brokeback" wins there, plus the directors' race, it may very well be unstoppable en route to the Oscars. But there's a growing surge of support for "Crash," which Globers didn't nominate for best picture. If "Crash" pulls off an upset for best screenplay, that may be an omninous foretelling of a kudos collision ahead. "Crash" creator Paul Haggis and "Good Night's" George Clooney both have a real shot at beating Ang Lee at the Directors Guild of America, which Lee already won in 2000 for "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon." If the gay cowboys fall off their derby horses in those races — for director and screenplay at the Globes and director at DGA — then "Good Night" or "Crash" will probably overtake "Brokeback" in the Oscars home stretch.
Second biggest upset of the night (after Clooney besting Lee) will be "Pride & Prejudice" beating "Walk the Line." Explanation below . . .
BEST DRAMA PICTURE
X - "Brokeback Mountain"
"The Constant Gardener"
"Good Night, and Good Luck"
"A History of Violence"
"Match Point"
My best spies tell me there's surprising voter strength behind "Good Night," but not enough to win. This is "Brokeback's" big victory, of course, but the mountain's cliffhanger: will it be upset in the categories for director, actor and/or screenplay?
BEST MUSICAL OR COMEDY PICTURE
"Mrs. Henderson Presents"
X - "Pride & Prejudice"
"The Producers"
"The Squid and the Whale"
"Walk the Line"
Filmgoers admired and liked "Walk the Line," but loved "Pride & Prejudice." That must be true, too, for Globers. The only glitch might be the expectation that "P&P" will not be nommed at the Oscars. Globe voters don't want to look out of "Line," but they're probably going to give "Line" their top two acting laurels. Enough. Unlike Oscar voters, Globers like to spread the gold around and I think this is where they do it. Besides, voters proved they're Jane Austen fans back in 1995 by sticking by "Sense and Sensibility"as best drama pic.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE PICTURE
"Kung Fu Hustle" (China)
"Master of Crimson Armor" (China)
"Merry Christmas" (France)
"Paradise Now" (Palestine)
X - "Tsotsi" (South Africa)
Most pundits predict this will go to "Kung Fu Hustle" or "Paradise Now," but "Tsotsi" delivered the most powerful emotional wallop.
BEST DIRECTOR
Woody Allen, "Match Point"
X - George Clooney, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Peter Jackson, "King Kong"
Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"
Fernando Meirelles, "The Constant Gardener"
Steven Spielberg, "Munich"
Here's where the race gets interesting. Lee won a few years ago for "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon," so I think voters will feel they've got permission to stray and indulge their whim to hail Clooney. If so, that's when Oscar storm clouds gather over Brokeback Mt.
BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Russell Crowe, "Cinderella Man"
Terrence Howard, "Hustle & Flow"
X - Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"
Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"
David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Usually, the film that wins best pic takes a top acting category, just like the dual victories last year for "The Aviator" and Leonardo DiCaprio. But I think Globers will do their art-house turn here. You know, like when they went for Peter Fonda in "Ulee's Gold" or even for relative unknowns like Geoffrey Rush ("Shine") and Brenda Blethyn ("Secrets and Lies"). They missed nominating "Capote" for best pic, a prize it recently won from the National Society of Film Critics. That was a major oversight. Here's where they can fix that, or at least address it, by backing Philip Seymour Hoffman. Besides, Globers like to forecast the Oscars and everybody knows that studs like Heath Ledger get slapped by the jealous geezers in the academy.
BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Maria Bello, "A History of Violence"
X - Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"
Gwyneth Paltrow, "Proof"
Charlize Theron, "North Country"
Ziyi Zhang, "Memoirs of a Geisha"
Maria Bello has her admirers, but Felicity Huffman has the buzz and really gives the year's best performance in one of the year's finest films.
BEST COMEDY OR MUSICAL ACTOR
Pierce Brosnan, "The Matador"
Jeff Daniels, "The Squid and the Whale"
Johnny Depp, "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory"
Nathan Lane, "The Producers"
Cillian Murphy, "Breakfast on Pluto"
X - Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"
Watch out for a possible upset by Pierce Brosnan. Globers love his daredevil departure as a bisexual hitman. But Joaquin Phoenix is what last year's winner was: an A List star nailing the portrayal of a music legend. Jamie Foxx won for "Ray" and he didn't even sing the film tunes like Joaquin does. Joaquin wins.
BEST COMEDY OR MUSICAL ACTRESS
Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
Keira Knightley, "Pride & Prejudice"
Laura Linney, "The Squid and the Whale"
Sarah Jessica Parker, "The Family Stone"
X - Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"
Reese Witherspoon should win easily, considering she's already swept up kudos from the National Society of Film Critics, New York Film Critics Circle and Broadcast Film Critics Association — even the People's Choice Award! An upset is possible, though, from either the radiant Keira Knightley or the defiant Judi Dench.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
X - George Clooney, "Syriana"
Matt Dillon, "Crash"
Will Ferrell, "The Producers"
Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man"
Bob Hoskins, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
I'm not very confident of this prediction. I can see scenarios where Matt Dillon, Paul Giamatti and even Bob Hoskins can win. But Clooney will win at least one Globe, so, if I predict him here, too, my bases are (mostly) covered.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Scarlett Johansson, "Match Point"
X - Shirley MacLaine, "In Her Shoes"
Frances McDormand, "North Country"
Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener"
Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain"
Poor Scarlett Johansson. Eternally snubbed. She wasn't even nominated at the Oscars in 2003 when everyone associated with "Lost in Translation" scored a bid except its breakout star. Scarlett's been nommed for three Globes, sure, but she's lost three times. The poor dear is sooooo overdue that her plight has become notorious, so I originally picked her to win in this race because I figured embarrassed Globers will probably want to do something about this nagging folly. But then I noticed she's faced off against two similar rivals, at least in appearance: lovely ingenues who impressively prove their acting chops. All three have a real shot at winning, but they could also split the vote. Now consider Shirley MacLaine, an ole Globe fave. She's won 4 times — 5, if you count the Best Newcomer Award, which isn't technically an acting prize. Globers love veteran showbiz dames. Look at the list of past winners in this category: Meryl Streep ("Adaptation"), Lauren Bacall ("The Mirror Has Two Faces"), Lynn Redgrave ("Gods and Monsters"), Joan Plowright ("Enchanted April"), etc. I have a hunch that Shirley will win a fifth acting award, tying the record for most film acting Globes held by Rosalind Russell.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Woody Allen, "Match Point"
George Clooney and Grant Heslov, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco, "Crash"
Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, "Munich"
X - Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, "Brokeback Mountain"
If "Crash" or "Good Night" pull off an upset here, that may tell us what strong challenges they could pose to "Brokeback" at WGA, DGA and the Oscars. I've already gone out on too many Globe limbs, so I'll conservatively bet on "Brokeback."
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat, "Syriana"
James Newton Howard, "King Kong"
X - Gustavo Santaolalla, "Brokeback Mountain"
Harry Gregson, "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe"
John Williams, "Memoirs of a Geisha"
"Geisha" or "Kong" really deserve this prize, but "Brokeback's" score is pretty darn good, too, so I think it triumphs here as part of its best pic sweep.
BEST SONG
"A Love That Will Never Grow Old" from "Brokeback Mountain," music by Gustavo Santaolalla, lyrics by Bernie Taupin
"Christmas in Love" from "Christmas in Love," music by Tony Renis, lyrics by Marva Jan Marrow
"There's Nothing Like a Show on Broadway" from "The Producers," music and lyrics by Mel Brooks
X - "Travelin' Thru" from "Transamerica," music and lyrics by Dolly Parton
"Wunderkind" from "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe," music and lyrics by Alanis Morissette
Look at this category historically and it seems that the nominee with the most recognizable star name usually wins. That's why I'm betting on Dolly Parton, but Mel Brooks could win for the tune he added to "The Producers" just so he'd be eligible for an Oscar. How nice that would be if it happens, considering he won an Oscar back in 1968 for penning the screenplay to the original nonmusical film that started it all.
Amen to that, God. The word "hypocrite" springs to mind. I will not be told how to behave by any Christian who quotes Leviticus and does not adhere to every single one of his rules.
As for the film being explicit. Did I miss something? Darn, I might have to go see it again.
Posted by: Starling | January 23, 2006 at 01:51 PM
Amen to that, God. The word "hypocrite" springs to mind. I will not be told how to behave by any Christian who quotes Leviticus and does not adhere to every single one of his rules.
As for the film being explicit. Did I miss something? Darn, I might have to go see it again.
Posted by: Starling | January 23, 2006 at 01:47 PM
Why are people all uptight and upset about Brokeback Mountain? Why would anyone say it's too explicit? Almost every single movie has some sex scenes or kissing, but it's okay because it's between a man and a woman? And this movie is too explicit? Why? Because the two cahracters in love are men? It's about time a mainstream movie included some sexuality other than straight, Not everyone who watched movies is straight, after all. Why not appeal to the rest of us???
Posted by: Crystal | January 16, 2006 at 09:00 PM
Well Leonard. Im not trying to be ignorant..just trying to make my point that most critics aren't saved Christians..and don't believe that homosexuality is wrong...so...is it just me that thinks this, or is it stupid when someone starts to freak out about how critics should read the Bible about it or how horrible it is that they like the movie so much? And well most people who have a brain know what our culture is like right now. Understand what Im saying? :o)
Posted by: Emily | January 16, 2006 at 02:38 PM
I will have my fearless forescast: Borkeback Mountain will win the Golden Globes, SAG & Oscars.
Director: Ang Lee
Actor: Hoffman or Ledger
Actress: R. Witherspoon.
Best Supp. Actor: George Clooney
Best Supp. Actress: Michelle Williams
Screenplay: Brokeback Mountain
Posted by: Eddie | January 16, 2006 at 02:36 PM
for Emily who wrote: "probably about 80% of critics are non-Christians. So for all who are surprised at this...I wouldn't be. Thats hollywood/our culture in a nutshell." So, Emily. wink, wink we all get your message.Are you inferring that the 80% are Jewish or are they simply not your kind of Christian? Either way, your thoughts reveal a malignant mind that is also a bit ignorant.
Why is Hollywood so minority controlled? Perhaps it takes an outsider who has put up with all of the mascara tinged piety to point out the crushing hypocrisy of the multitide of Emilies in the world. Why don't you take a breather and just relax.
Posted by: Leonard | January 16, 2006 at 01:44 PM
Hi Tom,
I'm looking at supporting actress and I see this reference to Scarlett: "everyone associated with "Lost in Translation" scored a bid except its breakout star" -- aside from Bill Murray and Sophia Coppola, who else are you thinking of that scored a bid?
Also, when you say she wasn't nominated, you mean she wasn't nominated for an Oscar, right? And we're discussing the Golden Globes, right? Because when I read what you wrote, it looks like you're saying she wasn't nominated for a GG for Lost in Translation (when she was).
And as for being "eternally snubbed" -- since she's rec'd 4 nominations in 3 successive years (one of which, A Love Song for Bobby Long, I think we can all agree was quite generously given) I'd say "eternal" doesn't quite fit, and neither does "snubbed." She keeps losing to the women that go on to win the Oscars. Ooops, bad luck. But c'mon she's getting a nice collection of gift bags.
Jeff Bridges and Peter O'Toole qualify as "eternally snubbed" Oscar candidates. Scarlett doesn't.
Posted by: Who else? | January 16, 2006 at 01:36 PM
Dear Marie,
I don't actually personally say anything about homosexuality in the bible. Neither does my son.
However, if you are pointing to Leviticus and you are currently clad in that hideous cotton/poly sweater set that you think looks good on you, then you too are commiting an abomination (seriously, mixed fabrics, wrong). Also, that shrimp cocktail you had during happy hour last Thursday at TGI Friday's, ahem, also an abomination.
So in summary, my words: love thy neighbor as thyself.
As far as Leviticus goes... well, does "glass houses" ring a bell?
Posted by: God | January 16, 2006 at 01:23 PM
Brokeback Mountain isnt supposed to be some Christian film where they read the Bible and read what it says about homosexuality and what a sin it is. I certainly don't enjoy how the critics are raving over it..but a point I must make is probably about 80% of critics are non-Christians. So for all who are surprised at this...I wouldn't be. Thats hollywood/our culture in a nutshell.
Posted by: Emily B. | January 16, 2006 at 12:58 PM
this is to all of those that have asked if anyone has read the bible and its views on homosexulaity...ive grown up in the church my whole life and i can say without a shadow of a doubt that i am a born again christian.....but not an ignorant one, i know the bible and what it says....BUT...i also know that God says...and pay attention you ignorant christian fools.......NO SIN IS GREATER THAN THE OTHER....NO SIN....so if you are blameless ...there you go....OH ...and also....i believe someone should be saying ...ANY or you without blame should throw the first stone....or take the plank out of your own eye....OR how bout this.....DONT GO SEE MOVIES THAT COMPROMISE YOUR VALUES!!....and have any of you seen HOSTEL????? that by far, is worse than anything that was in brokeback....at least brokeback was about LOVE....and most of these other movies have content in it that is not something God would want you to watch...right?????? so ....how dare you come on and try to pick and choose what you think the world, full of Gods FREE WILL creations, should see and where they should draw the line.....and brokeback showed a love between two people that was beautiful and if you couldnt see that cuz you were blinded by the fingers you point ...then i feel sorry for you....
Posted by: jen | January 16, 2006 at 12:15 PM
Are my friends and I the only ones who call Brokeback "Bareback Mountain"?
(BTW, I am a lover of men, so know that I mean this in a lighthearted way)
-Kurt
Posted by: Kurt | January 16, 2006 at 12:13 PM
You people are so funny! Josh did not post those homophobic statements about Brokeback Mountain! THAT WAS MARIE! THE PERSON'S NAME APPEARS BELOW THEIR POST, NOT ABOVE IT!
Posted by: Chris | January 16, 2006 at 12:03 PM
I can't believe that the world has come to this. God speaks against homosexuals in the bible and the media has sunk so low as to let this movie win. There are much better movies with better morals that could win. Oh, I forgot you don't post Christain movies. Left Behind 3.
Posted by: ks carson | January 16, 2006 at 11:50 AM
Poor Josh -- the way the names appear in relation to the posts, he is being tarred with making the idiotic statements that were made by Marie.
Marie -- your post makes no sense. First you say Brokeback Mountain was too explicit. Have you seen the movie???? There were dozens of movies this year that were far more explicit sexually -- but I guess it's okay when it's heterosexuality that is being shown.
Gay people spend their lives being bombarded EVERY DAY everywhere with images of heterosexuality, in TV, movies, music videos, and advertising. You see ONE movie that has gay sex (Q -- did you actually see it??) and boo hoo, you get all uncomfortable and offended. Tough luck!!
Then you say you respect people's sexuality -- well, if you did, you wouldn't be offended by the brief, non-explicit scenes of gay sex in Brokeback Mountain. You choose to see the movie as being about sex, when what it is about is love. But you missed that, because you prefer to hate.
Don't pat yourself on the back for thinking that you respect people's sexuality -- you don't. You respect the sexuality of those whose sexuality corresponds to your own personal views. That's an entirely different thing.
Finally, you ask if we know what the Bible says about homosexuality. If you truly respected people's sexuality, you wouldn't trot out this tired old argument. God I am so tired of idiots like you who use the Bible to support your moral views when it is convenient and who avoid the Bible when it doesn't support your views.
Posted by: Todd | January 16, 2006 at 11:29 AM
Im rooting for Brokeback Mountain all the way. Its definelty the best film of the year. Im surprised Jake Gyllehaal is not nominated as best supporting actor. He did a good in this movie.
Ive watched all the nominated films and BrokeBack Mountain is the only one that haunts me. I still feel the pain everytime I think about this movie!!!!!!
Posted by: Rose N | January 16, 2006 at 11:17 AM
Regarding the gushing kudos for brokeback Mountain: qbgmm3Everyone over 50 has suffered a case of homophobic amnesia. How could we forget Warhol's magnificnet Lonesome Cowboys and that achingly, throbbingly handsome hunk (and junkie)Joe Delasandro?
Posted by: Leonard | January 16, 2006 at 11:10 AM
Josh said:
.
"THE MOVIE WOULD HAVE BEEN OK IF SO MUCH WAS NOT SHOWN. I RESPECT PEOPLES SEXUALITY, BUT THEY NEED TO KEEP IT PRIVATE IN THEIR OWN PERSONAL LIVES."
Private? I am sorry, there are so many movies showing straight people kissing and making out.. Please keep those in private too if you actually have problem with 2 men kissing. Please don't kiss your wife/gf in public, b/c it's disgusting and please keep it in private as well. I am also wonder why you paid so much attention on the so called "private scene"... Did you watch it over and over again on those scenes?
Josh also said:
"IS ANYONE OUTHERE AWARE OF WHAT GOD SAYS IN THE BIBLE ABOUT HOMOSEXUALITY ETC?"
I am sorry again, I don't study bible. If you believe in bible, good for you and keep it for yourself.
Anyway, Brokeback Mountain is incredible, It's blunt and honest about certain relationship. It's testing the comfort zone of many people. The emotional expression from Heath Ledger was outstanding, silent and yet powerful.
Posted by: Lee | January 16, 2006 at 11:10 AM
Everyone over 50 has suffered a case of homophobic amnesia. How could we forget Warhol's magnificnet Lonesome Cowboys and that achingly, throbbingly handsome hunk (and junkie)Joe Delasandro?
Posted by: Leonard | January 16, 2006 at 11:07 AM
Josh has obviously not seen Brokeback Mountain...His words show that:
" DONT AGREE THAT THE "BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN" SHOULD BE THE TOP WINNER FOR THIS YEAR DUE TO THE EXPLICIT CONTENT. PEOPLE IN HOLLYWOOD SHOULD REALIZE THE VALUES AND MORALS IN THE UNITED STATES ARE REAL BAD AND THEY NEED TO BE CAREFUL AND CONSCIENCIUS.
THE MOVIE WOULD HAVE BEEN OK IF SO MUCH WAS NOT SHOWN. I RESPECT PEOPLES SEXUALITY, BUT THEY NEED TO KEEP IT PRIVATE IN THEIR OWN PERSONAL LIVES.
IS ANYONE OUTHERE AWARE OF WHAT GOD SAYS IN THE BIBLE ABOUT HOMOSEXUALITY ETC?"
Anyone who has seen this film will tell you that VERY little nudity and sex was actually shown in this film. There are basically two nude scenes with the main characters, both rather out of focus and only one sex scene. The rest is just kissing. Josh, do you know what the bible says about "loving one another"?
Posted by: Joel | January 16, 2006 at 10:42 AM
I also don't believe that Brokeback Mountain is going to win for Best picture...to me I would prefer that none of the movies on that list would win..but I'm pretty sure it won't. It was surprising to me even that it won at the Critics Choice Awards..that was pathetic enough. Im sure all of the critics and fans of the movie will have a field day about it if it doesn't win..hah. Too stinking bad for them. Im rooting for George Clooney's movie..
Posted by: Emily B. | January 16, 2006 at 10:33 AM
I'm sorry...MARIE was the unfortunate one who left the comment mentioned below...not josh.
Posted by: Stephen | January 16, 2006 at 10:21 AM
I think that Brokeback Mountain is a quality film that shows a new site into a different way of life. The material could be a bit too much for some people, but it shows true life. Why is allowed for a film to show the life and relationship, even sexuality, without any complaints. Once it involves tw women it becomes a thin line, but when gay men are talked about it crosses the line! Common on people, this is THEIR way of life...not yours. Let people be who they are. I think that if people were more open minded that there would be less complications in life! For the reason of showing the world population that love is love not matter what, I think that Brokeback Mountain is the best film of the year...maybe even ever. For showing that love is ever changing and growing I believe that this film should win.
Posted by: Samantha | January 16, 2006 at 10:21 AM
I resent Josh's comment. The United States is actually the most uptight/puritanical when concerning "morals and values" These kinds of movies have been made for years in Europe. Brokeback Mountain was an excellent movie. These things happen. And mentioning the Bible? I'm sorry, that's just bad taste. AND STOP USING CAPS!
Posted by: Stephen | January 16, 2006 at 10:19 AM
The fact that Capote was not nominated for much, other than Best Actor, shows that it lacks support among the Golden Globe audiences and voters in my opinion. This leads me to believe that Heath Ledger will win Best Actor.
In regards to Clooney, he will win Best Supporting Actor but most people realize that Ang Lee has the Best Film this year, period, and if you have the best film, the director deserves he chance to win as well. I do not believe Clooney will win Best Director, Ang Lee should.
Michelle Williams will win Best Supporting Actress and if we could see the votes, it would likely be a landslide. Nothing I have heard shows that any momentum is on any other of the candidates in this category.
Personally, I just want either Heath or Michelle to win.... That family deserves 2 awards tonight but they should especially get at least 1.
Go Brokeback Mountain!
Posted by: Josh | January 16, 2006 at 09:51 AM
I DONT AGREE THAT THE "BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN" SHOULD BE THE TOP WINNER FOR THIS YEAR DUE TO THE EXPLICIT CONTENT. PEOPLE IN HOLLYWOOD SHOULD REALIZE THE VALUES AND MORALS IN THE UNITED STATES ARE REAL BAD AND THEY NEED TO BE CAREFUL AND CONSCIENCIUS.
THE MOVIE WOULD HAVE BEEN OK IF SO MUCH WAS NOT SHOWN. I RESPECT PEOPLES SEXUALITY, BUT THEY NEED TO KEEP IT PRIVATE IN THEIR OWN PERSONAL LIVES.
IS ANYONE OUTHERE AWARE OF WHAT GOD SAYS IN THE BIBLE ABOUT HOMOSEXUALITY ETC?
Posted by: MARIE | January 16, 2006 at 09:47 AM