Help me! I want to scream ''Crash' will win best picture!'
Why, oh, why don't I have the guts just to blab this out: "'Crash' will win the Oscar for best picture!'"?
Every time I come close to summoning the courage, I wimp out. Smart pundits don't make reckless calls, I remind myself. Especially so early. It's a week before the Golden Globes and just days after the guilds announced their nominations.
But it was at this time last year that I realized that "Million Dollar Baby" would probably overtake "The Aviator," even though the Howard Hughes biopic was about to soar off with the top Golden Globes. If only I had spoken up sooner, Jeff Wells and Pete Hammond could not have claimed all of the "M$B" bragging rights for themselves. Curses!
No guts, no glory, right? If I make a "Crash" proclamation now, I could own those rights this season. If only . . . if only I could . . . Oh, should I? . . . Naw.
I get enough abuse from you dear cyber-readers.
But here's why I want to do it. Sure, "Crash" has been snubbed by all of the critics' awards and isn't even nominated for the top Golden Globe, but that doesn't matter. "The Sting" prevailed under the same circumstances. Furthermore, after "Brokeback Mountain" wins the top Globe on Jan. 16, something odd is going to happen just a few weeks later, something that's never happened before. The gold derby will shut down, completely, for a full month, then resume again. At that point Oscar voters, I figure, will probably be bored with the whole "Brokeback" biz and will be looking for a new horse to back. None is more appealing or beloved or deserving than "Crash."
A few years ago, when the Oscars moved into February, the guild awards moved up, too, so they could stay out front. That threw the whole calendar into mayhem, especially in 2006. The winter Olympics are coming next month. The Oscars don't want to compete with those. What to do? Realistically, the awards show didn't have the option of moving into January. That's too, too early. So it went in the other direction, toward March. In between we'll now have a mammoth lull when the derby will be put on hold, and perhaps even be forgotten for a while.
In years past, when the Oscars were held in March, there were always those guild awards scattered throughout February to keep things interesting — and the race going. But not now. PGA is Jan. 22. DGA is Jan. 28. SAG is Jan. 29. WGA is Feb. 4. Then we have more than a month till the Oscars take place on March 5.
If academy voters get bored in the interim — which I'm sure they will, being a pampered lot — where will they turn? "Crash" has such enormous appeal and such huge secret industry support that it might actually win in a normal calendar year, too. We'll find that out when we learn the results of the Critics Choice Awards, PGA and DGA — "Crash" could win any or all of them. The producers' guild sometimes goes for small, artsy films like "The Crying Game," especially when they represent a terrific return on investment. Members of the directors' guild might be tempted to back its creator Paul Haggis because he's one of them, a TV veteran (most DGA members are tube troupers, not film helmers) who's achieved what they dream of — striking it big time in features. Even if "Crash" doesn't win one of those kudos, momentum for it will build gradually as hoopla around "Brokeback" inevitably wears down. "Brokeback" is widely admired, but, let's be honest: how much passion is there for it beyond gay circles? A lot, yes, but enough? And can it hang on once moviegoers have satisfied their curiousity to see the controversial flick of the season?
Photo: Since the Oscar is an industry prize, voters may be won over by the inspiring personal story of "Crash" filmmaker Paul Haggis (right, with Don Cheadle).
(Lionsgate)
"Crash," however, is the movie everybody in Hollywood can't help but adore. It's the ultimate Cinderella cinema story. It was made for only $6.5 million by the screenwriter of "Million Dollar Baby" who got screwed last year when everybody associated with his "Baby" won an Oscar except him. "Sideways" snagged the screenplay prize and Paul Haggis was amazingly gracious about it. "'Sideways' deserved to win," he told me later. "It was a better script." It sounded like he really meant it.
But "Crash" is his real baby, marking his debut as a feature film director. Haggis had worked for decades writing and helming TV series like "The Facts of Life," "thirtysomething," "Love Boat" and "Walker, Texas Ranger," but he desperately wanted to make the crossover to features. Once he got the chance, he was so determined to see "Crash" through that he continued to oversee the production even though he had a heart attack while filming. His heroic perseverance was classic "the show must go on" brio.
After "Crash" wrapped, Cinderella went to the ball. "Crash" went to the Toronto Film Festival where it was a breakout hit and nabbed a distribution deal with Lionsgate.
Then, when it hit theaters in May, 2005, "Crash" did what all great films are supposed to do: it hung on month after month, building an audience of fans while word spread. By autumn it had become the second-highest-grossing drama of the year, reaping $55 million, which was just a few mil shy of what "Cinderella Man" had earned.
Meantime, there were frequent reminders of how strongly people loved "Crash." Like Oprah devoting a whole program to its themes. It's always been clear that the movie makes an extraordinary connection with people. My guess is that filmmakers probably feel strongest of all about it because it represents their professional ideal: a small perfect film that was made for the right reason — because it was a great idea — and went on to achieve fairy tale success.
What better recipient can there be for the top Oscar? By giving it the best picture prize, academy members will be sending a powerful message to the studios focused on remaking "X Men," "Mission: Impossible" sequels and yet another "Superman" for hundreds of millions.
Besides, who doesn't like rooting for the underdog? Oscar voters have proven how much they do in the past by hailing "Marty," "Chariots of Fire" and "Driving Miss Daisy." And this one isn't just any underdog. It's an important film with a message about racism from a white guy who was car-jacked just like his characters in "Crash." When it inspired him to write a film script, the result was such a literary knockout that an A List cast flocked to be in it. Heck, Sandra Bullock actually flew — on her own nickel! When has any other A-Lister actually paid for their own plane ticket to get to a set?
Now we know that "Crash" is having major impact on showbiz awards because it recently landed among the nominees for the four top guild prizes: producers, directors, actors and writers. That tells us Oscarwatchers something. Hollywooders love "Crash" so much that it actually may be on a collision course with the best picture Oscar.
Of course, another small artsy indie, "Capote," also, surprisingly, scored noms at the top guilds, too, and deservedly so. But I have a hunch that it doesn't have the fanatic support behind it that "Crash" does. For months we've heard showbiz leaders say things like, "Oh, yes, I absolutely adored 'Constant Gardener,' but do you know what movie I really loved? 'Crash'!"
Similar situations like that repeated so often that pretty soon we Oscar pundits had to wonder, "Hmmmm . . . could 'Crash' win best picture?"
Secretly, deep down in my heart of hearts, I've always known it could. Now if only I could let those feelings out . . . Help!
Crash is and was sub-par versus magnolia. I agree with the "hot button topin-ness." This is a film that IS a waterdown with big sexy hollywood rendition of MAG. "Progressive", NO BLOODY way! Watch some more PT anderson ie HARD EIGHT and get back to me. Racism is a part of the human condition AND mag dealt with it albeit not for 2 hours but is was in there. MAGNOLIA is a contemporary american masterpiece skillfully edited not MTVed to the point of eyecandy edited.
one last remark, Haggis picks a theme song that sounds remakaby like aimee mann's theme in MAg.
Give me a break, and that gets the bid for best song. RUBBISH!
love moze
Posted by: moze | March 19, 2006 at 05:08 AM
>>> "Crash" was a huge disapointment to me -- a showcase of very stilted, soap-box dialogue and ridiculous contrivances to get people to scream at one another in order to hammer home its points with all the subtlety (and ear-damage) of a jackhammer <<<
BRAVO! You got it right on - exactly how I felt. In fact, your criticism of the movie above is written better than anything in "Crash". I did give it "Thumbs up" because it was entertaining, but with the most unrealistic dialogue I have heard since the last Arnold Schwarzenegger movie. I have NEVER heard ANYONE in my 45-year life use the term "Chinaman" towards any Asian in a derogatory manner. There are MANY other terms for Asians that insult - "Chinaman" is NOT one of them used in 2005. Maybe in 1956. Perhaps in 1994, when "Crash" would have been groundbreaking. But not in 2005.
DON'T confuse the medium with the message. Yes the message was good - "can't we all just get along?" but the medium was not.
If (and that's a HUGE if) "Crash" wins Best Picture, there will be such a HUGE backlash in Hollywood the likes of which you have never seen before. And it's exactly what I will do - go outside and Crash my car into the nearest building so as to end my misery once and for all.
-Larr
Posted by: LARR | February 18, 2006 at 03:04 PM
CRASH best pix? What a crock! Crash was a terrible movie, but no one seemingly wants to say it because it deals with a hot button topic: racism. Face the facts the movie sucked. It was totally uninteresting as a movie. The story was noncompelling and unbelieveable. The only thing it has going for it is a star-studded cast. What crap!
Posted by: Matt | January 17, 2006 at 11:46 AM
Even though I thought Crash was the best movie of the year, it wont win too many awards. Its too progressive for Hollywood merely because it shows how we are all connected and all are at fault. And no one in it is homosexual. Almost everyone who won a globe last night reflected that agenda. Crash also cant be used as a middle finger to the red states and Brokeback can. Think about it. Its hard to bash tradition values with Crash when it sets everyone up for critiquing. Paul Haggis sets up a story so bold and original that he made (dubbed by Hollywood) the 'gay cowboy movie' the safe pick. Ebert was smart enough to see the power and relevance of Crash and I feel better that my fellow college aquantiances who saw both films perfered Crash. Its so good because it connects with all people and how we must not pre-judge others. Too bad Hollywood cant get it.
Posted by: kenny miles | January 17, 2006 at 11:40 AM
Crash connected with Black audiences for its message but it is nothing else than a great staged soap opera with solid acting. The film is also never believable and too predictable (specially the ending). Magnolia was a much superior film and similar in form and theme. Brokeback Mountain is an amazing film that will stand the test of time as one of the most important films of our generation. Only very few films have resonated politically and emotionally like BM. A lot of people will like to see BM not succeed bc they are uncomfortable with it. Predictions like the one posted here is nothing short of desperation for what they perceived as the homosexual agenda. Buts lets face it people, when and if racism and homophobia ceases to exist in this country only BM would be considered the amazing film because that is exactly what is it. Thematic aside Crash is not a great film but BM is.
Posted by: Daniel | January 17, 2006 at 11:17 AM
"Crash" is merely a safe rehash of racial issues that have already been covered in the media. Yes, racism is bad and it keeps beating the message on the audience. It feels like a training video made for a corporate training course on diversity and cultural sensitivity. Spike Lee's "Do the Right Thing" is far better and it was released before the LA riots, racial profiling, police brutality made the news.
Worse, "Crash" perpetuates (and possibly adds) stereotypes about Asians. The poorly written storylines for the Asian characters seem to be an after thought, just to make the movie appear more well-rounded. Asian audiences cannot be pleased.
“Crash” ultimately upholds stereotypes about Asian-Americans
http://www.mixedmediawatch.com/index.php/archives/2005/05/crash-upholds-stereotypes-about-asian-americans/#comments
“Crash": ultimately by whites, for whites
http://www.mixedmediawatch.com/index.php/archives/2005/07/crash-ultimately-by-whites-for-whites/#comments
Not worthy of Best Pic!
Posted by: Beans | January 14, 2006 at 07:58 AM
Comparing the voting habits of Oscar voters in 1973 (The Sting) to the voting block that exists 32 years later is ridiculous. Just as ridiculous as the premise that during a mere 30 day period, academy voters would somehow become bored - ("which I'm sure they will, being a pampered lot" Oh, come on Tom) - with a movie that is not only beautifully made and touching, but which clearly is a daring mainstream film to make. Momentum for Brokeback Mountain may have peaked among some award site fans, but not in the populace at large and not among Academy voters. It's a shoo-in for Best Picture. Crash has not been nearly as well-received.
Posted by: Irishguy | January 13, 2006 at 04:37 PM
Well said Robert. Everything about this film is great. It haunts you for days afterwards. I too have seen it twice and may go for a third.
Otherwise, watch for Terrence Howard in "Hustle & Flow", could be a dark horse. Much better than David whats his name from "GN&GL". Ditto "The Constant Gardener", good film which may snag a few noms.
I think what Tom is saying is that after the GGs and Guild awards are given out theres going to be a big lull in February during which NO awards will be given out. Then there will be campaigning for other films. But it doesn't matter. "BM" has been annointed the film of the year. It'll win the Oscar for Best Picture and Best Director, if nothing else.
Posted by: Ricky0101 | January 12, 2006 at 05:57 PM
I saw "Crash" last night for the first time. And I have to say it was a good film. But great, no. True, it's message was powerful and eye-opening, but it was not provacotive enough, not refreshing enough. Besides it's somewhat ground breaking form of story telling, and great cast, the stories were at times predictable and yes, even unbelievable and stereotypical..."Brokeback Mountain" took me to theaters twice. Then, it lingered in my thoughts for days later. It has been the talk of my group of friends both heterosexual and homosexual for days. It is ground breaking, revolutionary, and breathtaking. It makes you see love in different angles and shapes. It makes gender an illusion. Not to mention the incredible script, acting and cinematography. "Brokeback Mountain" is undoubtedly the best film of the year.
Posted by: Robert | January 12, 2006 at 04:25 PM
The moment I saw CRASH my life was changed forever. Not only as a minority, but as a person who loves films. Never would I look at the story telling form with the form of lazyness most films do. Never again would I go to the movie theatres to enjoy the usual badly produced crazness. If anything Crash raised my need to go to films only when they promised to be the very best film it can be. It's not the best picture of the year, but it has made me yearn for a Best Movie Contender with every viewing, and for that I thank it.
Posted by: Miles | January 12, 2006 at 02:36 PM
"Crash" was a huge disapointment to me -- a showcase of very stilted, soap-box dialogue and ridiculous contrivances to get people to scream at one another in order to hammer home its points with all the subtlety (and ear-damage) of a jackhammer. If "Crash" won Best Picture in the same year that Robert Altman is being honored, that would be a slap in the face to the great old man. "Crash" takes a simplistic Cinema 101 understanding of how Altman interlaced his characters with such ease and trust in their humanity and then turns every one of them into a showboating mouthpiece. "Crash" is McAltman. Haggis overwrote all the scenes and fiddled with what each character had to represent to the point where almost all of them ended up being symbols rather than people, which is deadly in a moving you want to engender empathy/understanding and make a lasting point. I wish "Crash" had been a better film, as I was very excited about it going in. There were a few isolated scenes of power in "Crash" that stood out, but the film was ultimately a cynical, bitter farce, so unrealistic that it became cloying, and I walked out saddened at all the lost opportunity it represented.
I think "Brokeback Mountain" is the film of the year and deserves to win Best Picture because it created real characters with lots of flaws but lots of human dreams and needs who don't need to rap in endless angry diatribes to get their point -- and humanity -- across.
Posted by: RockyTop | January 11, 2006 at 01:51 PM
Thank you Mike up there: Crash is totally contrived, derivative and unoriginal. It was made already a dozen times, most notably "Magnolia" and "Grand Canyon." The acting is terrific and Haggis is a wonderful writer but what is the big deal about this flick? The situations were not at all believable in the context of the writer trying to seam them all together. If nothing else, I want this guy's PR company because they are doing a great job. Although I've seen some terrific films this year, I can't say I've seen one that has knocked my socks off. Disappointing.
Posted by: Zoey | January 11, 2006 at 12:21 PM
Your article had me scratching my head. Crash? That painfully shallow, "why-use-a-metaphor-when-an-anvil-is-quicker" cliche-a-thon? Then I read the comments of your wise readers and felt much better. Crash simply isn't in the Best Picture league.
Posted by: meme | January 11, 2006 at 12:18 PM
Let's put it like this: Oh my God! When I saw Crash! I knew that it was a magnificent film and it both dispelled stereotypes and showed the beliefs in stereotypes as truths. Truly, the Academy Awards should have an award for Best Ensemble Cast. As a college professor, my students saw Crash and then discussed it in my Multiculturalism class this past summer. I thought at that time that nothing could beat it as Best Picture....but like Emerel says, "BAM!"
Along came Brokeback Mountain and the subtle eloquence of the music, scenery, and empathy were interrupted by magnificantly timed moments of Pathos! "Bam!" The heartwrenching cruelty of society so played out by Randy Qauid, the murder and hatred of gays, and the repressed lies that society has caused gays (and their loved ones) to suffer---leading Heath to represent loss , repression, and fear, and Jake, to represent both hope and helpless vulnerability beyond his control. These two heartwrenched lovers juxtaposed to the beauty of the cinematography is artistic nuance at its finest, making Ang Lee my choice for Best Director. And Let's not forget Jake as "Best Supporting Actor" at the Academy Awards. He epitomizes the tender side a gay man often must conceal and reveals the lonliness gays face in a crowd.
Crash is reality at its harshest----but Brokeback Mountain reveals to the American general public the repressed, secret suffering that so many gays have experienced in their real lives.
As I sat mesmerized in the theater, I noticed other men sharing the same silent suffering they and I had experienced in life--represented by Heath--a repressed rage: loss and desperation that has to be endured: "If we can't fix it, we have to stand it." That stoicism stands like Brokeback Mountain itself and Ang Lee gracefully chisels away at America's prejudices, shaping our future culture. This by far, triumphs the reality the we all know exists in Crash---
Posted by: Robert the Idealist | January 11, 2006 at 05:07 AM
Guess, predict, pontificate and scratch your head all you want - this year is NOT like the years that Braveheart or The Sting or Million Dollar Baby came out of nowhere to win.Brokeback will lead from start to finish and will win 6 or 7 Oscars in March, including Best Director and Picture. Ya ain't as smart as ya think, Mr. Goldderby...........
Posted by: TorontoTom | January 10, 2006 at 09:36 AM
"Crash" won't win best picture. When's the last time a film that was not even nominated for best picture at the Globes went onto win Best Picture at the Oscars? Nothing comes to my memory...but, hey...it's been a long time...if at all. "Million Dollar Baby" at least had some Globes support...the most "Crash" can swing is screenplay and an acting award - both of which it'll likely lose. It's nice to think that this year will be exciting and different, Tom, but like Moulin Rouge - it's all a big dream...it won't win.
Posted by: Kevin | January 10, 2006 at 09:26 AM
I would PUKE if "GNAGL" wins anything at The Oscars. I thought this was one of those self-righteous and self-important vanity productions. It was like "Look at me, I'm making an in your face, B&W art film with a message" so drool over it and tell me how wonderful I am!.
Didn't work for me at all. Playhouse 90, circa 2005.
Posted by: Ricky0101 | January 10, 2006 at 06:44 AM
Crash=Magnolia+Grand Canyon+Pulp Fiction+Boyz n the Hood+Falling Down+Colors+a dozen other movies. It was completely derivative.
Posted by: Mike in El Paso | January 09, 2006 at 09:19 PM
"Crash" was quite simply the worst movie I've seen in years. That such a contrived, empty, and absurd film would be considered for Best Picture is a further demonstration that we are a culture and a civilization in decline. But "Million Dollar Baby" was, too.
Posted by: Mike | January 09, 2006 at 02:48 PM
From a review by the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops:
"Powerful, beautifully crafted film with a strong moral center about a disparate, racially mixed group of Los Angeles residents, including a district attorney and his wife (Brendan Fraser and Sandra Bullock), a hardened cop and a rookie (Matt Dillon and Ryan Phillippe), an immigrant store owner, a locksmith, a pair of carjackers, a television director, and a weary detective with professional and domestic problems (Don Cheadle), whose lives will intersect in unlikely and redemptive ways. Writer-director Paul Haggis takes a story and milieu that at first seems sordid and ugly, and with the help of a terrific ensemble cast, has fashioned a transcendently moving essay on the benevolence that may lie beneath racial intolerance, and the interconnectedness of human beings, showing how good and bad can coexist in all of us, and how the former generally prevails."
The entire review can be seen at: http://www.usccb.org/movies/c/crash.htm
Posted by: Mario Valdes | January 09, 2006 at 01:57 PM
Uhh, Crash sucked people. It does seem on track to get a Best Picture nomination, probably because so many AMPAS members saw it, and given their actual interaction with minorities and urban life thought, "wow, this must be what it is like to be an urban dweller in reality--edgy! hip!" When in reality it is as edgy as a Tom O'Neill column, and slightly less realistic than King Kong.
If you really think that American cities are completely powder kegs of race-related hatred ready to blow at the first black-on-white crime, then two things: (1) Crash is the fantasy for you and (2) Please stay out of cities, we really don't need you here mucking things up. Urban life is not an exhausting, poorly-acted (Sandra Bullock is on the "A-List"?) string of racial slurs.
That said, I fully expect Crash to get a Best Picture nomination; it is foolish to think that 'Brokeback' would actually win this thing -- the best film of the year rarely wins, usually instead AMPAS goes for the film that seems 'Best Picture-ish", and an overblown, "edgy" drama with lots of N-words will make Hollywood feel really important. Also, AMPAS didn't honor Ian McKellan for 'Gods & Monsters' and Hollywood pretty much only rewards gay actors/performances that make gays look like sex-less victims or minstrel show clowns.
Posted by: Martin | January 09, 2006 at 10:54 AM
I enjoyed watching Crash, but best picture of the year?
Also, Paul Haggis is a Scientologist. Any thoughts on whether this will harm his chances of winning an Oscar?
Is the academy going to steer clear of the Hubbard followers, or is the academy going give him the benefit of the doubt and trust that he won't jump the couch during his acceptance speech?
Posted by: John | January 09, 2006 at 09:47 AM
I enjoyed watching Crash, but best picture of the year?
Also, Paul Haggis is a Scientologist. Any thoughts on whether this will harm his chances of winning an Oscar?
Is the academy going to steer clear of the Hubbard followers, or is the academy going give him the benefit of the doubt and trust that he won't jump the couch during his acceptance speech?
Posted by: John | January 09, 2006 at 09:45 AM
NO, NO, NO CRASH FOR ME.
After a Million Dollar Baby another sordid winner just to be politically incorrect and out of contest and fairness. I belive, LA's palet has more shades than just black and white, the movie fall short from a master piece, pointless and it goes nowhere. This movie doesn't represent the real life in LA. The Player, 1992. Pulp Fiction, 1994 and LA Confidential, 1997, all got the nomination but the gold.
Posted by: Jose Alberto | January 09, 2006 at 03:11 AM
i sure wouldnt mind if you are right, tom. CRASH is one of the most lasting movies i have ever seen in terms of staying with me (but then so does GALAXY QUEST...) there have been so many great films this year, and i'd be happy to see CRASH take the big prize, although i loved Brokeback, SYRIANA, Munich, Matchpoint, GB&GL, even Jarhead, Geisha, Phone-throwing Man, Walk the LIne, and the Squid and the Whale, just to name a few. i'm with you on this one!
Posted by: teri | January 09, 2006 at 02:00 AM