Help me! I want to scream ''Crash' will win best picture!'
Why, oh, why don't I have the guts just to blab this out: "'Crash' will win the Oscar for best picture!'"?
Every time I come close to summoning the courage, I wimp out. Smart pundits don't make reckless calls, I remind myself. Especially so early. It's a week before the Golden Globes and just days after the guilds announced their nominations.
But it was at this time last year that I realized that "Million Dollar Baby" would probably overtake "The Aviator," even though the Howard Hughes biopic was about to soar off with the top Golden Globes. If only I had spoken up sooner, Jeff Wells and Pete Hammond could not have claimed all of the "M$B" bragging rights for themselves. Curses!
No guts, no glory, right? If I make a "Crash" proclamation now, I could own those rights this season. If only . . . if only I could . . . Oh, should I? . . . Naw.
I get enough abuse from you dear cyber-readers.
But here's why I want to do it. Sure, "Crash" has been snubbed by all of the critics' awards and isn't even nominated for the top Golden Globe, but that doesn't matter. "The Sting" prevailed under the same circumstances. Furthermore, after "Brokeback Mountain" wins the top Globe on Jan. 16, something odd is going to happen just a few weeks later, something that's never happened before. The gold derby will shut down, completely, for a full month, then resume again. At that point Oscar voters, I figure, will probably be bored with the whole "Brokeback" biz and will be looking for a new horse to back. None is more appealing or beloved or deserving than "Crash."
A few years ago, when the Oscars moved into February, the guild awards moved up, too, so they could stay out front. That threw the whole calendar into mayhem, especially in 2006. The winter Olympics are coming next month. The Oscars don't want to compete with those. What to do? Realistically, the awards show didn't have the option of moving into January. That's too, too early. So it went in the other direction, toward March. In between we'll now have a mammoth lull when the derby will be put on hold, and perhaps even be forgotten for a while.
In years past, when the Oscars were held in March, there were always those guild awards scattered throughout February to keep things interesting — and the race going. But not now. PGA is Jan. 22. DGA is Jan. 28. SAG is Jan. 29. WGA is Feb. 4. Then we have more than a month till the Oscars take place on March 5.
If academy voters get bored in the interim — which I'm sure they will, being a pampered lot — where will they turn? "Crash" has such enormous appeal and such huge secret industry support that it might actually win in a normal calendar year, too. We'll find that out when we learn the results of the Critics Choice Awards, PGA and DGA — "Crash" could win any or all of them. The producers' guild sometimes goes for small, artsy films like "The Crying Game," especially when they represent a terrific return on investment. Members of the directors' guild might be tempted to back its creator Paul Haggis because he's one of them, a TV veteran (most DGA members are tube troupers, not film helmers) who's achieved what they dream of — striking it big time in features. Even if "Crash" doesn't win one of those kudos, momentum for it will build gradually as hoopla around "Brokeback" inevitably wears down. "Brokeback" is widely admired, but, let's be honest: how much passion is there for it beyond gay circles? A lot, yes, but enough? And can it hang on once moviegoers have satisfied their curiousity to see the controversial flick of the season?
Photo: Since the Oscar is an industry prize, voters may be won over by the inspiring personal story of "Crash" filmmaker Paul Haggis (right, with Don Cheadle).
(Lionsgate)
"Crash," however, is the movie everybody in Hollywood can't help but adore. It's the ultimate Cinderella cinema story. It was made for only $6.5 million by the screenwriter of "Million Dollar Baby" who got screwed last year when everybody associated with his "Baby" won an Oscar except him. "Sideways" snagged the screenplay prize and Paul Haggis was amazingly gracious about it. "'Sideways' deserved to win," he told me later. "It was a better script." It sounded like he really meant it.
But "Crash" is his real baby, marking his debut as a feature film director. Haggis had worked for decades writing and helming TV series like "The Facts of Life," "thirtysomething," "Love Boat" and "Walker, Texas Ranger," but he desperately wanted to make the crossover to features. Once he got the chance, he was so determined to see "Crash" through that he continued to oversee the production even though he had a heart attack while filming. His heroic perseverance was classic "the show must go on" brio.
After "Crash" wrapped, Cinderella went to the ball. "Crash" went to the Toronto Film Festival where it was a breakout hit and nabbed a distribution deal with Lionsgate.
Then, when it hit theaters in May, 2005, "Crash" did what all great films are supposed to do: it hung on month after month, building an audience of fans while word spread. By autumn it had become the second-highest-grossing drama of the year, reaping $55 million, which was just a few mil shy of what "Cinderella Man" had earned.
Meantime, there were frequent reminders of how strongly people loved "Crash." Like Oprah devoting a whole program to its themes. It's always been clear that the movie makes an extraordinary connection with people. My guess is that filmmakers probably feel strongest of all about it because it represents their professional ideal: a small perfect film that was made for the right reason — because it was a great idea — and went on to achieve fairy tale success.
What better recipient can there be for the top Oscar? By giving it the best picture prize, academy members will be sending a powerful message to the studios focused on remaking "X Men," "Mission: Impossible" sequels and yet another "Superman" for hundreds of millions.
Besides, who doesn't like rooting for the underdog? Oscar voters have proven how much they do in the past by hailing "Marty," "Chariots of Fire" and "Driving Miss Daisy." And this one isn't just any underdog. It's an important film with a message about racism from a white guy who was car-jacked just like his characters in "Crash." When it inspired him to write a film script, the result was such a literary knockout that an A List cast flocked to be in it. Heck, Sandra Bullock actually flew — on her own nickel! When has any other A-Lister actually paid for their own plane ticket to get to a set?
Now we know that "Crash" is having major impact on showbiz awards because it recently landed among the nominees for the four top guild prizes: producers, directors, actors and writers. That tells us Oscarwatchers something. Hollywooders love "Crash" so much that it actually may be on a collision course with the best picture Oscar.
Of course, another small artsy indie, "Capote," also, surprisingly, scored noms at the top guilds, too, and deservedly so. But I have a hunch that it doesn't have the fanatic support behind it that "Crash" does. For months we've heard showbiz leaders say things like, "Oh, yes, I absolutely adored 'Constant Gardener,' but do you know what movie I really loved? 'Crash'!"
Similar situations like that repeated so often that pretty soon we Oscar pundits had to wonder, "Hmmmm . . . could 'Crash' win best picture?"
Secretly, deep down in my heart of hearts, I've always known it could. Now if only I could let those feelings out . . . Help!
IS EVERYONE BLIND...OPEN YOUR EYES?
CRASH MIGHT AS WELL BEEN A FANTASY FILM BECAUSE IT IS JUST SO NOT BELIEVABLE. GIGLI AND GLITTER WERE MORE BELIEVABLE. CRASH IS AT MOST AN ENTERTAINING FILM. REMEMBER THE ARGUMENT IN CRASH BETWEEN THE ASIAN LADY AND THE FEMALE COP. IF NOT, WATCH IT AND TELL ME WHETHER IT QUALIFIES AS OSCAR WORTHY MATERIAL? I DON'T THINK SO.
ONE MORE THING, CRASH WAS SNUBBED BY THE HFPA, AND ALMOST EVERY OTHER CRITICS GROUP. ITS CHANCES OF WINNING OR BEING NOMINATED ARE JUST AS GOOD AS MARIAH CAREY WINNING A SAG AWARD.
Posted by: Celine | January 09, 2006 at 12:00 AM
Tom, forgive me for this distraction, but for whatever reason the link below doesn't work. Here's the link I hope you and your readers will check out
http://andthewinneris.blog.com
Posted by: Scott Feinberg | January 08, 2006 at 11:58 PM
Tom, I'm absolutely with you on "Crash" having a strong BP shot. Some movies "feel" like Best Picture material and others don't---we don't have many this year, in my humble opinion (which I know many will disagree with). I don't see any of the others having the staying power, as you mentioned, that "Crash" has. As you've astutely noted in your "Movie Awards" book, which I keep handy, Academy members like to vote for movies that show they are with the times by picking progressive movies. That, obviously, bodes well for "Brokeback," but I think that enthusiasm for "Brokeback" and "Munich" has already begun to wane, not that they aren't excellent films. "Good Night" is too small a movie to take the biggie, and "Walk the Line" is a fun movie, but it is not better than "Ray," which never had a shot, so it's got an uphill climb. To me, this is a "BBM" vs. the 5th slot race---I think even a "Cinderella Man" could give "BBM" a run for its money if it gets into the final five, but I especially think that's the case with Crash. Here's a movie that exposes that we all behave in ways that we cannot always be proud of, or at the very least harbor feelings deep down that should cause us concern. Yet it does so with humor and colorful characters---some high-brow critics say its riddled with cliches or call it unfathomable, yet they hold up "Birth of a Nation" or "Intolerance" as examples of great films, when they approached their stories the same way. The movie is meant to convey a message more than reality, and its accomplishment, to me, is that it does so without making us feel preached to. The fact that Haggis has a nice story and the film was made with peanuts will only help. If it gets nominated, it certainly should not be underestimated.
On a lighter note, I hope you and your readers will check out my new site, http://andthewinneris.blog.com, which covers other aspects of the awards season, in addition to the writing I do over at oscarwatch.com. I have already done interviews with Jeff Daniels, Rachel Weisz, and Amy Adams, with more to come, and I like to think some of the analysis is on the colorful side... hope you'll pay us a visit.
Posted by: Scott Feinberg | January 08, 2006 at 11:41 PM
This message is for Ronald!!!
Rotten Tomatoes is not an accurate resource to base anything on. Its Rotten and Fresh percentage reviews do not measure the quality of the film. Instead, you have to look at the Average Rating of Critics. Here is the list of Average Rating for possible Oscar Contenders from Rotten Tomatoes:
Brokeback Mountain-8.3
Good Night and Good Luck-8.2
Capote-8.2
A History of Violence-7.9
Munich-7.5
Crash-7.2
King Kong-7.2
So as you can see, Brokeback Mountain is undoubtedly the best rated film of the year. So don't be suprised this year if Brokeback goes all the way. By the way, Ang Lee won all (16) but three critics awards this year. There is no stoping the Ang train.
Brokeback Baby!!!!
Posted by: Celine | January 08, 2006 at 11:39 PM
I am with Celine on this.
I can't believe we are talking about Crash as a Best Picture. It has a 69 rating at Metacritic....panned by many critics. How is this a best picture exactly? It seems that Oprah and Will Smith and the rest of Black Hollywood is pushing this film. And now Ebert and O'Neil have become their spokesmen. There were great films with black performances last year.... Million Dollar Baby, Hotel Rwanda and Ray. Just because there aren't any great ones this year...does that mean Crash gets in by default? Its plot was too contrived with interweaving storylines which were unbelievable. It had many very good performances......but that does not add up to a Best Picture nominee let alone Best Picture.
If Black Hollywood wants to champion a film
they would have a better choice in "The Constant Gardener". A brilliant film which was not only universally praised by critics but loved by the public as well. Yes..the main actors are white....but this is also an important story about complacency to Third World problems. It eloquently depicts how the West has pretty much abondoned the poor in Africa and to some extent this is rooted to racism as well as ecomonics. Much better film and a worthier contender for Best Picture than Crash.....easily.
Posted by: nancy | January 08, 2006 at 11:16 PM
A Comment to G Chin is that not just is Good Night and Good Luck an amazing picture but go to rottentomatoes.com or movies.com and see which is a more criticaly acclaimed movie Crash or Good Night and Good Luck. I am sticking with Munich but my second favorite is Good Night and Good Luck. The movie of the top candidates for best picture has the most positive reviews for it. So dont sell Good Night and Good Luck short it is a great movie which I hope has a better chance at best picture than Crash. I own Crash and love it but it is not better than Good Night and Good Luck but it is more of a fan favorite because it is written very sharpley to hit you emotionaly while Good NIght and Good Luck is like Micheal Manns Insider. Serious and presented as if it were journalism cut out the emotional wallop.
Posted by: Ronald Eldred | January 08, 2006 at 10:29 PM
Crash is good but I think that when the Brokeback Mountian buzz wheres off it could be Munich that pushes its way to maybe a win if nominated. Munich is doing pretty good for a hard sell at the boxoffice and it is Steven Spielberg. If it gets nominated I think it could nab the oscar. I have seen Munich 3 times and each time the audience has grown larger and came out more pleased and ready to talk. I think that the Munich campaign will start now that it has gone wide. Not to mention I read that when it screened for the Academy it was very well recieved. The hardest obstacle in Munichs way is getting the Best Picture Nom, after that watch out because I believe it will pick up steam.
Posted by: Ronald Eldred | January 08, 2006 at 10:16 PM
I actually agree with Tom. I see Crash as being the only movie that has any momentum and critical praise possible to overtake BM at the finish (I'm not saying that it will, but if any movie will, it will be Crash). Other wannabes don't have all the factors going for it. Good Night and Good Luck, which is the only other movie I see that will definitely reap a nomination for Best Picture, doesn't have the overall critical praise backing it, many seeing it as a movie that was solely made to try and win Oscars. Capote seems to have some momentum, but again I think it will only bolster a Best Actor win for Hoffman more than anything else. Again it doesn't seem to have the overwhelming critical clout behind it that either BM or Crash has. A History of Violence is the only other move that has as much critical backing as BM or Crash but doesn't seem to have the same "Hollywood" backing of either BM or Crash. All others pictures have other baggage hindering a win. I still think BM is going to win and deserves to win, just that Crash is the only other movie that can take the big prize. There have been weirder things in Oscar history (think Chariots of Fire...)
Posted by: G Chin | January 08, 2006 at 10:10 PM
I agree with Adam. Other than best picture and maybe best screenplay...what other awards would it win? I have never seen a film win best picture with two awards. The film, THE AVIATOR failed last year because it flat out wasn't a great film; it was sprawling, horribly edited, emotionaly aloof etc. BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN has everything going for it...it's fresh, well acted, superbly shot and edited and cherry on the cack is that emotional, emphatic ending. Hey, AMERICAN BEAUTY, GLADIATOR, CHICAGO etc all held on...i think Brokeback will too. (even though I think CRASH is a better film.)
Posted by: Trevor | January 08, 2006 at 10:05 PM
While you put up a good argument for your case, I highly doubt that Crash will prevail on Oscar night. I do think it will be nominated (the guilds are proof of that). My reasoning for it not winning is this: the Golden Globes snub. I know, it may seem arbitrary and unimportant in a year that the Globe nominations were decidedly a little weird. But only ONE time since the Globes started giving out nominations in 1956 has the eventual Oscar winner not been nominated at the Globes. That was The Sting in 1973. Chariots of Fire and Gandhi don't count since they both won the Foreign Film category---which included English-language foreign films at that time---and were ineligible for the Best Picture award. While anything can conceivably happen, the records stand against it. And personally, I would be very disappointed if it won. I thought Crash was a noble effort with a lot of high-minded ideals, but in my opinion, it was very heavy-handed and repeatedly hit the viewer over the head with its "message". It should have been handled with a little more subtlety.
Posted by: shane | January 08, 2006 at 09:16 PM
"Help me!"
Why do you need help? Just say what you believe.
"Every time I come close to summoning the courage, I wimp out."
Maybe that means you're a wimp.
"Smart pundits don't make reckless calls, I remind myself."
They do, often. Look at Poland and Munich. He may be dead wrong, but he has the courage of his convictions and I admire that. Why don't you take a punt? It'd be better than this self-indulgent fence-sitting.
"If only . . . if only I could . . . Oh, should I? . . . Naw."
Oh for gods sake. Take a stand and stick by it and stop trying to have your cake and eat it. If you love your picture, then say so and abide by the consequences if you're wrong.
And don't go looking for credit if Crash wins. If you don't truly stand up for it, then you don't deserve to reap any credit for your predictions.
Posted by: spotted reptile | January 08, 2006 at 08:52 PM
I walked out of Crash feeling deep down that I had witnessed a special movie. I just knew
the movie would rank as my favorite of the year. I'm not surprised by the late surge of its potential so much as I am by the fact that it took a while for this film to catch on with the academy. While I like Brokeback Mountain and appreciate its message (especially as a gay man), my heart lies with Crash and I will not be surprised to see it take best picture. This is such a great, universal message, and I think in the end the Academy will recognize this. Don't miss this amazing film!
Posted by: Sean Berry | January 08, 2006 at 08:44 PM
Just a thought - those Oscar trackers, critics, and journalists who actually have the fame and power to affect the Oscar race often do (via tv shows, articles, websites, interviews, etc), cuz why OscarWatch when you can OscarPlay? It's more fun and fulfilling to be part of the game don't you think?
Posted by: Antony | January 08, 2006 at 08:11 PM
The moment Crash ended I knew it could be a major Oscar contender. It was the film I felt most passionate about all year, because it affected me the most. If Crash came out on top come March 5th I would be ecstatic as would a lot of film lovers, because Crash is the type of film that never leaves you.
Posted by: Christopher Shappley | January 08, 2006 at 07:23 PM
One more thing: Just because Big Oprah keeps on re-broadcasting her "Crash" episode (which I think is totally ludicrous) does not mean that it will win. So Booooo yah!!!!
Posted by: Celine | January 08, 2006 at 06:34 PM
How exactly will Crash win best picture? What categories can it carry? I don't think it'll win ANY categories, much less best picture. Seriously. If anything is going to overtake Brokeback, it will be Goonight and Good Luck, since George Clooney will be riding high with 4 noms and everyone will be loving him. And GNaGL could conceivably win picture, director, screenplay, cinematography and and also editing and/or art direction if it sweeps, enough to take it all the way. I don't think it could happen, but it's the only plausible situation. I think Brokeback will end up winning picture, director, screenplay, possibly one or more acting awards (most likely supporting actress), and maybe also editing and/or score. It's the only film with a big nomination tally (8, 9 or 10) that could carry into a big enough win tally (4, 5 or 6) for a best picture win to happen. Crash, at most, could get noms for picture, director, screenplay, Dillon, Howard, editing, and song - 7 nods - and that would be incredibly generous. More likely are just 4 or 5, without even a director nod, and that is just not enough. It is Brokeback vs GNaGL, period.
Posted by: Adam Keller | January 08, 2006 at 06:05 PM