As expected, "Brokeback Mountain" looms over all Oscar rivals with the most Oscar nominations (eight), which makes it the official front-runner for the top Academy Award.

For the past 20 years the movie with the most nominations has won best picture 17 times. However, one of those notable exceptions occurred only last year when "Million Dollar Baby" shot down "The Aviator," which had won best drama picture at the Golden Globes just like "Brokeback" has this year.

Can any film actually ambush the gay cowboys now? Yes, two have the potential — "Crash" and "Good Night, and Good Luck."

In fact, many upsets could occur in many top categories on March 5. All over Hollywood you can hear Oscar voters whining, "This is the most boring Oscar year ever! Well, one thing's for sure! I am NOT voting for (fill in the blank)."

The blank is any one of the current, clear front-runners: "Brokeback" and Ang Lee for best picture and director, Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Capote") for best actor, Reese Witherspoon ("Walk the Line") for best actress, George Clooney ("Syriana") for supporting actor and Rachel Weisz ("The Constant Gardener") for supporting actress.

Disgust is rampant, but not over the worthiness of those contenders who've dominated the gold derby's early awards. Academy members — notorious rascals all — seem to be infected by a contagious itch to mix things up. Never before have I sensed such a widespread rebellious spirit.

OK, let's be bad and dish who got snubbed at Oscar noms:

"Match Point" star Scarlett Johansson struck out again. What do those academy voters have against the poor gal, eh? Her performance in previous best picture nominee "Lost in Translation" was what made that film so luminous and she was the only principal who was truly lost on Oscar night since she wasn't even in the running.

"Walk the Line" wasn't nominated for best picture, just as I had warned you. Oscar voters love musical biopics, yes, and it was probably cited on most members' ballots, but it was probably ranked in the No. 3, 4 or 5 slots. Since the academy uses a preferential ballot, only No. 1 and 2 votes really count. And it was clear from the mood in Hollywood that "Munich" had a sufficient core of adamant supporters who'd rank it higher on their ballots.

It was also the preferential ballot that defeated Russell Crowe ("Cinderella Man"). The bad boy crossed a line when he threw that phone at a hotel employee last year. It wasn't like he was taking a swing at a paparazzo again. He was striking out at Everyman — just the kind of chap who used to go to see Russell Crowe flicks.

But the only snub that really shocks me today is Don Cheadle. Had the "Crash" star been nominated for best supporting actor, he might have won.

Now it's time for me to take a bow and brag about my overall forecast. I scored 26 correct predictions out of 30 guesses in six categories. Huzzah!

Hmm. What should we make of the SAG results? It looks like Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Capote") must now be considered a lock for the best actor Oscar. He repeated his Golden Globe victory just like supporting actress champ Rachel Weisz ("The Constant Gardener"), who sure looks like a good Oscar bet too. But she's no slam-dunk.

Voters often like to give away at least one acting award with best picture. Usually, it's in a lead acting category — Hilary Swank in "Million Dollar Baby" or Russell Crowe in "Gladiator" — but failing that, voters often target that supporting actress slot (Catherine Zeta-Jones in "Chicago," Jennifer Connelly in "A Beautiful Mind," Juliette Binoche in "The English Patient"). So if "Brokeback Mountain" trots across Oscar's best picture finish line as expected, it may very well take Michelle Williams along for the ride, even if it does leave those gay cowboys stranded back in that chilly pup tent where, come to think of it, they may not mind a bit.

Reese Witherspoon's ("Walk the Line") triumph over Felicity Huffman ("Transamerica") pushes her ahead in the best actress contest, yes, but both stars won lead actress Golden Globes (Felicity for drama, Reese for comedy/musical) and SAG voters had an option this year that academy voters don't: they gave Felicity awards in their TV categories for "Desperate Housewives."

Photo: "I can't believe you just asked that!" Sandra Bullock yelled at a reporter backstage when he asked her, "Who are you wearing?" when the cast of "Crash" met the press to discuss their SAG victory for best ensemble. Upon finishing their remarks about the film, Sandra added, "Are there any more clothing questions?"
(Tom O'Neil / The Envelope)

Now that Ang Lee has won the Directors Guild of America award, it looks like he'll nab his elusive Oscar at long last since more than 80% of guild winners go on to claim academy gold next. The one wild card is the unusual awards calendar this year. In the past there were usually just two weeks or so between DGA and Oscars, so it was easy to see how both industry honors tracked the same trend in industry views about the best film work of the year. Now, however, there's a vast gap of nearly a month and a half, which is plenty of time for bored Oscar voters to change their minds, which they often do. But not in the directors' race. Back in the 1950s and 1960s there used to be a similar huge time gap between the two kudos and the DGA winners usually won the Oscar for best director too.

However, "Brokeback" producers beware: in those years there were frequent splits at the DGA and Oscars between the films winning best director and picture. Statistically speaking, "Brokeback's" odds are still good that it will win best pic, but the ominous splits are worth noting — for example, George Stevens winning both DGA and the director's Oscar for "A Place in the Sun" while the best picture Academy Award went to "An American in Paris"; John Ford winning director kudos for "The Quiet Man" while the best picture Oscar was awarded to "The Greatest Show on Earth"; George Stevens earning both director awards for "Giant" while the top Oscar went to "Around the World in 80 Days"; Mike Nichols nabbing both director trophies for "The Graduate" while "In the Heat of the Night" won best picture at the Academy Awards.

What's remarkable about the triumph of "Quinceanera" at the Sundance Film Festival awards announced on Saturday night is that the movie about a pregnant teen Latina won both of the top prizes for best dramatic films — the one determined by a mass audience vote and the other bestowed by the fest's jury of pro filmmakers. There was also an overlap in the choices made by the fest jury and audience for best documentary: "God Grew Tired of Us," about Sudanese refugees in the U.S.

"It's never happened before," fest director Geoffrey Gilmore noted. "It's happened in one category, but never in both."

"Quinceanera" was also shown recently at Kinderfilmfest in Berlin.
(Kitchen Sink Entertainment)

Considering how crazy actors are as a breed, it's maddening trying to predict the Screen Actors Guild Awards (Sunday, 8 p.m. ET/PT on TBS and TNT), which are decided by 100,000 union members nationwide.

But here's your proof of what a lunatic awards nut I am. From the full list of nominees, here are my predictions.

When compiling my predictions for Tuesday morning's Academy Award nominations, I try to keep foremost in mind the preferential balloting system used by the motion picture academy. Although members list five choices in each category, for the most part only No. 1 and No. 2-ranked votes really count. To read more about "the rooting factor," click here. Also, it's important to keep this in mind: all academy members vote on best picture, but other categories are decided by peer group. Only actors vote on actors, directors on directors. When choosing winners later, all members get to vote in the vast majority of races.

"Brokeback" will lead with the most nominations — 10: picture, director, actor, supporting actor, supporting actress, adapted screenplay, score, editing, art direction and cinematography. Over the past 20 years the movie with the most bids has won best picture 17 times.

BEST PICTURE
"Brokeback Mountain"
"Capote"
"Crash"
"Good Night and Good Luck"
"Munich"

There are four good bets: "Brokeback," "Crash," "Good Night" and "Munich." They all have solid cores of support sufficient to result in nabbing the requisite 800-plus high-ranked votes from the academy's 5,800 members. The fifth slot will go to "Capote," "The Constant Gardener" or "Walk the Line." I have a hunch that "Capote" and "Gardener" have more No. 1 or No. 2 votes than "Walk the Line," which is probably ranked third or fourth on everybody's ballots except those associated with the film, its studio or its participants. Since "Capote" has registered consistent voter strength at every guild award and BAFTA, I'll go with it.

BEST DIRECTOR
Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"
Paul Haggis, "Crash"
George Clooney, "Good Night and Good Luck"
David Cronenberg, "A History of Violence"
Steven Spielberg, "Munich"

Other top contenders are Bennett Miller ("Capote") and Fernando Meirelles ("The Constant Gardener"). Miller's a rookie, so his voter support is weak. Almost always there are one or two films on this list that don't line up with best picture. My guess is that's how Cronenberg sneaks in now.

Photo: Terrence Howard is a fascinating wild card this year. He could pop up in both the lead and supporting actor races — or neither.
(Paramount Classics)

If there will be an upset in the Oscar best picture race, the last chance for a sneak peek is at the Directors Guild of America awards this Saturday. DGA is the most accurate forecaster of the top Oscar by far. Since 1970, more than 85% of the films that won that guild kudo went on to be voted best picture by academy members (30 in 35 years).

Sure, "Brokeback Mountain's" Ang Lee is favored to triumph, but he already claimed this prize five years ago for "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon." Voters have permission to skip over him now if they wish. Thus an upset by George Clooney ("Good Night, and Good Luck") or Paul Haggis ("Crash") is possible. The other two nominees, Bennett Miller ("Capote") and Steven Spielberg ("Munich"), can safely fake a flu and stay at home.

How likely is an upset? It doesn't happen often, but it happens. Sometimes Oscar and DGA voters get bored with early best picture favorites and suddenly hop on a new horse in the home stretch. That's what occurred with "The Sting" and "Midnight Cowboy," for example. Both were snubbed by the Golden Globes ("The Sting" wasn't even nominated for best pic) and top film critics' awards. Only when they pulled off shockeroos at DGA did we get a hint that they were real players at the Oscars.

So, what about this year? Can "Good Night" or "Crash" really do it?

The annual roundup of top Grammy-nominated tunes is now out in music stores. It's one of the best CDs to buy each year because it contains top contenders for record and song of the year plus best pop vocal performance, etc. Proceeds benefit MusicCares and the Grammy Foundation. Among the 21 tracks: Gorillaz's "Feel Good," Green Day's "Boulevard of Broken Dreams," Mariah Carey's "It's Like That," Rascal Flatts' "Bless the Broken Road," John Legend's "Ordinary People," Jack Johnson's "Sitting, Waiting, Wishing" and Rob Thomas' "Lonely No More." Learn more about the disc on www.grammy.com.

Photo: All on one CD: Grammy contenders Foo Fighters, Rolling Stones, Kelly Clarkson, Coldplay, Death Cab for Cutie, Beck, Seal and U2.
(NARAS / SonyBMG)

OK, here's the easiest award category ever to predict. Which of these nominees will win GLAAD's award for best film in wide release — "Brokeback Mountain," "Capote," "The Family Stone," "Kiss Kiss Bang Bang" or "Rent"? Considering the kudo is bestowed by the Gay & Lesbian Alliance Against Defamation, it's easy imagining cowboys at the podium accepting a prize honoring mainstream media for fair, accurate and inclusive representations of gays and lesbians in film and TV.

Or wait a minute — maybe these honors aren't so predictable! After all, last year "Will & Grace" lost best comedy series to "Sex and the City." So suspense is one more reason to tune in when the kudofest is telecast on two networks for the first time ever: Logo on April 15 and VH1 on April 16. The other reasons to watch have to do with GLAAD usually staging an awards show full of flashy drama and naughty fun. It's always one of the most entertaining award shows of the year. GLAAD.com has posted the complete list of nominees online.