And the Oscar nominees will be . . .
When compiling my predictions for Tuesday morning's Academy Award nominations, I try to keep foremost in mind the preferential balloting system used by the motion picture academy. Although members list five choices in each category, for the most part only No. 1 and No. 2-ranked votes really count. To read more about "the rooting factor," click here. Also, it's important to keep this in mind: all academy members vote on best picture, but other categories are decided by peer group. Only actors vote on actors, directors on directors. When choosing winners later, all members get to vote in the vast majority of races.
"Brokeback" will lead with the most nominations — 10: picture, director, actor, supporting actor, supporting actress, adapted screenplay, score, editing, art direction and cinematography. Over the past 20 years the movie with the most bids has won best picture 17 times.
BEST PICTURE
"Brokeback Mountain"
"Capote"
"Crash"
"Good Night and Good Luck"
"Munich"
There are four good bets: "Brokeback," "Crash," "Good Night" and "Munich." They all have solid cores of support sufficient to result in nabbing the requisite 800-plus high-ranked votes from the academy's 5,800 members. The fifth slot will go to "Capote," "The Constant Gardener" or "Walk the Line." I have a hunch that "Capote" and "Gardener" have more No. 1 or No. 2 votes than "Walk the Line," which is probably ranked third or fourth on everybody's ballots except those associated with the film, its studio or its participants. Since "Capote" has registered consistent voter strength at every guild award and BAFTA, I'll go with it.
BEST DIRECTOR
Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"
Paul Haggis, "Crash"
George Clooney, "Good Night and Good Luck"
David Cronenberg, "A History of Violence"
Steven Spielberg, "Munich"
Other top contenders are Bennett Miller ("Capote") and Fernando Meirelles ("The Constant Gardener"). Miller's a rookie, so his voter support is weak. Almost always there are one or two films on this list that don't line up with best picture. My guess is that's how Cronenberg sneaks in now.
Photo: Terrence Howard is a fascinating wild card this year. He could pop up in both the lead and supporting actor races — or neither.
(Paramount Classics)
BEST ACTOR
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"
Terrence Howard, "Hustle and Flow"
Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"
Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"
David Strathairn, "Good Night and Good Luck"
Sure, Russell Crowe ("Cinderella Man") and Jeff Daniels ("Squid and the Whale") have solid support, but I think Terrence Howard has more of those high-ranked votes. Crowe's name will appear on more actors' ballots over all, yes, but in that third, fourth or fifth position, methinks. If this process used a weighted ballot instead of a preferential one, Crowe would get in, but it doesn't.
BEST ACTRESS
Joan Allen, "The Upside of Anger"
Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"
Charlize Theron, "North Country"
Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"
Ziyi Zhang ("Memoirs of a Geisha") and Keira Knightley ("Pride & Prejudice") are major rivals as well, but Joan Allen has demonstrated strong academy support in the past, nabbing three previous acting nominations. Besides, "The Upside of Anger" was one of the earliest DVDs sent to the academy's acting branch, so members probably watched it, forming an early alliance with her again.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
George Clooney, "Syriana"
Matt Dillon, "Crash"
Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man"
Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain"
Bob Hoskins, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
Terrence Howard could sneak in here as well as best actor. His "Crash" costar Don Cheadle also has an excellent shot here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, "Junebug"
Maria Bello, "A History of Violence"
Catherine Keener, "Capote"
Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener"
Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain"
Poor Scarlett Johansson ("Match Point")! Snubbed again!
Here's my picks:
Best Picture:
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night and Good Luck
Walk The Line
(Sorry; but, I don't simply see Munich making it into the final five when their were so many other political thrillers this past year, i.e. Constant Gardener, Syriana, etc.
Best Director:
George Clooney Good Night and Good Luck
David Cronenberg A History of Violence
Paul Haggis Crash
Ang Lee Brokeback Mountain
Steven Speilberg Munich
(There is always a director who's film is not nominated for Best Picture and is nominated in this category and unfortunately I think that slot will go to Steven Speilberg. Close though)
Best Actor:
Russel Crowe Cinderella Man
Phillip Seymour Hoffman Capote
Heath Ledger Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix Walk The Line
David Strathain Good Night and Good Luck
Best Actress:
Joan Allen The Upside of Anger
Judi Dench Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman Transamerica
Charlize Theron North Country
Reese Witherspoon Walk The Line
I could easily have put Ziyl Zhang for Memoirs of a Geisha in here; but, I give the fifth slot to Joan Allen. The Academy adores her (nods for Nixon, The Crucible, The Contender)
Best Supporting Actor:
George Clooney Syriana
Matt Dillon Crash
Paul Giamatti Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhal Brokeback Mountain
Ed Harris A History of Violence (let's face it we need one big surprise nominee somewhere down the ballot and because of that I give Ed Harris a nod for History)
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams Junebug
Maria Bello A History of Violence
Frances McDormand North Country
Rachel Weisz The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams Brokeback Mountain
Posted by: richmeisterg | January 30, 2006 at 11:34 PM
Let's face it..."Walk the Line" is a white man's "Ray" and as I watched the film I kept thinking of Jamie Fox and how much better that film was. And Resse Witherspoon didn't have to stretch too much for her part...she's from Tennesse, listened to country music all her life...she is one gene away from June Carter so acting like her wasn't a metamorphosis. "Crash" is a fine movie but I kept wondering how the same people in the film kept crashing into each other. In real life, what's the chance of that happinging in a city the size of LA? In other words, "Crash" was contrived and I felt manipulated. The two best performances of the year were Heath Ledger and Seymore Hoffman. I would not want to choose in the best actor catagory. Best Picture: easy...Brokeback Mountain. I know that puts all you homophobes' butts in a sling, but this is a picture that will stand the test of time. As long as there is lonliness, betrayal, heart ach, longing, denial and hope for redemption in the human soul, this picture will touch you and leave you changed. That alone is reason to call it a classic. But who will win the Best Picture: Probably "Crash" because Hollywood and much of America isn't ready for queers getting an oscar unless they are firmly in the closet.
Posted by: Mark David | January 30, 2006 at 09:12 PM
It's almost here! The official nominations!! Tomorrow morning.
I agree with Tom that BBM will get the most (10) followed by Walk The Line(8), Capote(7), Crash(7), Good Night, and Good Luck. (6).
Posted by: Mad Professah | January 30, 2006 at 04:58 PM
Do people really believe that anyone will win over Reese or PS Hoffman? Even though Felicity Huffman and Heath Ledger's performances were probably the best of the year, the Academy will honor Witherspoon - as it does all its A-list females, and Hoffman will win because he SHOULD have won for Boogie Nights or the Talented Mr. Ripley, or a slew of other supporting roles. The rule of Hollywood law is and always will be - give the award to those that deserve to win because of the dues they've paid and the career they've cultivated in tinseltown - not for the actual best performance of the year. The gold will go to Witherspoon, Hoffman, Giamatti, and Weisz.
Posted by: E.R. | January 30, 2006 at 02:48 PM
c'mon people brokeback mountain or as i like to call it.... boys dont cry2 is absolute rubbish, its crap... how bout match point... the film is brilliant, shouldnt we all be celebrating the return to brilliance of the woodman... the prodical son has returned.... oh and if mr. seymour hoffman doesnt win best actor then these voter should all be banned as voters, best male performance in many many years.... brokeback mountain, WHAT A JOKE!
Posted by: matt | January 30, 2006 at 12:09 PM
I don't want to start a big fight here, but I really think that statistics don't apply to this award thing. Call me naive but I actually think that each year each group of voters vote for the movie they think deserves the award they give, that is not the same thing as saying they vote for the best pic, they vote for the movie, actor or director they want to see receiving the award.
In the Oscar race something that I've been watching for some time is that if a movie gets critical and audience support in a consistent way it wins Best Pic. That doesn't mean that the biggest grossing movie of the year is going to win nor that the most critically acclaimed movie is going to win, is the one with the best combination of both, with a slight advantage towards the critics.
For example, I think that if The Aviator had a biggest support from the public it would've win for best pic, but it didn't. And this year I believe that considering the time gap between awards the deciding factor is going to be the box office. I can assure you without a doubt that if Brokeback Mountain keeps doing good business and by the time Oscar ballots are due it reaches between 70 to 80 million it is going to sweep Oscar night. Now, if the movie starts to go down in the box office and it reaches the ussual so so business of any art pic, then it's anyone's game, and it might as well be Crahs'.
Posted by: Jon | January 30, 2006 at 11:41 AM
I think it just means that Brokeback is surfing a wave of political correctness. Not that it's not a good movie but c'mon - is it really all that? Awards should recognize the best movies, not the best messages. (And I don't disagree that it's a good message).
Posted by: candy | January 29, 2006 at 10:53 PM
Thank you, John M.
".... don't understand the argument that if "Brokeback Mountain" were about heterosexuals, nobody would care about it. If "Brokeback Mountain" were about heterosexuals, it would be a totally different movie. "
If King Kong were about two Manhattanites it would have premiered on Lifetime...
If one of the characters in E.T. were not an alien would it have sold even one ticket?
If the ship had not sunk in Titanic would it even have made the news?
I'll stop here....
yarddog
Posted by: yarddog | January 29, 2006 at 04:35 PM
I don't understand the argument that if "Brokeback Mountain" were about heterosexuals, nobody would care about it. If "Brokeback Mountain" were about heterosexuals, it would be a totally different movie. The central conflict of the film as we know it would be gone, so every scene would have a different dynamic. Yes, any given movie will be different if its entire premise changes ... How does that discredit that movie that was actually made?
Posted by: John M. | January 29, 2006 at 03:13 PM
Walk The Line is the one movie this year that I went to see and then immediately got online and emailed all my friends to encourage them to see it. I had a visceral reaction to the film, one I cannot quite understand. It was a film about love, yes, but also about second chances, redemption and the power of true commitment. It also just made me feel so good when I left the theater. It's much, much more than a biography. I think even if someone didn't know who the heck Johnny Cash was, they would find a compelling story in this film. So why does everything I read say that it's "fighting for the fifth slot" or "it's on the bubble?"
And why isn't anyone really predicting The Constant Gardener - another fine film!
But EVERYONE is talking about Brokeback, a film that, had it been made about two heterosexuals, wouldn't be getting all this attention. The "message" of the movie is what is getting the hype.
Posted by: Ida | January 29, 2006 at 01:34 PM
>> "(Brokeback) is a typical love story and the only reason for the hype is because of the homosexual theme. That's it!" -- Sean
All love stories are typical because love is typical, but that doesn't negate the film's quality. "Walk the Line" also is a typical love story, and the only reason for the hype is because it's about Johnny Cash and June Carter.
In "Brokeback's" case, the homosexual theme makes it an atypical story. The characters' orientation causes the tension, affects the developments, drives the dialogue and gives the piece a relevant contemporary significance. It's a pretty crucial detail.
Posted by: John M. | January 29, 2006 at 09:32 AM
I will get down to the point.
BEST PICTURE
Munich, Good Night And Good Luck, Capote, Walk the Line, Brokeback
Winner: Brokeback (This is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen. Think about it, this is a typical love story and the only reason for the hype is because of the homosexual theme. That's it!
BEST ACTOR
Hoffman, Pheonix, Strathairn, Ledger, Howard
Winner: Pheonix (Hoffman and Ledger deserve to win, and I think any other year they would have, but my nod goes to Pheonix. He does a better job in this role than Jamie Foxx did in Ray.
BEST ACTRESS
Witherspoon, Knightley, Theron, Dench, Huffman
Winner: Witherspoon. She gave the performance of a lifetime portraying June Carter Cash, and she deserves to win. Huffman is another actress who would take home the gold any other year, but this is the year of the Cash!
Posted by: Sean Sanford | January 29, 2006 at 07:02 AM
I will get down to the point.
BEST PICTURE
Munich, Good Night And Good Luck, Capote, Walk the Line, Brokeback
Winner: Brokeback (This is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen. Think about it, this is a typical love story and the only reason for the hype is because of the homosexual theme. That's it!
BEST ACTOR
Hoffman, Pheonix, Strathairn, Ledger, Howard
Winner: Pheonix (Hoffman and Ledger deserve to win, and I think any other year they would have, but my nod goes to Pheonix. He does a better job in this role than Jamie Foxx did in Ray.
BEST ACTRESS
Witherspoon, Knightley, Theron, Dench, Huffman
Winner: Witherspoon. She gave the performance of a lifetime portraying June Carter Cash, and she deserves to win. Huffman is another actress who would take home the gold any other year, but this is the year of the Cash!
Posted by: Sean Sanford | January 29, 2006 at 07:01 AM
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN follows the line of obscure films previous winners such as The Lost Weekend, Midnight Cowboy, and American Beauty. And the award is going to be for this talented people who tock the courage of making this film.
WALK THE LINE, CAPOTE, MUNICH, THE PRODUCERS, THE NEW WORLD, HISTORY OF VIOLENCE,THE SQUID & THE WHALE.
Posted by: J. A. | January 28, 2006 at 11:57 PM
The Oscar (nomination) race this year is more exciting than most years. SO much debate! Does Reese belong in supporting? Does George really deserve recognition? On and on and on...
One thing remains true- we ALL have our thoughts.
Here are mine.
Mr. Phoenix deserves to win for best actor- PERIOD! Watch the movie if your old enough to remember Mr. Cash during those years the film covers. Close your eyes. You would swear that it's him. Then watch him. Again- he has every possible nuance of Johnny perfectly done. Great work Mr. Hoffman- but I choose Mr. Phoenix.
Felicity or Reese? Reese should be supporting. Love her but Felicty goes the long haul.
Amy Adams does the most amazing work. Her line about "God loves you.." sounds like something that George W, would use in an address to the nation about Iraq! HOWEVER- It's Sandra Bullock for me. In just 3 scenes she completely floored me! Sure her speach out the locksmith is pivotal to the movie as a whole but her phone call scene DEVISTATED me. Who hasn't at some time felt that way? Totally convinced me. Reminds me of Beatrice Straight in Network. Always knew she was a good actress who made it look easy. This PROVES how good she is and doesn't need a platform role to demonstrate just HOW good (remember folks- Andy Griffith, John Wayne and many others just played themselves too- right?).
Speaking of George... your performance, producing and directing and co-writing should all be nominated. But no can do studman. In another year you would have cleaned up. Not this year, Long past due is Paul G. He did another spectacular job and dammit (!) didn't even have to do Saturday Night Live to get a nomnation!
Ang Lee. Overdue. 'Nuff said. Also said that but Altman but who the hell ever cared about what I said!
Best Picture: TA-DA! CRASH. Liked Brokeback ALOT. CRASH affected me more. Stop and think about it- does a film that makes you think for weeks about it make it great? NO. But one that can do that and make you rethink WHO YOUR ARE NOW and WHAT YOU WANT TO BE and does so, so well... sorry- this one did it for me. Oprah- call me honey. I got the getto on this and I ain't black 'nuff to talk the talk or walk the walk but gave me insight to think I could girl!
Posted by: Old Oscar YOUNGster | January 28, 2006 at 11:16 PM
Is Peter Jackson being snubbed as Best Director for King Kong? What gives after such a wonderful film? If he's included here -- as he should be -- then Kong should be up for Best Picture as well.
Posted by: Zenophon Abraham | January 28, 2006 at 04:42 PM
Just go ahead and do it...Give George Clooney the "Male Maleness and Eye Candy Award", and "Best Fun Pal Award"--no one will argue with that....and he can act very well--but does he hold a candle to any generation's Ideal of a Best Actor and Leading Man?
He "ain't no" Cary Grant, Gary Cooper,Sir Anthony Hopkins, Harrison Ford, Robert Mitchum, Spencer Tracy, or Jimmy Stewart.....his portrayals don't match Heath Ledger's or Jake Gyllenhaal's; even Felicity Huffman plays a best supporting ACTOR better than he does this year.
Aww hell, let's just give him "Best All Around" and the first page in the yearbook! He's just too cool!
--And this is coming from a person who likes good ole George!
Posted by: Robert the Idealist | January 28, 2006 at 02:54 PM
Just reading everyone's comments and just want to tell the people who are rooting for Jeff Daniels - I ABSOLUTElY AGREE. He has long been my favorite actor. He can hold his own opposite Jim Carey ( and in my opinion was the funnier one in "Dumb and Dumber) and is a true professional. My only worry is that if nominated my heart would break because I don't think the academy will give it to him. It's so strange to me that I could care that much for someone I don't even know but I think it would make me as elated as I was when the Red Sox beat the Yankees and went on to win the World Series. At any rate, I hope the Oscars aren't as predictable as they were in previous years. "The Squid and the Whale", I feel, was an absolutely perfect movie. It really didn't miss a beat and it should be not be overlooked.
Posted by: Emily Lewis | January 28, 2006 at 12:33 PM
I'm anticipating more of a "Brokeback" sweep than most people are ...
Picture is a given. Director is, too. Sorry, but George Clooney needs to do a little more than make a black-and-white film and look good for his age.
Heath Ledger probably will win, but Hoffman could steal it because he has more behind him. But the supporting actor trophy is Jake Gyllenhaal's to lose. He had a crucial and difficult role and was the heart of the year's best film. How can that compare to George Clooney's bit part in "Syriana" or Matt Dillon's handful of scenes in "Crash"? If it doesn't go to Jake, it will go to Paul Giamatti, and only because he should have been nominated for "Sideways."
Michelle Williams and Anne Hathaway will both be nominated, but Amy Adams will win.
"Brokeback" will take screenplay, score, cinematography, editing and art direction.
Posted by: John M | January 28, 2006 at 11:55 AM
reese witherspoon's mediocre june carter in walk the line is a supporting role most hyped to become an oscar best actress award front-runner ever in the academy awards history. sigh!
Posted by: richard | January 28, 2006 at 07:14 AM
The assertion that Anne Hathaway was the weak link in "Brokeback Mountain" is just plain wrong. She's no less inspired than anyone else in that extraordinary cast.
Posted by: Dorothy | January 28, 2006 at 01:57 AM
Totally agree about the Thandie Newton question - why not! I was really impressed by her, Terrence Howard & Matt Dillon's scene's in Crash the most. The scene with Newton and Dillon was suprisingly and profoundly moving and intellegent. I wasn't moved like this in any other film this year - even though Crash wasn't my favourite film. I sort of predict the following:
Best Pic
Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener
Crash
Good Night, And Good Luck
Walk The Line
Alts: Munich, King Kong, The Squid & The Whale or Cinderella Man
Best Director
Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
George Clooney - Good Night, And Good Luck
Paul Haggis - Crash
Peter Jackson - King Kong
Steven Spielberg - Munich
Alts: Meirelles (Gardener), Cronenburg (Violence), Mangold (Walk The Line), Miller (Capote)
(Have a bizzare feeling that the Academy's love for actor-turn-director stuff will possibly turn Ang Lee into the new Marty Scorcese - due to that shock loss to Soderface last time - and give Clooney and gong, even though Brokeback will win Best Picture - hope not, Ang deserve's this)
Best Actor
Russell Crowe - Cinderella Man
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk The Line
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
David Straitharn - Good Night, And Good Luck
Alt's: Howard (Hustle&Flow), Fiennes (Gardener), Daniels (Squid)
(Let's hope Jeff Daniels gets in. Howard will suffer from two-way perhaps? I think due to the 3-way between leader Hoffman and then Phoenix + Ledger that a split-vote, Brodey style shock is in store - bout time)
Best Actress
Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Keira Knightley - Pride & Prejudice
Laura Linney - The Squid & The Whale
Reese Witherspoon - Walk The Line
Alts: Zhang (Memoirs), Theron (Country), Allen (Anger), Danes (Shopgirl), Watts (Kong)
Best Supporting Actor
Matt Dillon - Crash
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
Terrence Howard - Crash
William Hurt - A History Of Violence
Alts: Clooney (Syriana), Cheadle (Crash), Hoskins (Presents), Langella (GoodNight)
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - Junebug
Mario Bello - A History Of Violence
Catherine Keener - Capote
Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain
Alts: Newton (Crash), McDormand (Country), Goodwin (Walk The Line), Linney (Squid) - if supp
Adapted Screenplay
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
A History Of Violence
Munich
Original Screenplay
The Squid & The Whale
Crash
Cinderella Man
Good Night, And Good Luck
Match Point
Sorry that took so long - but I think this year I'm interested.
Posted by: Jaye | January 27, 2006 at 11:06 PM
amy adams is gold. she has the highest chance of upsetting rachel weisz in the supporting category and she is obvious the critics favourite.
Posted by: jianhui | January 27, 2006 at 08:41 PM
I just saw "Transamerica," so I can now compare Felicity Huffman's performance with Reese Witherspoon's. Felicity Huffman had a much harder role and carried the whole movie. Reese Witherspoon was phenominal in the singing part, but she had a supporting role to Jaoquin Phoenix. Surely, Phoenix isn't going to win, so a Reese win would seem somewhat ludicrous. And, as far as Felicity just being a TV star, what were Helen Hunt and Sally Fields, along with Art Carney??
Posted by: unkie469 | January 27, 2006 at 05:40 PM
I think will there some surprises, especially in director and supporting categories. In directors categorie, Bennet seams to be that surprise, but I hope Woody Allen will pick the last nominee. And I believe Johansson is not so snubbed.
BEST PICTURE
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Walk the Line
BEST DIRECTOR
Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
Benett Miller - Capote
George Clooney - Good Night, and Good Luck.
David Croenenberg - A History of Violence
Steven Spielberg - Munich
BEST ACTOR
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
Terrence Howard - Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line
David Strathairn - Good Night, and Good Luck.
BEST ACTRESS
Joan Allen - The Upside of Anger
Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Charlize Theron - North Country
Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
George Clooney - Syriana
Matt Dillon - Crash
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
Bob Hoskins - Mrs. Henderson Presents
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bello - A History of Violence
Scarlett Johansson - Match Point
Frances McDormand - North Country
Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain
Posted by: Zanchin | January 27, 2006 at 05:31 PM