The 1,100 guests at the Screen Actors Guild Awards gala this Sunday will dine on an antipasto plate conceived by chef Alan Jackson of Somerset Catering. It consists of:

* Roasted beet cannelloni, with celery root pear puree, brie cheese mousse, baby greens, hazelnut and lavender honey

* Miso cured cod, with pickled white asparagus, orange onion marmalade, cucumber puree and opal basil vinaigrette

* Chicken white polenta goat cheese terrine, with oven roasted tomato fondue

* Mazutaki of beef, with sweet potato waffle, lightly pickled savoy cabbage, red wine and fresh horseradish

* Bicycle spoke olive-rosemary grissini

To prepare this menu, these ingredients are needed:

What happened to "Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada" in this year's Oscar derby? Does anyone have a theory? If so, click on the "Comments" link below and share it with all of us, please.

It's worth discussing. Tommy Lee Jones' directorial debut began this kudos season as an early front-runner after becoming a breakout hit at the Cannes Film Festival where it won awards for best actor and screenplay. When savvy kudos seer Pete Hammond saw it on the Croisette, he sounded loud Oscar warning bells and when I caught up with it at the Toronto Film Festival a few months later, I thought Pete was really onto something.

"Three Burials" was such a superb, chilling drama that excited film critics yapped about it all over Toronto with the same intense enthusiasm as those other fest faves, "Capote" and "Brokeback Mountain." But "Three Burials" had something extra going for it. It's something Oscar voters are usually suckers for: "Three Burials" marked the successful crossover of a studly actor to director.

That worked for George Clooney ("Good Night, and Good Luck") this year, but not Jones. Why? A few industry pros I ran into up in Toronto warned me that it might happen. One of them admired "Three Burials” but said, "It won't catch on because half of its script is in Spanish and its title is unpronounceable."

Those were the same reasons blamed for the fact that it arrived in Toronto without a distributor, something that baffled all of us waiting north of the border to see what all of the early hype was about. How could an award-winning Cannes hit that had so much pre-Oscar buzz still not have a distributor as late as September? What's wrong? One much-whispered rumor claimed that Tommy Lee Jones wanted too much money and was making too many demands on courting studios.

Regardless of the reason for the delay, "Three Burials" was scooped up at the fest by Sony Pictures Classics. One snide Oscar marketer told me at the time, "Forget about it. Sony Pictures Classics doesn't do well at the Oscars." But that's not true. Look at the success of its "Capote" this year. It'll probably score lots of Academy Award nominations — maybe even one for best picture — and its star Philip Seymour Hoffman is the one to beat for best actor. Heck, Sony Pictures Classics has even earned Oscars for foreign-language films "All About My Mother," "Talk to Her" and "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon." So what's the big deal about Spanish being spoken in some parts of "Three Burials"?

So forget that theory. Perhaps the studio got control of the film too late in the gold derby? Or maybe "Three Burials" had a flawed release schedule? Sony gave it a qualifying run in New York and L.A. for a week in mid-December, then yanked it in favor of going wide after Oscar nominations come out. That's rarely a winning strategy. It worked for "Pollock's" Marcia Gay Harden, but what other films? "Three Burials" will be released nationally on Feb. 3.

"Three Burials" was backed by a hefty blitz of "For Your Consideration" ads in the trade papers. It was screened widely to the industry and critics, receiving rave reviews from the L.A. Times, N.Y. Times, Variety and Hollywood Reporter. The L.A. Times declared: "Incisive yet supple, wrenching yet deeply pleasurable, 'The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada' easily ranks among the year's best pictures."

Are "Three Burials" Oscar chances now dead and buried? Or do you think there's a chance it could pop up among nominees to be announced on Jan. 31? If not, tell us what you think went wrong. Click "Comments" below and pipe in!

Photo: "Three Burials" had lots of full-page "For Your Consideration" ads like this one, which appeared in Variety and The Hollywood Reporter.
(Sony Pictures Classics)

The Sundance Film Festival awards won't be bestowed until Sunday, but already some real winners have emerged, if measured in buzz or acquisition payouts.

Fox Searchlight spent a record $10.5 million for the dysfunctional-family comedy "Little Miss Sunshine" starring Steve Carell, Toni Collette and Greg Kinnear. Warner Independent pledged $6 million for Michel Gondry's "The Science of Sleep," starring Gael Garcia Bernal and Charlotte Gainsbourg in a sci-fi love fantasy full of wacky dream sequences and a TV show inside Bernal's head. "Friends with Money" already had a distribution deal before unspooling as the festival's premier screening, but it generated great buzz that suggests Jennifer Aniston might make it in movies, after all.

Sundance is where the gold derby often begins for many films aiming for major critics' awards, Globes and Oscars. In 2001, "In the Bedroom" first gained kudos notice up there in the snowy Utah Mountains, winning special jury prizes for Sissy Spacek and Tom Wilkinson, then sprinted off to loftier trophies in the Oscar race where it nabbed six nominations, including bids for Spacek, Wilkinson and best picture. Special jury prize documentary champs "The Times of Harvey Milk" and "When We Were Kings" won their bouts at the Academy Awards.

Even lots of festival losers prove to be winners at other awards after gaining critical acclaim at Sundance — like "Gods and Monsters," which earned an Academy Award for screenwriter Bill Condon. "Shine" wasn't even shown in competition, but when it became a breakout hit at the fest, it snagged a distribution deal for $2.5 million and a best actor Oscar and Golden Globe for Geoffrey Rush.

Last year "Hustle & Flow" entered Sundance without a distribution deal, but ended up claiming an Audience Award plus a $9 million partnership with Paramount Classics. "The Squid and the Whale" garnered Sundance awards for both writing and directing. Recently, it was voted best screenplay by the New York Film Critics Circle and the National Society of Film Critics.

Photo: "The Science of Sleep" has a bizarre, surreal perspective similar to Michel Gondry's "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind."
(Partizan Films)

Our Envelope forum posters are having fun clashing over who they believe will win the awards bestowed by the Screen Actors Guild this Sunday.

Pay special attention to the predix of two posters, who are among our best forecasters. "Boomer" (forums moderator) and "Cederick" agree on these champs: Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Capote"), Reese Witherspoon ("Walk the Line"), Geena Davis ("Commander-in-Chief") and Felicity Huffman ("Desperate Housewives"). Also, they concur that the ensemble acting kudos for film and TV will go to "Crash" and "Lost."

But here's where they disagree:

Best supporting film actor: Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man" (Boomer); George Clooney, "Syriana" (Cederick)

Best supporting film actress: Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener" (Boomer); Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain" (Cederick)

Best TV drama actor: Ian McShane, "Deadwood" (Boomer); Alan Alda, "The West Wing" (Cederick)

Best TV comedy actor: Jason Lee, "My Name Is Earl" (Boomer); William Shatner, "Boston Legal" (Cederick)

Check out all of our posters' predictions.

The Screen Actors Guild and TNT are busy right now getting ready for Sunday's awards show. Here's what they need to do at the Shrine Auditorium to be prepared:

• Lay 12,300 square feet of red carpet in the arrivals area, edged by 526 linear feet of green hedging, as well as 11,800 square feet of black carpet in the interior Shrine entrance and the showroom.

• Drape the interior Shrine entrance with 5,500 feet of accordion-pleated fabric in a grayscale of white to black, reminiscent of the bellows of an old-fashioned black-and-white camera; and 15,000 square feet of black drape to cover the showroom walls and block sunlight.

• Have 9,960 square feet of 10-foot-high clear plastic tenting at the ready in case of inclement weather.

• Post five 10-foot copies of the SAG award statuette (technically called "The Actor") along the red carpet and onstage.

• Create six fountains onstage that will pump 300 gallons of water through 150 feet of flexible tubing by setting 50 tubes of varying lengths within six circular reflecting pools.

• Hang five eight-foot plexi and steel chandeliers from the Expo Hall’s ornate ceiling.

• Place 3,300 glasses, 2,200 pieces of cutlery and 1,100 round silver-rimmed white china chargers on 85 rectangular dinner tables and 1,700 glasses at two 16-foot beverage bars.

• Create custom table coverings from 800 yards of black silk, complemented by 1,100 silver napkins made from 200 yards of silk.

• Adorn the tables with 275 floral arrangements in an art deco style with a contemporary edge, using predominantly white flowers against darker dramatic foliage in long rectangular black-silk containers set amidst small pools of black river rock. More than 3,000 white calla lilies arched to echo the motion of the water on the stage, 3,000 white roses, 1,000 star-of-Bethlehem and 1,200 striking foliage leaves will be used for the table decor.

• Soften silver Chiavari guest chairs with 1,100 black silk seat cushions.

"The Actor" is the correct term for the Screen Actors Guild award.
(SAG)

"Brokeback Mountain" now looms even larger than all rivals in the best picture contest, having been voted the top film of 2005 by the Producers Guild of America tonight.

Six days earlier the controversial gay cowboy love story had been declared the year's best drama film by Golden Globe voters after receiving best-picture prizes previously from film-critics' groups in New York, Los Angeles, Boston and San Francisco.

Now producers have just given "Brokeback" its first major victory at the guild awards, a key next step in its march toward the Oscars. Guild members are professional filmmakers, just like Oscar voters, and the two groups share many of the same voters. That's why the guild awards have an excellent track record predicting winners at the Academy Awards.

Over the past 17 years, the Producers Guild of America has predicted the Oscar for best picture 12 times. The five exceptions:

PGA members chose "The Aviator" last year (Oscars picked "Million Dollar Baby"), "Moulin Rouge" in 2001 (Oscars: "A Beautiful Mind"), "Saving Private Ryan" in 1998 (Oscars: "Shakespeare in Love"), "Apollo 13" in 1995 (Oscars: "Braveheart") and "The Crying Game" in 1992 (Oscars: "Unforgiven").

Clearly, "Brokeback" is now far out front and poised to claim the top Oscar on March 5, although two potential spoilers still lay ahead.

One is the Directors Guild of America award, which is the guild prize that most accurately predicts the top Oscar. It'll be bestowed on Saturday, Jan. 28. There's a possibility that "Brokeback" helmer Ang Lee — who recently won DGA for "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" — could lose to George Clooney ("Good Night, and Good Luck"), considering that guild's historic love of actors-turned-directors.

DGA could also swing to longtime TV veteran Paul Haggis ("Crash") considering the guild's electorate is comprised chiefly of directors who work in television.

Another, untested factor could bedevil "Brokeback's" Oscar chances ahead — timing.

Soon the Academy Awards race will be put on hold for a month while media attention turns to the Winter Olympics. Will Oscar voters get bored with the early best picture champ and want to hail a new one? It's happened at past Oscar races, but award-watchers often got tipped off in advance by the DGA award ("Million Dollar Baby," "The Sting," "Midnight Cowboy"), which used to be bestowed in February, just a few weeks prior to the Oscars.

The directors', producers' and actors' guilds recently advanced their show dates to January, however, in order to stay in front of the Oscars, which, in turn, moved into February from March and April in order to reap better TV ratings. This year the Academy Awards telecast moved back into March in order to avoid the Olympics while PGA, DGA and SAG remained in January. In between is an unprecedented stretch of nothing happening in the gold derby.

For the first time ever the Oscar race will shut down for a month. When it resumes again, will those notoriously fickle Oscar voters still be in the saddle with those gay cowboys?

Photo: The producers guild acknowledged what a surprise commercial hit that unprecedented cowboy picture has become.
(Focus Features)

"I've seen 'Good Night, and Good Luck' three times," Harvey Weinstein told me last weekend at the BAFTA Tea. Of course, he didn't come right out and say that he, as an academy member, plans to vote for it as best picture, but he quickly brought up his love of that film when he burst into a discussion about the top Oscar race that I was having with Variety editor Tim Gray. "That's the movie that resonates the most with me right now," Harvey added, "considering what's coming out of Washington with the spying case."

Frankly, I don't know how much we can believe about what Harvey said then, considering he coyly added, "I'm too old to be chasing Oscars anymore. I'm busy building a business now, can't be concerned with all that! I had my fun in the past — had 15 or 16 best picture nominations and won a few. That was a pretty good run."

"Oh, come on!" I pooh-poohed. "You've given up on the Oscars? You're in it right now with Felicity Huffman in the best actress race!"

Harvey smiled that sly Harvey smile and added a nervous giggle, denying nothing.

Tim joined me in a good laugh and we all moved the dish on to other matters, but not before the thought hit me: did Harvey just say "15 or 16"? Can it be true that he doesn't know specifically how many best picture nominations his films have received? Wow!

There's no denying the impressive and consistent strength shown by four films across the guild awards and BAFTA: "Brokeback Mountain," "Capote," "Crash" and "Good Night, and Good Luck." Therefore, we must consider all of them locks to reap bids for best picture at the Oscars. But — hmmm — what about that fifth slot, eh? One of three films will nab it: "The Constant Gardener," "Munich" or "Walk the Line."

To determine the most likely candidate, consider the rooting factor, which I've written about in the past. It has to do with the academy's unique preferential balloting system, which is different from the form of preferential voting commonly used and endorsed by accountants. When academy voters rank their top five choices to be nominated, really only No. 1 and No. 2 votes matter for the most part.

Although "Munich's" support is not widespread, I've a hunch that it'll get more number-one votes than "Gardener" or "Walk" by tomorrow's voting deadline. Out of the academy's 5,800 voters, all the lucky fifth film needs is about 800 rooters — and I think "Munich" has that solid, albeit small, core of adamant supporters.

Photo: The fifth nominee? "Munich" has an explosive ad campaign under way plus a faithful column of academy supporters. But enough No. 1 votes?
(Universal Pictures)

Ouch! I'm starting to feel the rope burns! Enough! I'm getting besieged with e-mails from Envelopers informing me that I'm being lynched on message boards across the Internet for being anti-"Brokeback Mountain."

Hold your horses, pardners! It's my job to spin out all possible scenarios that can happen ahead in the awards derby, so that's why I make much of "Crash" and "Good Night, and Good Luck." Both ponies really have a chance of overtaking "Brokeback." That's all I'm warning you about, though perhaps too strongly. But I do that for emphasis. This race isn't over. Surely, however, "Brokeback" is moving further and further out front and is the odds-on-fave to prevail March 5, you betcha. If Internet posters think I've got something against it, they're fools. If I was betting my own coin right now, I'd put most of my moneybags on "Brokeback." But, beware . . .

It's probably safe to bet a gay cowboy's ranch that "Brokeback Mountain" will win best pic this Sunday from the Producers Guild of America, a key forecaster of the top Oscar. Over the past 17 years, the two best picture prizes have agreed 12 times. The five exceptions:

PGA members chose "The Aviator" last year (Oscars picked "Million Dollar Baby"), "Moulin Rouge" in 2001 (Oscars: "A Beautiful Mind"), "Saving Private Ryan" in 1998 (Oscars: "Shakespeare in Love"), "Apollo 13" in 1995 (Oscars: "Braveheart") and "The Crying Game" in 1992 (Oscars: "Unforgiven").

One thing is clear from their voting pattern. Voters tend to go with the early derby leaders. "The Aviator" and "Saving Private Ryan" were way out front at first, but then tripped up in the home stretch. At the start, "Apollo 13" was considered a fave to win too, but it got eclipsed by a surge from "Sense and Sensibility" in early kudos.

"Apollo" rallied right before the Academy Awards. Many pundits thought it would win. In fact, in the L.A. Times that came out on Oscar morning, the paper's top two film critics predicted the film would beat "Braveheart".

"Apollo 13" also won the paper's poll of 50 top film-industry honchos who dared to guess the best picture outcome. That tells us that producers' guild members probably thought they were riding the victorious Oscar horse too.

But what should we make of the victory of "The Crying Game" in 1992?

Photo: Those gay cowboys have nuthin' to fret about at PGA, many award watchers believe.
(Focus Features)