Fearless SAG Award predictions!
Considering how crazy actors are as a breed, it's maddening trying to predict the Screen Actors Guild Awards (Sunday, 8 p.m. ET/PT on TBS and TNT), which are decided by 100,000 union members nationwide.
But here's your proof of what a lunatic awards nut I am. From the full list of nominees, here are my predictions.
FILM CATEGORIES
BEST ACTOR: Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote" — The awards juggernaut can't be stopped.
BEST ACTRESS: Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line" — What the queen of film comedy demonstrates so impressively in this dark role is what actors admire most: emotional range.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: George Clooney , "Syriana" — Here's where he gets rewarded by his peers for being a superstar having an amazing year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Rachel Weisz , "The Constant Gardener" — Her joyous, crusading performance haunts viewers long after she dies onscreen. If she triumphs here, the recent Globe champ will probably live on at the Oscars next.
BEST ENSEMBLE: "Crash" — A hearty salute to all of the topnotch stars who agreed to small salaries and made this low-budget indie so great: Sandra Bullock, Matt Dillon, Don Cheadle, etc.
TELEVISION CATEGORIES
BEST ACTOR, TV DRAMA: Patrick Dempsey, "Grey's Anatomy" — He's one of the hottest stars of TV's hottest new series.
BEST ACTRESS, TV DRAMA: Geena Davis, "Commander-in-Chief" — Impossible not to salute the dynamic comeback of a foxy Oscar champ.
BEST TV ACTOR, TV COMEDY: William Shatner, "Boston Legal" — These days he's almost more popular as Denny Crane than as Captain Kirk.
BEST ACTRESS, TV COMEDY: Felicity Huffman, "Desperate Housewives" — As the Emmys proved, she's the coolest housewife. And Screen Actors Guild members love her because she takes her craft seriously, toiling for years in theater and working for little pay in indie films.
BEST ENSEMBLE, TV DRAMA: "Lost" — It's the ultimate ensemble series because it's got the biggest cast on primetime TV.
BEST ENSEMBLE, TV COMEDY: "Desperate Housewives" — They have no choice. Voters know that if they don't pick the housewives, Marcia Cross will kill them.
BEST ACTOR, TV MOVIE/MINI: Kenneth Branagh, "Warm Springs" — The highbrow actor's actor will prevail here for his heroic portrayal of FDR battling polio.
BEST ACTRESS, TV MOVIE/MINI: S. Epatha Merkerson, "Lackawanna Blues" — Emmy and Globe voters pointed the way for this truly winning performance of a boarding house matriarch.
Nice to see a young, beautiful actress nominated for a role in which she plays a healer of a man instead of the usual hooker/bimbo the academy loves to honor in this category. Kudos to Reese Witherspoon, who has, like fellow Southerner Julie Roberts (with the fairy tale exception of Pretty Woman), avoided the bimbo role thus far.
Posted by: Susan McCabe | January 31, 2006 at 08:52 AM
The central reason "Crash" will not win Best Picture is that it is terrible.
Posted by: Larisa | January 30, 2006 at 02:51 PM
And about George Clooney: I think he will eventually receive the Life Achievement Award. He just hasn't hit his monumental peak in acting yet, aka Russell Crowe in "A Beautiful Mind", or even Sally Field in Sybil (sp) ,Steel Magnolias.....or Marlon Brando in Streetcar Named Desire, or Godfather, or Pacino in Dog Day Afternoon, etc. Keep up the good work, George, and keep wooing the women.
Posted by: Robert the Idealist | January 30, 2006 at 11:01 AM
OOPS! I said Damon, not Dillon. My bad.
Posted by: Robert the Idealist | January 30, 2006 at 10:38 AM
Yes, I couldn't figure out what Heath Ledger was doing last night during his speech--unless he was tipsy from nerves--I hope he was not embarrassed to play gay.
Also thanks to "peopleaginstmimic" for showing me those stats. That helps put me somewhat at ease. I also think Crash received more peer votes because the ensemble represented all cultures and races, People of Color, and just the sure number of actors was at least quadruple the number in the cast of BBM.
I still vote for BBM for best picture because it changes people's perceptions about gayness and love. Crash reinforces stereotypes and only does Matt Damon's character grow and change significantly for the better in Crash. Doesn't Hollywood esteem itself to be a "change agent?"
Sign me forever the hopeful idealist. Can't we all just get along???
Posted by: Robert the Idealist | January 30, 2006 at 10:09 AM
For those of you people out there who worried sick whether BBM can still win Oscar best movie since SAG gave best ensemble cast to Crash, I say don't worry, be happy. SAG happens to have this weird trandition or should I say track record of disagreeing with Oscar on best picture every other two years. Whoa, how odd but it's true, see it for your self:
1996: English Patient (SAG: Birdcage) X
1997: Titanic (SAG: The full Monty) X
1998: Shakespeare in love (SAG: Shakespeare in love) V
1999: American beauty (SAG: American Beauty) V
2000: Gladiator (SAG: Traffic) X
2001: A beautiful mind (SAG: Gosford park) X
2002: Chicago (SAG: Chicago) V
2003: LOTR return of the king (SAG: LOTR) V
2004: Million $ baby (SAG: Sideway) X
2005: Brokeback Mountain (SAG: Crash) .......X ?? your call
But be realistic, BBM tops the MCN top critics vote chart and won GG/PG/DG, and many film critics awards. Especially DG is a real good indicator. I know some of you would like to remind everyone of what happened back in 2000 when Ang Lee won DG but lost in Oscar for both best pictuer & director. But there is fundamental difference between Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon and BBM. The Oscar voters are more likely to be able to connect and relate to BBM this time than a great but foreign language film back then (I don't recall a foreign language film ever win Oscar best picture). Ang Lee lost best director in 2000 because sentiment was with Soderburg who happened to have double director nominations that year.
Crash never attracted any attention when it was in the theatre and now suddenly it supposed to be the best picture on this beatiful planet. I think voters in SAG vote on sentiment in their own awards but go for the real front runner in Oscar race because people tend to want to vote for the likely winner, and hopefully also to be the best.
May the best film win!
Posted by: peopleaginstmimic | January 30, 2006 at 09:17 AM
"I think Heath Ledger did himself in last night at the SAG's acting embarrassed "
I don't think Heath seemed embarrassed at all. I think he stumbled a bit with an overly-long, poorly worded intro. He always seems shy and awkward on stage. Maybe he was unrehearsed but he didn't seemed embarrassed at all.
Posted by: Sam | January 30, 2006 at 06:59 AM
I would concur that a win for "Crash" was not unexpected at the SAGS, however, I don't think "Brokeback" supporters (including myself) should think that this award was just an anomoly, either. And as intensely as I disliked SPH's chilly performance in "Capote," I think Heath Ledger did himself in last night at the SAG's acting embarrassed about the film which has brought him new-found respect.
Posted by: Phil | January 30, 2006 at 06:38 AM
Thrilled for Reese, but can't shake the feeling (and I hate myself for saying this) that if I had to choose ONE performance, just ONE performance from WALK THE LINE to honor, it would have to be Joaquin Phoenix for his jaw-dropping, no holds barred portrayal of Johnny Cash. It's not that I don't think Reese is good - she is - but of the two performances his simply blew my mind and he made me a Johnny Cash fan. I own 5 Cash CD's now. Anyway, I hope the Oscars will right this wrong situation for Joaquin. HE should be the one winning everything.
Posted by: candy | January 29, 2006 at 10:50 PM
So, "Crash" won best ensemble. Good for "Crash," and also for Mr. O'Neil, whose film-awards-lunatic credentials have been vindicated, for the present, anyway. ;-)
The SAG Awards are certainly an indication of what the largest AMPAS voting bloc favors, only, have we any way of knowing how close those vote counts were? More than that body weighs in on the Oscar ballot.
I still think "Brokeback" is The One To Beat for picture, director and adapted screenplay.
Posted by: Dorothy | January 29, 2006 at 08:58 PM
I agree with Chris G. The only thing SAG is good at prognosticating is the acting awards (and even that isn't as spot on as the other guild awards). No one anticipated a win for Brokeback tonight (I was even somewhat surprised that Reuters predicted Brokeback to win best ensemble. It's no where near an ensemble like the Altman-esque Crash or GNGL). And, btw, everyone I know in SAG and who are in the Academy love Brokeback, even if they like some of the other performances better.
Posted by: PeterV | January 29, 2006 at 07:57 PM
Please, Chris...there's plenty of support for Brokeback--no one expected that it would do that well at the SAGs. Crash was always favoured for the ensemble prize.
But it's just so predictable for you anti-Brokeback types to use this loss to try to push the idea that support for Brokeback isnt't that strong.
HISTORY HAS PROVEN THAT THE DGA IS THE BEST PREDICTOR OF THE BEST PICTURE OSCAR WINNER, NOT THE SAG ENSEMBLE AWARD. Get that through your thick heads!
Posted by: Chris G. | January 29, 2006 at 07:13 PM
Everyone can now get off of Tom's back...the SAG Awards seem to indicate a lack of support for Brokeback...perhaps the Brokeback lock isn't as tight as everyone but Tom (and myself) has assumed...
Posted by: Chris | January 29, 2006 at 07:01 PM
Okay okay.... I agree with all the predictions with the exception of one... as far as Best Actress in a Drama goes, Mariska Hargitay hands down. Cmon people, she is so good in L&O:SVU.. and it doesnt take just anyone to show that kind of emotion. She definately deserves it.
Posted by: Brittany | January 29, 2006 at 03:29 PM
I think that the actors guild is going to be more generous toward Brokeback Mountain's Heath Ledger than the foreign press members were at the Golden Globes, mainly because I think they'd have less respect for imitation of non-fiction characters (Capote, Cash, Morrow) and understand the bigger challenge of creating "something out of nothing." Maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part, though, since I'm really rooting for BBM. I also think that the extremely high popularity of BBM evident on the internet may also be evident among the acting community. We'll see
Posted by: Robert | January 29, 2006 at 03:26 PM
Six Feet Under should beat Lost. It had some of the most impeccable performances in the history of the small screen, and its last season was its best. Don't forget!
Posted by: Andrew | January 29, 2006 at 02:41 PM
Still predictin'
ENSEMBLE: Crash
ACTOR: Philip Seymour Hoffman
ACTRESS: Reese Witherspoon
SUP ACTOR: George Clooney
SUP ACTRESS: Michelle Williams (Amy Adams for the WIN)
COMEDY ENSEMBLE (TV): Arrested Development (I wanna change this prediction SO badly)
DRAMA ENSEMBLE (TV): Lost
COMEDY ACTOR: William Shatner
COMEDY ACTRESS: Felicity Huffman
DRAMA ACTOR: Alan Alda
DRAMA ACTRESS: Geena Davis
TV MOVIE/MINISERIES ACTOR: Kenneth Branagh
TV MOVIE/MINISERIES ACTRESS: S. Epatha Merkerson
Posted by: Ced | January 29, 2006 at 01:43 PM
Hey guys...Give ol' Tom O'Neil a break:
He is simply prognosticating. Although I disagree with his SAG predictions he has moxie for making them in this usually unguessable event. I too think Brokeback will be a sweep (of course I was so out of it I did not know that the BB song was ineligible...and I still cannot find the related article on oscar beat)
Just last year I won a local radio contest for correctly guessing the Osacr winners (I won a flat screen tv and dvd player and surround sound). But I will never forget the 1997 awards when a friend beat me out in our annual contest...a friend who knows nothing about movies...by picking box office faves (to me it is still the infamous year of the Titanic tragedy...not the ship sinking itself but the year a crappy movie like Titanic actually caught the voters votes).
Handicapping these awards is hard...and the only thing I have to say to Tom is damn you for leaving E!...(Comcast does not carry the TV Guide channel and I miss you)
Posted by: Ray Broughton | January 29, 2006 at 01:12 PM
I will not be able to stomach it if Philip Seymour Hoffman takes the prize at SAG or the OSCARS over Joaquin's nuanced, brilliant, genuine performance in WALK THE LINE. I also do not understand how Tom can be predicting a win for Philip Seymour Hoffman at the SAG Awards when hardly anyone has seen the movie. WALK THE LINE has made over $100 million at the box office (indicating that probably a hell of a lot more SAG members across the country have seen the movie) and Phoenix has been enthusiastically priased for his work in the film. Phoenix ALSO has a major body of work behind him and is widely regarded as one of the best actors of our generation.
So the bottom line is that Phoenix isn't out every night of the week shaking hands, kissing babies, chumming up to journalists, presenting at every awards show that will have him and playing the "campaign" game. He's an actor. He is more like DeNiro or Penn who aren't comfortable with the whole "marketing" thing - he's a true-blue actor and his work should speak for itself. HE IS THE BEST ACTOR OF THE YEAR.
Posted by: Beth | January 29, 2006 at 01:11 PM
Sorry I forgot an important one,
Reasons why we should not reward PSH for mimicking Capote:
• It stalemates creativity and imagination
• Last year we had Ray, Huges, now Capote, Murrow, Mr | Mrs Cash. Don’t encourage trend
• Character actors stay that way for a reason (don’t mean to be sarcastic)
• How many more Jamie Foxx alike are we going to reward for the act of mimic
• It encourages actors to spend too much time watching old documentaries of their subject
• He just added another one to the long list of negative gay characters in Hollywood movies
Posted by: peopleaginstmimic | January 29, 2006 at 11:51 AM
Reasons why we should not reward PSH for mimicking Capote:
• It stalemates creativity and imagination
• Last year we had Ray, Huges, now Capote, Murrow, Mr | Mrs Cash. Don’t encourage trend
• Character actors stay that way for a reason (don’t mean to be sarcastic)
• He just added another one to the long list of negative gay characters in Hollywood movies
• How many more Jamie Foxx alike are we going to reward for the act of mimic
• It encourages actors to spend too much time watching old documentaries of their subject
Posted by: peopleaginstmimic | January 29, 2006 at 11:50 AM
LANDSLIDE VICTORY FOR THE 'BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN' TEAM!
I predict that in an unprecedented victory, "Brokeback Mountain" will sweep every award category--and deservedly so! So foar, the PGA, DGA, and Golden Globes got it right. It's now time for the SAG and Oscars to follow the "Brokeback" domination of cinema this past year.
Again, kudos to Ang Lee and company for the bravery and vision to PROCEED with a daring piece of cinematic history. Wow!--Takes my breath away...
BLAKE M.
Missouri
Posted by: Blake M. | January 29, 2006 at 11:47 AM
Reasons why we should not reward PSH for mimicking Capote:
• It stalemates creativity and imagination
• Last year we had Ray/Huges, this year Capote, Murrow, Mr | Mrs Cash. Don’t encourage trend
• Character actors stay that way for a reason (don’t mean to be sarcastic)
• How many more Jamie Foxx alike are we going to reward for the act of mimic
• It encourages actors to spend too much time watching old documentaries
Posted by: peopleaginstmimic | January 29, 2006 at 11:45 AM
I can't quit Brokeback Mountain. This movie should win hands down for both Best Ensambe for SAGs and Best Picture come Ocsar time. The collective acting by the entire ensambe was beyond brilliant. They all brought true raw emotions into this Historic Film. Perhaps the pundits aren't giving Brokeback Mountain the props they rightly deserve because it actually has a cast who are completely humble and low key.
I get why many think that the Best Ensamble award is going to go to Crash. Perhaps what the SAGs represents the most is a Popularity contest rather based on the true acting merits of its nominees. I hope that they prove me wrong on this tonight.
Also, it would be just for Brokeback Mountain ensamble to win because it took COURAGE for these actors/actresses to take on these roles when many in Hollywood outright ran away from these them. Get it Right!
Posted by: Catesa | January 29, 2006 at 11:28 AM
I'm usually terrible at guessing these things, but here goes. I've decided to list who I think should and who I think will win.
Motion Picture Cast
Should - Brokeback Mountain
Will - Crash
Actor
Should - Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
Will - Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Actress
Should - Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
Will - Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
Supporting Actor
Should - Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)
Will - George Clooney (Syriana)
Supporting Actress
Should - Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
Will - Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
Comedy Series Cast
Should - Desperate Housewives
Will - esperate Housewives
Drama Series Cast
Should - Grey's Anatomy
Will - Lost
Actor Comedy Series
Should - Jason Lee (My Name Is Earl)
Will - William Shatner (Boston Legal)
Actor Drama Series
Should - Patrick Dempsey (Grey's Anatomy)
Will - Patrick Dempsey (Grey's Anatomy)
Actor Miniseries/TV Movie
Should - Kenneth Branagh (Warm Springs)
Will - kenneth Branagh (Warm Springs)
Actress Comedy Series
Should - Felicity Huffman (Desperate Housewives)
Will - Felicity Huffman (esperate Housewives)
Actress Drama Series
Should - Sandra Oh (Grey's Anatomy)
Will - Geena Davis (Commander in Chief)
Actress Miniseries/TV Movie
Should - S. Epatha Merkerson (Lackawanna Blues)
Will - S. Epatha Merkerson (Lackawanna Blues)
Obviously, I think it will be a big night for Felicity Huffman. I giver her the edge here over Reese because, IMHO I don't see June Carter Cash on screen; I see Reese Witherspoon trying to imitate her. But with Felicity, I actually see a "woman" who used to be a man. Come Oscar time, I think the young hot babe factor will work towards Reese's favor in conjunction with the transgender factor working against Felicity, but the SAG's are a whole 'nother animal. So for the SAG's expect to see a lot of Felicity Huffman.
Posted by: Nicholas | January 29, 2006 at 11:16 AM