The five Oscar best picture nominees will be...
There's no denying the impressive and consistent strength shown by four films across the guild awards and BAFTA: "Brokeback Mountain," "Capote," "Crash" and "Good Night, and Good Luck." Therefore, we must consider all of them locks to reap bids for best picture at the Oscars. But — hmmm — what about that fifth slot, eh? One of three films will nab it: "The Constant Gardener," "Munich" or "Walk the Line."
To determine the most likely candidate, consider the rooting factor, which I've written about in the past. It has to do with the academy's unique preferential balloting system, which is different from the form of preferential voting commonly used and endorsed by accountants. When academy voters rank their top five choices to be nominated, really only No. 1 and No. 2 votes matter for the most part.
Although "Munich's" support is not widespread, I've a hunch that it'll get more number-one votes than "Gardener" or "Walk" by tomorrow's voting deadline. Out of the academy's 5,800 voters, all the lucky fifth film needs is about 800 rooters — and I think "Munich" has that solid, albeit small, core of adamant supporters.
Photo: The fifth nominee? "Munich" has an explosive ad campaign under way plus a faithful column of academy supporters. But enough No. 1 votes?
(Universal Pictures)
has the academy gone completely bonkers!!!!!....saw WALK THE LINE four times.....it got better each time.....joaquin and reese are amazing.........looks like if it wasn't a MESSAGE movie this year it wasn't getting nominated.....hey, hollywood..wake up.....and you wonder why more people aren't going to movies!!!!! DUH!!!!
Posted by: meg | February 01, 2006 at 12:10 PM
Walk the Line has to be nominated because it and Brokeback Mountain are going to be the only two potential (Walk the Line actual) top 25 films in contention. There always are at least two, I believe (last year we had Aviator and MDB finish in the top 25). Munich if anything looks weaker to me than The Constant gardener. But I think Capote holds both of them off.
Posted by: CJ | January 23, 2006 at 03:35 PM
I must say, having just seen Capote - it's perhaps the most unpleasant, disturbing and uninvolving movie I've seen all year. Hoffman's performance is an interesting collection of tics - look, I'm gay/fabulous, I wear nice clothes and I have a mincing irritating voice - but it has nothing of the power, emotion or arc of Heath in Brokeback. Not to mention - is there anyone out there who actually enjoyed Capote because they had an emotional commitment to it, or because they were brainwashed by the critical acclaim for Hoffman?
If you want to see a REAL performance of a could-be-easy character rather than a gimmick, go see Felicity Huffman - in a movie you'll actually enjoy. If you want to actually get involved in a movie, see Brokeback or Crash. If you want to have a miserable two+ hours watching uninteresting people do uninteresting things and ultimately end up with post-titles to create the final story arc - go pay $14 for Capote.
Posted by: Dave | January 22, 2006 at 10:02 PM
I have read where some pundits say the KING KONG best picture buzz is real and well. I hope it happens especially after I read the silly comments by Kathleen Kennedy on why "MUNICH" hasn't resonated with political pundits and viewers. She blames Conservatives for it. LOL. What she fails to mention is that while the film display considerable qualities in filmmaking the film story takes itself seriously but comes across as false which it is since many of the story and or events didn't unfold as presented. With this said, MUNICH is a better film than CRASH and or the equally false propaganda film "Goodnight and Goodluck". AND KING KONG DESERVES A BEST PICTURE NOD AS WELL IF JUST TO QUIET US CONSERVATIVES who all of sudden are causing all these so call great films from being nominated or the ones creating their problems at the boxoffice. LOL
Posted by: saltydog | January 22, 2006 at 09:44 PM
Crash seems to improve with each viewing.
And with some 130,000 screeners out, the Roger Ebert factor, and grand themes, Crash should be a lock for a nomination.
Can it win? Yes.
Best movie for 2005 will either be Crash or Brokeback.
Another possible movie nomination not mentioned at this point is King Kong. I think it has a shot at a movie nod and may garner as many as eight nominations.
Posted by: Crash to take on Brokeback | January 22, 2006 at 03:10 PM
Can anyone elucidate? I've seen Ledger's performance and think it's one of the most powerful and effective portrayals I've ever seen in a movie. I haven't seen Hoffman's Capote performance.
How is Hoffman's "better" than Ledger's. Like I said, haven't seen the latter, but can hardly imagine a better performance than Ledger's.
Thanks.
Posted by: Jake | January 22, 2006 at 10:35 AM
People should expect to be surprised on Jan. 31. "Brokeback" is the only lock. The other four nominees could come from any combination of roughly 10 candidates. For example, the other four slots could go to "Good Night, and Good Luck," "Capote," "Crash" and "Walk the Line" ... but couldn't it just as easily be "Munich," "A History of Violence," "The Constant Gardener" and "Match Point"? The only guarantee is that "Brokeback" will win Best Picture. But it might win surprisingly few trophies, like two: picture and cinematography, or four, with director and screenplay.
Posted by: John M. | January 22, 2006 at 08:25 AM
Sorry my last posting was wrong too, Walk the Line might have gotten other guild nominations, but just not the major one such as SAG, DG, WG. Sorry for the multiple postings, I won't do it again :)
Posted by: oscarpdx | January 21, 2006 at 12:27 PM
By the way, the only guild nomination Walk The Line received is for Producer. So the posting by Beth is not correct.
Posted by: oscarpdx | January 21, 2006 at 12:15 PM
There had been exception in the past when movies with GG & multiple guild nominations were not included, such as Almost Famous, Billy Eliott, Adaptation. Then there are movies that had few guild nominations but were nominated for Oscar best picture, e.g. The Pianist, In the Bedroom. Taking into consideration that Oscar had been including a GG musical/comedy winner and an European film for the past few years in this category, so below is my prediction for best picture nominees:
* Brokeback Mountain (will win)
* Good Night & Good Luck
* Walk the Line (the musical film)
* Capote
* The Constant Gardener (the European film)
Sideway lost to a very close competitor Million$baby with a serious message, it won't happen this year cause nothing come close to BBM. Crash is not in my list because I think a good movie should be able to get it's point across without having to repeat it ten thousand times.
Posted by: oscarpdx | January 21, 2006 at 12:09 PM
I'm not sure it's even a choice of the "fifth" slot for WALK THE LINE. I have a strong feeling it's right up there with BROKEBACK fighting for the 1st position. People LOVE the movie. DGA, WGA nominations aside, this movie has performed well wtih all other guilds including editors, production design, costume, the sound group of the academy, SAG and the PRODUCERS GUILD - and the bottom line is that it no doubt has been seen by more people than any other movie. It's the kind of DVD Academy members would WANT to pop in if they hadn't seen it in the theater already. I think as ballots close, WALK THE LINE is going to be a given.
Posted by: beth | January 21, 2006 at 10:37 AM
i have more than enough fingers to count the number of times when the best picture (in my humble opinion) actually won for best picture at the O's. i look at cannes when i want a run down of good movies. also sundance. the O's are like figure-skating, only without the finger pointing and car bombs. i've watched them since i was a kid...that was back when tv was a novelty, well, sort of. my support this year goes to the exquisite BBM, but i loved CRASH, MUNICH, SYRIANA, GN&GL, A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE, and welcome back woody, so happy to see A CONSTANT GARDENER too. and KING KONG. so many great films this year. i enjoyed GEISHA, WALK THE LINE, which was pretty entertaining. i agree with Ang Lee. films are changing the way we are thinking. for the better. as for me, i cant wait to see SICKO. i finally found some more info about it's release date as sept 6 2006. he had to use hidden microphones since the pharmacartels told their people to keep their mouths shut. his critics keep trying to debunk him but as far as i can see they dont have a shred of evidence that what he says isnt true. ok so he's left. so am i. so are a lot of the films mentioned. this happens to be refreshing for me here in canada, where we have a right-wing clown in the lead who have many of us afraid for our country. hollywood takes a lot of bashing (more than even you, tom), but these films are really great to see. and let's not forget KING KONG and THE LION THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE. cant think of a single reason to keep the child in us alive and well.
Posted by: teri | January 20, 2006 at 10:54 PM
Duuh!!! A History of Violence, not Munich!!!
Posted by: Slayton | January 20, 2006 at 09:15 PM
I think Walk the Lines appeal are the performances and the fact that people--myself included--loved Johnny Cash. I'm happy the film has done well and that fifth nomination is going to be interesting. Reese Witherspoon will win Best Actress but if I were her I would consider the Weinstein brothers my worst enemy and keep my eye on the rear view mirror. They're snakes.
Just seeing the previews for "Transamerica" make me more inclined to wait for DVD. But Reese has to be seen on the big screen. She was great in Walk the Line.
Posted by: Ricky0101 | January 20, 2006 at 06:55 PM
Considering there are approx. 900 BAFTA members which are Academy members as well.....and if most of them are rooting for "The Constant Gardener" by placing it 1 or 2.....I think the chances of "The Constant Gardener" making it into the fifth spot are starting to look promising.
Posted by: nancy | January 20, 2006 at 04:35 PM
Walk the Line is by far the most "popular" film of the bunch.
I imagine it has far more #1 votes then Capote, Good Night, Munich and maybe even Brokeback.
There is NO controversy surrounding Walk the Line....people loved it, the performance and the music. Coming up on 100 million soon, Walk the Line is the ONE hit movie of the 6 or 7 contenders.
Posted by: Mongoose | January 20, 2006 at 04:10 PM
Yeah. The balloting sistem is exacly what is going to bury Good Night & Good Luck because is the number one of nobody, everybody think is going to be nominated but nobody say is going to win or is the best picture. Take the Top-ten scoreboad of Movie city News for example (Steve Poland used the same in a recent post), GN & GL is in 4th place but with the preference balloting sistem end at 7or 8.
In the case of Walk The Line, i don't thing is fighting for a fith slot, this picture must be in second after Brokeback Mountain.
Posted by: Freddy | January 20, 2006 at 02:58 PM
I'm not convinced Crash is a lock on a nomination.
Posted by: Todd | January 20, 2006 at 12:35 PM
Yes, Capote seems to making a late charge into the Best Pic race, I believe only in support of Philip Seymour Hoffman (there has abeen a tradition that the Best Actor winner come from a movie nommed for Best Picture - if Capote isn't nommed, PSH's chances are diminished slightly but still think he would pull off the win in March). I would say however don't quite discount A History of Violence as the fifth Best Picture nominee as it seems to have strong support in either that number 1 or 2 or 3 slot (it's a movie you either love or hate).
Posted by: GChin | January 20, 2006 at 10:17 AM
I really wasn't buying Capote even after the PGA/DGA/WGA/SAG thing. But then it kept getting even more love, with the NSFC win, the best actor globe, the scripter, and the BAFTA nod. I have to agree that it is looking solid.
I really think the last spot will go to Walk the Line. It won 3 globes and is the only populist nominee in the bunch. And the DGA, WGA and SAG snubs don't mean much since
a) no one ever really expected it to be nommed for director and screenplay oscars anyway, and
b) it's not really an ensemble piece, so the ensemble snub is not surprising
It will coast in on the lead perfs and the box office. No race is ever, EVER without some film making more than $50something million. And no one expecting WtL's box office to be this good.
Posted by: Adam Keller | January 20, 2006 at 07:51 AM