The Envelope Logo

Gold Derby

Tom O'Neil has the inside track on Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and all the award shows.

« Previous Post | Gold Derby Home | Next Post »

'Kong' might grab the most Oscar noms

January 2, 2006 |  1:53 am

Why, oh, why do all of our trustiest crystal balls reveal different views of the Oscars' best picture race?

King Kong

Usually, the winner of the top Academy Award is one of the two film champs at the Globes: best drama picture (this year "Brokeback Mountain," of course) or comedy/musical picture ("Walk the Line," "Pride & Prejudice" or "The Squid and the Whale"). In the 62 years of the Globes' existence, one of its best picture picks has bagged the top Oscar 45 times. Of the four current films, the only one that has the might and cool factor to win the best picture Oscar is "Brokeback Mountain." So that means "Brokeback" is a cinch to go all the way, right?

Wait! I recently talked myself into predicting that George Clooney will win DGA. For the past 25 years, the movie saluted by the directors' guild won the best picture Oscar 19 times. So that means "Good Night, and Good Luck" will triumph, correct?

Not if you refer to another Oscar indicator that's usually dependable: the fact that the winner is often the movie that gets the most nominations. That's been true 17 out of 20 years.

So . . . what movie will that be this year? Maybe "Brokeback," but it's not a lock. "Pete Hammond.

"'Kong' is a definite contender in at least nine categories, which would be nine more noms than the 1933 original ever got," he adds. "It's possible, but a longer shot in the picture category which, if it is dissed there, could trigger this new academy record."

But "Kong" could also score noms for best picture and director, thus becoming one of those blockbusters that gets swept into the top race on a wave of support in the tech and crafts branches.

If it fails to reach such lofty categories, however, it might still be challenged by "Brokeback," which looks like a strong contender in these nine categories: best picture, director, actor, supporting actor, supporting actress, adapted screenplay, musical score, cinematography and editing. It also has long shot potential for costumes. One nomination it can't get is for best song. "A Love That Will Never Grow Old" was decreed ineligible because not enough of it can be heard when it plays on a car radio in the background of a scene.

My guess is that these are the nine categories that Hammond meant as likely competitions for "Kong": cinematography, art direction, costumes, score, editing, sound mixing, sound editing, visual effects and makeup. "Kong" could also be recognized in the races for picture, director, actress and adapted screenplay.

Meantime, "Good Night, and Good Luck" can probably count on at least five bids: picture, director, screenplay, cinematography, editing. It's also a contender for actor, supporting actor, costumes and art direction. It's not eligible in the visual effects category.

Hammond suspects "Walk the Line" can get "between 7 and 10 maybe": picture, actor, actress, adapted screenplay, costumes, art direction, editing, sound. The big maybes: direction, cinematography.

Here are opinions of some of our savvy forums posters: "Cederick" gives seven solid noms to "Good Night," 9 to "Brokeback." "Moviefan9" insists "'King Kong' is easily in the lead." Join our debate in our forums.

Photo: "Kong's" mighty special effects guarantee lots of crafts bids.
(Universal Pictures)

The comments to this entry are closed.

Comments

I think "Brokeback" will ride a big wave of support in all the nominations. Do not rule out two Best Supporting Actresses: Williams AND Hathaway. And don't rule out Randy Quaid joining Jake in The Best Supporting Actor category either. It happens often, especially when a movie has this much critical support and so little competition.

"The Maker Makes" is excellent. I wish they'd nominate it. Don't know if it's really original, though.

Oh for Christ sakes. I have seen King KONG twice and found the second time to be uniquely better than the first. I will probably see it a third time. I loved this film. And I am an old man. There is just so much to see in this marvelous picture. Everyone has their likes and dislikes so If people want to carp it then so be it, but let cut out all this nonsense about length hinders it and it doesn't deserve it because it doesn't have substance and whatever. The majority of the critics felt it had substance and so have the majority of the populace that has seen it. If any picture deserves a nomination it is this masterpiece. One Hollywood Pundit that fell in love with this film stated its a very difficult film to produce and direct and people act into a blue screen the majority of the time and to have it come out so well, so great. well its deserving. I heard many say it took 40 minutes for KONG to appear and it should have being shorter in time. Well it took 40 minutes in the original as well for KONG to appear. So why the carping. As for hype and bloated, well, all one has to do is look at the truly overrated "MUNiCH" and "Brokeback Mountain", or even the typical gangster type movie "History of Violence" amongst others. In my opinion none deserve Best Picture NODs.

Aren't there other songs from "Brokeback Mountain" that are eligible for consideration? Like "No One's Gonna Love You Like Me," "I Don't Want To Say Goodbye," "An Angel Went Up In Flames" (even though it sounds like a knock off of "The Devil Went Down To Georgia") and "The Maker Makes."

I don't think Kong will get a Picture or Director nom, mostly because it's fast becoming one of the most overrated films of the year. Jackson made a good film -- but it's far too long to be a great one. Even critics who have given it high marks have cited it's length as a major flaw. That, coupled with the fact that it's box office has come in below expectations and the fact that Jackson got lots of love from the Academy just 2 years ago makes me think that they're less inclined to shower him with nominations this time around.

I also think that Kong is not a given to win the tech categories. Revenge of the Sith was well received and has locked up the title of Top-grossing film of 2005 (Kong won't overtake it). This is also their last opportunity to honor Lucas and company, not just for the prequels, but for completing the entire Star Wars Saga. Plus, the effects in Sith were just better. (Kong had some sloppy moments, most notably the CGI Naomi Watts in the hands of the ape).

On another note, I hope that your'e right about a supporting actor nod for Jake Gyllenhaal. Having finally seen Brokeback, I think it will be a shame if they fail to recognize that if you don't buy into Jake's performance as Jack, you can't truly be moved or affected by Heath's tortured longing as Ennis. Each performance makes the other better, and I hope that the Academy will honor that.

I just don't get this monkey love. I just saw King Kong tonight and it is a good movie... but that is it. If it gets a Best Picture nomination good for Mr. Jackson. If it doesn't, good for somebody else.

I can't see King Kong getting past technical awards. In fact I don't think its Oscar material beyond technical awards. I personally found it overlong, overdone, over it. I made no emotional connection to this film at all.

I agree with 9 nominations for Brokeback Mountain, that is truly the film of the year and it will win Best Picture, Director, screenplay, possibly Best Actor, Supporting Actor, cinematography and musical score (the music was HAUNTING).

Going out on a limb here....Brokeback Mountain, Cinderella Man, Good Night and Good Luck, Munich, and Walk The Line. The 5 Best Picture nominees.

Just read that the song "A Love That Will Never Grow Old" from "Brokeback Mountain" has been made ineligible for the "Best Song" catagory at the upcoming Academy Awards. The only decent song from a movie this year and the only one that people will probably remember. What a shame. What a crying shame. It just makes me sick. Just because it didn't play long enough in the background of the scene it was in. What difference does that make?
Especially when it has been nominated for every other award show on the planet. I can only hope one of the other songs form the film such as the beautiful "The Maker Makes" performed by Rufus Wainwright will get nominated. In any case the Oscar people are doing a big dishonor to a truly great song.

Oh God I hope not. I hope the nominations don't go beyond the technical. Movies like this big bloated behemoath of a movie is not one that should celebrated....especially if the nominations are taken away more relevent films.

KONG will be a big boy at the OSCAR show this year. With at least 11 nominations it will not be denied. A great film and made even greater because it is a light year better than the original film which has being a classic for years. We all know it will get a Nod for Picture, Director plus many others but look for Best Actress and possibly Screen play to go its way as well. As for BrokeBack Mountain I keep thinking "hey, the academy thumbs down KINSEY. It could do the same for Brokeback. And I wouldn't be so sure that "Walk the Line" is going to get in as Best Picture. The same for "Munich". This may be the films that get left out. I keep reading where this film have soft support. One thing for sure it will be interesting....

Overkill, folks! Kong is not going to be a big boy at this year's Oscars. It'll get its share of tech noms but it has competetion like Start Wars. My guess is five or six noms at the most and none if the major categories. Jackson got his big night ttwo years ago. Watts is terrific but she is not going to make the final five.

NAOMI WATTS FOR BEST ACTRESS!!

I don't think it's very possible for Kong to get the most noms. "at leasdt 9" is quite an overstatement. I think it's only really locked in art direction, visual effects, sound, and sound effects, and makeup... cinematography, costumes, editing, and score won't be such easy gets. I don't think it'll get more than 8.

And of course, box office has been less than spectacular, so it no longer even has that on its side.


Connect

Advertisement

In Case You Missed It...

Stay Connected:


About the Blogger


Pop & Hiss



Categories


Archives
 



In Case You Missed It...