Complete Oscars predix: 'Brokeback' will win five
No more lollygagging. 'Tis time to stick out our Oscar necks, my fellow award seers. Here are the categories I believe will be claimed by the triumphant pix. It's a crying kudos shame that two of the finest films of 2005 didn't get nommed for best picture, but at least "King Kong" and "Memoirs of a Geisha" will be multiple champs in other categories while two movies that did make the cut, "Good Night, and Good Luck" and "Munich," will probably be shut out.
"BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN"
Picture
Director
Adapted Screenplay
Musical Score
Cinematography
"CRASH"
Original Screenplay
Film Editing
"KING KONG"
Sound Editing
Sound Mixing
Visual Effects
"MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA"
Art Direction
Costume Design
"CAPOTE"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Best Actor
"TRANSAMERICA"
Felicity Huffman, Best Actress
"SYRIANA"
George Clooney, Supporting Actor
"THE CONSTANT GARDENER"
Rachel Weisz, Supporting Actress
"TSOTSI"
Foreign Language Film
"WALLACE & GROMIT IN THE CURSE OF THE WERE-RABBIT"
Animated Feature
"HUSTLE & FLOW"
Song ("It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp")
"CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE"
Makeup
"MARCH OF THE PENGUINS"
Documentary Feature
"GOD SLEEPS IN RWANDA"
Documentary Short
"THE MOON AND THE SON"
Animated Short
"SIX SHOOTER"
Short Film, Live Action
Other predix worth checking out come from Robert Licuria, one of The Envelope's message-board moderators, who has his own personal site detailing his category-per-category views. Rob's a savvy kudos crystal-baller, so I recommend you check out Awards Heaven even though he dares to disagree with me in some key races. He'll be sorry!
Photo: Call me crazy, but I believe the big upset on Oscar night will come from Felicity Huffman walking away with the lead actress' purse. How ironic that she'll beat the curse against women over age 40 by portraying a man — in a dress.
(Weinstein Co.)
I am a gay man and if Crash won best picture, I would not be upset because I think it's a brillant wonderful film. Homophobia in Hollywood would piss me off. If they honored a crap fantasy movie like The Lord Of The Rings, Brokeback will win.The tend the last few years seem to be changing. They seem to be more open minded than in past years with always honoring epic films. The Lord Of The Rings is not mu kind of movie, but to many others it is. I think that wil be the seneraio with Brokeback. If they honored Midnight Cowbuy in 1969 they will honor Brokeback.
Tom what happened to the Vegas odds? I can't find them this year. I also wish u would go back to E. I HATE the TV guide channel. They should preempt all the channel lineup stuff during big award pre shows.
Posted by: Mike | March 01, 2006 at 03:56 AM
Jake has a better chance of winning than Michelle.
Posted by: Patty | February 27, 2006 at 05:09 AM
Reese Witherspoon is a LOCK. I saw that film and as I left I said to myself, "she will win an Oscar for that". She was perfect. Even the NY Film Critics are awarding her and those people are elitist east coast snobs.
REESE is the Oscar gal this year. No question.
Posted by: Ricky0101 | February 26, 2006 at 04:48 PM
If Brokeback won cinematography, it could won in all 8 categories. I still hope Ledger victory as Jake too, and Michelle's buzz grows every day.
Posted by: Alessandro | February 26, 2006 at 04:35 PM
An upset for Heath Ledger would ice the cake for me. BBM all the way!
Posted by: TorontoTom | February 26, 2006 at 05:05 AM
Are you sure everyone is predicting Crash? Outside of Ebert (even Roeper is resigned to the fact that Brokeback will win) I can't think of a single Oscar prognosticator who is giving it to Crash. It's their second choice, for sure, but not a single leading critic or Oscar watcher is giving it to Crash. Even those that are somewhat anti-Brokeback (like Poland at moviecitynews.com) are giving it to Brokeback.
Posted by: PeterV | February 26, 2006 at 12:00 AM
I am still so upset that "KING KONG" didn't make the top five best picture nominees that I am hoping that it wins all four nominations it is up for. Much like when the film "the Alamo" was nominated over "Spartacus" for best picture and Spartacus won FOUR OSCARS while "the Alamo" won only ONE.
Posted by: saltydog | February 25, 2006 at 11:51 AM
I'm a little frightened ... I actually agree with Tom for almost all of these predictions.
Posted by: kcholt68 | February 25, 2006 at 11:23 AM
This is why the Oscar game is in full motion! So much fun to second guess and at the same time, all we can hope for is a fun time at the Ceremony,'cause it's long. I just hope there isn't too much Brokeback Mountain gay jokes...enough already. It's a quality film on it's own merits and should remain so and I agree with Tom on most of his insights. His been fairly accurate most of the times in the last few Oscar races. You Go Tom! :0 I really enjoy your diatribes and insights that is Oscar. Just enjoy everyone...and let's hope for a surprise or two, so we can all blog later post show. Now..go BBM team!
Posted by: James J. | February 24, 2006 at 10:58 PM
i dont know, tom. i can think of one or two reasons that could stop ang lee from winning...but i'm rooting for him. my biggest concern is having to watch heath ledger lose. i also think george is going to get shut out. a shut-out in acting for BBM is too much to stomach.
Posted by: teri | February 24, 2006 at 10:27 PM
Tom, if you want to change your Best Actress prediction to Reese, go right ahead. We will let you!! If Reese doesn't win this, the Oscars are a joke!
Posted by: Mike | February 24, 2006 at 07:10 PM
i've been blase about the oscars for years now, with the odd exception, such as letting that superb FANTASY lotr win. but when they pass over the best perfromance by an actor for PSH, whom i'm a big fan of regardless, it's just another nail in the academy's credibility. most people probably wouldnt agree with me but i thought THE MAN put in the best performance last year. jamie foxx was good, but he had a better propaganda machine in his corner, not a better performance.
Posted by: teri | February 24, 2006 at 04:00 PM
I suppose that I don't really understand how Oscar predictions are made. When Mr. O'Neil says that the race will be a "photo finish", how does he know this? Other than by reading what he and the other Oscar bloggers and reporters are writing (which seems be one endless loop feeding on itself--one reporter says that Crash is surging, and then all of the other reporters pick it up and it gets amplied as it bounces around), how does he or anyone else really know that Crash is in now in second place in the Oscar race? There are 5,798 voting members of AMPAS, and antecdotal evidence of how a few of the AMPAS members will cast their ballots means nothing. Most of Mr. O'Neils predictions (and those of other Oscar prognosticators )seem to be based almost entirely on the precursors (i.e., BBM will win best pic and director because it has won everything else), not on some sort of special knowledge or inside informaiton.
Posted by: steve4922 | February 24, 2006 at 03:10 PM
I"t is Michelle Williams who gives the powderkeg performance -- full of emotion."
I have never seen a performance so OVERRATED in my life. Michelle Williams does not deserve the Oscar. Rachel Weisz does and she deserves to the win the Academy Award.
Posted by: sandy | February 24, 2006 at 02:47 PM
I hope you're right on Score and Cinematography - Gustavo Santaolalla and Rodrigo Prieto contributed so much to the success of this film it would be a shame to not recognize their work.
Posted by: lebiram | February 24, 2006 at 01:59 PM
I think John Williams (Memoirs of a Geisha) and Dolly Parton ("Travellin' Thru'") are more likely to win for original score and original song.
By the way, I don't think there's a bias against rap/hip hop songs with the Academy, it's just that over 90% of rap/hip hop songs sample at least part of their musical structure which makes them ineligible for a nomination. It's good that people are figuring that out and working around it.
Posted by: John and Dolly | February 24, 2006 at 01:57 PM
It's a sad state of affairs when the oscars don't reward the best acting of the year but reward the next best actor because he/she is due or is more popular.
It is Heath Ledger who gives the most heartwrenching performance of the year -- Hoffman does not nearly run the gamut of emotions in Capote.
It is Matt Dillon who deserves the award for Best supporting actor for the most memorable performance (other than maybe Jake gyllenhaal) in Crash. Do you remember any of the other supporting actor performances. If the Oscars loved Crash, I don't see why Matt Dillon would not benefit.
It is Michelle Williams who gives the powderkeg performance -- full of emotion.
It is really Keira Knightly who gives the most outstanding performance of the year. I won't be disappointed if Reese wins because she has given us great performances in the past -- just not so oscar worthy in walk the line. Felicity was okay, but not overwhelmingly great. Keira is comedic and dramatic in an all out great performance in Pride and Prejudice. This is the one category that I think Reese will win and is the lock for the night.
Posted by: john | February 24, 2006 at 01:54 PM
read your article in IN mag. &
agree w/it.i'am anxious & obsessed about Brokeback winning best picture.do the marketers of Brokeback realize
the aggressive marketing of Crash,can they do anything(dvd
ads) to counter it,is it too
late?can you give me contact info for the marketers for Brokeback?thanks for relieving
my anxiety about Ang Lee,i have followed his career since
Wedding Banquet,& was worried
about prejuice affecting his chances. thanks,
geoff tad
3238763107
Posted by: geoff tad | February 24, 2006 at 01:03 PM
My predictions disagree with yours, Tom, in seven categories.
That's much more than usual.
Leading Actress --- Reese (Tom: Felicity)
Supporting Actor --- Paul (Tom: George)
Song --- "Travelin' Thru" (Tom: "It's Hard Out Here For a Pimp")
Original Score --- Memoirs of a Geisha (Tom: BBM)
Foreign Film --- Paradise Now (Tom: Tsotsi) *** I probably will change my prediction to Tsotsi ***
Sound Mixing --- WTL (Tom: Kong)
Animated Short --- 9 (Tom: The Moon and the Son)
Posted by: Ced | February 24, 2006 at 12:47 PM
I've never said I believe that "Crash" WILL win, only that I strongly suspect it MIGHT based upon the huge support I've noted for it for months now. 'Tis a dang close race and many times I've been tempted to switch my prediction to "Crash." Over all, while chatting with academy members, I've counted the same about the same number of real votes for each -- with "Good Night" very, VERY close behind. Soon I will post a blog item explaining in more detail why I'm sticking with "Brokeback" in the end. Sorry to confuse you and others. This best pic race will be a photo finish, though nothing will stop Ang Lee from winning best director.
Posted by: Tom O'Neil | February 24, 2006 at 11:34 AM
Well The only Problem is That Your Are Predicting FH to Win. She Not Going to Win.
Posted by: Michael Bluth | February 24, 2006 at 11:01 AM
After reading all the blogs quoting Academy members who will NOT vote for Brokeback Mountain, I don't see why you are still picking it to win Best Picture. I scan the web daily reading about the race between Brokeback Mountain and Crash and nearly all, including Ebert and Roeper, favor Crash to actually win the Best Pic award. What do you know that I don't or that I haven't read?
Posted by: Jimmy | February 24, 2006 at 10:42 AM