Don't believe those clueless "experts" who harrumph and dismiss this Academy Awards race as the most obvious and predictable ever. If the current kudos calendar had been in place four years ago, those same chowderheads who now say — with convincing haughtiness — that Reese Witherspoon can't lose best actress for "Walk the Line" probably would've insisted that Sissy Spacek couldn't lose for "In the Bedroom" for the same reason: both actresses swept the early kudos in January, after all, didn't they? Therefore, the experts proclaim — sounding utterly reasonable — that the Oscar is, inevitably, next.

Thirty-two years ago they would've claimed that divine intervention couldn't possibly stop "The Exorcist" from winning best picture. After all, it had won the Golden Globe and was considered to be the top film of the year both culturally and financially. Indeed, terrified America seemed to be possessed by it. Three of its Oscar rivals hadn't even been nominated for best drama picture at the Globes. The fifth nominee, "A Touch of Class," was considered featherweight fare without a chance of exorcising Hollywood's blockbuster from the category.

Oscar "experts" tend to be only as good as their crystal balls and this year they don't have the same ones that saved them from making fools of themselves earlier. Four years ago a Screen Actors Guild Award revealed a late-breaking surge in the lead actress race by Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball"), who'd previously lost the Globe and all critics' awards. Thirty-two years ago "The Sting" won its first big Hollywood prize very late in the race too, when it was hailed by the Directors Guild of America in the Oscars' home stretch. Just like "Crash," "The Sting" had not been nominated for best pic at the Globes.

If those guild awards hadn't tattled on Berry and "The Sting," the vast majority of self-proclaimed experts never would've seen those wins coming.

This year the Oscars are unique because we don't have those guild awards positioned at the tail end of the race to give us a gauge of late-breaking industry views. The actors' and directors' guild kudos were bestowed back in January, pushed back on the calendar so they could stay out in front of the Oscars, which moved its ceremony date from late March/early April two years ago. The previous two Oscars were held in late February, but now they're occurring in early March so they don't have to compete against the Winter Olympics. In between the January awards and the March Oscars this year is a long period of eerie quiet when many key races could shift without us knowing.

What the producers', actors' and directors' guilds revealed in January was what we already knew: that "Brokeback," Lee, Hoffman and Witherspoon were ahead. OK, fine, but what about now, eh?

Personally, I decided to be conservative and bet on only one major upset. Here's how I decided which one.

Photo: No one could've foreseen "Midnight Cowboy's" dark-horse dash toward the Oscar finish line if it hadn't won the Directors Guild of America Award in the last few weeks of the 1969 derby. Previously, it had not been hailed as best picture by Golden Globe voters or film critics.
(United Artists)

Now let's consider what's happened at the recent guild awards that didn't change their usual schedule because of the Olympics: the "crafts."

No big surprise that "Memoirs of a Geisha" won a prize from the Costume Designers Guild over the weekend. It was the front-runner, so that victory means previous Academy Award winner Colleen Atwood ("Chicago") probably has another Oscar sewn up.

"Geisha" also nabbed a trophy from the American Society of Cinematographers, but don't expect that guild honor to match up with Oscar. The ASC victor was decided by peers. The Oscar is determined by the whole motion picture academy. Thus hairdressers and makeup artists vote in this race and they usually equate great cinematography with big, wide, epic scope. Best picture winners that are full of grand visual sweep almost always take the cinematography prize too — like "Titanic," "The English Patient" and "Braveheart." There are exceptions like "Gradiator" being beat by "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon," but they are rare. Therefore, bet on "Brokeback Mountain" triumphing this year for its focus on sprawling mountain landscapes.

At the guild kudos for film editors, the ACE Eddie Awards went to "Crash" (drama) and "Walk the Line" (musical/comedy). Considering "Crash" rookie Hughes Winborne beat respected "Munich" veteran Michael Kahn among industry peers, that probably means "Crash" will prevail when all three collide at the Oscars where "Brokeback" isn't nommed and those hairdressers and makeup artists are voting in the race too. Kahn won his last two Oscar bouts ("Saving Private Ryan," "Schindler's List"), but now his luck will probably run out.

The victory of "King Kong" at the Visual Effects Society means that the monster monkey will surely put its big furry fist around an Oscar next.

When supporting actor Oscar nominee Matt Dillon joined us for a chat session on Sunday morning, Feb. 26, he revealed what he believes triggers the passionate response many moviegoers feel for best picture nominee, "Crash."

"Once you get beyond the surface and go deeper into the film, the themes are universal," he told our forums posters. "And a wide range of people are able to identify with the characters on the screen. And for me, what's been interesting is that some people have responded as much to the loving son as to the racist cop."

He also opened up about some award snubs. "In terms of the Oscars, some of my favorite films of the year haven't been nominated" for best picture, he griped, citing "The New World," "The Constant Gardener" and "King Kong."

Matt Dillon: Hello, I'm here.
Tom O'Neil: Hi Matt -- Thanks for joining us to dish "Crash"!
monkaholic: hey Matt!!
Mr. Beethoven: Greetings Matt.
Tome6: congrats Matt Great job
Atypical: Congratulations on your first Oscar nomination Matt!
Tom O'Neil: Why did you agree to take on such a villainous role as a racist cop?
Matt Dillon: I liked the polarity of the character. Here we had this cop who's clearly a racist with a chip on his shoulder, who then lovingly takes care of his dying father. You don't typically see these layers explored and that type of character.

Photo: "I couldn't look at my character just as a racist cop," Dillon says. "I had to find the humanity in the character, who he really was."
(Lionsgate)

"I never dreamed of winning an Emmy!" Don Knotts told me a few years ago when I contacted him about specials I was producing for TV Land. "It never occurred to me!"

When he died this past weekend at age 81, Knotts left behind a staggering legacy in showbiz awards lore. He not only tied the record for winning the most Emmys for portraying one character — a distinction matched by Ed Asner, Candice Bergen and Art Carney — he accomplished something else that no one's ever equaled: Knotts went undefeated at the Emmys, nabbing five for five nominations.

"I did that?" gasped the eternally nervous, aw-shucks Everyman when I mentioned it. "I had no idea!"

Carney had something peculiarly in common with Knotts. Both were awarded generously for roles in programs whose lead stars went Emmyless: Jackie Gleason and Andy Griffith.

In Carney's case, it was a sore subject around the boss. Marilyn Gleason, widow of TV's self-anointed "Great One," once told me, "You could never mention the Emmys to Jackie. He'd get furious!" Whenever Gleason dropped by Carney's house for a visit, Carney had to hide all of his TV statuettes in a closet.

But Griffith was no such tyrant. "Andy was so much fun to work with!" Knotts said. "When the star is fun, that's half the battle. That's why it was such a great show to be on."

Knotts left their hit TV series after several years and several Emmys, eager to cash in on his sudden superstar status by doing films like "The Incredible Mr. Limpet" and "The Reluctant Astronaut." Knotts ended up pulling off what few TV stars ever do — he made a successful crossover to film — which was the exact opposite career path his TV boss Griffith had taken.

I remember clearly what a huge hit "Astronaut" was when it came out in 1967. My mom and dad made a special occasion out of it: they stuffed my brother, sister and me into our PJs, loaded up the Oldsmobile with Kool-Aid, chips and kids, and headed to the drive-in theater in Mentor, Ohio. That only happened a few times every summer. It was obvious to me that Don Knotts was a big shot and that his movie had to be, well, "groovy."

But even though Knotts ditched Mayberry for the silver screen, he loved Griffith and gang so much that he was never gone for long. His friendship with Griffith dated back to the 1950s when they costarred on Broadway in "No Time for Sergeants." Initially, Knotts wasn't supposed to be part of "The Andy Griffith Show," but Griffith had the role of bungling Barney Fife created for him at the last minute when Knotts dropped by the set of the new TV series and asked Griffith if there was anything he could do.

Those last few Emmys Knotts won were really bogus — they were special guest appearances nominated against regular roles. Whenever that happened at Emmys past, the guests usually won, then all heck broke loose with regular stars protesting to the TV academy. As a result the academy would drop the face-off, but only long enough for people to forget what a hubbub it caused, then, foolishly, pair them off again.

One of Knotts' last two Emmys was for the 1965-66 episode "The Return of Barney Fife," which depicts him heading home for his high school reunion where he's shocked to discover that his ole sweetheart Thelma Lou is married. Another high school honey, Teena, is the focus of his second Emmy episode, "Barney Comes to Mayberry," when she arrives in town as a hotshot movie star.

Gee, looking back with hindsight now, that Barney Fife was sure a swinger, eh?

Curiously, Knotts didn't consider those roles his best work. When I asked him to cite his favorite episodes, he named two:

"Andy on Trial" — "It was the best one for me. It's about this guy sends a girl into town to get some dirt on Andy and I started bragging about myself and putting Andy down to the girl, not knowing who she was. She reports back to the guy and they put Andy on trial because I said things that made it look like he wasn't a good sheriff. When I took the stand I said all these nice things about what a good man he was. I thought it was an excellent story. It was very well written episode that gave both Andy and I a chance to do some dramatic stuff. But mostly that was for me, though, because I had a chance to emote a little bit about how I felt about Andy. And it showed more depth to Barney Fife."

"Barney and the Choir" — "That was my funniest performance. I stood out as being the worst singer in the choir and Andy insists I keep my voice lower and lower and lower till you can't hear me. We had a guy on microphone who was a really good singer. When I moved my lips, the other guy sang and everybody thought it was me … my voice … and it was very funny. It was a very difficult one to shoot because any time you're using music that way you have to do playbacks and keep recording and recording and recording and shooting, shooting, shooting, and on the third day of shooting we were there from almost 7 in the morning till almost midnight. It was fun anyway because it was a beautifully written show."

Photo: Gotcha, Don! The five-time Emmy champ humbly pretended not to care too much about his award wins, but when I asked him about his memories of those ceremony nights, he could easily recall his acceptance speeches from 40 years ago.
(CBS)

Something weird is going on among Oscar voters — and it's also going unspoken. "Crash" and "Good Night, and Good Luck" have their passionate supporters who gush with their honest love of those best picture nominees, but most non-"Brokeback" votes I hear from Oscar voters are really anti-"Brokeback."

Scads of academy members fume to me when they tattle on how they're inking their ballots, "I'm not voting for 'Brokeback'!" Then they calm down a bit and add, "I'm voting for (fill in the blank)" and give a positive reason to justify their decision for picking an alternative. In most cases I hear contrary votes for "Crash," but there's also surprising strength for "Good Night, and Good Luck." So far I've heard equal numbers of votes for "Brokeback" as "Crash," with "Good Night" not far behind. The best picture race is really thisclose.

It's the fury that voters express when mentioning "Brokeback" that's so odd and suspicious. In some cases I believe they're people who think the film is overrated. Or they're just weary of gay cowboy jokes. But in the majority of cases I suspect it's something else and something bad that they feel they can't utter out loud, so they're holding it in. You can see it on their faces.

Could it be secret homophobia? Perhaps. The academy is comprised mostly of straight white guys with white hair who know it's intolerable to bash gays in lavender-friendly, liberal Hollywood. But I really don't think it's that in any large way. Instead, I think it's the same frustration non-Jews feel when there's a glut of Holocaust films leading the Oscar pack in Jewish-friendly Hollywood. They want to exclaim, "Enough already with the Holocaust films!" This time I suspect many straight Hollywooders — who are totally cool with gay people in general — are fighting the urge to shriek, "Enough already with the gay persecution films!"

This Oscar year there really is a glut of them and, if I'm right in my predictions, we'll see the all-gay Oscars on March 5 with victories in the top categories by "Brokeback Mountain," "Capote" and "Transamerica."

How widespread is this anti-"Brokeback" tide? It's hard to say because it's mostly unspoken, but it's very real and it makes predicting the best picture race a crapshoot. It's quite possible that we could see another one of those best picture/director splits that used to be so rare, but are now commonplace with "Chicago," "Shakespeare in Love" and "Gladiator" winning best picture while the director laurels went to, respectively, Roman Polanski ("The Pianist"), Steven Spielberg ("Saving Private Ryan") and Steven Soderbergh ("Traffic"). Whatever happens this year, it's clear that Ang Lee has the best director trophy in the bag.

In the end, I believe "Brokeback" will win because there's a clear voting pattern in the top category recently: academy members want to be on the winning team. Front-runners tend to win even when there's a growing surge against them. Backlash against "The English Patient" was so widespread that "Seinfeld" did a whole episode about it, but it still won. Even though "A Beautiful Mind" was under attack on all fronts a few years ago, it nonetheless prevailed. "Chicago" pulled off its best picture victory even though late-breaking momentum for "The Pianist" was so strong that it won the top prizes for director, actor and screenplay. That bodes well for the gay cowboys remaining tall in the saddle on Oscar night.

Photo: Could Oscar voters be fed up with all of the in-your-face gay nominees like "Brokeback Mountain"?
(Focus Features)

No more lollygagging. 'Tis time to stick out our Oscar necks, my fellow award seers. Here are the categories I believe will be claimed by the triumphant pix. It's a crying kudos shame that two of the finest films of 2005 didn't get nommed for best picture, but at least "King Kong" and "Memoirs of a Geisha" will be multiple champs in other categories while two movies that did make the cut, "Good Night, and Good Luck" and "Munich," will probably be shut out.

"BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN"
Picture
Director
Adapted Screenplay
Musical Score
Cinematography

"CRASH"
Original Screenplay
Film Editing

"KING KONG"
Sound Editing
Sound Mixing
Visual Effects

"MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA"
Art Direction
Costume Design

"CAPOTE"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Best Actor

"TRANSAMERICA"
Felicity Huffman, Best Actress

"SYRIANA"
George Clooney, Supporting Actor

"THE CONSTANT GARDENER"
Rachel Weisz, Supporting Actress

"TSOTSI"
Foreign Language Film

"WALLACE & GROMIT IN THE CURSE OF THE WERE-RABBIT"
Animated Feature

"HUSTLE & FLOW"
Song ("It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp")

"CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE"
Makeup

"MARCH OF THE PENGUINS"
Documentary Feature

"GOD SLEEPS IN RWANDA"
Documentary Short

"THE MOON AND THE SON"
Animated Short

"SIX SHOOTER"
Short Film, Live Action

Other predix worth checking out come from Robert Licuria, one of The Envelope's message-board moderators, who has his own personal site detailing his category-per-category views. Rob's a savvy kudos crystal-baller, so I recommend you check out Awards Heaven even though he dares to disagree with me in some key races. He'll be sorry!

Photo: Call me crazy, but I believe the big upset on Oscar night will come from Felicity Huffman walking away with the lead actress' purse. How ironic that she'll beat the curse against women over age 40 by portraying a man — in a dress.
(Weinstein Co.)

If I'm correct about who'll win best supporting actor and actress — George Clooney ("Syriana") and Rachel Weisz ("The Constant Gardener") — one factor will probably play a starring role: the fact that both artists really portray lead characters.

It's one of the oldest tricks in the Oscar book: if you're a lead actor who wants to win bad enough, just swallow hard, slip down into that supporting category and you'll probably clobber all rivals just based on screen time alone. Consider a few of the many examples of supporting-acting winners who arguably were leads on screen: Jennifer Connelly ("A Beautiful Mind"), Angelina Jolie ("Girl, Interrupted"), Kevin Spacey ("The Usual Suspects") and Tatum O'Neal ("Paper Moon").

Clearly, there was no female star who upstaged Eva Marie Saint in "On the Waterfront" as she battled with Marlon Brando, who famously pleaded with her in their big knockout scene, "You love me! I want you to say it to me!" She won that supporting Oscar for the haunting way she delivered her doomed reply: "I didn't say I didn't love you! I said, 'Stay away from me!'"

What all of those champs had in common was that they were relative unknowns when they won. Many Oscar strategists believe it's wise for rookies to campaign in that second tier, even when they actually have more screen time than celebrity costars who get nominated in a lead category. That strategy paid off for Timothy Hutton (his "Ordinary People" costar Mary Tyler Moore lost best actress), Haing S. Ngor ("The Killing Fields" costar Sam Waterston lost best actor) and Jim Broadbent ("Iris" costar Judi Dench lost best actress).

When celebrities try that same ploy, it sometimes backfires. Poor Ethan Hawke actually had the most dialogue and face time in "Training Day," but agreed to step down to the supporting slot so he wouldn't compete opposite costar Denzel Washington, who'd already won that race ("Glory"). Ethan ended up losing while Denzel nabbed Oscar No. 2. Anthony Hopkins and Nicole Kidman only had minimal screen time in, respectively, "The Silence of the Lambs" and "The Hours," but they refused to lower themselves to supporting status and prevailed in lead anyway.

Technically, it doesn't matter which Oscar race you campaign for — voters decide where to put you and they've been known to disagree with choices made by some contenders. Benicio Del Toro ("Traffic") won lead actor at the SAG Awards, but was placed in the supporting race at the Academy Awards, which he also won. Thirteen-year-old Keisha Castle-Hughes was obviously the lead in "Whale Rider," but she campaigned in supporting because that's where academy voters always put kids — except, egads, then. They shocked Keisha by making her the youngest person ever nominated for best actress.

This year Jake Gyllenhaal had a tough time deciding where to compete. Early in Oscar season he declared himself for supporting for "Brokeback Mountain" because it looked like he could be nominated in the lead category for "Jarhead." When "Jarhead" tanked, the Golden Globes put Jake in lead contention for "Brokeback," but he got snubbed due to the glut of major guy performances this year. Lucky for Jake, Oscar voters pushed him back down to supporting where he nabbed a nom. Considering his recent win at the BAFTA Awards and the fact that his movie is the front-runner to win best picture, Jake has a real shot at winning on March 5.

But he must get around Clooney, who also had trouble deciding which race to run in. At first his Oscar strategists decided the issue for him and put him in supporting. When Clooney got wind of it, he disagreed and publicly declared himself in lead. An outcry followed. The "Syriana" star listened carefully to all of the arguments uttered by experts and wisely switched back to supporting. Even if Jake or Paul Giamatti ("Cinderella Man") beat him, it's unlikely that he could beat Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Capote") for best actor.

Photo: Anne Baxter (right, rear) probably would've won best supporting actress of 1950 for "All About Eve," but she acted too much like her screen role as an ingénue hell-bent on upstaging a veteran showbiz diva. Citing the fact that her character's name is in the title of the film, she insisted on campaigning for best actress opposite Bette Davis. Both got nominated and lost when the costars canceled each other out.
(20th Century Fox)

Uh-oh. There's bad Emmy news for all of those Desperate Housewives, but good news for "Veronica Mars" star Kristen Bell and other TV rookies on the rise. The primetime Emmys just announced a radical overhaul of its nomination process that will probably boost underdog stars like Bell and make it harder for TV grandstanders like those Housewives to get automatic bids.

Emmy nominees for best series actor and actress plus best comedy and drama series will now be chosen in part by judging panels. In the past the top five nominees in those categories were selected by popular vote of academy members, which usually favored the most popular contenders when measured by Nielsen ratings or industry buzz. From now on they'll actually be judged by their TV work too.

Academy members will still use a popular ballot to determine finalists in those categories, but now they'll cite 15 entries for acting and 10 for series instead of 5. The finalists must submit a sample TV episode to judging panels, which will convene at the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences in North Hollywood, Calif., on June 24 and 25. The judges will then whittle down the entries to five per category, announcing the full list of nominees on July 6. Winners will be chosen at the Emmy ceremony to be telecast on Aug. 27.

The voting overhaul is likely to be welcomed enthusiastically by TV critics, who often mount nuclear attacks on the academy when Emmy nominations ignore great work on low-rated TV programs. There is little criticism of the Emmys' method of picking winners because it's far more careful and fair. Voting is limited to peers who must sign affidavits attesting that they've viewed sample videos submitted by every nominee in a category.

"This new voting initiative hits the issue of a narrow nominations process head on and significantly increases the potential for the widest and most diverse selection of nominees possible," said academy chairman Dick Askin (who is also president and CEO of The Envelope's sister company, Tribune Entertainment Co.). "It is also representative of the effectiveness of collaboration between our peer groups and the focus of our board to advance and improve our voting process whenever we are able to do so."

"The voting change really isn't new," insisted the academy's awards chief John Leverence. "We currently use the same process to determine the nominees for performers in a music variety show and guest actors in a series. Now we're extending it to the lead acting categories and best series. At this point we are not yet introducing it in the supporting acting races."

Rules were also changed to permit 700 directors and casting executives to vote in the acting categories, which were previously restricted to 1,400 performers.

It's no surprise to learn that in Hollywood, size matters. The motto applies in several curious ways to how winners are often chosen in the Oscar best picture race.

First, running time: the longest movie among the five nominees wins about half of the races. This year "Munich" has the most minutes (164), followed by "Brokeback Mountain" (134), "Crash" (113), "Capote" (98) and "Good Night, and Good Luck" (93).

Second, nominations: the movie with the most usually wins — as it has 17 times in the past 20 years. This year "Brokeback" leads with eight.

Third, epic perspective: voters love grand, sprawling landscapes and vast historic pageants played out on wide screens. Thus it should feel and look big, like "Titanic," "Gladiator," "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" or "Lawrence of Arabia."

Fourth: box office: winners should be financially successful, having the potential to reap $100 million at U.S. cinemas. Among the five current best picture nominees, "Brokeback" is the only one that has a realistic shot at that target. Currently, it's at $72 million domestically; $111 million globally.

The possibility of an upset in the Oscar best pic race is very real. Film critics Roger Ebert and Richard Roeper are officially predicting "Crash" will beat "Brokeback Mountain." Ebert, remember, called the "Shakespeare in Love" upset over "Saving Private Ryan," but then again, well, he also said "Moulin Rouge" would beat "A Beautiful Mind."

Over the past week I've run into about a dozen academy members who couldn't resist blabbing how they're voting, even without me asking. Curiously, I discovered the same amount of support for "Crash" and "Good Night, and Good Luck" as for "Brokeback." Plus a stray vote for "Munich." Fascinating, eh?

But that anecdotal survey is not a statistically reliable sampling. More accurate might be what we witnessed yesterday at the British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards (BAFTA) where "Brokeback" lost five races, but nonetheless prevailed in four top categories that really count: best picture, director, screenplay and supporting actor (Jake Gyllenhaal). Rumor has it that 200 to 900 members of BAFTA also belong to the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences, which has 5,800 members. That's an overap of 3.5% to 15% depending on which numbers you believe — statistically significant.

This is only the fifth year that the British Academy Awards were bestowed prior to their Hollywood equivalent, so it's difficult to say with authority how BAFTA tattles on the Oscar outcome. Winners usually don't line up because nominees vary significantly, but BAFTA still reveals a lot if results are studied closely. For example, "The Aviator" soared off with BAFTA's best pic laurels last year, but "Million Dollar Baby" wasn't a serious foe because it was released late to theaters and BAFTA members didn't see it. Its U.K. distributor didn't send out DVDs to British voters so it received no nominations.

Excluding the top races that "Baby" ended up taking at the Oscars (picture, director, actress and supporting actor), BAFTA forecast the other two correctly: actor (Jamie Foxx, "Ray") and supporting actress (Cate Blanchett, "The Aviator"). That's significant considering Blanchett was no shoo-in.

Three years ago BAFTA had, as Winston Churchill might say, its finest hour as an Oscar snitch when "The Pianist" won the British kudos for best picture and director, thus revealing secret Oscar momentum. Academy watchers sensed "The Pianist's" growing support within Hollywood, but, frankly, didn't know how seriously to take it. Obviously, BAFTA was onto something. On Oscar night "Chicago" still triumphed as best picture, but "The Pianist" pulled off upsets for director (Roman Polanski) and actor (Adrien Brody). Since it also won the screenplay award, voters suddenly had some 'splaining to do. How could "The Pianist" be hailed as the best directed, best written and best acted film, but not be best picture?

At BAFTA this year no rivals bumped off "Brokeback" in the picture and director races, so it's probably safe to assume that it's still — for now — the Oscar front-runner despite what gossips claim. Over the weekend I ran into one of them, a graying academy member, who snarled, "Have you ever looked out over the crowd at an academy screening? Let me put it this way: Those aren't people who are going to vote for 'Brokeback' for best picture, if you know what I mean. No way!" (He's voting for "Good Night, and Good Luck.")

What he meant was that the room is typically full of the balding and graying heads of straight, tough geezers who aren't the type eager to cuddle up with young gay cowboys.

He's probably right, but Oscar expert Pete Hammond adds, "Yes, I've seen those crowds at academy screenings and I can safely say that they're not representative of the full academy. Those screenings are usually dominated by retirees who have a lot of free time on their hands. The other academy members are diversified, they're younger and they're hipper." And, presumably, those unseen academy members must skip official screenings and watch nominees on DVDs because they're too busy making important films that might be nominated next year.

At BAFTA, "Crash" won best original screenplay as expected, but also demonstrated surprise strength when Thandie Newton pulled off an upset for best supporting actress. Perhaps "Crash" might have won supporting actor too, if two costars hadn't competed against each other(Matt Dillon, Don Cheadle). At least they split the vote between themselves. Poor George Clooney split the vote with himself, being nommed for both "Syriana" and "Good Night, and Good Luck." Considering how oddly the category was stacked, perhaps Jake Gyllenhaal shouldn't have looked so shocked when he won.

This means that "Crash" support is strong and it's truly the formidable foe that many Oscarologists warn about. "Good Night, and Good Luck" might be a secret giant killer too, but, if so, that was never likely to surface at BAFTA. There's no way Brits can understand what Clooney's movie means to liberal Hollywooders weary of right-wing leadership in Washington.

Photo: Three years ago BAFTA sounded an early warning note that "The Pianist" was gaining secret awards strength among film-industry voters.
(Focus Features)