Is secret homophobia fueling a possible 'Crash' upset?
Something weird is going on among Oscar voters — and it's also going unspoken. "Crash" and "Good Night, and Good Luck" have their passionate supporters who gush with their honest love of those best picture nominees, but most non-"Brokeback" votes I hear from Oscar voters are really anti-"Brokeback."
Scads of academy members fume to me when they tattle on how they're inking their ballots, "I'm not voting for 'Brokeback'!" Then they calm down a bit and add, "I'm voting for (fill in the blank)" and give a positive reason to justify their decision for picking an alternative. In most cases I hear contrary votes for "Crash," but there's also surprising strength for "Good Night, and Good Luck." So far I've heard equal numbers of votes for "Brokeback" as "Crash," with "Good Night" not far behind. The best picture race is really thisclose.
It's the fury that voters express when mentioning "Brokeback" that's so odd and suspicious. In some cases I believe they're people who think the film is overrated. Or they're just weary of gay cowboy jokes. But in the majority of cases I suspect it's something else and something bad that they feel they can't utter out loud, so they're holding it in. You can see it on their faces.
Could it be secret homophobia? Perhaps. The academy is comprised mostly of straight white guys with white hair who know it's intolerable to bash gays in lavender-friendly, liberal Hollywood. But I really don't think it's that in any large way. Instead, I think it's the same frustration non-Jews feel when there's a glut of Holocaust films leading the Oscar pack in Jewish-friendly Hollywood. They want to exclaim, "Enough already with the Holocaust films!" This time I suspect many straight Hollywooders — who are totally cool with gay people in general — are fighting the urge to shriek, "Enough already with the gay persecution films!"
This Oscar year there really is a glut of them and, if I'm right in my predictions, we'll see the all-gay Oscars on March 5 with victories in the top categories by "Brokeback Mountain," "Capote" and "Transamerica."
How widespread is this anti-"Brokeback" tide? It's hard to say because it's mostly unspoken, but it's very real and it makes predicting the best picture race a crapshoot. It's quite possible that we could see another one of those best picture/director splits that used to be so rare, but are now commonplace with "Chicago," "Shakespeare in Love" and "Gladiator" winning best picture while the director laurels went to, respectively, Roman Polanski ("The Pianist"), Steven Spielberg ("Saving Private Ryan") and Steven Soderbergh ("Traffic"). Whatever happens this year, it's clear that Ang Lee has the best director trophy in the bag.
In the end, I believe "Brokeback" will win because there's a clear voting pattern in the top category recently: academy members want to be on the winning team. Front-runners tend to win even when there's a growing surge against them. Backlash against "The English Patient" was so widespread that "Seinfeld" did a whole episode about it, but it still won. Even though "A Beautiful Mind" was under attack on all fronts a few years ago, it nonetheless prevailed. "Chicago" pulled off its best picture victory even though late-breaking momentum for "The Pianist" was so strong that it won the top prizes for director, actor and screenplay. That bodes well for the gay cowboys remaining tall in the saddle on Oscar night.
Photo: Could Oscar voters be fed up with all of the in-your-face gay nominees like "Brokeback Mountain"?
(Focus Features)
Why does a dislike of a film that contains gay content automatically make people homophobic? I'm not the biggest fan of Brokeback, I just don't think it's that great, but does that make me a homophobe? I highly doubt it. Perhaps this brewing upset is caused by something other, like maybe people don't think it's living up to it's critical hype, or maybe they are upset that it's basically hogged all the critic's prizes in a very strong year for film. Do these reasons make people homophobes? No. Enough with all this homophobic persecution of the gay persecution film stories.
Posted by: Jasmine | February 25, 2006 at 11:42 AM
Tom, how deep are you willing to dig to find evidence that Brokeback won't win?
Posted by: Stuart | February 25, 2006 at 11:14 AM
If the Academy does not award Brokeback Mountain best picture SOLELY because of Homophobia it will be one of the biggest acts hypocrisy in history. Where would the Motion Picture industry be without Homosexuals?!! From Directors, Actors, Producers and Writers to the Crew, you cannot deny the huge contribution of Gays in the Film industry. It would seem like a hard slap in the face to all those in the Industry who have contributed so much. I can see the headlines now. "Hollywood Stays in The Closet".
Posted by: Kim | February 25, 2006 at 11:08 AM
Tom spoke for lots of us when he wrote:
"[I]t's the same frustration non-Jews feel when there's a glut of Holocaust films leading the Oscar pack in Jewish-friendly Hollywood. They want to exclaim, 'Enough already with the Holocaust films!' This time I suspect many straight Hollywooders — who are totally cool with gay people in general — are fighting the urge to shriek, 'Enough already with the gay persecution films!'"
Amen in spades – which is why so many of us are turned off by the Oscars and Hollywood, and are “silently” boycotting its films. Like the crazies in San Francisco who do not believe the United States needs a military, Hollywood is totally out of touch with mainstream American values, and has been for a very long time. The name "La La Land" truly fits, more so than ever!
Posted by: Tim | February 25, 2006 at 10:26 AM
It's going to be BROKEBACK all the way!
I can't wait to see those cowboys ride off into the sunset...What a wonderful year it was in film, indeed. Thanks to Ang Lee for his vision and BRAVERY to proceed with this film...
Posted by: Chuck C. | February 25, 2006 at 09:50 AM
I can't help wondering if all this talk of "upset" and "backlash" isn't an attempt to generate excitement and mystery. I mean, seriously, every time BBM wins an award there are scads of articles declaring its waning support. This goes back to January before the nominations were released and people were saying that the extended voting period for this years Oscars could hurt BBM's chances-- since that time it won the DGA, WGA and the BAFTA's. Remember when Crash's win at the SAG's was declared a major upset? Did Gosford Park win the Oscar the year it received Best Ensemble? How about the SAG win for The Birdcage? And it didn't seem to help Sideways or Apollo 13. Is anyone finding similar sentiments being expressed about an upset anywhere but here?
Posted by: Steve H212 | February 25, 2006 at 08:55 AM
another angle on brokeback....
there might be a sizable group of people who feel
uncomfortable expressing their true thougths of
brokeback in public for the fear of being thought gay.
puclicly declaring they love the gay cowboy movie.
bafta was an interesting example. people voted for
brokeback mountain but obviously didn't talk about that
beforehand, since constant gardner was the expected winner ...
i wouldn't be surprised that this discomfort that o'neil describes
could have another explanation to it. though i'm sure there
are some who truly detest brokeback. not everyone can love
the same thing after all.
Posted by: marc | February 25, 2006 at 08:20 AM
OK people, I have talked to many "potential" AMPAS voters and they all agreed with Tom that a secrete movement is gaining momentum to create the biggest upset in Oscar history. This movement will led the most over dramatized movie that won just a few awards to beat BBM for every categories they compete in. This has also been confirmed by my CIA buddy who collected intelligence concerning Iraqi MWD back in 2003. So this is going to happen!
Posted by: peopleaginstmimic | February 25, 2006 at 07:37 AM
Listen, If Hollywood can give a "Pedophile" Roman Polaski a best director OSCAR they surely can give Ang Lee the Best Director OSCAR for directing a GAY film. And if Hollywood or the film industry is as GAY friendly or as GAY populated as most Gays themselves say it is why wouldn't a film like BrokeBack Montain be a lock. Then again look at Rob Marshall who is gay. He lost. So what does that tell you about the ACADEMY. Not much except that many of them don't have the slightest notion of what makes a BEST PICTURE or Director or...or...
Posted by: saltydog | February 24, 2006 at 08:45 PM
As others and I have said, if Brokeback doesn't win, AMPAS will accused of homophobia and Tom, you just provided another evidence in addition to Tony Curtis's comments.
Posted by: jck | February 24, 2006 at 08:00 PM
If I were a betting man I would say there are more pro gay rights people in AMPAS than there are homophobes. The homophobes are NOT the majority and are definitely the MINORITY. Most people in Hollywood are VERY tolerant. My god, most of West Hollywood is gay!! BBM has a very strong block of voters. The vote will be split among the other nominees.
Posted by: Drake | February 24, 2006 at 07:24 PM
so....don't keep us in suspense....what was the best film ever made???!!!
Posted by: michael | February 24, 2006 at 06:44 PM
I hope you're right in your predictions, i certainly don't want a big Crash upset. Will Ang Lee, if he wins, be the first non-caucasian to win best director? I checked out Katharine Hepburn's filmography and it's quite astonishing that not one of her films won oscar best picture, her being arguably the greatest actress of all time. In contrast, 3 of Meryl Streep's films won best picture. I wonder, who's the actor/actress with the most films wining best picture?
Posted by: ram | February 24, 2006 at 06:38 PM
The best motion picture of all time was not even nominated for an Oscar last year.
I say let the Oscars be what it is and what it is, is what it is. The Best Motion Picture, not
even a Best Picture nomination.
Boston/Ben Haith
Posted by: Boston/Ben Haith | February 24, 2006 at 05:54 PM
I am like many Americans who really dosen't care about the Oscars anymore. At one time the
Academy of Motion Pictures had some sense of what made a good picture but those days are
gone with the wind. They Academy proved it last year by not nominating the Best Motion Picture of all time.
The best motion picture that was ever made didn't even get a nomination. So let the Oscars be what it is, and what it is is what it is.
Boston/Ben Haith
Posted by: Boston/Ben Haith | February 24, 2006 at 05:51 PM
I hate to tell Tom this, but BBM has already won the DGA, the PGA, the WGA, and the BAFTAs (best film, director, adapted screenplay and supporting actor), and these are all awarded by industry groups. And AMPAS itself gave BBM more Oscar noms than any other film. If there is all of this latent raging homophobia in the industry, why didn't it show up in these precursors? Plus the same tired (and inapplicable) precedents over and over again: Roman Polanksi (The Pianist) winning best director over Rob Marshall (Chicago); Shakespeare in Love winning best pic over Saving Private Ryan, etc.
Posted by: stev4922 | February 24, 2006 at 05:10 PM