Oscars theory No. 4: Best Pic Takes an Acting Award
Cheer up, Heath Ledger, Jake Gyllenhaal and Michelle Williams. Oscar oddsmakers may not rank you as front-runners to win on March 5, but, historically speaking, the odds actually are quite good that at least one of you will strike academy gold if "Brokeback Mountain" is named best picture.
Voting trends reveal that academy members want to give acting awards to the film that claims the top prize, probably because the largest voting bloc within the academy is comprised of actors (1,500 out of 5,800 members). In the past 15 years, 10 best pictures also reaped acting kudos: "Million Dollar Baby" (Hilary Swank, Morgan Freeman), "Chicago" (Catherine Zeta-Jones), "A Beautiful Mind" (Jennifer Connelly), "Gladiator" (Russell Crowe), "American Beauty" (Kevin Spacey), "Shakespeare in Love" (Gwyneth Paltrow, Judi Dench), "The English Patient" (Juliette Binoche), "Forrest Gump" (Tom Hanks), "Unforgiven" (Gene Hackman) and "The Silence of the Lambs" (Anthony Hopkins, Jodie Foster).
Of the remaining five winners, two didn't have acting nominations: "Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" and "Braveheart." "Schindler's List's" Ralph Fiennes was expected to win, but Tommy Lee Jones ("The Fugitive") walked away with the award. Gloria Stuart might have won for "Titanic" if it hadn't been for The Babe Factor (voters preferred Kim Basinger's role as a prostitute in "L.A. Confidential").
Speaking of The Babe Factor, that might not, come to think of it, have been the reason Juliette Binoche beat Lauren Bacall in 1996, as many Oscarwatchers think. It might have been the Best Pic Takes an Acting Award theory instead — or else a combination of both. The Best Pic Takes an Acting Award theory seems to be a strong factor in Oscar voting. It might have paid off for Russell Crowe when "A Beautiful Mind" claimed the top trophy too, if the hot-headed rascal hadn't gotten all physical with that BAFTA producer.
Photo: Last year's best pic champ "Million Dollar Baby" nabbed acting trophies for two stars — Hilary Swank and Morgan Freeman.
(Warner Bros.)
Tommy Lee Jones in The Fugitive is another great example of a lead role slotted into the supporting category and winning... really Tom, you need to give my theory some review!
Posted by: Faux supporting | February 20, 2006 at 12:03 PM
It's amazing to me that the actors of Brokeback Mountain are not being the rightful credit for their strong performances. If it were not for Heath, Jake and Michelle giving full out emotional performances -- it would not be the movie it is today -- I don't care if it has got great direction, writing -- if the acting is not up to par -- it would not be this good.
Brokeback Mountain should win oscars for its acting as well.
Posted by: duncan | February 18, 2006 at 04:21 PM
In 1994 the favorite was Tommy Lee Jones. The "race" was actually between him and Fiennes, who was kind of an "intelectual choice" of many people (and the frightening revelation of "Schindler´s List"). But I remember quite well reading articles saying he was "the favorite" of the "people"... and the New York taxi drivers. It was felt that he was a talent actor never awarded, had just lost two years before with "JFK". Plus, people felt that he was the artistic asset of a popular film. And that speech about looking at dog houses was great for the clip.
Posted by: Antunes | February 18, 2006 at 04:02 AM
Ralph Fiennes was not expected to win in 1993. Tommy Lee Jones was and did for The Fugitive. I'm not sure where you are getting this information, but everybody was predicting that Tommy Lee Jones would win. It was not a surprise at all. I put him in my Oscar pool at work and at the Oscar party that I went to and all the papers predicted him to win.
Posted by: Bryan | February 17, 2006 at 09:42 PM
QUOTE:"Schindler's List's" Ralph Fiennes was expected to win, but Tommy Lee Jones ("The Fugitive") walked away with the award.:QUOTE
And that was one of the biggest mistakes the Academy has ever made. Fiennes performance
is still talked about today as being one of the greatest screen performances ever. Who talks about Jones in The Fugitive??? I still remember that night being in stunned disbelief hearing the name of Tommy Lee Jones.
Posted by: nancy | February 17, 2006 at 07:03 PM