Hey, Emmy prognosticators: you better put Andre Braugher higher up on your list of possible nominees for best drama-series actor. The star of "Thief" steals every scene in the hot new FX series, which is getting raves from TV critics. The past Emmy winner for "Homicide" is not only back in the kudos game, but he's a major player.

"He plays a professional thief who is suddenly thrust into a critical crossroads in his line of work and his family life," notes the L.A. Times. "Braugher approached the role seriously, reading technical books on safecracking and lock picking as well as talking to technical advisors."

"Braugher's compelling — just the way he says 'Shut up!' snaps you to attention," reports the Chicago Tribune.

Entertainment Weekly says "Rarely has a character hopped onto the screen feeling so completely real.

If you didn't see the premiere of the pilot episode this past week, FX will air it again tonight at 11 p.m., Sunday at 10 p.m. and Sunday at 11 p.m. FX will telecast the next original episode, titled 'I Ain't Goin' to Jail for Anyone," on Tuesday night at 10 p.m.

Photo: "Everybody steals," insists Braugher in "Thief." "Biggest thieves in the country got their own Fortune 500 companies. No such thing as a straight life."
(FX Network)

Nickelodeon's Kids' Choice Awards are the funniest kudos show. Not just because they include a burping contest and the sight of unsuspecting celebs getting drenched in green slime. Answer this question: who are the least informed people on the planet? Kids, right? So who cares what they think?

Lots of folks, that's who — albeit mostly wee ones. Last year 5.2 million viewers tuned in, 3.1 million of them children, to see "The Incredibles" win best picture and "American Idol" declared best TV show. This year the awards, hosted by Jack Black, will be telecast on Nickelodeon cable channel tomorrow night. Yes, April Fools' Day. Draw your own conclusions.

You can also draw, design or create your own awards' show experience. For the first time ever, the ceremony will be telecast live on the Internet, too — in three versions. Viewers can check out what's happening on stage, backstage and in the audience at any time.

"Think of the possibilities if adult awards shows with sagging ratings tried the same idea?" asks Associated Press reporter Dave Bauder. "If the Oscar winner for best costume design is giving a dull acceptance speech, why not click on the backstage camera to see if George Clooney is wandering around?"

Check out more about the Kids' Choice Awards, click here.

Photo: Tom Cruise demonstrated how slimy he can be at the Kids' Choice kudos in 2001.
(Nickelodeon)

Given the competitive nature of its participants, the Sports Emmys are always a good kudos clash except every four years when Olympics coverage sweeps everything.

Thank goodness 2005 was Olympics free. Now we can find out if the big boys in the World Series games on Fox can squash those sly knee-high sluggers in the Little League World Series on ABC to win the Emmy for best live sports special.

Those are just some of the nominees named this week as participants in the Sports Emmys, which will be bestowed on May 1. Of course, ESPN has the most nominations. Its three channels (ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPEN Classic) lead with a combo of 42 bids. For the full list, click here.

Hey, somebody get Hugh Jackman back on the phone and tell him, "We still love ya, baby!"

Never mind that rumor buzzing through Broadway that Oprah Winfrey will host the Tony Awards on June 11. The TV chat queen and producer of "The Color Purple" has broken her silence, insisting she will not assume emcee duties, but she does plan to attend the ceremony at Radio City Music Hall.

This year the Tony Awards will be a real drama. There isn't one mega-hit musical or play likely to sweep the kudos like "The Producers" or "Doubt." Indeed, at this point, there doesn't even seem to be a single show clearly ahead in either of those races, but it's still early. Many shows haven't officially opened yet. Some haven't even begun preview performances, but we know that they're lead contenders based upon their earlier success on distant stages.

Just the other day a noted theater journalist told me, "I think the race for best musical is between 'The Color Purple' and 'Tarzan' and it's a toss-up. Either one can win."

But that brave pronouncement was made before yesterday's news that "Jersey Boys" will begin a national tour on Nov. 6, starting in San Francisco. Usually, Tony voters don't take jukebox musicals seriously, but they absolutely insist that the winner of best musical have major touring promise. That's because a huge percentage of the 735 voters work on touring productions or else are employed on the business side of theater. Very few creative folk pick Tony winners. These aren't the Oscars where the largest voting bloc is comprised of actors.

There's a real chance that all three of those shows — "The Color Purple," "Tarzan" and "Jersey Boys" — could be outwitted by something that looks like it was recently found at the bottom of Noel Coward's old steamer trunk. I don't know what touring potential "The Drowsy Chaperone" has, but it'd be a mistake to underestimate the Tony chances of a throwback tuner expert at pulling off shockeroos. It's a charming chestnut about an obsessed modernday fan of 1920s musicals that proved to be a surprise hit 3,000 miles off Broadway at the Ahmanson Theater, sweeping the Los Angeles Drama Critics Awards. When Andrew Lloyd Webber's "The Woman in White" bombed on the Great White Way, the Marquis Theater suddenly and unexpectedly became available for rent. "Chaperone's" producers took a gamble, snatched it up and now the rialto is buzzing with curiosity about the cheesy, outdated, oddball show that's become a sudden sensation. If it matches its early hype, we Tony pundits may have to revise our view that no one show will dominate the awards.

For now, here below are my lists of who's out front in the top Tony races:

BEST MUSICAL
(Frontrunners)
"The Color Purple"
"The Drowsy Chaperone"
"Jersey Boys"
"Tarzan"

(Possible)
"Lestat"
"Ring of Fire"
"The Wedding Singer"

BEST PLAY
(Frontrunners)
"Festen"
"The History Boys"
"The Lieutenant of Inishmore"
"Rabbit Hole"
"Shining City"
"Well"

(Possible)
"Three Days of Rain" (eligible?)

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
(Frontrunners)
"The Pajama Game"
"Sweeney Todd"
"The Threepenny Opera"

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
(Frontrunners)
"Awake and Sing!"
"The Constant Wife"
"Faith Healer"
"Seascape"
"Three Days of Rain" (eligible?)
"A Touch of the Poet"

(Possible)
"The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial"
"The Odd Couple"

BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
(Frontrunners)
Bob Martin, "The Drowsy Chaperone"
Michael Cerveris, "Sweeney Todd"
Harry Connick Jr., "The Pajama Game"
Alan Cumming, "The Threepenny Opera"
Josh Strickland, "Tarzan"
John Lloyd Young, "Jersey Boys"

(Possible)
Jarrod Emick, "Ring of Fire"
Brandon Victor Dixon, "The Color Purple"
Hugh Panaro, "Lestat"

BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
(Frontrunners)
LaChanze, "The Color Purple"
Sutton Foster, "The Drowsy Chaperone"
Patti LuPone, "Sweeney Todd"
Kelli O'Hara, "The Pajama Game"
Chita Rivera, "Chita Rivera: The Dancer's Life"

(Possible)
Jenn Gambatese, "Tarzan"
Cyndi Lauper, "The Threepenny Opera"

(Click link below to continue reading)

Photo: Clockwise from upper left are pictured four strong Tony contenders for best musical — "Jersey Boys," "Tarzan," "The Color Purple" and "The Drowsy Chaperone."
(Dodger Theatricals/ Disney Theatrical/ Alliance Theatre Co./ Marquis Theatre)

The gals of "The View" sure have a clear view of how the Daytime Emmys work. They not only know that they will lose the award for best talk show host on April 28, but why.

Multiple host nominees never win, they're telling fans. Just solo candidates.

That's true. So much so, in fact, that the only time Regis Philbin won for "Live" was in 2001 when he was in between cohosts. Now last year's champ Ellen DeGeneres is the only solo contender in that race.

But don't bet your farms on "The View's" Oscar or Emmy predix next year. The reason they're so savvy about award prognostication is because the show's producers, Emmycast producers and network execs approached GoldDerby a few years ago to ask why the gabby gals keep getting slapped. I told them to get used to it and explained why. Now they're sounding like Emmy experts to the world.

At least they're braced this year and are acting like good sports with a good sense of humor while preparing for more Emmy doom ahead.

Cohosts Barbara Walters, Meredith Vieira, Star Jones Reynolds, Joy Behar and Elisabeth Hasselbeck plan to poke fun of themselves often on their show over the next month by staging skits like the "top 5 reasons the ladies won't win." The awardcast's cohost Tom Bergeron will give the gals a peek backstage at the Kodak Theater since they probably won't get to see the path that winners' will trod on April 28.

Photo: "We're a realistic show," cohost Elisabeth Hasselbeck told the AP. "You know us — we don't bull around!"
(ABC)

Surprise! Gay people love cute gay cowboys! With "Crash" not even nominated as a rival, "Brokeback Mountain" easily trotted off with the best picture award from GLAAD, the nonprofit group that hails "fair, accurate and inclusive representations" of gay life.

"Finally, an award that actually means something to me!" sighed director Ang Lee as he accepted the honor. "Some of these are very meaningful to me. OK, there was one that got away, but that's OK."

Lee swore that the GLAAD kudo is "the very last award I will accept for 'Brokeback Mountain.' And to end the journey here tonight is like coming home. The fact is this: 'Brokeback Mountain' has helped to change the world. And it is such a privilege and honor to have joined you, and all the people all over the world, who struggle for compassion and equality."

"Brokeback" beat "Capote," "The Family Stone," "Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang" and "Rent" at ceremonies held Monday night in New York City at the Marriott Marquis Hotel. More awards will be presented on April 8 at the Kodak Theater in Los Angeles, on May 25 at the Ritz Carlton in Miami and on June 10 at the San Francisco Marriott. Gay TV channel Logo will telecast highlights of the first two gay-las on April 15. VH1 will broadcast the kudofest one day later.

Other winners included "The Oprah Winfrey Show" for its episode "When I Knew I Was Gay." Newsweek and USA Today were saluted for best overall print journalism. To see a full list of recipients, click here.

Photo: Smile, cowboy! Heath Ledger and costars Jake Gyllenhaal and Michelle Williams were truly glaad they showed up for their "last" "Brokeback" kudofest.
(Focus Features)

Today the Screen Actors Guild announced its next awards timetable. Nominees for best TV and film performances will be announced on Jan. 4, 2007. Winners will be revealed on Jan. 28 at the ceremony to be held at the Shrine Exposition Center in Los Angeles and simultaneously telecast on TNT and TBS at 8 p.m. ET/PT.

Ballots will be mailed to the 4,200 members of the two SAG nominating committees (2,100 judging film, 2,100 judging TV) on Dec. 1, 2006, and must be returned by Jan. 2, 2007. Final ballots will be mailed to all 120,000 members on Jan. 5 and are due back by noon on Jan. 26.

I can't believe I'm writing this. When I first heard about Emilio Estevez both directing and writing a movie about the assassination of Bobby Kennedy, I assumed, when I was done laughing (in a morose kind of way), that it was an automatic Razzie nominee. Then last week came word that Harvey Weinstein's new shingle has picked up distrib rights.

Now here's a new punchline from Weekend Warrior columnist Edward Douglas at Comingsoon.net: " Hmmm. It seems like the hot tip out there right now is Emilio Estevez's 'Bobby.' I just interviewed Sharon Stone for 'Basic Instinct 2' and she was kind of standoffish and laissez-faire, until I asked her about playing with Demi Moore in 'Bobby,' and, honestly, I have never ever heard anyone get so excited and animated in my years as a journalist/interviewer. I was kind of embarrassed for the Sony reps standing in the room 'cause they were starting to get uncomfortable. Going to run what she said about the movie on CS soon, but looking at the cast and the subject matter and how it's being handled (similarly to 'Good Night Good Luck' with actual footage cut into the drama), I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up one of the 5 next year. Must be why the Weinsteins pounced on it."

Photo: Elijah Wood and Lindsay Lohan portray some of the people whose lives are shattered by witnessing the murder of Sen. Bobby Kennedy.
(Weinstein Co.)

American Film Institute offshoot AFI Associates will present its Platinum Circle Award to the Arquette family on May 10 at a luncheon at the Regent Beverly Wilshire Hotel in Beverly Hills. Among the related honorees will be Rosanna, Richmond, Alexis, David and wife Courtney, and Patricia and fiance Thomas Jane. Posthumous recognition will go to the siblings' father Lewis, who died in 2001, their grandfather Clifford, who passed away in 1974.

"The nine members of this true Hollywood family have made extraordinary contributions to the art of film and television," notes AFI Associates president Carole Mitchell.

A Broadway curtain rises tonight on the biggest gamble of Julia Roberts' career. The Oscar winner makes her stage debut in "Three Days of Rain," which could validate her rank as America's highest-paid actress and perhaps even earn her a Tony Award.

Or it could drown her career in acid rain released by the toughest critics anywhere: those theater snobs.

Scathing reviews are commonplace for Hollywood celebs who dare to do highfalutin Broadway, as other Oscar champs Denzel Washington and Jessica Lange learned last year. Or as TV's then-highest-paid star, Kelsey Grammer, discovered a few years ago when he lost $1.5 million — and a lot of industry and fan respect — gambling on a vanity production of "Macbeth" that closed after 13 booed performances.

Roberts isn't doing Shakespeare, but she's sticking with a popular work by an esteemed American playwright, Richard Greenberg, who achieved fame back in the 1980s for stripping yuppies bare in "Eastern Standard," and recently won the Tony Award for "Take Me Out," the gay baseball drama featuring naked athletes taking showers on stage. Greenberg's so hot right now that he had two other plays open in New York this season — "A Naked Girl on the Appian Way" on Broadway and "A House in Town" at Lincoln Center — plus debuts of new works in Chicago and Washington, D.C.

But Roberts is playing it safe by sticking with one of Greenberg's most successful, proven plays, which, lucky for Roberts, never made it to Broadway after its hit run at the Manhattan Theater Club in 1997. Now, even though someone else originated the role, if Roberts nails it just right, she could own the part in terms of Broadway lore like screen great Richard Burton owned "Camelot," winning a Tony for it.

However, beware: the person who originated the role in "Three Days of Rain" was esteemed art-house actress Patricia Clarkson, who got mixed reviews when the show opened to raves for everyone else. It's a tough, complex role that's really in two parts. In act one, Roberts will portray the daughter of an eccentric southern belle who probes the mystery of her mother's life. Act two is a flashback featuring her as her mom 35 years earlier.

"Doing this role is a very smart and safe choice by Roberts," says Paul Wontorek, editor of Broadway.com. "It's not as if she's attempting Shakespeare like Denzel and Kelsey did. She knows her fan base. She's doing what's appropriate. She's doing a wonderful little Richard Greenberg play, an ensemble that's actually dominated by the two male roles. She's downplaying herself so much, in fact, that her face isn't even on the play's poster. All you see on the poster is a pair of shoes next to a rain puddle that reflects a couple holding an umbrella. You can't see the faces of the couple."

Julia's face isn't needed on the poster to move tickets, which sold for what for musicals get ($101 for orchestra seats). That's right — sold. The 12-week limited run at the Jacobs Theatre on 45th Street sold out even before the show opened. Preview performances begin on March 28. "Rain" officially opens on April 9.

"It's already considered to be a success, at least financially," adds Wontorek. "Even if she only gets mixed reviews, it won't be remembered as one of those celebrity flops."

But what if Roberts gets excellent reviews? If she nabs a Tony Award nomination, can she win? Or, regardless of how she does, is she destined to get slapped by Tony voters like lots of other Hollywooders?

Consider last year's kudos matchups. When four celebs (Laura Linney, Mary-Louise Parker, Phylicia Rashad and Kathleen Turner) squared off against an obscure, but beloved Broadway veteran (Cherry Jones, star of best play "Doubt") the nobody won. Ditto for the category of best musical actor. Hank Azaria, Tim Curry and John Lithgow lost to Lithgow's costar in "Dirty Rotten Scoundrels." Norbert Leo Butz isn't known beyond Broadway, but he's a fave of Tony voters, who nominated him for best featured actor in a musical for "Thou Shalt Not" four years ago and finally decided he was due for a win.

Celebs don't always get snubbed at the Tonys, though. Lithgow won best musical actor for "Sweet Smell of Success." Other glitterati champs in recent years: Hugh Jackman ("The Boy from Oz"), Phylicia Rashad ("A Raisin the Sun"), Martin Short ("Little Me"), Judi Dench ("Amy's View") and Brian Dennehy and Vanessa Redgrave ("Long Day's Journey Into Night").

If Roberts gets nominated, she's likely to face off against a few other celebs — notably Jill Clayburgh in Richard Greenberg's comedy about incest, "A Naked Woman on the Appian Way," Cynthia Nixon in "Rabbit Hole," Kate Burton in "The Constant Wife" or Frances Sternhagen in "Seascape." Chances are those famous femmes might clash with past Tonys Award celeb-slayer Cherry Jones in "Faith Healer," stage veteran Judy Kaye in "Souvenir" or Lisa Kron, little-known star of "Well," a hit autobiographical show about the star's clashes with her brash mom, which recently transferred from Off Broadway.

"There's a good chance Julia will be nominated for a Tony," says David Sheward, managing editor of Backstage, the theater industry bible. "I don't think she'll experience the backlash that's often aimed at Hollywood celebrities. Tony voters are very grateful that she's doing the show because she's drawing lots of much-needed attention to Broadway. I'm sure they'll give her a fair chance. Lucky for her, the best actress race is fairly wide open this year. If Julia does a good job on stage, she could win."

Roberts confesses that she's well aware of — and even intimidated by — the challenges she faces ahead. Last year, when she told reporters she was Broadway-bound, she said, "By the time I get there, I'll be totally apoplectic. But the terror is part of the excitement." (Click link below to continue reading)

Photos: Julia won the Oscar as best actress of 2000 for "Erin Brockovich," but has focused most of her time since on caring for her new family. (Universal Pictures) Very odd: Julia's face does not appear on the poster of her first Broadway play.
(Jacobs Theatre)

If you saw "The Sopranos" on Sunday night, you may have watched Edie Falco win another Emmy. Or lose it.

No, she's not nominated yet — bids won't be unveiled until July 6 — but she can bank on making the list based upon her past Emmy history (three wins out of five nominations) and the power of her performances so far this season on "The Sopranos," which has returned to HBO after a 22-month absence.

Falco can possibly bank on winning thanks to her explosive turn as the Mafia mom in last night's "Mayham" episode. Theoretically, that should be everything she needs to blow away all rivals — unless a little-known voting factor plays a surprising role like it did last year in two top Emmy races.

Unlike the Oscar, Grammy and Tony, the Emmy is a juried showbiz award. Winners aren't chosen by a popular vote, but rather by colleagues evaluating a sample episode of an actor's best work from the past TV season.

Last week I didn't think anything on TV this season could top Falco's performance in the March 19 episode "Join the Club" when, as Carmela, she bent over Tony's unconscious body at the hospital and wept, "I guess it's been rough between us. Our hearts get so hardened against each other and I don't know why." Fighting back tears she gazed adoringly upon a man so truly heartless that he's killed dozens of pisanos and she whispered, "I love you."

But last night in "Mayham" she displayed even more impressive waterworks and emotional depth while slumped in a chair at the office of Tony's therapist. "I'm frazzled," she told Dr. Jennifer Melfi (Lorraine Bracco), confessing anxiety over her children who can no longer be fed lies about their father's secret life. "They don't decide who they're born to!"

Carmela opened up like a bank vault, letting us see inside her haunted heart and mind at long last. Falco won all those dang Emmys because she brilliantly nails one of the most intriguing roles in contemporary TV — an apparently decent, good-hearted, classy mafia wife trying her best to retain her dignity in the face of a doozy of a mistake she made in life.

At least that's what I — and most "Sopranos" viewers — have always assumed. Carmela seems so cool and admirable that I imagine she must've been tricked long ago into marrying Tony. Or maybe he pursued a career in syndicated crime bit by bit, secretly without telling her, after they settled down and started a family. What's always seemed impossible to believe is that she knew what she was getting into when she said "I do" to Tony.

But, egads, she did.

That was the shocking disclosure made last night as Carmela told Dr. Melfi, "The minute I met Tony I knew who the guy was. On my second date, he brought me and my mother each a dozen roses and my father a $200 power drill. And I didn't know if I loved him in spite of it — or because of it."

At times her soliloquy was delivered with pained honesty, her handsome face creased with deep worry lines and washed with tears. TV viewers assumed it masked a corrupted soul ashamed of the truth about her family.

But, no. (Click link below to continue reading.)

Photo: "Tony's second night in a coma, I said I loved him," Carmela (Falco) confessed to Dr. Melfi. "When was the last time I said that?"
(HBO)