
This year the Tony Awards will be a real drama. There isn't one mega-hit musical or play likely to sweep the kudos like "The Producers" or "Doubt." Indeed, at this point, there doesn't even seem to be a single show clearly ahead in either of those races, but it's still early. Many shows haven't officially opened yet. Some haven't even begun preview performances, but we know that they're lead contenders based upon their earlier success on distant stages.
Just the other day a noted theater journalist told me, "I think the race for best musical is between 'The Color Purple' and 'Tarzan' and it's a toss-up. Either one can win."
But that brave pronouncement was made before yesterday's news that "Jersey Boys" will begin a national tour on Nov. 6, starting in San Francisco. Usually, Tony voters don't take jukebox musicals seriously, but they absolutely insist that the winner of best musical have major touring promise. That's because a huge percentage of the 735 voters work on touring productions or else are employed on the business side of theater. Very few creative folk pick Tony winners. These aren't the Oscars where the largest voting bloc is comprised of actors.
There's a real chance that all three of those shows — "The Color Purple," "Tarzan" and "Jersey Boys" — could be outwitted by something that looks like it was recently found at the bottom of Noel Coward's old steamer trunk. I don't know what touring potential "The Drowsy Chaperone" has, but it'd be a mistake to underestimate the Tony chances of a throwback tuner expert at pulling off shockeroos. It's a charming chestnut about an obsessed modernday fan of 1920s musicals that proved to be a surprise hit 3,000 miles off Broadway at the Ahmanson Theater, sweeping the Los Angeles Drama Critics Awards. When Andrew Lloyd Webber's "The Woman in White" bombed on the Great White Way, the Marquis Theater suddenly and unexpectedly became available for rent. "Chaperone's" producers took a gamble, snatched it up and now the rialto is buzzing with curiosity about the cheesy, outdated, oddball show that's become a sudden sensation. If it matches its early hype, we Tony pundits may have to revise our view that no one show will dominate the awards.
For now, here below are my lists of who's out front in the top Tony races:
BEST MUSICAL
(Frontrunners)
"The Color Purple"
"The Drowsy Chaperone"
"Jersey Boys"
"Tarzan"
(Possible)
"Lestat"
"Ring of Fire"
"The Wedding Singer"
BEST PLAY
(Frontrunners)
"Festen"
"The History Boys"
"The Lieutenant of Inishmore"
"Rabbit Hole"
"Shining City"
"Well"
(Possible)
"Three Days of Rain" (eligible?)
BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
(Frontrunners)
"The Pajama Game"
"Sweeney Todd"
"The Threepenny Opera"
BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
(Frontrunners)
"Awake and Sing!"
"The Constant Wife"
"Faith Healer"
"Seascape"
"Three Days of Rain" (eligible?)
"A Touch of the Poet"
(Possible)
"The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial"
"The Odd Couple"
BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
(Frontrunners)
Bob Martin, "The Drowsy Chaperone"
Michael Cerveris, "Sweeney Todd"
Harry Connick Jr., "The Pajama Game"
Alan Cumming, "The Threepenny Opera"
Josh Strickland, "Tarzan"
John Lloyd Young, "Jersey Boys"
(Possible)
Jarrod Emick, "Ring of Fire"
Brandon Victor Dixon, "The Color Purple"
Hugh Panaro, "Lestat"
BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
(Frontrunners)
LaChanze, "The Color Purple"
Sutton Foster, "The Drowsy Chaperone"
Patti LuPone, "Sweeney Todd"
Kelli O'Hara, "The Pajama Game"
Chita Rivera, "Chita Rivera: The Dancer's Life"
(Possible)
Jenn Gambatese, "Tarzan"
Cyndi Lauper, "The Threepenny Opera"
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Photo: Clockwise from upper left are pictured four strong Tony contenders for best musical — "Jersey Boys," "Tarzan," "The Color Purple" and "The Drowsy Chaperone."
(Dodger Theatricals/ Disney Theatrical/ Alliance Theatre Co./ Marquis Theatre)