It stands to reason that, if academy members believe a film is the best of the year, they think it's the best directed and written too. Most often the picture prize lines up with best director but, strangely, we've witnessed frequent exceptions in recent years when the directors of best pics "Chicago," "Gladiator" and "Shakespeare in Love" failed to win a trophy for themselves. Oddest of all was "Driving Miss Daisy" winning best pic even though its director wasn't even nominated. However, all other 16 best pics of the past 20 years won both categories.

Thirteen of the past 20 best pictures won screenplay kudos, most of them in the category for adapted fare (nine). "Titanic" won best pic without a screenplay bid, but that's a rare oddity.

During the same two decades, 11 films won the triple crown: picture, director and screenplay.

That's why it's wise to limit your guesses in this year's races for director and screenplay to "Brokeback" and "Crash," the two best pic front-runners. Advantage goes to "Brokeback" overall because it's an adapted work. For some crazy reason Oscar voters have historically preferred movies adapted from other fare.

Photo: Best pic "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" surprised many Oscarologists by winning best screenplay, too, thus demonstrating the strong ties between the two categories.
(New Line Cinema)