Predicting primetime Emmy nominations used to be easy. You could usually count on most of last year's favorite contenders repeating, taking up three or four entries per category. To fill in the remaining slots, you'd have to decide among rookies with the most media buzz, critical respect and TV visibility.

Up until now, nominees were chosen by a popular vote of TV academy peer groups (actors voting on actors, writers on writers), so it favored popular choices with high Nielsen ratings. However, this year a new voting process is being tested that improves the chances of low-rated contenders (we're talking about you, Lauren Graham of "Gilmore Girls"). But beware, my fellow award prognosticators: trying to predict this year's Emmy lineup is a dangerous game.

Peer groups still use a popular ballot, which they receive around June 5, to narrow contenders down to 15 choices. Then, each of those 15 rivals for best drama and comedy series and best lead actor and actress in a series (supporting races will still be decided by an outright popular vote) must choose one sample episode from the past TV season as an example of their best work. Judging panels convene in late June at a Los Angeles hotel to weigh all entries, narrowing those races down to five contenders each. Final nominations will be unveiled on July 6. Winners will be announced at the Emmy ceremony on August 27.

Since final nominees now depend on savvy episode submissions, prognosticators must make their predictions based upon an unknown factor. It's very possible, for example, that Lisa Kudrow could make it into the top 15 for best comedy actress. If she does, all she needs at that point is an emotionally impressive episode of "Comeback" — and she has several doozies to choose from — and suddenly a program that will not return to HBO could have its own comeback in a top Emmy contest. If she does nab a nomination and voters like the episode she submits for the next round of balloting to decide winners — which are chosen by about 50 to 70 peers watching DVDs at home — Kudrow could add a bookend Emmy to her fireplace mantel to complement the golden girl she won in 1998 as best supporting actress on "Friends."

Here are my lists of leading contenders in the top Emmy categories. Special thanks to The Envelope's forum posters who helped to compile it, especially our moderators Xanadu (Robert Licuria) and Boomer (Chris Beachum). (To see Xanadu's own predix, which vary from mine a bit, check out his personal website "Awards Heaven" — click here.)

Please join in the discussion about this list in our Emmy forum — click here.

BEST DRAMA SERIES
(Frontrunners)
"Big Love"
"C.S.I."
"The Closer"
"Grey’s Anatomy"
"House"
"Huff"
"Law & Order"
"Lost"
"Rescue Me"
"Rome"
"The Shield"
"Six Feet Under"
"The Sopranos"
"Thief"
"24"
"Veronica Mars"
"The West Wing"

(Possible)
"Alias"
"Battlestar Gallactica"
"Commander-in-Chief"
"C.S.I: Miami"
"E.R."
"Law & Order: SVU"
"Medium"
"N.C.I.S."
"Nip/Tuck"
"Prison Break"
"Without a Trace"

Photo: Although the Television Critics of America bestowed its best new series award to "Gilmore Girls" after its 2000-2001 debut, the WB program has received only one Emmy nomination — for best makeup, which it won in 2004. Critics are especially furious that Lauren Graham has been snubbed five times for best actress despite reaping noms from the Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globes. Now they wonder: will Graham finally be nominated under the new Emmy voting system, which bolsters underdogs on low-rated cable channels?
(WB Network)

The recipients of best song at the Oscars admit that some pals didn't know what they won.

"A lot of my friends don't even know what an Academy Award is," Three 6 Mafia member Juicy J told MTV. "They thought I won a Grammy. I said, 'N---a, you crazy. This is an Oscar, one of the biggest awards you can get!'"

The rap artist also admits that he and his bandmates pimped their prize for "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" from "Hustle & Flow."

"I couldn't get in a club, so I pulled out the Oscar and they let me right in," he said. "We was in L.A. for two weeks and we didn't get a chance to go home. So we had to carry the Oscar everywhere we went because they said we should get insurance for it because somebody might try to take it or rob you for it. It's gold. It weighs eight and a half pounds.

"When I got back to Memphis, I put the Oscar in a fireproof safe," he added. "So if you try to burn the house down, you can't burn the Oscar."

As Julia Roberts prepares to make her stage debut tomorrow night in "Three Days of Rain" on Broadway, it's a good time to take stock of other Hollywood glitterati treading the boards of New York theaters in pursuit of theatrical legitimacy. Many of them will be eligible for Tony Awards when nominations are announced on May 16.

Right now Harry Connick Jr., is the hottest celeb on the Great White Way as the star of "The Pajama Game," a revival of the Tony Awards' best musical of 1955. Connick is no Broadway rookie. He was nominated for a Tony for writing the musical score to "Thou Shalt Not" in 2002, but now he's making his theatrical debut as a performer. The Hollywood Reporter calls the sometimes-shirtless star "smoldering" in a "monster hit," adding, "Connick's performance has a certain stiffness, to be sure, but it works perfectly well for his character, a cocky ladies' man who finds himself hopelessly tongue-tied when it comes to the gorgeous Babe. Highly appealing and charismatic, he naturally delivers swell vocalizing, delivering such classic songs as 'Hey There' with a smooth crooning style comparable to the young Sinatra."

Alec Baldwin stars in Joe Orton's "Entertaining Mr. Sloane" at the Laura Pels Theatre, his fourth Broadway show. (Baldwin made his debut in Orton's "Loot" in 1986.) Critics have been relatively kind to him, although not to the production. "Only Alec Baldwin's stuffy, huffy Ed shows a glimmer of authenticity," said the snippy Village Voice. "Everything else feels less like Orton's 'Entertaining' than Fox Entertainment."

Alan Cumming, Cyndi Lauper and the father of Madonna's daughter Lourdes (Carlos Leon) appear in the sixth Broadway revival of Kurt Weill and Bertolt Brecht's 1933 "Threepenny Opera" at Studio 54. Currently in previews. Critics can't take out their long knives till the official opening on April 20. "It's about the poor and whores and beggars," Cumming told gossipmeister Michael Musto. "(Tickets cost) like $110 or something stupid."

Cynthia Nixon's marriage is on the rocks as she and her husband (John Slattery) grieve over the tragic death of their two-year-old son in "Rabbit Hole," a new play by David Lindsay-Abaire presented by Manhattan Theatre Club at the Biltmore Theatre in a limited run that closes on April 9. The cast, which also includes Tyne Daly is "led by the wonderful Cynthia Nixon in what will surely be among the finest performances on a New York stage this season," cheered Variety.

Mark Ruffalo and Lauren Ambrose star in the fourth Broadway revival of Clifford Odets' masterpiece "Awake and Sing!" about a Bronx family struggling to survive the Depression. Previews began last weekend at the same theater where the play had in its original production in 1935, staged by the Group Theater -- the Belasco on 44th Street. Ruffalo plays a one-legged wisecracker who flirts with the pregnant Ambrose. Official opening is April 17.

Ralph Fiennes took the biggest gamble of all on Broadway, performing "Hamlet" in 1995 and won a Tony. Now he stars in a revival of "Faith Healer" by Brian Friel (Tony champ for 1992 best play "Dancing at Lughnasa") as a preacher peddling miracles while traveling with his wife (Cherry Jones). It begins previews at the Booth Theatre on April 18 and opens on May 4.

David Schwimmer portrays Lieutenant Barney Greenwald, a Jewish defense attorney, in the second Broadway revival of Herman Wouk's "The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial," which begins preview performances on April 14 and officially opens on May 7. "I was actively looking for something to do here in New York," Schwimmer told Playbill. "I knew the book and the movie, but I'm embarrassed to say that I didn't know it as a play, even after going to Northwestern, thinking I had a good education in theater. When I read it was shocked by how damn good it was."

Reviews of the revival of Neil Simon's "Barefoot in the Park" have been bad, but it's still a hit, selling $300,000 in tickets each week to theater-goers eager to see Amanda Peet in her Broadway debut and stage veterans Jill Clayburgh and Tony Roberts. Opened Feb. 16 at the Cort Theatre.

(Click link below to continue reading)

Photos: Harry Connick Jr. and Kelli O'Hara in "Pajama Game" (Roundabout Theatre); Alec Baldwin and Chris Carmack in "Entertaining Mr. Sloane" (Laura Pels Theatre); Cynthia Nixon with John Slattery in "Rabbit Hole" (Manhattan Theatre Club); Ralph Feines in "Faith Healer" (Booth Theatre).

For the past several years GoldDerby has led an aggressive (some would say, ahem, too aggressive) mediawide drive to open up the Daytime Emmy voting process to permit journalists and other outsiders to see what the judges see, a policy that's always surrounded the Primetime Emmys. Admittedly, the showdown got tense last year, but finally the TV academy's Awards Committee and Board of Trustees voted to release DVDs of the episodes to the media. (Memo to the TV academy: thank you!)

Each nominee for best series and acting submits two sample episodes from the past TV season as examples of their best work to peer-group judges who evaluate them at home or office. On April 8, the last day of Emmy judging, The Envelope will feature extensive coverage and analysis of the episodes submitted in every category that will be featured on the ceremony telecast on April 28. Our own judges are viewing them now.

Soon you can see them, too. ABC's sister cable channel Soapnet will telecast the episodes submitted by most lead actress nominees on April 8. On April 15, it will feature many episodes submitted by contenders for lead actor and best series. Not all soaps have agreed to participate yet, but negotiations continue. Word is still pending, for example, from "The Young and the Restless."

Photo: Beth Ehlers has given an explosive performance this year on 'Guiding Light.' Can she blow away Emmy judges with her episode submissions?
(CBS)

Never mind all of those divas on TV soap operas. Behind the screen, where real power is wielded, Mimi Torchin reigns as one of the queens of daytime TV journalists. The former editor-in-chief of Soap Opera Weekly is still a columnist for that publication plus, on the web, at Soapnet.com. What does she think of the Daytime Emmy nominations? We asked her media majesty.

Mimi says, "It's a pretty interesting race in every category, though I thought there were some of the worst nomination oversights in years! How did 'One Life's' John Paul Lavoisier not get nominated (I don't know if he fits agewise into younger actor or supporting)? He stole every scene he was in, plays comedy with equal aplomb as drama (not something most soap actors can do) and, as Randy Jackson would say, just "brought it" every time he was on screen. Also, 'Y&R's' Sharon Case and Josh Morrow broke my heart on a regular basis last year pre, during and post Cassie's (their on-screen daughter) death. But sometimes a snub one year pays off the next, which I think will be the case with lead actress nominee Beth Ehlers. She had the year of her career in the previous Emmy year and didn't get a nod. This year she's the frontrunner because, though voting is supposedly done on only two hours' work, I think the press has made it clear she was robbed last year. Finally (aren't you glad you asked?), I think the supporting actress and younger actor will be the hardest categories to judge. I haven't watched the submissions yet so I don't know what scenes they picked, but I would be hard-pressed off the top of my head to choose between 'Y&R's' Tracey Bregman, who had a specatcular year and 'GL's' Gina Tognoni, who was also just sensational. Dinah is now my favorite character on that show. As for younger actor, though I'd go for 'Y&R's' Michael Grazadei, last year's winner (David Lago) was my last choice and so out of left field that without having yet reviewed the submissions I don't even want to hazard a guess as to who will win. Whoever it is, I wonder if he'll do a Chris Walken imitation in his acceptance speech in lieu of thanking anyone, too!"

The Daytime Emmys will be telecast live by ABC at the Kodak Theater in Los Angeles on April 28.

Photo: Mimi Torchin is one of daytime TV's top experts who'll pipe soon with her predictions at The Envelope.
(Soapnet)

First, the good news. The London Times says the new lavish stage adaptation of "Lord of the Rings" that opened last night in Toronto is "full of energy and wonder." Newsweek calls it "rousing and resonant." Time magazine hails the show as "the season's definitive megamusical."

But those are some of the few raves. Otherwise, scathing reviews are raining down upon the most expensive stage production in history like hell fire from Mount Doom.

The Associated Press says it's a "never-ending production" that "drains" J.R.R. Tolkien's novels of their "spirit and emotion." The Toronto Star declares it's "dull," warning, "You may find yourself fighting back tears, but they'll be ones of disappointment." The Los Angeles Times adds, "Artistically, the stage version makes the movie seem that much more impressive." Read the full L.A. Times review — click here.

Forget this show coming to Broadway where a good review from The New York Times is essential. Lead critic Ben Brantley writes, "Everyone and everything winds up lost in this $25 million adaptation of J.R.R. Tolkien's cult-inspiring trilogy of fantasy novels. That includes plot, character and the patience of most ordinary theatergoers."

The New York Post reports, "While the official line is that 'The Lord of the Rings' is still going to be staged in London next year, sources say the producers and creators are bracing themselves for what could be a complete wipeout in Toronto — and the end of the line for the show."

Click the "continue reading" link below to read a roundup of reviews quoted at greater length.

Photo: Hobbits confront the Ents on stage in the new musical adaptation of "The Lord of the Rings."
(Kevin Wallace Ltd./ EPO)

The Hollywood Reporter says "Crash" studio Lionsgate may have another top awards contender in the works with "Welcome to America" by Marco Kreuzpaintner ("Summer Storn") and screenwriter Jose Rivera (Oscar nominee for "The Motorcycle Diaries"). Based upon a New York Times Magazine expose of international sex trafficking, the movie, starring Kevin Kline, will probably be retitled before it's released to theaters later this year.

Martin A. Grove reports, "Having had a look at about six minutes of early footage from the film, I can tell you this is an intense movie revolving around the kind of serious and important subject matter that could easily put Lionsgate back in the thick of this year's awards season action. 'Welcome' (or whatever it winds up being called) stands to be one of the planks in its Oscar and Golden Globes platform."

Photo: Wunderkind Marco Kreuzpaintner is only 28 years old.
(Lionsgate)

"Randy Quaid, who plays a tough sheep rancher in 'Brokeback Mountain,' claims he was fleeced for his work in the movie," reports the Associated Press. "Quaid filed a lawsuit Thursday in Los Angeles County Superior Court alleging the producers got him to work cheap by falsely claiming the movie was 'a low-budget, art house film, with no prospect of making any money.'"

Quaid is suing Focus Features for $10 million. Read more — click here.

The readers of Britain's Empire Magazine roared their disagreement with Oscar voters over what was the finest film of 2005. "King Kong" gobbled up their best picture award while devouring also-rans "Crash," "Sin City," "War of the Worlds" and "Star Wars: Episode III."

"This was absolutely, really needed because we were doing really badly this year," said Andy Serkis, who portrayed Kong, accepting the prize in London. "This film was made with a lot of passion and a lot of love. The script was crafted. It was a very political film — and it only cost $270 million!"

Over the past decade of their existence, the Empire Awards have agreed with the Oscars upon best pics "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King," "Gladiator" and "Braveheart," but otherwise have stuck with blockbusters when Hollywood voters preferred more arty fare, opting for "The Bourne Supremacy," "The Matrix" and "Men in Black."

This year there was a surprise in the race for best director.

"That's just ridiculous," said Nick Park when he and co-helmer Steve Box, directors of "Wallace & Grmoit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit," beat "Kong's" Peter Jackson and "Munich's" Steven Spielberg.

Best Actor: Johnny Depp, "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory"

Best Actress: Thandie Newton, "Crash"

Best Comedy: "Team America: World Police"

Best Thriller: "Kiss Kiss Bang Bang"

Best Horror: "The Descent"

Best Science Fiction/Fantasy: "Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith"

Scene of the Year: Birth of Vader in "Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith"

The Empire Inspiration Award: Stephen Frears

The Empire Icon: Brian Cox

Best Newcomer: Kelly Reilly

The Empire Outstanding Contribution Award: the Harry Potter films

The Empire Lifetime Achievement Award: Tony Curtis

Photo: 'King Kong' wasn't nominated for best picture at the Oscars, but won three statuettes in the tech categories.
(Universal Picture)

Here's music to the ears of J.R.R. Tolkien fans: The long-awaited stage musical adaptation of "Lord of the Rings" opens Thursday in Toronto at the Princess of Wales Theatre.

And it's really a big deal. The extravaganza, starring 55 performers, is the most expensive theater production ever, costing $23 million.

Actually, it's not really a musical. The show includes only a few songs, written by "Bombay Dreams" composer A.R. Rahman and the Finnish folk-pop group Varttina. But then it's not really a play either. British director Matthew Warchus describes it as "a hybrid of text, physical theater, music and spectacle never previously seen on this scale."

Lots of spectacle. The special effects are rumored to be dazzling and the show takes lots of creative chances, using a chorus of wailing elves to provide commentary during battle scenes. Just like in Peter Jackson's film trilogy, the show is stolen by dastardly Gollum, who's portrayed by Michael Therriault, a theater-trained Canadian actor. Most other cast members are Canadian, too, although British actors portray Frodo (James Loye) and his hobbit pal Pippin (Owen Sharpe).

Producer Kevin Wallace and director Warchus are from London's West End, where "Lord of the Rings" originally was set to open in 2005, but couldn't be booked into the Dominion Theatre because it was hogged by the long-running hit Queen musical "We Will Rock You."

After its trial run in Toronto, "Lord of the Rings" will finally open at the Dominion in early 2007. No plans are yet set for Broadway, where the show will cost a whopping $30 million to produce due to union obligations. But if it makes it to the Great White Way after proving itself in Canada and the U.K., "Lord of the Rings" will probably reign over the Tony Awards much like it did the Academy Awards.

Describing this "Lord of the Rings," producer Wallace told the L.A. Times, "There are simple but moving relationships of romantic love, between Arwen and Aragon; of friendship and loyalty, Sam and Frodo; of parent-child bonds as Gandalf has with many of the hobbits. If we can get the audience to connect with that, then they will actually have an experience of substance." To read the full preview article, click here.

The Toronto production marks the 50th anniversary of the publication of the complete "Lord of the Rings" book trilogy.

Photo: The new stage version of "Lord of the Rings" purports to follow Tolkein's storyline more closely than Peter Jackson's three films, which won a total of 16 Academy Awards. The last installment, "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" went undefeated at the Oscars, claiming a record-tying 11 awards, including best picture of 2001.
(Kevin Wallace Ltd./ EPO)

Celebs did more than just give autographs to fans while milling around the white tents on the Santa Monica beach at the Independent Spirit Awards. Many signed a Harley-Davidson Softail Deluxe motorcycle, which will be auctioned off on EBAY between Thursday and Sunday.

Proceeds go to Film Independent's Project: Involve program, which provides mentors and education to budding filmmakers. Getting them all revved up by signing the motorcycle were such stars as Naomi Watts ("King Kong"), Sienna Miller ("Casanova") and Terrence Howard and Matt Dillon ("Crash").

Take heart, gay cowboy lovers. "Brokeback Mountain" may have lost best picture, actor and supporting actor at the Oscars, but it's a frontrunner in at least one race at the MTV Movie Awards, which will announce nominations on Monday: best kiss.

Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal are a cinch to nab a bid for their passionate lip-locking. My early prediction: they'll win.

The MTV awards love to get kinky. Heath was a contender for the best kiss trophy a few years ago for his rather traditional bussing of Shannyn Sossamon in "A Knight's Tale." He lost out to two guys: Jason Biggs and Seann William Scott in "American Pie 2."

But same-sex smoochers don't always prevail. As lesbians in "Monster," Charlize Theron and Christina Ricci, couldn't overcome a menage a trois: Owen Wilson, Carmen Electra and Amy Smart in "Starsky & Hutch."

Heath or Jake could even win best actor, since the MTV Awards often provide revenge for Oscar losers. For instance, MTV fans preferred Nicole Kidman ("Moulin Rouge!") over Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball") and still-Oscarless Tom Cruise (Mission: Impossible II") over Russell Crowe ("Gladiator").

When it comes to best picture, "Gladiator" and "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" are rare examples of times when Oscar and MTV voters have agreed. Last year MTV preferred "Napoleon Dynamite," which (not surprisingly) didn't land an Oscar nomination, over "Million Dollar Baby," which got snubbed by MTV.

There's a good chance "Brokeback Mountain" will be nominated for best pic by the TV music channel, and it has a decent shot at winning. If so, it would exact the same kind of revenge as Oscar nominee "Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers," which triumphed on MTV after losing to "Chicago" at the Academy Awards.

The Envelope's message boards are abuzz with speculation over who'll reap MTV noms on Monday. Check out — and join in — the dish by clicking here.

Photo: Showbiz awards may kiss and make up with gay cowboys, hailing Heath and Jake for their two passionate smooches on screen — one in the stairwell outside Ennis' home (above), the other by campfire on Brokeback Mountain.
(Focus Features)