SubscribeTwo Oscar upsets that worry me most
No, no, no, I'm not going to change my Oscar predictions. Not even my out-on-a-thin-limb call backing Felicity Huffman. I remain confident she's going to win. But I'm awfully nervous about two other races.
I think odds still favor Rachel Weisz, but all Oscarologists know that shockeroos happen most often in those supporting slots. Weisz has the edge because she's already won the Golden Globe Award and SAG Awards (excuse me, it's technically called "The Actor"), but I have a strong hunch that Michelle Williams — not Amy Adams — is the gal with the strongest shot at beating her.
Williams has two of my pet Oscar theories going for her: Long-Suffering Wife and, assuming "Brokeback" prevails on high, Best Pic Takes an Acting Award.
I'll stick with Weisz, though, because she has that other theory going for her in addition to the key precursor kudos: Lead Stars Win Supporting Categories. And, oh yeah, she has a British accent. A big plus. That's a whole other Oscar Theory I haven't yet written about in depth, but suffice it say that British/Aussie/Kiwi/Welsh accents matter to Americans with a cultural inferiority complex (consider recent winners Cate Blanchett, Catherine Zeta-Jones, Judi Dench, Jim Broadbent and Michael Caine.) Both Weisz and Williams have The Babe Factor.
But I don't really assume that "Brokeback" will nab the top prize. My private poll of actual Oscar voters is not scientific. Only 20 have tattled to me so far, but "Crash" now leads by two votes (nine total), compared to seven for "Brokeback Mountain," three for "Good Night, and Good Luck" and one for "Munich." Poor "Capote" — none at all.
Nonetheless, I'm still in the saddle with those gay cowboys because "Brokeback" has most of the key indicators (most nominations, most box office, most acclaim and most epic scope, both cinematically and in terms of big ideas) and because I'm reminded painfully of a past best pic race when a much larger percentage of academy members told me they voted for "Moulin Rouge" over "A Beautiful Mind" and — ouch — I fell for it. I suspect that the voters most eager to blab to us are the ones who want you to know how independent-minded they are.
Photo: Weisz backers, beware: We must be leery of Michelle Williams' in the supporting actress race!
(Focus Features)
I believe Tom made a mistake on Good Morning America when he said that Chariots of Fire won in an upset ov er Reds. Actually, the favorite that year was On Golden Pond.
Posted by: s j fix | March 05, 2006 at 11:56 AM
Tom, you are hilarious! With all your predictions! Let's face it, there will be no upset in the Best Picture category. Brokeback Mountain will Win outright.
Posted by: Catesa | March 04, 2006 at 11:33 AM
Ha, I see Mr. O' Neill is still in his delusional state, predicting Huffman to win despite all evidence to the contrary.
I can already predict the article Mr. O Neill will write after Huffman LOSES. Something along the lines of:
"So I was wrong, Huffman didn't pull off the upset, but my Oscar insiders reveal that the race was thisclose, had the voting been extended by a week, Huffman would have won... blah blah blah"
Posted by: melvel | March 03, 2006 at 10:30 PM
We've been running an Oscar jokes/polling site for eight years -- and our voters have a lot of love for Gyllenhaal. Is he the upset?
I know traditionally actors don't win awards for being in cultural phenom movies, but Jake's got a warm, straightforward part in a movie that everyone saw and that everyone felt touched by.
Clooney, on the other hand, may have too eggheady a year for Oscar. Who saw and understood Syriana (also known as Traffic II)? And who felt emotionally touched by Good Night, and Good Luck?
alir
www.thefelixes.com
Posted by: alir | March 03, 2006 at 03:53 PM
If "Walk The Line" was nominated in the Best Picture category, then I would have cause to worry as a credible "threat" to "Brokeback Mountain." In any Academy Award season, there is going to be a movie touted by various critics as the "threat" to the front-runner. That's a given!
Since "Walk The Line" did not get the Best Picture nomination, the naysayers now have chosen their second choice, "Crash," as the "threat."
In my opinion, it would be asinine for the Academy to award "Crash" with Best Picture of the Year since Paul Giamatti or George Clooney are so highly favored to win the Best Supporting Oscar and since Ang Lee is 99% a shoo-in for the Best Director Oscar, "Crash" would have very little to substantiate itself as a Best Picture winner. People would be going around saying, "What...the movie that directed itself?"
Last year, "Million Dollar Baby" was the major rival to "The Aviator." Remember? However, there was a major difference. "Million Dollar Baby" won the DGA Award for Clint Eastwood. Almost always, whatever movie wins Best Director goes on to win the Best Picture of the Year Award. Ang Lee won this year's DGA Award. Best Director/Best Picture combination is not an absolute, but I will say that the probability is very high.
Posted by: G.K. | March 03, 2006 at 01:33 PM
I think, in the end, "Brokeback" will go 0 for 3 in the acting categories. I do agree that Weisz is stll the one to beat. But I think Amy Adams or Catherine Keener would be the upsets.
For my take on the six major categories, click on my name.
Posted by: Wayne | March 03, 2006 at 11:03 AM
I thought when I first saw this header that Tom had finally changed to Reese.
But it didn't happen. Oh well.
Posted by: Mike | March 03, 2006 at 06:22 AM
I'm getting the feeling that William Hurt is going to pull the upset. There are too many good performances in the supporting actor category and there will be a close split vote among all of them.
Posted by: Mobindc | March 03, 2006 at 05:28 AM