'Grey' and 'The Office' will win the top Emmys
BEST DRAMA SERIES
X - "Grey's Anatomy"
"House"
"The Sopranos"
"24"
"The West Wing"
"Grey's Anatomy" will nab the Emmy because it was TV's big winner this past year: a Nielsen ratings hit and critics' darling that was also America's favorite new watercolor show. But beware: voters may be tempted to give four-time past champ "The West Wing" a final salute after it rallied creatively this season. Sometimes voters get all sentimental about departing shows, but, strangely, only comedies like "Everybody Loves Raymond," "Barney Miller" and "The Mary Tyler Moore Show." No drama series has ever prevailed after departing the airwaves. "The Sopranos" could also be a spoiler. It won the last time it was in this category, but it wasn't eligible last year so Emmywatchers may now underestimate its strength. "24" isn't taken seriously enough because it's a thriller. "House" has the right gravitas, superb writing and dynamite acting, but it's viewed primarily as a performance vehicle for Hugh Laurie.
BEST COMEDY SERIES
X - "The Office"
"Arrested Development"
"Scrubs"
"Curb Your Enthusiasm"
"Two and a Half Men"
Remember how "Frasier" used to dominate this race — winning FIVE times (a record)? That's because Emmy voters are snobs who want their winners to have esoteric appeal. Thus "The Office" will win, which is good news because it also happens to be the best comedy on TV. Sure, "Arrested Development" could upset, but that happened two years ago when voters had an agenda to save that low-rated critics' fave. Its Emmy win probably kept the show alive for a while, but it never found sufficient audience, so voters have probably given up on it now. "Scrubs" deserves to win, but it's too fratboyish for those geezer guys who belong to the TV academy. "Curb" hasn't won yet, so why should this year be different? TV's highest-rated comedy, "Two and a Half Men," has no chance to win because it has no snob appeal.
Photo: If ABC's "Grey" wins best drama series, few of the alphabet network's regular viewers may be tuned in to the NBC Emmycast since ABC chiefs, furious over the snubs of "Lost" and "Desperate Housewives," are counter-programming with "Pirates of the Caribbean."
(ABC)
Interesting analysis. But last year it was another ABC series -- "Desperate Housewives" -- that was the supposed watercooler-discussion rookie. (Not that I truly believe anybody discusses last-night's television over a work these days.)
Let's say that "Grey's Anatomy" prevails. If it does, it achieves it by offering a wonderul mix of its offbeat romantic comedy and drama that culls votes in its favor. Yes, it's in the episode submissions.
But I think it's a mistake to dismiss five-year Fox action-drama "24." You see, ordinarily, I'd dismiss it as well. But it had a spectacularly jaw-dropping season that had viewers on the edge of their seats. The show took tremendous chances and had more balls than its four competitors combined. So it definitely has earned it. But while it's in the tapes submitted that the winner is determined, a lot of this analysis talks about the types of shows with the potential to prove victorious. Alas, it appears already forgotten that last year's Emmy winner for outstanding drama series is also an action-thriller: ABC's "Lost."
Posted by: DS0816 | August 18, 2006 at 07:01 PM
I think you're underestimating "24" in the drama series race. I too am predicting "Grey's Anatomy" to win, but think "24" is a greater threat than you think: it may be an action thriller, but it had its best season yet, is a ratings success, and has more buzz than ever. And it submitted episodes where its hero saves an airport of hostages from terrorists and battles a double agent inside the administration, so it feels important and timely. And since it's the most nominated series of the year (including first-ever supporting acting nominations), that suggests that much of the Academy sees it as more than just an action thriller.
Also, "Grey's Anatomy" has another hurdle to overcome: it's a soap opera, and soaps seldom succeed in the top races ("Lost" doesn't count).
Posted by: Daniel | August 18, 2006 at 10:34 AM
"Two and a Half Men" has no chance to win because it sucks. For lack of a better word.
Posted by: Richard | August 18, 2006 at 07:29 AM