BEST REALITY COMPETITION PROGRAM
X - "The Amazing Race"
"American Idol"
"Dancing With the Stars"
"Project Runway"
"Survivor"

It's dumb to bet against "The Amazing Race," which always wins here. I hear that "Survivor" handed in another dull stinker episode. Did "Idol" finally wise up and submit an episode from later in the season when the competition finally heats up? I keep hearing that they always submit early junk.

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
X - Denis Leary, "Rescue Me"
Peter Krause, "Six Feet Under"
Christopher Meloni, "Law & Order: SVU"
Kiefer Sutherland, "24"
Martin Sheen, "The West Wing"

Close, squeaker race between Denis Leary and Christopher Meloni. Leary has the edge because he's got the highest Cool Factor in the TV industry and because he gave Emmy judges a powerful episode entry in which we see a recovering alcoholic fight to stay sober while dealing with the painful irony that his son was killed by a drunk driver. However, Leary's performance is understated at first and builds slowly. An upset is very possible by Meloni, whose huge, fireworks perf is big and flashy throughout his episode. Forget Sheen. Too understated. Sutherland is cursed by starring in a thriller, a TV genre voters don't take seriously. Krause's portrayal of a mortician coping with his own mortality is touching, but may not be edgy enough.

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"
Geena Davis, "Commander in Chief"
Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit"
Frances Conroy, "Six Feet Under"
X - Allison Janney, "The West Wing"

Not Allison Janney again? Yes, I'm afraid so. She only had one strong episode this past season, but that's all a nominee needs and she had a doozy ("Institutional Memory"). Hollywood hipsters prefer Kyra Sedgwick, who has a good chance of prevailing. Her episode is dramatic and brave as she fights off the attack of a S&M sex fiend while investigating an icky murder. Mariska lost last year for giving an even bigger, better performance about children in peril. Frances Conroy is fine, but she never stops crying and looking mopey-faced. Watch out for Geena Davis: her role is understated, but packed with defiance, a quality that often fuels upsets.

BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Larry David, "Curb Your Enthusiasm"
Kevin James, "The King of Queens"
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk"
X - Steve Carell, "The Office"
Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men"

Steve Carell would have this in a cake walk except for his burned foot. Remember that lame episode of "The Office" where he burned his tootsies on his George Foreman grill? That's what he submitted to Emmy judges. I still think he'll win thanks to his overall cache, but he's vulnerable. Two-time past champ Shalhoub has the one-hour advantage and, let's be honest: size matters in Hollywood. Kevin James is a hilarious revelation as he dangles from that stripper's pole while trying to teach his wife to act like a floozy. Larry David is devilishly funny while plotting a scheme that saves him from giving one of his kidneys to Richard Lewis. Sheen is out of it. He didn't choose his Emmy episode based upon the quality of his acting, but rather because it was about him losing a work-related award, hoping that the irony would impress Emmy voters. Yawn.

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
X - Lisa Kudrow, "The Comeback"
Jane Kaczmarek, "Malcolm in the Middle"
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "The New Adventures of Old Christine"
Stockard Channing, "Out of Practice"
Debra Messing, "Will & Grace"

All 5 funny girls have a serious chance to win. Julia Louis-Dreyfus has the most people rooting for her because she's a hip chick who's breaking "The 'Seinfeld' Curse" with an endearing new show. But her episode submission isn't a dazzler. The best two eppies were submitted by Lisa Kudrow ("Classic Leno," the series finale) and Jane Kaczmarek ("Lois Strikes Back," in which we finally see the sweet, tender side to that monstrous momma). Call it a tossup, with the slight edge going to Kudrow because she displays a wider span of roller coaster emotions.

BEST ACTOR IN A MOVIE OR MINISERIES
Charles Dance, "Bleak House (Masterpiece Theatre)"
Donald Sutherland, "Human Trafficking"
X - Ben Kingsley, "Mrs. Harris"
Jon Voight, "Pope John Paul II"
Andre Braugher, "Thief"

I'm really nervous about picking Kingsley. He portrays such a vile cad in "Mrs. Harris," but his character is utterly fascinating, too. If I had the guts, I'd switch my vote to Charles Dance, thus giving up a flashy Oscar winnah, but I'm a wimp.

BEST ACTRESS IN A MOVIE OR MINISERIES
Kathy Bates, "Ambulance Girl"
Gillian Anderson, "Bleak House (Masterpiece Theatre)"
X - Helen Mirren, "Elizabeth I"
Judy Davis, "A Little Thing Called Murder"
Annette Bening, "Mrs. Harris"

Personally, I'd vote for Annette Bening, but she always loses Hollywood peer-group prizes. And she'll lose again, inevitably, to Helen Mirren who really rules on the tube screen.