Here's how the predix of our Oscar pundits are shaping up so far. We have 7 or 8 more gurus to hear from, but right now we already have input from Steve Pond (Oscar Beat, The Envelope), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) and Jeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere.com). Stack 'em all up and they look like this:

In "The History Boys" on Broadway, Richard Griffiths gets pressured to retire early from his teacher's job. In the new movie version due out soon, Griffiths gets successfully demoted.

Griffiths will campaign in the supporting-actor's race at the Oscars, not lead.

That's odd considering he recently won the Tony Award for best lead actor and, prior to that, the equivalent prize from the Drama Desk and — over in Britain where the production began — the Evening Standard, Critics' Circle and the Laurence Olivier Awards.

"The film comes across more as an ensemble drama," explains a rep. When I asked if Griffiths' role has been cut a bit from stage to screen, he said, "I really don't know."

Perhaps not, though. At the Outer Critics Circle Awards bestowed by journos in the metro New York area, Griffiths had been pushed down to the featured-actor race, which he won, while the lead category was claimed by Gabriel Byrne for a revival of Eugene O'Neill's "A Touch of the Poet." But that's the only theater award I know of that classified him below lead level.

Next week I can solve this mystery myself. That's when the film version begins screening to Yankee journalists after it makes its world premiere at a royal gala in London for Prince Charles.

Photo: "The school gives them an education," Richard Griffiths (left, with Samuel Barnett) says in "The History Boys." "I give them the wherewithal to resist it. Examine a boy and he is tamed already. Only examine him and you can tax him, empanel him, enlist him, interrogate him and put him in prison. You have only to grade him and you have got him." (Broadhurst Theater)

"'Little Children' takes you down lots of different dark alleyways and you really don't know what you're going to find at the end of it," Kate Winslet warns us about her new film, opening on Oct. 6. "And I love that about it. It's so real." (Listen to our full podcast chat — CLICK HERE!)

"Little Children" is also a real shockeroo because it's not kid's stuff. It's a brazenly bold love story about adulterers yearning for romantic escape from their shallow suburban marriages, interwoven with a subplot about a sex offender who is not portrayed as a poor, misunderstood outcast. He continues to do things his "mommy" would disapprove of while director Todd Field ("In the Bedroom") forces viewers — against their will and better judgment — to feel sorry for him.

"I was nervous to read this script because of this slightly sinister character," Kate admits. "But I was so amazed and overwhelmed by how brilliantly that role is constructed."

Kate's own character, Sarah, is also complicated and frequently unsympathetic. "She's kind of a lost, repressed woman who's very intelligent but doesn't quite know why she's married to the man she's married to. And finds herself the mother of a child she doesn't have a very strong connection with."

All of this leads to "a whopper of an ending" that "really does surprise you," she warns.

It could also lead to Kate's fifth Oscar nomination. Most Oscar gurus agree she's one of several frontrunners this year. Many Oscarologists also believe that "Little Children" is a strong rival for best picture, director (Field), supporting actor (Earle Haley as the sex offender) and screenplay.

Listen to our podcast chat with Kate about "Little Children" and her past Oscar nominations. Her favorite academy bid was her last one — for "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind." The reason: "I was so flabbergasted that I had that nomination because the movie had come out I think something like 10 months before the Academy Awards and I was just so struck by how much the performance and the film had stayed within people's radar."

When she got the nom, she called her mom. Listen to her recount that excited phone chat — CLICK HERE!

CLICK HERE TO HEAR OUR PODCAST CHAT WITH KATE'S COSTAR PATRICK WILSON!

Photo: Just like in "Titantic," "Eternal Sunshine" and "Sense and Sensibility," Kate's role in "Little Children" surrenders to a feeling of romantic abandon. "It's been inspiring for me to play several characters who have this as part of their human nature," she tells us. (New Line)

Step aside and make way for a real hot awards contender: Sienna Miller is coming on strong as a late-breaking Oscar rival — some gurus even dare to say frontrunner — in the best-actress derby.

Mad awards joy is erupting within Harvey Weinstein's trackside box as his execs and Oscar consultants cheer on a fast-trotting dark horse, "Factory Girl," featuring Sienna as Edie Sedgwick, the debutante party girl who Andy Warhol turned into a pop icon before she descended into lunacy and addiction hell, ultimately dying of a drug overdose in 1971. Harvey and team recently viewed a rough cut of "Factory Girl" and were wowed by what they saw, a nice surprise that arrived late in awards season thanks to production delays caused by hurricane Katrina.

Two of The Envelope's kudos gurus have put Sienna in their top five for best actress — Jeffrey Wells of Hollywood-Elsewhere.com and Peter Travers of Rolling Stone — two guys who know the Oscar beat well. Jeffrey's seen a rough cut, too, and reports, "she kills in it." Based on all of the gushing scuttlebutt I'm hearing, I sure plan to put her in my top 5 as well.

Last year Harvey Weinstein had the Oscar rival who gave the best performance — Felicity Huffman in "Transamerica" — but she lost to the Babe of the Year who gave a rather pedestrian, supporting turn in "Walk the Line." Reese Witherspoon nonetheless won, probably for her past, more-worthy work in "Election" and "Legally Blonde," and, of course, for looking so darn pretty, perky and youthful. Helen Mirren ("The Queen"), Annette Bening ("Running with Scissors"), Judi Dench ("Notes on a Scandal") and Meryl Streep ("The Devil Wears Prada") have good reason to start getting nervous right now about Sienna. Ditto for Penelope Cruz ("Volver"), the only rival babe in the race up to this point.

"Sienna is so amazing in the film that Harvey's planning a big, last-minute academy push," says an aide-de-camp of The Happy Oscar Warrior. "He'll release 'Factory Girl' at the end of December — we don't know the specific day yet — and he's convinced she can win. Sienna's the new 'It Girl' — she's stylish, gorgeous, British and she really did her homework to prepare for the role.

"This really puts Harvey in a terrible spot, though, because he's also planning to push hard for Renee Zellweger in 'Miss Potter,'" adds the source. "Harvey has a special thing for Renee. He adores her. They're very close." Renee has never won best actress — just that supporting trophy for "Cold Mountain," the poor thing — and inside sources say she's good enough, acting-wise, as Peter Rabbit novelist Beatrix Potter to win. In fact, they say this is the best perf of her career. But she's matronly in the movie. She certainly doesn't have The Babe Factor like "Factory's" star and that's what usually wins Oscars for actresses, of course.

Oh, yeah, one last thing: Guy Pearce is said to be aces as Andy Warhol in "Factory Girl," too — good enough for a best actor bid, if he gets lucky. But who needs luck when you've got Harvey on your team, eh? And everybody says Ewan McGregor is charming as Potter's publisher and doomed fiance Norman.

Photos of The Harvey Girls: Drab-looking Renee Zellweger (bottom right) has every good reason to be leery of babe-a-licious Sienna (top), but things could be worse. At least she wasn't forced to look too much like the real Miss Potter (bottom left). (Weinstein Co.)

Peter Travers of Rolling Stone is the next of our pundits to pipe in — and he tosses in a few real pipe bombs. Not only lobbing "The Departed" into the best pic mix, but — here's the kaboom! — Jack Nicholson into the lead actor lineup. Previously, it was widely believed that Jack's role should be considered supporting.

BEST PICTURE
"Dreamgirls"
"Flags of Our Fathers"
"Babel"
"The Departed"
"The Queen"

BEST ACTOR
Forest Whitaker, "Last King of Scotland"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Jack Nicholson, "The Departed"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"
Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"

BEST ACTRESS
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
Kate Winslet, "Little Children"
Sienna Miller, "Factory Girl"

So we asked Peter: Hey, yo! Whazzup? Explain please! He replied:

"I'm putting 'The Departed' into the best picture race because:

"1. It belongs there/Scorsese is expanding on his theme of how violence is ingrained into the American character. He's showing the cost of pretending otherwise and living a lie, which couldn't be more topical in Bushworld.

"2. Scorsese's talent is shining here on its highest beams. Academy voters may be turned off by the brutality, especially in the final act, but quality is quality. Hell, they recognized that in 'Raging Bull,' 'GoodFellas' and even 'The Last Temptation of Christ.'

"3. This is one time when a low-profile campaign — few advance screenings, no festivals — pays off. I think that critics and audiences — expecting the worst — will be taken by surprise at how terrific this baby is.

"As for Jack: To call Nicholson's Irish hood a supporting role is to be blind to what's going on here. He is the corrupt soul of the movie. Big Bad Jack leeches every ounce of charm from this scumbag. He's out there corrupting people, like the Matt Damon character, from childhood. It's a big performance but not a hammy one, definitely not business as usual for Jack. Channeling Cagney in 'White Heat' and Paul Muni in 'Scarface,' he's a depraved force of nature. Maybe you think star performances like Nicholson's grow on Hollywood palm trees. Even Oscar voters will have to see that they don't make them like this anymore.

"As for 'The Queen,' it has the humor and the humanity to move out of the art-house ghetto and get audiences feeling the thing, not just talking about it. Helen Mirren should have Oscar bowing low. She brings us with her queen all the way. There aren't many serious movies that are this much fun."

Go ahead and scoff at Peter's predix, if you dare! Peter's crystal ball is notoriously uncanny. Among his many amazing really early predix — I mean waaaaaay before anyone else saw it coming: that "Gladiator" was ahead for best pic at the Golden Globes and Oscars of 2000. Back then every other pundit on the planet claimed that "Traffic" was a shoo-in to zooooom ahead.

Photos: Jack Nicholson in "The Departed," Forest Whitaker in "The Last King of Scotland" and the majestic Mirren. (Warner Bros./ Fox Searchlight/ Miramax)

I can understand why Warner Bros. doesn't want to commit to saying "The Departed" is really in the derby. Every time a Marty Scorsese movie goes up for Oscar consideration, doom strikes. Now his strategists probably think: maybe it's time for a new approach and a little reverse psychology. Thus his latest film was released early, nowhere near his usual December rollout and all of us Oscar-watchers have been roughed up repeatedly by his kudos goons, who insist — imagine them talking like goodfellas here — "This is not an Oscar movie for Marty. Get it? It's pure entertainment, pal. That's all. Now keep on walking."

Right! Then please explain this ridiculous fact to me: Why have Oscar consultants been hired to handle this movie if it doesn't have an Oscar campaign?

But it does have a campaign, kind of. Although not really. It's just that no money's been allotted for a big "For Your Consideration" ad drive . . . yet.

So what's really going on? We asked Warner Bros. to squeal the truth and give it to us like a lead pipe on the noggin.

Here's what Debbie Miller, Warner Bros. executive VP of marketing, told us: "First and foremost, we view 'The Departed' as an event entertainment picture of the highest quality. While we are not overtly positioning the film for awards consideration, the two are not mutually exclusive.

"If people continue to respond to the story, acting and filmmaking as positively as they have thus far — and the film organically becomes a legitimate contender — we would be proud to support 'The Departed' with a full awards consideration campaign," she added. "With the film opening in early October, we have the luxury of time to allow the movie to speak for itself."

Obviously, Warner Bros. should put some money aside for what looks Oscar-inevitable — or at least Globes-inevitable. My sources within the Hollywood Foreign Press Association say that they love "The Departed," so clearly they intend to nominate it in some top categories.

Peter Travers of Rolling Stone believes it's destined for top Oscar matches, too — check out his early rankings above. He not only puts "The Departed" in his top five for best picture, but Jack Nicholson up for lead actor! Noted Oscar seer Pete Hammond of Maxim Magazine and HollywoodWiretap.com describes the film to us as "a masterwork, brilliant in every department. You could fill most of the male acting categories with this cast. They are that good. Scorsese at his best since at least "Goodfellas." But it is Scorsese, so who knows how the Oscar crowd will judge it? It's not full of a lot of social value, but, as pure filmmaking, it's just exhilarating."

But not everyone agrees that it's obvious Oscar material. Jeffrey Wells of Hollywood-Elsewhere.com tells us, "It's definitely Marty's best movie since 'Goodfellas.' It's brilliant. I loved every minute of it, but it doesn't have resonance, doesn't have the important social message that academy members expect."

Adds Edward Douglas of Comingsoon.net: "No question that the movie is very entertaining, though I think a lot of the overzealous critics and bloggers are forgetting that the Oscars are picked by the people who make movies and, despite the fact that this is a return to the 'Goodfellas'/'Casino' Scorsese, this also adds a certain been-there-done-that feel to the movie which I don't think Oscar feels needs to be rewarded. (As opposed to 'Gangs of New York' and 'Aviator,' both of which were hugely ambitious projects for Scorsese.) So I'll say it gets nominated for screenplay, supporting actor, and probably editing or other technical awards, but it will have a tough battle in any category since it's really not your typical Oscar movie in a year that looks to be full of them.

"Best Picture? Not happening," he adds. "Best Director? As much as I'd love to see Scorsese win one, it's not going to be for this (unless this becomes his Training Day) and the Academy might be smarting still from everyone who thought they should have given it to him for "Aviator.'"

Three of our Oscar gurus have piped in with their early rankings of the top three races: best pic, actor and actress. Jeffrey Wells of Hollywood-Elsewhere.com and "Oscar Beat" columnist Steve Pond of The Envelope cite Peter O'Toole ("Venus) as most likely to win the lead actor contest, while Lou Lumenick of the New York Post says it's really George Clooney ("The Good German").

Lumenick, Wells and Pond are three of the dozen pundits we've recruited to join our "Buzzmeter" team to track the derby from now till next Feb. 25. We'll unveil the names and predix of others in the next few days. Meantime, take a gander at the fascinating disparity in some of the out-on-a-thin-limb calls these guys make like S.B. Cohen ("Borat"), Ben Sliney ("United 93") and Sienna Miller ("Factory Girl"). By the way, Jeffrey gives us a sixth choice for best pic ("United 93") and actress (Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal").

If you're not familiar with our new Buzzmeter, see how it works for the Country Music Association Awards, representing the collective views of our whole pundit team (click on "Meet the Panel" to see who's making the CMA picks) — CLICK HERE!

Lou Lumenick, New York Post

BEST PICTURE
1. "Flags of Our Fathers" *
2. "Dreamgirls" *
3. "Babel"
4. "The Good German" *
5. "The Queen"

BEST ACTOR
1. George Clooney, "The Good German" *
2. S.B. Cohen, "Borat"
3. Forrest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
4. Edward Norton, "The Illusionist"
5. Ben Sliney, "United 93"

BEST ACTRESS
1. Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
2. Kate Winslet, "Little Children"
3. Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
4. Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
5. Anette Bening, "Running with Scissors"

* Not yet seen by me

**********

Jeffrey Wells, Hollywood-Elsewhere.com

BEST PICTURE
1. "Flags of Our Fathers"
2. "Babel"
3. "Dreamgirls"
4. "Volver"
5. "Little Miss Sunshine"

BEST ACTOR
1. Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"/ "The Departed"
3. Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
4. Derek Luke, "Catch a Fire"
5. Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"

BEST ACTRESS
1. Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
2. Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
3. Sienna Miller, "Factory Girl"
4. Kate Winslet, "Little Children"
5. Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"

**********

Steve Pond, Oscar Beat, The Envelope

BEST PICTURE
1. "Flags of Our Fathers"
2. "Babel"
3. "The Good German"
4. "Little Miss Sunshine"
5. "Volver"

BEST ACTOR
1. Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
2. Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
3. Derek Luke, "Catch a Fire"
4. Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"

BEST ACTRESS
1. Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
2. Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
3. Kate Winslet, "Little Children"
4. Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
5. Annette Bening "Running with Scissors"

Since certain wars and weather are old news, albeit still news, Iraq and hurricanes didn't dominate the News and Documentary Emmys like they have in the recent past. Big winners turned out to be PBS and CBS with five awards each. Four of CBS' were for "60 Minutes," which was hailed for its coverage of the CIA and tsunami survivors in Southeast Asia.

CNN's "Anderson Cooper 360" reaped the prize for its feature coverage of a charity hospital in New Orleans. The network's victory suffers from the fact that it doesn't compete against its TV rivals. Fox News Channel and MSNBC do not compete at the news Emmys. Fox believes the awards are biased against them. MSNBC doesn't give a reason for its distance, but it's believed that the cost of entering segments for competition is a factor.

Late ABC newsman Peter Jennings received two posthumous prizes. The Lifetime Achievement Award was bestowed to Bill Moyers.

Here's a complete list of winners unveiled last night at the Marriott Marquis Hotel in New York City:

Coverage of a Breaking News Story, Regular Newscast: NBC Nightly News, "Hurricane Katrina: Moment of Crisis"
Coverage of a Continuing News Story, Regular Newscast: ABC, World News Tonight, "Iraq: Where Things Stand"
Feature Story, Regular Newscast: CNN, Anderson Cooper 360, "Charity Hospital"
Investigative Journalism, Regular Newscast: ABC, World News Tonight, "Money Trail"

Shakira got the five top noms she was expected to nab, but there were some surprises among the other bids for Latin Grammy Awards announced today. Fonseca got nommed for record of the year, but not best new artist, while newcomer nominee Calle 13 failed to score bids for best record, song or album, thus disappointing young hip-hoppers.

Only two tunes up for record of the year (which goes to the recording artist) were also nommed for song of the year (hailing the songwriters). That happens all of the time at the other Grammys, too, as illogical as it seems.

One of our forum posters, Benito Delicias, is outraged over "Mas Que Nada" making the cut for best record, noting, "It's like 80 percent English!"

Read more forum reax — CLICK HERE!

Read the full news report — CLICK HERE!

Now celebrating their seventh year, the Latin Grammys will be held in New York City for the first time ever. Univision will telecast the ceremony live on Nov. 2 from Madison Square Garden. Tickets are available to the public — CLICK HERE or HERE!. Or telephone (212) 307-7171

Photo: Shakira's album of the year nominee "Fijacion Oral" won best Latin rock/alternative album at the Grammys in February. (Sony)

Ben Affleck insists he was flabbergasted by his best-actor victory at the Venice Film Festival. When he hooked up with us in Manhattan the other day for a video chat, he revealed how the awards drama played out. (To see the full video — CLICK HERE!)

Ben attended the fest for "Hollywoodland's" premiere and was pleased with the seven-minute vertical response it reaped from the audience, but "I didn't know how to gauge the standing ovation against other movies' recognition," he says. "I knew they liked it, but I didn't know to what extent."

So he did what most actors do when the show's over: "I went home. I had no idea. Nobody said, 'Hey, you should consider this.' I'm not in the habit of being one of those actors who gives a wink and says, 'We're just going to stick around till the end of the festival . . .'" in case something happens.

When the award news broke, "I was in L.A.," he says. "They just called me up and said, 'You've got to say something. You've got to give me a quote.' It was 5 in the morning."

When actors win awards, "they always say, 'I was truly surprised,'" Ben notes. "I was shocked!"

Most kudos-watchers were stunned, too, especially since Ben's character — TV Superman George Reeves, whose mysterious death remains a classic Hollywood cliffhanger — has less screen time than Adrien Brody's. Shouldn't that mean Ben's role is supporting? I asked him why the Venice jury might have promoted him to lead. He didn't know, but said maybe it was "because Adrien is playing a fictional character, a detective (who) tends to be a device, so he's working against exposition and plot." By contrast, "George is a real guy," he notes, "a real tragic figure you can identify with."

Focus Features plans to keep Ben in the supporting race for Oscars, but he has no problem with that. In fact, he confesses that those kinds of "machinations about how this stuff works" are a mystery to him.

But I chide him — Oh, come on! — You not only won an Oscar for writing "Good Will Hunting," but you starred in best picture winner "Shakespeare in Love"! You know how the Oscar game is played!

But Ben tries to convince us that he's really a blushing innocent about all that. Do we believe him? Or is he really that good of an actor? You decide — CLICK HERE to watch the video!

Photo: Even though Affleck had already won an Oscar by 1998, he tells us, "Nobody was saying, 'Ben, we're thinking of going for best picture with 'Shakespeare in Love.' What's your take on it?"
(L.A. Times video by Nick Burghelea)

Oscar, that King of Hollywood, sure loves queens and not just his past nominees like Queen Latifah ("Chicago") or Steve McQueen ("The Sand Pebbles") or all those lavender lads in the acting branch (OK, OK, I couldn't resist), but female stars who've played royal roles.

Because Helen Mirren ("The Queen") looks like such a formidable rival for best actress as Britain's Elizabeth II, I thought it'd be interesting to take a look back to see what other reigning perfs got noted. One of them was even another majestic turn by Mirren.

Here's my list below. Did I miss any?

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth" (Elizabeth I)
Genevieve Bujold, "Anne of the Thousand Days" (Anne Boleyn)
Judi Dench, "Mrs. Brown" (Victoria)
* Katharine Hepburn, "The Lion in Winter" (Eleanor of Aquitaine)
Vanessa Redgrave, "Mary Queen of Scots" (Mary Stuart)
Norma Shearer, "Marie Antoinette" (Marie Antoinette)
Janet Suzman, "Nicholas & Alexandra" (Czarina Alexandra)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
* Judi Dench, "Shakespeare in Love" (Elizabeth I)
Jocelyne LaGarde, "Hawaii" (Malame)
Helen Mirren, "The Madness of King George" (Charlotte)

* = winner

Photos (clockwise from upper left): Helen Mirren as Elizabeth II in "The Queen"; Mirren as Charlotte, wife of George III in "The Madness of King George"; Katharine Hepburn as Eleanor, wife of Henry II in "The Lion in Winter"; Judi Dench as Elizabeth I in "Shakespeare in Love."
(Miramax/ Samuel Goldwyn/ AVCO Embassy/ Miramax)

Cate Blanchett and Meryl Streep may be nominated for lead and supporting roles at the upcoming Oscars: Cate for "The Good German" (lead) and "Notes on a Scandal" or "Babel" (supporting); Meryl for "The Devil Wears Prada" (lead) and "Prairie Home Companion" (supporting).

Ten stars have pulled off dual noms in the past, including (winning role is marked in bold itals) Fay Bainter ("White Banners," "Jezebel"), Barry Fitzgerald (nommed in both races for "Going My Way"), Theresa Wright ("Pride of the Yankees," "Mrs. Miniver"), Jessica Lange ("Frances," "Toosie") and Sigourney Weaver ("Gorillas in the Mist," "Working Girl").

Name the other five and their films. All occurred since 1992. Pipe in by clicking on the "COMMENTS" button below.

Photo: After Barry Fitzgerald was nominated in both the lead and supporting categories for his role as grumpy Father Fitzgibbon in "Going My Way" (he won in supporting, costar Bing Crosby won in lead), the academy no longer permitted one role to be nommed in both races. Academy members can vote for the star in both categories, but he or she can only be nominated for the bid with the most votes. An actor cannot be nommed for two roles in the same category. (Paramount