Best actor race: O'Toole leads Clooney 2 to 1
Three of our Oscar gurus have piped in with their early rankings of the top three races: best pic, actor and actress. Jeffrey Wells of Hollywood-Elsewhere.com and "Oscar Beat" columnist Steve Pond of The Envelope cite Peter O'Toole ("Venus) as most likely to win the lead actor contest, while Lou Lumenick of the New York Post says it's really George Clooney ("The Good German").
Lumenick, Wells and Pond are three of the dozen pundits we've recruited to join our "Buzzmeter" team to track the derby from now till next Feb. 25. We'll unveil the names and predix of others in the next few days. Meantime, take a gander at the fascinating disparity in some of the out-on-a-thin-limb calls these guys make like S.B. Cohen ("Borat"), Ben Sliney ("United 93") and Sienna Miller ("Factory Girl"). By the way, Jeffrey gives us a sixth choice for best pic ("United 93") and actress (Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal").
If you're not familiar with our new Buzzmeter, see how it works for the Country Music Association Awards, representing the collective views of our whole pundit team (click on "Meet the Panel" to see who's making the CMA picks) — CLICK HERE!
Lou Lumenick, New York Post
BEST PICTURE
1. "Flags of Our Fathers" *
2. "Dreamgirls" *
3. "Babel"
4. "The Good German" *
5. "The Queen"
BEST ACTOR
1. George Clooney, "The Good German" *
2. S.B. Cohen, "Borat"
3. Forrest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
4. Edward Norton, "The Illusionist"
5. Ben Sliney, "United 93"
BEST ACTRESS
1. Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
2. Kate Winslet, "Little Children"
3. Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
4. Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
5. Anette Bening, "Running with Scissors"
* Not yet seen by me
**********
Jeffrey Wells, Hollywood-Elsewhere.com
BEST PICTURE
1. "Flags of Our Fathers"
2. "Babel"
3. "Dreamgirls"
4. "Volver"
5. "Little Miss Sunshine"
BEST ACTOR
1. Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"/ "The Departed"
3. Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
4. Derek Luke, "Catch a Fire"
5. Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
BEST ACTRESS
1. Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
2. Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
3. Sienna Miller, "Factory Girl"
4. Kate Winslet, "Little Children"
5. Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
**********
Steve Pond, Oscar Beat, The Envelope
BEST PICTURE
1. "Flags of Our Fathers"
2. "Babel"
3. "The Good German"
4. "Little Miss Sunshine"
5. "Volver"
BEST ACTOR
1. Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
2. Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
3. Derek Luke, "Catch a Fire"
4. Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"
BEST ACTRESS
1. Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
2. Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
3. Kate Winslet, "Little Children"
4. Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
5. Annette Bening "Running with Scissors"
Am I the only one who wonders about the significance (if it plays out, which it probably won't) of 3 African-Americans in the Best Actor race? We've had 2 in a race a few times, but for the academy to say that out of the 5 best acting performances that year majority were by Black actors would definitely a step in a positive direction.
Posted by: jon p | October 02, 2006 at 05:16 PM
What makes me a little miffed about your snubbing of Dreamgirls is the fact that you forgot that Bill Condon put Chicago up on the Oscar Pedestal. The thing about Dreamgirls is it has a recognizable story, great music, and from what I've heard killer performances. Maybe give it a ray of hope?
The Queen seems like a good movie, but to propel itself to Best Picture? And will the Academy like the fact of giving Helen Mirren awards for portraying a monarch whose ancester she already previously played? I think Helen will have a great chance.
Also, Meryl Streep is a Supporting Actress Contender. To try and put her in Best Actress will lead to no avail.
Posted by: Seth Federman | September 28, 2006 at 09:36 AM
RYAN GOSLING should be nominated as well as Little Miss Sunshine.
Posted by: jake | September 27, 2006 at 09:16 PM
The comment about not including Dreamgirls must be aimed at me, so here goes:
Yes, I know that people who've seen the 20 minutes have been impressed. And I admire Bill Condon's work, particularly "Gods and Monsters." And I enjoyed the musical when I saw it way back when in the early '80s. And I'm sure it'll clean up at the Golden Globes.
But I'm not convinced yet that it's the slam dunk everybody else seems to think it is. I think it's very hard to make a full-fledged musical work for an audience these days, and even harder for a musical to gain the respect of academy voters. "Chicago" was obviously a big exception; maybe "Dreamgirls" will be as well. But I'm going to have to see the movie before I jump on this particular bandwagon.
This is just me being stubborn. I know I'm wildly outnumbered here, and I know that if the film is as good as people seem to think, I'll look dumb in a month or two. But Oscar predictions have a way of making everybody look dumb sooner or later, so I'm okay with that. If I see it and it's great (or Oscar-friendly), I'll put it on my list. Until then, I'm telling you I'm not going there.
Posted by: Steve Pond | September 26, 2006 at 11:23 PM
How could you not include Dreamgirls in you list of Best Pics?
Posted by: sam coffey | September 26, 2006 at 06:29 PM