Our fearless gurus predict the CMA Awards!
The Envelope has rounded up the shrewdest gurus to predict who'll win the Country Music Association Awards to be bestowed on ABC on Nov. 6. Combined, their views feed into our new "Buzzmeter," which will appear on this site's home page in the next day or so. Remember to check it often to see the fluctuation of arrows up and down in top races as each contender's momentum shifts whenever a pundit changes his mind. I'm probably going to change my mind in a few races over the next few days while I ponder the upset potential of "Jesus Take the Wheel," which pulled off some jawdroppers at the Academy of Country Music Awards back in May.
Our esteemed panel: Peter Cooper, music editor of Nashville newspaper The Tennessean; Bill Gubbins, editor-in-chief of Country Weekly; Tommy "Cleveland" Thompson, reviewer for MusicCityNews.com; Chris Willman, senior writer for Entertainment Weekly; and me.
Each of us breaks down every top race by ranking our choices. Notice where we agree and disagree. All of us, for example, predict Kenny Chesney will win entertainer of the year. Here's my reasoning — and probably my colleagues', too. This category is usually about who made the most money as a concert-touring act. Since Tim McGraw and Faith Hill aren't nommed here, the correct answer is Kenny, who racked up tix sales of $62 million last year, setting a new record for a solo act.
ENTERTAINER OF THE YEAR
Peter Cooper, music editor, The Tennessean
1. Kenny Chesney
2. Keith Urban
3. Rascal Flatts
4. Brooks & Dunn
5. Brad Paisley
Bill Gubbins, editor-in-chief, Country Weekly
1. Kenny Chesney
2. Keith Urban
3. Brad Paisley
4. Rascal Flatts
5. Brooks & Dunn
Tom O'Neil, Gold Derby, TheEnvelope.com
1. Kenny Chesney
3. Brad Paisley
2. Keith Urban
4. Rascal Flatts
5. Brooks & Dunn
Tommy "Cleveland" Thompson, MusicCityNews.com
1. Kenny Chesney
2. Keith Urban
3. Brad Paisley
4. Rascal Flatts
5. Brooks & Dunn
Chris Willman, Entertainment Weekly
1. Kenny Chesney
2. Brad Paisley
3. Keith Urban
4. Rascal Flatts
5. Brooks & Dunn
************
FEMALE VOCALIST OF THE YEAR
Peter Cooper, music editor, The Tennessean
1. Martina McBride
2. Carrie Underwood
3. Faith Hill
4. Gretchen Wilson
5. Sara Evans
Bill Gubbins, editor, Country Weekly
1. Carrie Underwood
2. Sara Evans
3. Martina McBride
4. Faith Hill
5. Gretchen Wilson
Tom O'Neil, Gold Derby, TheEnvelope.com
1. Carrie Underwood
2. Sara Evans
3. Gretchen Wilson
4. Martina McBride
5. Faith Hill
Tommy "Cleveland" Thompson, reviewer, MusicCityNews.com
1. Sara Evans
2. Gretchen Wilson
3. Carrie Underwood
4. Martina McBride
5. Faith Hill
Chris Willman, senior writer, Entertainment Weekly
1. Sara Evans
2. Martina McBride
3. Faith Hill
4. Carrie Underwood
5. Gretchen Wilson
CLICK HERE to See More Gutsy CMA Predix!
Photo: Three of our five pundits predict Brad Paisley will win best album at the CMAs for the first time ever. Over the past 6 years, Paisley has won 5 CMAs, but none in a top category.
(Arista)
MALE VOCALIST OF THE YEAR
Peter Cooper, music editor, The Tennessean
1. Keith Urban
2. Kenny Chesney
3. Brad Paisley
4. Alan Jackson
5. Dierks Bentley
Bill Gubbins, editor, Country Weekly
1. Keith Urban
2. Kenny Chesney
3. Alan Jackson
4. Brad Paisley
5. Dierks Bentley
Tom O'Neil, Gold Derby, TheEnvelope.com
1. Brad Paisley
2. Keith Urban
3. Kenny Chesney
4. Alan Jackson
5. Dierks Bentley
Tommy "Cleveland" Thompson, reviewer, MusicCityNews.com
1. Keith Urban
2. Kenny Chesney
3. Brad Paisley
4. Dierks Bentley
5. Alan Jackson
Chris Willman, senior writer, Entertainment Weekly
1. Brad Paisley
2. Keith Urban
3. Kenny Chesney
4. Alan Jackson
5. Dierks Bentley
************
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Peter Cooper, music editor, The Tennessean
1. "Me And My Gang" Rascal Flatts
2. "The Road And The Radio" Kenny Chesney
3. "Time Well Wasted" Brad Paisley
4. "Precious Memories" Alan Jackson
5. "Hillbilly Deluxe" Brooks & Dunn
Bill Gubbins, editor-in-chief, Country Weekly
1. "The Road And The Radio" Kenny Chesney
2. "Me And My Gang" Rascal Flatts
3. "Hillbilly Deluxe" Brooks & Dunn
4. "Time Well Wasted" Brad Paisley
5. "Precious Memories" Alan Jackson
Tom O'Neil, Gold Derby, TheEnvelope.com
1. "When I Get Where I'm Going" Brad Paisley (Featuring Dolly Parton)
2. "Jesus Take The Wheel" Carrie Underwood
3. "Believe" Brooks & Dunn
4. "8th of November" Big & Rich
5. "Kerosene" Miranda Lambert
Tommy "Cleveland" Thompson, MusicCityNews.com
1. "Time Well Wasted" Brad Paisley
2. "The Road And The Radio" Kenny Chesney
3. "Me And My Gang" Rascal Flatts
4. "Precious Memories" Alan Jackson
5. "Hillbilly Deluxe" Brooks & Dunn
Chris Willman, Entertainment Weekly
1. "Time Well Wasted" Brad Paisley
2. "Hillbilly Deluxe" Brooks & Dunn
3. "Me And My Gang" Rascal Flatts
4. "The Road And The Radio" Kenny Chesney
5. "Precious Memories" Alan Jackson
************
SINGLE OF THE YEAR
Peter Cooper, music editor, The Tennessean
1. "Better Life" Keith Urban
2. "Jesus Take The Wheel" Carrie Underwood
3. "Believe" Brooks & Dunn
4. "When I Get Where I'm Going" Brad Paisley (Featuring Dolly Parton)
5. "Summertime" Kenny Chesney
Bill Gubbins, editor-in-chief, Country Weekly
1. "Believe" Brooks & Dunn
2. "Jesus Take The Wheel" Carrie Underwood
3. "When I Get Where I'm Going" Brad Paisley (Featuring Dolly Parton)
4. "Better Life" Keith Urban
5. "Summertime" Kenny Chesney
Tom O'Neil, Gold Derby, TheEnvelope.com
1. "Believe" Brooks & Dunn
2. "Jesus Take The Wheel" Carrie Underwood
3. "When I Get Where I'm Going" Brad Paisley (Featuring Dolly Parton)
4. "Better Life" Keith Urban
5. "Summertime" Kenny Chesney
Tommy "Cleveland" Thompson, MusicCityNews.com
1. "Believe" Brooks & Dunn
2. "Summertime" Kenny Chesney
3. "When I Get Where I'm Going" Brad Paisley (Featuring Dolly Parton)
4. "Jesus Take The Wheel" Carrie Underwood
5. "Better Life" Keith Urban
Chris Willman, Entertainment Weekly
1. "Believe" Brooks & Dunn
2. "When I Get Where I'm Going" Brad Paisley (Featuring Dolly Parton)
3. "Jesus Take The Wheel" Carrie Underwood
4. "Better Life" Keith Urban
5. "Summertime" Kenny Chesney
************
MUSIC VIDEO OF THE YEAR
Peter Cooper, music editor, The Tennessean
1. "When I Get Where I'm Going" Brad Paisley (Featuring Dolly Parton)
2. "Jesus Take The Wheel" Carrie Underwood
3. "8th of November" Big & Rich
4. "Believe" Brooks & Dunn
5. "Kerosene Miranda Lambert
Bill Gubbins, editor-in-chief, Country Weekly
1. "Believe" Brooks & Dunn
2. "Jesus Take The Wheel" Carrie Underwood
3. "When I Get Where I'm Going" Brad Paisley (Featuring Dolly Parton)
4. "8th of November" Big & Rich
5. "Kerosene Miranda Lambert
Tom O'Neil, Gold Derby, TheEnvelope.com
1. "When I Get Where I'm Going" Brad Paisley (Featuring Dolly Parton)
2. "Jesus Take The Wheel" Carrie Underwood
3. "8th of November" Big & Rich
4. "Believe" Brooks & Dunn
5. "Kerosene" Miranda Lambert
Tommy "Cleveland" Thompson, MusicCityNews.com
1. "8th of November" Big & Rich
2. "Believe" Brooks & Dunn
3. "Jesus Take The Wheel" Carrie Underwood
4. "When I Get Where I'm Going" Brad Paisley (Featuring Dolly Parton)
5. "Kerosene Miranda Lambert
Chris Willman, Entertainment Weekly
1. "When I Get Where I'm Going" Brad Paisley (Featuring Dolly Parton)
2. "Believe" Brooks & Dunn
3. "Jesus Take The Wheel" Carrie Underwood
4. "8th of November" Big & Rich
5. "Kerosene" Miranda Lambert
************
VOCAL GROUP OF THE YEAR
Peter Cooper, music editor, The Tennessean
1. Rascal Flatts
2. Sugarland
3. Allison Krauss + Union Station featuring Jerry Douglas
4. Little Big Town
5. Lonestar
Bill Gubbins, editor-in-chief, Country Weekly
1. Rascal Flatts
2. Sugarland
3. Allison Krauss + Union Station featuring Jerry Douglas
4. Little Big Town
5. Lonestar
Tom O'Neil, Gold Derby, TheEnvelope.com
1. Rascal Flatts
2. Sugarland
3. Little Big Town
4. Allison Krauss + Union Station featuring Jerry Douglas
5. Lonestar
Tommy "Cleveland" Thompson, MusicCityNews.com
1. Rascal Flatts
2. Allison Krauss + Union Station featuring Jerry Douglas
3. Lonestar
4. Little Big Town
5. Sugarland
Chris Willman, Entertainment Weekly
1. Rascal Flatts
2. Sugarland
3. Little Big Town
4. Allison Krauss + Union Station featuring Jerry Douglas
5. Lonestar
I agree with Ernesto on the Gretchen comment. There is no way she will win this time around! Althought the comment about Martina McBride deserving her award only 1 time is absolutely preposterous. She is the Greatest Female Country vocalist living today! That's no exaggeration.
Posted by: altorRDS | September 20, 2006 at 09:51 AM
TOM O'NEIL !!!!!!!
What is wrong here?? How can you predict Gretchen Wilson to win female????? That award is going to either Sara Evans or Carrie Underwood I promise you.I am as sure as I have a thought that Gretchen has no chance in hell to win this year she doesn't have the numbers or the airplay to even back up her nomination.
I think that the fact that Kenny Chesney who can't sing to save his life or stay married to a woman (LOL!!!!!!sorry)is considered the likely winner is disturbing but then again these are the CMAs so you are smart by putting him there...but if Keith Urban wins it again I will be the first to stand up to applaude.
Any positive prediction you have for Paisley is smart, after 33 nominations and only 5 wins for categories like VIDEO of the YEAR, this time around he actually has the buzz and has two number one singles behind him so I am sure he will win ALBUM, VIDEO(again) and if God is fair Male Vocalist.Last year they nominated him for six and went home empty handed...again these are the CMAS where Martina McBride has won the Female Vocalist of the year 4 times with only once really deserving it...I am sure Shania Twain is angry about this situation somewhere in Switzerland.
Posted by: Ernesto Alonzo | September 19, 2006 at 08:29 PM