Jack Mathews is one of our most esteemed Oscarologists. He's knowledgeable because he's covered the film beat prominently as current critic for the New York Daily News and past critic for the Los Angeles Times, paying special attention to subtle award trends. I love hearing his tip-offs about how to predict the Golden Globes, for example: he warns you to pay special attention to big current films packed with stars because those are the ones members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association are writing about in their newspapers back in Stockholm and Capetown. Or he'll point to how the awards bestowed by the National Board of Review tend to get spread around among many studios so that everyone gets to take home something from the presentation ceremony. In other words, you learn things about awards from Jack that only become obvious when cited by a seasoned, attentive pro.

Tonight we hung out at the screening of "Stranger Than Fiction," which he liked, calling it "fun" and "a nice change of pace for Will Farrell." He added, "Some people say they're getting sick of seeing Maggie Gyllenhaal everywhere, but not me. In this film she's as delectable as lemon chiffon cookies," which play a role in the storyline. "If this is a hit at the box office, it could be a serious Golden Globes contender on the comedy/musical side," he warned.

I asked him for other award observations about this year's films now that he's getting a good sense of the derby at Toronto. Here's what he said:

"Babel" — "I think 'Babel' is one of the 5 nominees for best picture. '21 Grams' was received very well by the academy and now the director Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu has built on that and the academy is sure to pay attention to 'Babel' because it's got such recognizable big stars like Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett. They both have a shot at supporting nominations as well as the Mexican actress who plays the nanny, Adrianna Barraza."

"Volver" and "Pan's Labyrinth" — "We've had many foreign-language films up for best picture in the past, but I actually see the possibility of two making it this year — 'Volver' and 'Pan's Labyrinth.' They're the two best films I've seen so far. 'Volver' will mark Pedro Almodovar's crossover to commercial success in a big way because it features Penelope Cruz, the breakout star of the year, who's actively promoting their film. 'Pan's Labyrinth' is stirring and powerful and it's brave filmmaking. It's a movie about a child trying to escape fascism that's so jarring you would never recommend it to a child."

Top photos: In order to see popular films like "Stranger Than Fiction," people get in line as much as an hour before the start time of the press screenings at the fest, many of them squatting on the floor to take it easy while they wait. Bottom photo: In "Stranger," Will Farrell portrays an IRS auditor whose life is being dictated by an unseen novelist (Emma Thompson) who recites her book's narration in his head as she types it, infuriating him.
(Sony / L.A. Times photo by Tom O'Neil)