Has 'Flags' dropped out of the best picture race?

Many Oscar pundits are declaring that "Flags of Our Fathers" is doomed in the best picture race because of its disappointing performance at the box office. Last weekend Edward Douglas of ComingSoon.net predicted it would earn $16 million. Gitesh Pandya of BoxOfficeGuru.com forecast $13 million. Alas, it pulled in only slightly more than $10 million.

But, wait — that's not bad! "Flags" unfurled nationally in less than 2,000 theaters, earning a respectable $5,400 per screen. That's pretty good for a movie about a downer old subject (World War II) with no superstars in it.

However, Edward drops a bomb on its Oscar hopes, declaring, "'Flags' is out. I just think there are way too many stronger movies out and on the way."

Gitesh disagrees and believes that it's still in the running: "I think Clint Eastwood is academy royalty and the box office performance will mean little. Oscar members will judge it based on its merits."

Actually, Gitesh doesn't find "Flags'" initial box office performance alarming: "Movies like 'Flags' typically have pretty good legs since older adults do not rush out on opening weekend like 'The Grudge' crowd does. So it could do 5 or 6 times its opening weekend gross. Exit polls are pretty good."

However, even if "Flags" does make six times its opening gross, the studio's ultimate net return will be less than half of the movie's production cost. There's no way international ticket sales can make up the difference.

Edward believes it will fail financially: "I don't think it will make back its $90 million budget. Theaters are going to start dropping it like a hot potato in November with things like 'Casino Royale' and 'Happy Feet' offering guaranteed business. It will be hard for DreamWorks to get it back into theaters after that."

As a result, he adds, "I don't think it will be a big player in the Oscars (maybe for cinematography, sound design, production design, etc)."

But that's an important issue — the trans-academy support a movie has across the crafts categories can lift it up to the best picture category even if it's considered a disappointment like "Gangs of New York." This year there aren't that many movies that will have wide academy reach, but "Flags" is one of them. Therefore, I think Gitesh is right: don't count it out yet.

Photo: Did you notice that the L.A. Times' usage of the famous Iwo Jima photo on page one during WWII was featured in "Flags of Our Fathers"? As of Wednesday, the movie had earned $12.8 million domestically. ComingSoon.net predicts it will earn only $7 million this weekend when it expands to 2,190 theaters nationally.
(DreamWorks)