I asked two experts to tell us how the Oscar derby may be affected by recent box-office numbers: Edward Douglas, "Weekend Warrior" columnist at Comingsoon.net, and Gitesh Pandya, editor of BoxOfficeGuru.com. Here's how they see it.
"The Departed" — Edward says the film is "a guaranteed best-picture candidate, having made $117 million" and because "more people have seen it than 'The Aviator' even before any awards considerations."
"Little Miss Sunshine" — Edward adds: "The same (see above) can be said for 'Little Miss Sunshine,' which has made nearly $60 million after being bought for roughly $10 million at the Sundance Film Festival. These are both success stories that have the critics and general populace behind them and they just have to make sure they stay fresh in voters' minds."

"Bobby" & "For Your Consideration" & "The Fountain" — Gitesh: "'Bobby,' 'Running with Scissors,' and 'For Your Consideration' all started off with terrific results in limited play. But they all went national on the second weekend and found it tougher to compete with the 'Borats' and Bonds of this world. 'Bobby,' though, still looks to be a major player at the SAG Awards since the film employed half of Hollywood."
Edward: "'Bobby's' $6.1 million in 1,667 theatres after a one-week NY/LA exclusive isn't great, except that's in a busy market with lots of stronger movies and it's mainly catering towards older audiences. Word-of-mouth and early awards could certainly build upon that and allow for future expansions, but it'll have to at least get a Golden Globe nomination if it wants to make it past December though. Of course, Christopher Guest's 'For Your Consideration,' which makes fun of the Oscar race, expanded on Weds into 623 theatres and made around $3 million in the last five days, which also isn't great or terrible compared to 'A Mighty Wind.' I don't think there's a chance of this being taken seriously as a Best Picture contender, but the more people who see it, the better chance of it being remembered in the next month or so for other awards."
Edward notes that "The Fountain" didn't make as much as as "Bobby" ($6 million) "in its first five days, though it was in 200 fewer theaters $5.4 million is already more than 'Requiem for a Dream' made in total. It probably should have been opened limited and then expanded later as well, since it would have looked better. Both movies are fairly divisive with audiences that love/hate them and they're going to be depending on word-of-mouth if they want to do any long-term business a la 'The Illusionist.' ('The Fountain' is more likely to have people intrigued enough to see it again or tell their friends to check it out, though 'Bobby' seems like the kind of subject that could find an audience slowly.)
Gitesh: "'Catch a Fire' and 'The Fountain' were both dead on arrival at the box office and have Oscar chances equal to those of 'Tenacious D.'"
"The History Boys" — Edward: "'the History Boys' has made about $142 thousand in the last six days, which is about $20k per theater, which isn't that bad in such a busy market. We'll have to see if Fox Searchlight feels that's strong enough to expand it much or otherwise, it'll be relying on awards nominations to survive."
Gitesh: "'History Boys' just opened, but it's off to a solid start.

"The Queen" Edward: "'The Queen' keeps doing well as it creeped into over 650 theaters this weekend and has made $21 million even before December awards are announced, with negligible drop-off from week to week (remaining in the Top 12) which tells me that people are telling their friends to go see it. Not bad for such an Anglocentric film with little star power about a relationship few Americans know much about. (Compare it to Stephen Frears' last movie 'Mrs. Henderson Presents,' which got Judi Dench an Oscar nomination but only ended up around with $11 million.)"
Gitesh: "Among the long line of Oscar hopefuls desperately seeking attention, the one true standout at the limited-release box office has been The Queen. Many films open with strength in New York and Los Angeles, but then fizzle out when trying to appeal to a national audience. Miramax has been slow and steady with Queen which has been in the Top 20 for six consecutive weeks and just crossed the $20M mark over Thanksgiving weekend while still in less than 700 theaters. By doing so well at the box office all fall season, I think it has turned itself into the front-runner in the Best Actress category as well as a major force to be reckoned with in several other categories.
"Babel" — Edward: "Alejandro Inarritu's 'Babel' may have peaked too early as it opened wide a few weeks back and was already back down to 900 this weekend. It's made $15 million so far, close to what '21 Grams' did in total. Chances are that if it gets any nominations, Paramount Vantage might be able to re-expand it, but the fact that it can't hold theaters with so many other movies being released means there isn't that much interest among the general populace and probably won't be seen as a box-office success. (It was #14 this weekend, just behind 'For Your Consideration.')
Gitesh: "'Babel' was red hot at the box office at first and has been holding up moderately well in national release. Luckily, it has Brad Pitt in it which automatically raises its profile."
"Flags of Our Fathers" — Edward: "I thought it was dead after that disappointing first weekend, but it's made less than $35 million after a month and it's hemorrhaging theaters on a weekly basis. (It was showing in less than 400 theatres as of this past weekend and will be gone by the time Academy voters start thinking about their nominations.) Considering the movie cost $90 million, that's about as bad a bomb as you get. Fewer people saw it than 'The Prestige' and people aren't talking about it a mere month after release and with no word-of-mouth interest, it's pretty much dead. (I feel bad for Ridley Scott's 'A Good Year,' which didn't even get that far and lost 75 percent of its theaters after just two weeks. I predict the movie will find a much bigger audience on DVD of people who'll find that it's not nearly as bad as critics made it sound.)
Gitesh: "'Flags of our Fathers' has underperformed at the box office. It had some Oscar buzz circulating a month ago, but now it feels that its light has faded."
"Volver" — Gitesh: "'Volver; has quietly been posting solid box office numbers all month long in November despite its limited release. It's holding up very well and taking its time expanding to new cities. With 'Volver' doing well with both critics and arthouse audiences, Penelope Cruz is showing the world that she doesn't need a fancy wedding in Rome to attract attention to herself."
"Marie Antoinette" & "Stranger Than Fiction" — Gitesh: These films "have been hoping to use starpower to attract kudos buzz. Neither film has had too big of an impact at the box office. They may not be remembered too well when ballots are being submitted."