'Hey, pssssst — What's the fifth best-pic nominee?'

It's very amusing to hear this question echo so commonly among top Oscarlogists, who should know better: "Hey, whatcha think is the fifth best-picture nominee?"

The assumption is that the following four are slam-dunk, shoo-in, definite nominees: "Dreamgirls," "The Departed," "The Queen" and "Little Miss Sunshine."

The fifth slot is expected to be filled by one of these: "Babel," "Flags of Our Fathers," "Letters from Iwo Jima," "The Pursuit of Happyness," "Volver" or "Little Children." But also in the running: "World Trade Center," "United 93," "Bobby," "The Good German," "The Good Shepherd" " and "The Painted Veil."

What's so ridiculous about this pronouncement is that, just four weeks ago, top Oscarologists were all asking, "Hey, whatcha think are those last two best-pic nominees?" Three pix were presumed to be locks: "Babel," "Flags of Our Fathers" and "Dreamgirls." Now only "Dreamgirls" is left among the "shoo-ins." "Babel" and "Flags" are still serious contenders, but no longer "definites." Right now there are still almost two months to go before the announcement of nominees, which are almost always filled with surprises.

How soon those gurus have forgotten a November just a few years ago when no one saw that dark horse "Moulin Rouge!" dashing into the derby, still maintaining a steady trot from its impressive run the previous summer when it earned $56 million. As of the eleventh month of that year, Hollywood film snobs had dismissed it as featherweight fluff, certainly no threat to the lofty, snooty Academy Awards. But, yeowsa, suddenly Nicole Kidman & Co. came out can-can kicking onto the derby track when the National Board of Review named it best pic in early December. "Moulin Rouge!" gathered substantial steam in subsequent weeks, earning the second-most Oscar noms and it darned near won best pic when "A Beautiful Mind" came under attack for sugar-coating the life of its main real-life character.

In more recent years, "Ray" and "Seabiscuit" pulled off surprise noms for best pic, befuddling the "experts."

It's all about passion. Remember how the Oscar voting system works: it employs a preferential ballot. Only number-one — and sometimes number-two — votes count. Therefore, if everyone in the academy agrees that "The Departed" is the fourth or fifth best film of the year, it won't be nommed.

Films like "Borat," "Children of Men," "The Prestige," "Miss Potter," "Apocalypto," "Half Nelson," "Pan's Labyrinth," "The Fountain," "The Illusionist," "The Devil Wears Prada," "Thank You for Smoking," "Casino Royale" and "The Lives of Others" have passionate fan bases in addition to many of those cited above. To get nommed for best pic all any one of them needs to break through is a top vote from one-sixth of academy members plus one. That's the math formula used by academy accountants. It doesn't matter if the contending film isn't cited anywhere on all of the other ballots. That would only matter if a weighted ballot was used instead of a preferential one.

(Photos: 20th Century Fox/ Disney)