If you believe, like many Oscar gurus, that "Dreamgirls" is the best-picture frontrunner, then you must think that it'll nab the most nominations, since that parallel usually follows. Over the past 20 years, the movie with the most bids has won best picture 17 times. The exceptions: In 1991, "The Silence of the Lambs" (7 noms) beat "Bugsy" (10), "JFK" (8) and "The Prince of Tides" (7). In 2001, "A Beautiful Mind" (8) beat "Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" (13). At the 2005 derby, "Crash" (6) upset "Brokeback Mountain" (8).

So . . . how many noms can "Dreamgirls" score? Pete Hammond at HollywoodWiretap.com believes Danny Glover could be nommed for supporting actor, in addition to Eddie Murphy. That's interesting. I don't agree, but let's count Glover for the heck of it along with likely noms for picture, director, screenplay, supporting actress (Jennifer Hudson), supporting actor (Murphy), art direction, cinematography, costumes, editing and sound.

That adds up to 11 noms so far. Then you must consider the song race where "Dreamgirls" will nab at least one bid for one of the four new tunes added to the original Broadway score. "Listen" is probably strongest, but "I Love You, I Do" could be nommed, too. If so, that brings us up to 13 noms, curiously the same total that another musical scripted by Bill Condon, "Chicago," had prior to winning best pic.

Personally, I think "Dreamgirls" will nab 11, including the two song bids. Sorry, Danny, you're really good in "Dreamgirls," but supporting actor is a crowded race.

How many nominations do you think "Dreamgirls" will nab? Please click the "Comments" link below and pipe in!

Photo: There's a remote possibility that Beyonce Knowles could be nominated for best supporting actress if Jennifer Hudson gets pushed up to lead by the Golden Globes, SAG awards or film-critics' kudos, then the Oscars. If that happened, Beyonce would be wise to just step aside and let the diva have her day, and drop down to the supporting race. Frankly, Beyonce's performance isn't strong enough to nab an Oscar nom in lead. She might have a shot in supporting, but that's all at the Oscars. Things may be different at the Golden Globes where Beyonce has an excellent shot at being nominated in the lead race. But that will be in the separate category for musical/comedy actresses, which is distinct from the drama race. At the Oscars there are only 5 slots for best actress, not 10. Five of them have to be ditched by the time you move on to the Oscars. Beyonce's will be one of the first to go. Her only hope of being among the nominees personally is to step down to supporting. It's a longshot, but her only shot.
(DreamWorks/Paramount)