Psssst! — Here are the Golden Globe frontrunners!
I have not conducted a scientifically correct survey of members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, but I've spoken with several members who express some views consistently enough to make me believe that they may reflect a broader consensus. Heck, there are only 90-some members of the HFPA. My sampling is a rather large percentage.
Beware, as of this writing (Monday), HFPA members had not yet seen "Blood Diamond" (they're seeing it tomorrow) or "The Good Shepherd," but here's what they think about the others in terms of early Globe jockeying.
Among dramas, voters are absolutely crazy about "Babel," "The Queen" and "The Departed." The other two slots for best drama picture will probably go to two of these three: "Flags of Our Fathers," "Bobby" or "World Trade Center." They're not responding gushingly to "The Pursuit of Happyness," but they love Will Smith's performance and plan to nominate him. There just doesn't seem to be sufficient support to lift the film itself up into the top race, as many people believe could happen at the Oscars.
One voter said that, between the two sparring 9/11 movies, they prefer "World Trade Center" to "United 93" "because it's more about the human relationships involved."
On the comedy/musical side, "Dreamgirls," "Little Miss Sunshine," "Borat" and "The Devil Wears Prada" look like locks for best-pic bids. The fifth slot could go to "Thank You for Smoking" or another small indie. Some observers say "Stranger Than Fiction," but not everyone agrees.
Photo: Three solid contenders for best drama picture at the Globes: "Babel," "The Departed" and "The Queen."
(Paramount Vantage/ Warner Bros./ Miramax)
I hope that Little Miss Sunshine makes a stronger showing -- it's a movie that has made the strongest impression in years. I also hope that Ryan Gosling gets a nod for Half-Nelson. I think the biggest oversight would be Aaron Eckhart for Thank you for Smoking -- not an actor that I cared one way or the other for before -- but he absolutely commands the screen and instantly became a leading man.
Posted by: jake | November 17, 2006 at 10:39 PM
kamila
I did NOT report that Borat will compete in the drama race. I said that Peter O'Toole moved over to drama to dodge Cohen in the comedy lineup.
Posted by: Tom O'Neil | November 15, 2006 at 04:04 PM
I'm almost sure that americans will nominate Oliver Stone's World Trade Center. It's a horrible movie, but it's the kind of picture that americans like. Too patriotic, too optimistic, too shollow.
Posted by: Rafael Moraes Moura | November 14, 2006 at 08:17 PM
No "Cars"? The HFPA loves Pixar.
Posted by: OscarFYC | November 14, 2006 at 05:30 PM
The closest Ryan is going to get to a Golden Globes is polishing his ex-wife's.
Posted by: bob | November 14, 2006 at 01:31 PM
Tom, now I don't understabd anything. Haven't you said that "Borat" was going to be on the Globes Drama race? Now, you say it is a lock at Comedy/Musical...
Posted by: Kamila | November 14, 2006 at 10:07 AM
Have any HFPA members you've spoken to said anything about nominating, or being impressed by, Ryan Phillippe in Flags of Our Fathers? I would really like to see a nomination go his way.
Posted by: Pats12Fan | November 13, 2006 at 11:08 PM
Hey Tom, have you heard anything regarding a 2006 release date for the Susan Sarandon/Ralph Fiennes starrer "Bernard and Doris"?
It was supposed to debut at this year's Toronto International Film Festival this past September but was pulled at the last minute by the producers.
It's been listed as a 2006 release for over a year on IMDb and the film is supposedly completed and ready for release, though I'm not sure whether the film has a distributor yet.
It seems like it would be a prime candidate for awards consideration if it sees the light of day before years end and is any good; with Sarandon and Fiennes vying for lead actress/actor nods in the musical/comedy categories at the Globes and Satellites and best actress/actor at SAG and the Oscars, not to mention among the various critic groups.
Posted by: Mack | November 13, 2006 at 10:25 PM