How ironic. Back in September when "The Departed" debuted in theaters, its kudos handlers muscled us Oscar writers strenuously, acting like some of the movie's goombahs who work for Frank Costello (Jack Nicholson), insisting, "It's not an Oscar movie, get it? 'The Departed' is just one of those fun, little entertainments. We strongly encourage you to keep it off your list of Oscar contenders, comprende?!"

Now "The Departed" not only looks like a shoo-in to be nominated for best picture, but it has a serious chance of winning. But, egads, how serious?

Very serious. You can spy it in the glint in Nicholson's devious eyes.

"The Departed" has many strong elements a film needs to claim the top Oscar gold. It's a big hit, surpassing $100 million at the box office. It's a big film, period — 151 minutes long (see blog item below: "'Departed' is biggest among best-pic sluggers.") It's got an overdue director (Marty Scorsese — more on that later) and it's got an A-List cast (usually, an essential element). Even more important: its A-List cast is cool and hip in a guy-guy kinda way.

You must be sick of reading me carp on and on about the Macho Cool Guy Factor at showbiz awards, but throughout my career of studying the historic patterns of winners, I've found that gender bias is one of the biggest issues. It's most prevalent at the critics awards, which get drowned in testosterone thanks to their voters being 80 percent-plus male, but many Oscar champs float to hormonal victories, too. After all, about two-thirds of Oscar voters are male. Voters just tend to be older and not act in a collective gang mentality, as critics often do.

A certain dash of Macho Cool is often needed to win an Oscar. That's how Clint Eastwood keeps winning and winning and winning. The Squinty-Eyed Tough Guy has one of the highest Cool Factors in Hollywood. George Clooney's got it, too. Ditto for lots of other Oscar winners — even some of the gals, including multiple winners Hilary Swank, Glenda Jackson, Bette Davis, etc.

Nobody in Hollywood has a higher Cool Factor than Jack Nicholson. He's so cool that he's the biggest male winner of every major showbiz award: the Oscar, Globe and the critics' awards from New York, L.A. and the National Society. He has no female equivalent. The biggest female winner of Oscars (Katharine Hepburn) is not the biggest winner of Globes for film performances (Rosalind Russell). In fact, Hepburn never won a Globe and Russell never won an Oscar.

Nicholson's hipness didn't fully pay off for "About Schmidt." The L.A. Film Critics Association voted it best picture of 2002 and he got Oscar nominated, but the movie didn't. "Schmidt" didn't have that kudos magic probably because the role itself wasn't cool. He portrayed a cranky geezer coming to terms with old age, not the sly hip rascal he usually does.

In "The Departed," though, the Ole Jack's back. As a grizzled, 'tude-bursting mobster, he snarls to Matt Damon, snearing, "A man makes his own way. No one gives it to you. You have to take it. 'Non serviam' . . . . Guineas from the north and down Providence try to tell me what to do. And, uh, something maybe happen to them."

Yeah, so this Jack is nifty-cool, all right, and so are his co-stars Damon and Leo DiCaprio. Add up all that plus the socko reviews "The Departed" got — 93 percent score at RottenTomatoes.com (albeit from mostly guy-biased critics) — and it's starting to look like an inevitable Oscar champ.

Especially when you toss in the Overdue Director Factor. Even if "The Departed" loses best picture, I think it's obvious that Scorsese will finally win the director's gold. The director and picture Oscars aren't as strongly linked as they used to be (they've only lined up three times in the past six years), but the connection is still there. It's what helped to prop up "A Beautiful Mind's" victory when the movie was under attack for sugar-coating its real-life story. The film's woes didn't matter in the end because academy members were so determined to give Ron Howard, a longtime showbiz insider, his Oscar at last.

The one problem that "The Departed" has is what its Oscar thugs warned about early this season: the movie is just an entertainment. It doesn't have a meaningful theme, which voters usually demand. But, hey, consider a few other winners of the same ilk — like, for example, "The Sting," which featured those smug, supercool dudes Paul Newman and Robert Redford. As thugs, no less. Amusing ones, like Nicholson and pals in "The Departed." Not scary thugs like the ones in Scorsese's "Goodfellas," which swept the critics' awards, but lost best pic at the Oscars. Academy members keep reminding Scorsese that they don't like his kind of "Gangs of New York" goombahs — probably because they're not cool, in that wink-and-nod, mischievous Nicholson-and-Newman-kinda way. Sure, Jack's scary in "The Departed," but he's always winkin' at us.

"The Departed" faces a tough fight against "Dreamgirls" and even "The Queen," "Little Miss Sunshine," "Babel" and "Letters from Iwo Jima," whichever ones of those make it into the High Five. None of them are as cool as "Departed," though, and one, "Dreamgirls," may suffer from being a bit uncool, being a bit too campy for some of the more macho dudes. Still, "Dreamgirls" is considered cool by lots of other voters.

At this point in the derby, strong cases can be made for "The Departed" and "Dreamgirls" as the frontrunner for the top prize. That may change drastically in the weeks ahead, as "Crash" demonstrated powerfully last year, but, for now, if this outlook proves to be correct, it's up to you to decide which factors matter most if you want to predict the outcome early.

Click on the "Comments" link below and tell us what you think!

Photo, top: On screen, Jack's the boss in "The Departed," as fawning Matt shows. Bottom photo: Director Scorsese really calls the shots on set. (Warner Bros.)

Sure, as of right now, it looks like Forest Whitaker will win best actor at the Oscars for "Last King of Scotland." So far he's won almost every critics' award and, based upon what I'm hearing from within the ranks of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, he'll probably nab the Golden Globe next.

Sometimes these award juggernauts are impossible to stop once momentum builds, as Geoffrey Rush discovered when he claimed the Academy Award for "Shine" soon after pulling off wins at the New York and L.A. film critics, then Globes.

But as Edward Douglas of Comingsoon.net notes below, let's not forget what happened to "Gangs of New York" star Daniel Day-Lewis. He swept up victories from the New York and L.A. Film critics, then SAG members, but lost on Oscar night to Adrien Brody ("The Pianist").

Many actors experienced the same Oscar heartbreak after sweeping the early kudos, but Day-Lewis is an especially good example to cite because he and Whitaker have something peculiar, and spooky, in common: both portrayed sinister roles with furious, eye-popping intensity. Day-Lewis was street gang leader Bill 'The Butcher' Cutting. Whitaker is Uganda's bloodthirsty dictator Idi Amin.

It's rare that villainous roles win Oscars. It happens from time to time, yes, as we saw with Anthony Hopkins prevailing as a devious serial killer in "The Silence of the Lambs." But Hopkins handled the role with such flamboyant excess and a taunting wink that it was hilariously campy. Whitaker really lets loose, too, but doesn't wash it down with chianti and fava beans. Hopkins had something else in his favor: his film was headed toward a best-picture win and, when that happens, stars often get to go along for the ride. There's not much hope that "Last King" can do that.

Thus it's entirely possible that Whitaker's early romp really mirrors the experience of Bob Hoskins, who won best actor from the N.Y. and L.A. Critics, National Society of Film Critics, the Golden Globes and BAFTA, but then lost to a film legend overdue for an Oscar: Paul Newman ("The Color of Money"). Whitaker faces a similar situation at the upcoming Oscars: Peter O'Toole ("Venus").

Which scenario do you think will end up applying to Whitaker this year? Click on the "Comments" link below.

Photos, from left: Whitaker, Day-Lewis, Hoskins, Rush.

(Fox Searchlight/ Miramax/ Handmade Films/ L.A. Times)

There are some curious surprises in part one of a comprehensive overview of the Oscars written up by Edward Douglas of Comingsoon.net, making it a cruel tease of a read. When predicting the five nominees for best director, he includes Paul Greengrass, but we don't know yet if Ed includes that helmer's "United 93" among his high five for best pic because that's coming soon in part two.

Ed's other four predix for best director are the usual suspects: Clint Eastwood ("Letters"), Stephen Frears ("The Queen"), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu ("Babel") and Martin Scorsese ("The Departed").

His five picks for best actress seem solid: Penelope Cruz ("Volver"), Helen Mirren ("The Queen"), Meryl Streep ("Devil Wears Prada"), Kate Winslet ("Little Children"), Judi Dench ("Notes on a Scandal").

He declares the race for best actor to be virtually finished: "At this point, Forest Whitaker seems like a shoo-in to take the Oscar for his emotionally-charged role as Idi Amin in 'The Last King of Scotland.' The majority of critics' groups and the National Board of Review have gone with Whitaker over the others, and he certainly seems to be in the same boat as Jamie Foxx and Philip Seymour Hoffman were in recent years where the early frontrunner ends up winning. Whitaker is almost guaranteed the BFCA and HFPA wins, but let's never forget Adrien Brody's surprise Oscar win a few years ago that must have left Daniel Day Lewis feeling rather confused and miffed."

Read more — CLICK HERE!

Photo: "Weekend Warrior" columnist Ed Douglas of Comingsoon.net.

Here's the list of award winners chosen by the Florida Film Critics Circle:

Best Picture: "The Departed"

Best Actor: Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"

Officially, "Dreamgirls" is now a box-office hit that'll probably earn more than $100 million, which is the magic number movies usually need to surpass in order to win the Oscar for best picture.

So now we must ask: Can it really win?

There are two ominous omens opposing it. The first is a lack of major support from print journos. "Dreamgirls" is missing from the ranks of many key lists of Top 10 Films of 2006 — not cited by the New York Times, Time, Entertainment Weekly, Hollywood Reporter and Chicago Sun-Times (Richard Roeper), for example. Reviews have been good-to-excellent (scoring 76 at Metacritic.com), just not consistent, scream-from-the-rooftop raves like you see for "The Departed" (85 score) and "Letters from Iwo Jima" (91) — two serious "Dreamgirls" rivals. That's typical, though. More than 85 percent of leading film critics are guys, more than two-thirds of whom are straight. Testosterone usually blinds them and they get caught up in a game of macho swagger that's hilarious to watch when you see them gabbing at industry events. Sissy movies are not only dismissed, but pummeled like school kids by bullies. The critics' cocky strutting gets so out of hand that female critics start straining the hardest of all just to fit in. Sometimes even the gay boys, desperate for social approval, betray their own, but not always. Psychologists could have a field day analyzing the ridiculous dynamic of the phenom.

When that phenom occurs, it doesn't mean that the male-dominated Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences will follow suit. Often, they'll break and go their own way, if they become suckers for a film's emotionalism. It's curious how one male-dominated group (Oscar voters) can differ so significantly from another (film critics). The reason has to do with proportion, methinks (about a third of Oscar voters are women — a much-higher percentage than among critics), and age. Oscar voters are north of 50 years old. They're head-strong geezers who aren't afraid to break from the hormonal frenzy of young gangs. They have the wisdom of age, they don't confuse romantic yearnings with weakness and they appreciate sentiment, especially if it's selling well at the box office.

Support is not just weak among some U.S. print journalists, but some foreign ones, too. That's really strange, because Golden Globe voters usually side with Oscar voters when the academy breaks from the critics' consensus. At the Globes, Bill Condon isn't nominated for best director or screenplay. When you ask HFPA members why, you hear awkward mumbo-jumbo about how they like the performances in "Dreamgirls," but not the aesthetic execution of the film. I don't buy the sincerity of that response, frankly. It's clear from the looks on their faces that some HFPA members just don't want to like it. That was obvious while seeing them at the special screening of a 20-minute preview at the Pacific Design Center in Los Angeles back in September. Before and afterward, I heard many of them grousing in the lobby about how they don't expect "Dreamgirls" to do well overseas, which matters to them a lot, being foreign journalists.

Or was their grousing a tribal response by mostly white people? This is the most difficult question of all to ask this awards season, but it's the key point. As one of Hollywood's top studio chiefs told me a few weeks ago, "Brokeback Mountain" lost the Oscar for best picture last year because of anti-gay prejudice. Not hatred. Hollywood is obviously a gay-friendly place. It's just that voters — the vast majority of whom are straight, of course — didn't see it as their film. The same thing could happen with "Dreamgirls" among the mostly white voters — let's be honest. They might like the film, but pull back a bit emotionally from it because they don't feel like they belong amidst an all-black cast. Let's not forget how, up until the recent joint wins by Denzel Washington and Halle Berry, only one African-American ever won a lead-acting Oscar: Sidney Poitier ("Lilies of the Field"). No all-black film has ever won best picture. One all-black film is tied as the biggest loser in Oscar history ("The Color Purple").

But Golden Globe voters picked "Brokeback Mountain" last year and they'll probably, despite some reservations, give "Dreamgirls" their award for best musical/comedy picture this year. Successful musicals usually win that category and chances are voters will want to acknowledge its importance in Yankee pop culture. Its only threat is "Borat" and voters can pay off that film in the best-actor race, giving Sacha Baron Cohen a separate chunk of gold.

When Globe and Oscar voters break from the macho groupthink of America's gritty print journos, we often see a sneak peek of that at the Critics' Choice Awards, which are bestowed by members of the Broadcast Film Critics Association. They're mostly TV journalists who don't always goose-step with the mean print boys — they tend to be more in line with Oscar and Globe voters. This year they put "Dreamgirls" on their list of Top 10 films. "The Departed" and "Iwo Jima" are there, too, but what's important is they didn't shut out "Dreamgirls."

"Dreamgirls" is also on the Top 10 List of the American Film Institute, which occasionally breaks with the critics' gangs. If one of those rare splits is coming between tough critics and academy members, we need to see it happen here first. But "Dreamgirls" made this list.

There's another key sign that academy members feel differently about "Dreamgirls" — that, in fact, they love it. It's a story about showbiz, after all, and it's getting the most enthusiastic responses of all 2006 films from audiences at academy screenings. And, happily, many film critics love it, too. Most important of all is Kenneth Turan of the L.A. Times, who wrote: "'Dreamgirls' is the entire musical package, a triumph of old school on-screen glamour, and we wouldn't want it any other way." It got one of the best rave reviews from the New Yorker, which declared that "a great movie musical has been made at last."

In the big Oscar picture, "Dreamgirls" will probably have another plus — the most Academy Award nominations, which usually foretells the best-picture champ. Over the past 20 years, the movie with the most bids has won best picture 16 times. The exceptions: In 1991, "The Silence of the Lambs" (7 noms) beat "Bugsy" (10), "JFK" (8) and "The Prince of Tides" (7). In 2001, "A Beautiful Mind" (8) beat "Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" (13), At the 2004 derby, "Million Dollar Baby" (7) beat "The Aviator" (11). At the 2005 race, "Crash" (6) upset "Brokeback Mountain" (8).

"Dreamgirls" could get 13: best picture, directing, writing, supporting actor (Eddie Murphy), supporting actress (Jennifer Hudson), art direction, cinematography, costumes, film editing, sound editing and mixing, and song ("Listen," "I Love You, I Do").

That doesn't mean that "Dreamgirls" will win, but it'll get a fair shot. Right now it's enjoying the spotlight of success, but part of that will wear off in weeks ahead as initial excitement levels off.

Then we can expect renewed surges for its chief rivals after "The Departed" wins best drama picture at the Globes and sentiment builds for Marty Scorsese to win his overdue Oscar for best director. Remember, that award usually pairs off with best picture. Historically, anyway. The voting pattern has split over the past six years. Three times the two awards have lined up and three times they haven't. The fact that there's a strong pull toward Scorsese right now signifies a pulling away from "Dreamgirls'" Bill Condon and therefore, maybe, "Dreamgirls."

There will also be a tugging away from "Dreamgirls" in favor of rewarding Clint Eastwood for taking a bold artistic chance with "Letters from Iwo Jima," which seems very different, very special.

"Dreamgirls" might fend off such tugs. The last musical to win best picture managed to do so — "Chicago" — when voters wished to reward an overdue director (Roman Polanski).

But — hmmmm — can "Dreamgirls"?

There's a big, perhaps crucial difference between these two musicals. "Chicago" had a strong heterosexual vibe. Man-hungry Catherine Zeta-Jones seduced Oscar voters with a naughty wink and a wiggle of naked thigh. Its story line was rather macho as it invited viewers to cheer on characters to get away with murder. "Dreamgirls," by contrast, features pretty gals in pretty dresses, but in a camp way, making it a gay man's dream. Uh-oh. Too "Brokeback Mountain"?

"Dreamgirls" looks like a real winner at the b.o., far exceeding even the most optimistic projections for its Christmas Day release nationally.

Early high estimates forecast that it might make $6 million while appearing on 852 screens. Instead, it made $8.38 million, according to showbizdata.com. That's $9,836 per screen.

Adding that total to the sum it made in limited engagement during its road show, "Dreamgirls" already has earned $9.53 million! And it just opened! Deena & Girls to the studio suits: "We're your Dreamgirls, boys, we make you happy . . . . "

Congrats to Bill Condon & crew. Oh, what an exciting Oscar derby they — and we kudos nuts — have ahead!

Solo female artists usually have an edge in the Grammy race for best new artist, so it's tempting to look at the nomination of Carrie Underwood and think: Aw, come on, she can't lose!   True, there are two other gals in the running — Corinne Bailey Rae and Imogen Heap — but Underwood is  already a proven winner (of "American Idol," that is). Even more curious, her candidacy looks a lot like a previous BNA champ, who's also a country thrush: LeAnn Rimes.

The Underwood/ Rimes parallel is fascinating, notes our forums moderator David "Guru" Schnelwar. In addition to the BNA race, Underwood is nominated for best female country vocalist just like Rimes was in 1996. Neither gal wrote the song that garnered them Grammy attention, but both tunes ("Jesus, Take the Wheel" and "Blue") were nominated for song of the year (but not record of the year, strangely) plus best country song.

In 1996, Rimes won the country-vocalist and new-artist prizes, while "Blue" won the country-song kudo and lost the top best-song race. Many Grammy pundits believe that Underwood and her tune could have the same fate. So . . . isn't the bigger picture starting to look rather creepy now?

If so, then predicting those Grammy categories should seem rather easy this year, eh? Well, not necessarily, notes Schnelwar, who's a great believer in the VH1 final-year Top 40 countdown being a key tea leaf when predicting Grammy champs. He thinks that the music channel's airplay is an excellent reflection of voters' taste. (See blog item below.)

"A huge difference between 1996 and 2006 is that, in 1996, Rimes' song was the only BNA nominee that year in the big three categories," he says. "This year James Blunt and Corinne Bailey Rae are both nominated in ROTY and SOTY against Underwood's SOTY nomination. Keep in mind that since 1999 every Best New Artist winner was ranked on VH1's year-end countdown (except Shelby Lynne because in 2000 all of the BNA nominees were NOT on VH1's year end countdown). Carrie Underwood has received no airplay on VH1.  James Blunt and Corrine Bailey Rae ranked on VH1's Top 40 of 2006."

Seems like our Envelope TV pundits have the Golden Globes' voting patterns figured out. They're forecasting that trendy new tube fare will prevail on Jan. 15: "Ugly Betty" for best comedy series and actress (America Ferrera), "30 Rock" for best comedy actor (Alec Baldwin), "Dexter" for best drama actor (Michael C. Hall). Last year we saw voter preference for hot new rookies like Geena Davis ("Commander in Chief") and Mary-Louise Parker ("Weeds").

Our pundits  also believe that some stalwarts might come through, like recent, belated Emmy champ "24" repeating as best drama series after claiming the equivalent Globe in 2001. Its star Kiefer Sutherland won best drama TV actor three years ago. Even though the Globes have the reputation for only caring about nominees that members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association want to write about for readers of their hometown newspapers back in Budapest, Cairo and Rio, old-timers sometimes come through. Consider what happened at the 2000 Globes when "Frasier's" Kelsey Grammer pulled off a surprising win as best TV comedy actor seven years after it debuted.

To check out the Buzzmeter, CLICK HERE! Look for the drop-down menu in between the intro description ("What Is the Buzzmeter"?) and the horizontal bar noting "Up from Last Week," etc. If the awards noted in red say "Academy Awards" or "Grammys," click on it to produce the drop-down menu offering the choice of "Golden Globes TV." Once on that main page, which features summary views of our experts, click on the link for "Individual Panelists' Rankings" to see a chart breaking down the category-per-category choices of each expert. Also remember to click on "Meet the Panel" to see their bios and photos.

As 2006 winds down and DVD screeners stack up on the TVs of academy members, late arrivals are taking a big risk of getting proper notice during holiday season when Oscar voters must cram in lots of judicial viewing. In the past 10 days or so, the following DVDs were received by the academy's general membership: "Rocky Balboa," "Apocalypto," "Notes on a Scandal," "Letters from Iwo Jima," "Catch a Fire," "Hollywoodland," "The Good Shepherd," "Borat," "Perfume," "Holiday," "All the King's Men," "The Painted Veil," "Blood Diamond" and "One Night with the King."

"Dreamgirls" swept the awards voted upon by the African-American Film Critics Association, including best picture, director (Bill Condon) and supporting actor and actress (Eddie Murphy, Jennifer Hudson).

"'Dreamgirls' is an extraordinarily, breathtaking example of inclusive filmmaking at its best, featuring an all African-American cast in an intelligent film with universal appeal," says AAFCA president Gil Robertson, IV.

Forest Whitaker ("Last King of Scotland") and Helen Mirren ("The Queen") won best actor and actress.

"Mr. Whitaker elevates an already amazing body of work with his riveting portrayal of Idi Amin," adds Robertson. "And, although our organization gives specific consideration to work by artists of African descent, Ms. Mirren's audacious portrayal of Queen Elizabeth is undeniably brilliant and deserving of our recognition."