Will Carrie repeat LeAnn's Grammy wins?

Solo female artists usually have an edge in the Grammy race for best new artist, so it's tempting to look at the nomination of Carrie Underwood and think: Aw, come on, she can't lose!   True, there are two other gals in the running — Corinne Bailey Rae and Imogen Heap — but Underwood is  already a proven winner (of "American Idol," that is). Even more curious, her candidacy looks a lot like a previous BNA champ, who's also a country thrush: LeAnn Rimes.

The Underwood/ Rimes parallel is fascinating, notes our forums moderator David "Guru" Schnelwar. In addition to the BNA race, Underwood is nominated for best female country vocalist just like Rimes was in 1996. Neither gal wrote the song that garnered them Grammy attention, but both tunes ("Jesus, Take the Wheel" and "Blue") were nominated for song of the year (but not record of the year, strangely) plus best country song.

In 1996, Rimes won the country-vocalist and new-artist prizes, while "Blue" won the country-song kudo and lost the top best-song race. Many Grammy pundits believe that Underwood and her tune could have the same fate. So . . . isn't the bigger picture starting to look rather creepy now?

If so, then predicting those Grammy categories should seem rather easy this year, eh? Well, not necessarily, notes Schnelwar, who's a great believer in the VH1 final-year Top 40 countdown being a key tea leaf when predicting Grammy champs. He thinks that the music channel's airplay is an excellent reflection of voters' taste. (See blog item below.)

"A huge difference between 1996 and 2006 is that, in 1996, Rimes' song was the only BNA nominee that year in the big three categories," he says. "This year James Blunt and Corinne Bailey Rae are both nominated in ROTY and SOTY against Underwood's SOTY nomination. Keep in mind that since 1999 every Best New Artist winner was ranked on VH1's year-end countdown (except Shelby Lynne because in 2000 all of the BNA nominees were NOT on VH1's year end countdown). Carrie Underwood has received no airplay on VH1.  James Blunt and Corrine Bailey Rae ranked on VH1's Top 40 of 2006."