The L.A. film critics just made official what was appearing to be increasingly obvious over the past 10 days as reviewers were shown "Letters from Iwo Jima" in the home stretch of the derby: we now have a good idea of what the fifth best picture nominee will be at the Oscars. That is, assuming none of the other frontrunners stumble: "Dreamgirls," "The Queen," "The Departed" and "Little Miss Sunshine."

"The Queen" looks safe since it was the Angelenos' runner-up choice for best pic and nabbed awards for best actress (Helen Mirren), supporting actor (Michael Sheen) and screenplay (Peter Morgan).

The New York Film Critics Online gave "The Queen" five kudos today: picture, director (Stephen Frears), actress, supporting actor and screenplay.

Angelenos gave their director's kudo to Paul Greengrass of "United 93," which was voted best pic by a different critics' group today: the Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Association. The Capitol gang agreed that Whitaker and Mirren were best actor and actress, but veered in the directors' race, opting for Marty Scorsese ("The Departed").

Most significant of today's critics' awards was the outcome in Hollywood, of course, since it may reflect views commonly held around Oscar Town. Only twice since 1990 have the best-pic choices of LAFCA failed to nab a corresponding top bid at the Oscars: "Leaving Las Vegas" and "American Splendor." That means "Iwo Jima" now looks like a good bet to make the academy High 5.

Only twice has LAFCA predicted the top Oscar winner in the past 20 years: "Schindler's List" and "Unforgiven." Every kudos group, literally, picked "Schindler's List" that year, but "Unforgiven" was one of those cases where LAFCA impacted the race profoundly. Clint Eastwood's epic oater hadn't been a serious contender for best pic before the L.A. critics hopped into its saddle.

But what about LAFCA's jaw-dropper for best actor? — Sacha Baron Cohen — no joke! — tying Forest Whitaker?

"This legitimizes what Cohen did on screen as a serious performance," insists Robert Koehler, LAFCA member who writes for Variety. "It's our most significant award this year. It recognizes 'Borat' as something more than just an object of freakish interest by the media."

Cohen's victory doesn't mean he's guaranteed a best-actor bid at the Oscars. Over the past 10 years two other winners of the same LAFCA award failed to gain academy recognition for the same roles: Liam Neeson ("Kinsey") and Michael Douglas ("Wonder Boys"). Three of the 10 LAFCA champs also won Oscars: Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Capote"), Denzel Washington ("Training Day") and Geoffrey Rush ("Shine"). Washington owes his Oscar to LAFCA. He wasn't even on the derby track before being launched by the L.A. critics.

Now kudos-watchers wonder: did the critics just launch Cohen into Oscar contention?

It looks like Cohen has a serious shot to prevail at the New York Film Critics Circle powwow tomorrow. In today's edition of the New York Post, critic Lou Lumenick writes, "I'm going to vote for him for best actor tomorrow at the New York Film Critics Circle meeting."

What about the star presumed to be the Oscar frontrunner? Peter O'Toole? He's been snubbed by early awards so far and will probably suffer the same fate amidst Gothamites tomorrow, but that doesn't mean anything. Everybody knew that Oscar-overdue Henry Fonda would finally win for "On Golden Pond," but he was ignored at early kudos of 1981. Actually, O'Toole fared pretty well with the Angelenos, coming in third place in the actor race. Ryan Gosling ("Half Nelson") came in fourth.

Will Smith ("The Pursuit of Happyness") reaped little support, but will be a major player at the Oscars and might even beat O'Toole.

Other also-rans: "United 93" and "Armies of Shadows" came in third and fourth place for best pic. Judi Dench ("Notes on a Scandal") and Kate Winslet ("Little Children") came close to winning best actress.

Close contenders for supporting actor: Mark Wahlberg ("The Departed") and Eddie Murphy ("Dreamgirls"). Supporting actress: Cate Blanchett (no film specified), Meryl Streep ("The Devil Wears Prada") and Frances de la Tour ("The History Boys"). Director: Alfonso Cuaron ("Children of Men").

The biggest upset pulled off by a real underdog was achieved by supporting-actress champ Luminita Gheorghiu, who portrays an ambulance attendant trying to help a dying man find a hospital in Bucharest in Romanian-language "The Death of Mr. Lazarescu."

"Gheorghiu had strong support from the beginning of the voting," says Koehler, "which tells us that the L.A. critics not only paid attention to foreign films, but appreciated subtle acting. Gheorghiu doesn't have a showy role."

In recent years LAFCA helped to get Oscar noms for its supporting-actress champs such as Chloe Sevigny ("Boys Don't Cry") and Shohreh Aghdashloo ("House of Sand and Fog"), but they all appeared in English-language roles. And not all critics' picks made it in, like Edie Falco ("Sunshine State").

"The Departed" was expected to do better than it did today, but it still demonstrated strong support even though it won no awards. After all, it placed third in a few races, including screenplay and supporting actor.