My Golden Globes predix: Mel Gibson will be the big story
"Dreamgirls" will get the most nominations Thursday morning when the Golden Globe bids will be unveiled at 8:35 a.m. ET, but I have a hunch that Mel Gibson will be the big media story.
Look for the Hollywood bad boy to rebound from his recent scandal by being nominated for best director. Or if he's not in that category, he'll nab a bid as best producer if "Apocalypto" pops up in the race for best-foreign language film. Yes, foreign-language film, not best drama picture. Explanation below.
Mel will probably surface in either category (or both) because Gibson is a Golden Globes darling. It was at the Globes of 1995 that he got launched Oscar-bound when he pulled off a shocking upset to win best director for "Braveheart." His Scottish battle epic lost the Globe for best drama picture to "Sense and Sensibility," but it ended up slaying the latter literary sudser when both met up later at the Oscars.
"Apocalypto" is not eligible to be nominated for best drama picture because that category is reserved only for English-language movies. The Globes define their foreign-film category by language, the Oscars by nation. Even though "Apocalypto" is an American movie produced in Hollywood, its spoken language is Mayan, so it must compete in the race for best foreign-language film. Same is true for Clint Eastwood's "Letters of Iwo Jima," which is in Japanese.
And speaking of foreigners and weirdness, watch out for "Borat." Certainly, it'll be nominated for best comedy/musical picture and Sacha Baron Cohen will be up for best actor, but its chances to win may be no laughing matter, even though nominated against superhot "Dreamgirls." Remember: it's about a foreign journalist who feels oddly out of place in America. Now remember who votes for the Globes: the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.
Here's my full list of bold, fearless Globe predix. Right now they may look totally brilliant, but by tomorrow they'll probably look very, very foolish. But I am a true kudos braveheart! Read on:
BEST DRAMA PICTURE
"Babel"
"The Departed"
"Flags of Our Fathers"
"Pursuit of Happyness"
"The Queen"
Runners-Up:
"Blood Diamond"
"Bobby"
"Little Children"
"United 93"
BEST COMEDY/MUSICAL PICTURE
"Borat"
"Dreamgirls"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"The Devil Wears Prada"
"The Holiday"
Runners-Up:
"Kinky Boots"
"Miss Potter"
"Thank You for Smoking"
BEST DIRECTOR
Bill Condon, "Dreamgirls"
Clint Eastwood, "Flags of Our Fathers"
Mel Gibson, "Apocalypto"
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Babel"
Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"
Runners-Up:
Pedro Almodovar, "Volver"
Robert De Niro, "The Good Shepherd"
Stephen Frears, "The Queen"
BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Leo DiCaprio, "The Departed"
Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
Runners-Up:
Matt Damon, "The Good Shepherd"
Hugh Jackman, "The Fountain"
Toby Jones, "Infamous"
Edward Norton, "The Illusionist"
Ryan Phillipe, "Flags of Our Fathers"
Michael Sheen, "The Queen"
Ken Watanabe, "Letters from Iwo Jima"
BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Sienna Miller, "Factory Girl"
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Kate Winslet, "Little Children"
Runners-Up:
Maggie Gyllenhaal, "Sherrybaby"
Elizabeth Reaser, "Sweet Land"
Naomi Watts, "The Painted Veil"
BEST COMEDY/MUSICAL ACTOR
S.B. Cohen, "Borat"
Johnny Depp, "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
Aaron Eckhart, "Thank You for Smoking"
Will Ferrell, "Stranger Than Fiction"
Jamie Foxx, "Dreamgirls"
Runners-Up:
Chiwetel Ejiofor, "Kinky Boots"
Robin Williams, "Man of the Year"
BEST COMEDY/MUSICAL ACTRESS
Annette Bening, "Running with Scissors"
Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Beyonce Knowles, "Dreamgirls"
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Renee Zellweger, "Miss Potter"
Runners-Up:
Juliette Binoche, "Breaking and Entering"
Toni Collette, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Cameron Diaz, "The Holiday"
Kate Winslet, "The Holiday"
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
"Apocalypto" (Mayan language, U.S.)
"Letters from Iwo Jima" (Japanese language, U.S.)
"Lives of Others" (Germany)
"Pan's Labyrinth" (Mexico)
"Volver" (Spain)
Runners-Up:
"Black Book" ("Zwartboek") (Netherlands)
"Children of Glory" (Hungary)
"Curse of the Golden Flower" (China)
"Days of Glory" ("El Benny") (Cuba)
"Golden Door" (Italy/France)
"Nomad" (Kazakhstan)
"Water" (Canada)










These predictions are actually pretty good. The first two sentences and the headline are what do the real damage.
Posted by: GelEGuy | December 16, 2006 at 12:40 PM
Apocalypto is the flick of the year.
Posted by: Beef Jezos | December 14, 2006 at 05:06 PM
I think everyone who argued with Mr. O'Neil picks should come back on here and offer him apology seeing he got the nominations about 90% correct, and two of those mistakes were due to him not picking double nominations for Leo and Eastwood in which he probably easily could have picked those but decided to share th wealth.
Posted by: Sean | December 14, 2006 at 08:04 AM
Guys, you need to stop criticizing Tom for his predictions -- they are just his thoughts, if you have different thoughts, then share them, don't attack!
On that note, I agree that Ryan Gosling should be nominated but why does terrence howards nomination last year have any relation to why he has better chances (according to one post). I see no connection with this. Terrence deserved his nomination last year to say anything otherwise is crazy.
Posted by: tom | December 14, 2006 at 12:08 AM
How does winning one directing award ten years ago qualify him as a "Golden Globes darling"? My recollection is he's only been nominated twice for acting ("Ransom" and "What Women Want") and lost both times. Contrast that with Jim Carrey or Tom Cruise, who for years won just about every time they were nominated (contributing, no doubt, to the Globes lousy reputation).
Posted by: chaz | December 13, 2006 at 11:24 PM
Nutty? My source is excellent -- the HFPA eligibility list, which notes Djimon Hounsou is classified as LEAD.
Now please share with us YOUR SANE, brilliant source that he's in supporting.
Posted by: Tom O'Neil | December 13, 2006 at 11:07 PM
Tom, Tom, Tom, don't you worry about compromising your reputation with so many nutty predictions? Where to begin?
How is Breaking and Entering considered a comedy/musical? As if Bobby stands a chance even with the HFP!! Where's Ryan Gosling? djimon Hounsou for best Actor, instead of supporting?
Posted by: I,Claudius | December 13, 2006 at 10:22 PM
Oh Tom, how the mighy have fallen. You don't list Ryan Gosling for Best Actor? MAY I remind you that Terrence Howard got a bid last year. That alone, especially in this weaker year for this respective category, should be enough to support Gosling's chances. Hounsou will probably get in in Supporting--unless it's a Heath/Jake-type situation with him and Leo. And I thought you said they agreed Sheen was Supporting as well. Speaking of Sheen, I think he's a lock for Supporting--I mean, playing Tony Blair...for HFPA...c'mon, they've gotta love that.
Anyway, I think you should include Stephen Frears as at least a runner-up.
Oh, and The Pursuit of Happyness? I doubt that Tom, not for BP. (Well, Mrs. Henderson Presents comes to mind...and The Producers...but that's a weaker category.)
Posted by: James D. (Cinemaniac86) | December 13, 2006 at 08:37 PM
no, frankly, they wouldn't
Posted by: Tom O'Neil | December 13, 2006 at 07:50 PM
Oh, Common on TOM. Everytime I read an article from a Hollywood pundit I see and hear the same thing. Eastwood, and Scorsese is a Globe darling so they will be chosen. Now its Gibson. Who else. Could it be they are chosen because they have the best product. No..the pundits would never think that, would they????
Posted by: netclipper | December 13, 2006 at 07:39 PM
Mel Gibson for Best Director? That's stretching it out way too thin.
Posted by: BC | December 13, 2006 at 06:43 PM
WHY DO YOU HATE PREDICTING SUPPORTING RACES, TOM! THEY'RE THE BEST RACE!!!!!!!!!! AH!!!
Posted by: sam coffey | December 13, 2006 at 06:29 PM
No Derek Luke?
Posted by: josh | December 13, 2006 at 06:22 PM
i would really like to see mel gibson atleast get the nomination for best director, despite his slanders " Apocalypto" is a great movie.
Posted by: Isreal Esparza | December 13, 2006 at 05:55 PM
Ummm...No Ryan Gosling? Not even for runner-up Best Actor? And Djimon Hounsou for Best Drama Actor? I thought he was more supporting than lead?
Posted by: sg | December 13, 2006 at 05:12 PM
someone would have to have a pretty strange sense of humor to consider Breaking and Entering a comedy or musical :)
Posted by: EDouglas | December 13, 2006 at 04:43 PM
Breaking and Entering is considered a Comedy/Musical?
Posted by: Jamie | December 13, 2006 at 04:11 PM