Here are some 2006 category predictions that I initially believe (as of Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2006) will prevail on Oscar night (ABC, Sunday, Feb. 25, 2007): Best Picture—"Dreamgirls"; Best Director—Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"; Best Actor—Peter O'Toole, "Venus"; Best Actress—Helen Mirren, "The Queen"; Best Supporting Actor—Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"; Best Supporting Actress—Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"; Best Original Screenplay—Peter Morgan, "The Queen"; Best Adapted Screenplay—Bill Condon, "Dreamgirls."

Scorsese is my biggest concern in these predictions. But I'm a little more confident in going with him because if he were to lose once again, Marty would set a new record for most best-director nominations without a single win—six. (His previous five: 1980's "Raging Bull," which dealt him loss to Robert Redford for best picture "Ordinary People"; 1988's "The Last Temptation of Christ," which resulted in Barry Levinson winning for best picture "Rain Man"; 1990's "GoodFellas, a second loss to an actor, Kevin Costner for best picture "Dances with Wolves; 2002's "Gangs of New York," which, despite nabbing the Golden Globe award, gave way to Roman Polanski prevailing for "The Pianist"; and 2004's "The Aviatior," for which he was defeated by a third actor-turned-director, Clint Eastwood for best picture "Million Dollar Baby.")

Consider whether Clint Eastwood is so loved to a point that the Academy would vote him a third best-director Oscar (he'll get nommed for "Letters from Iwo Jima" and not "Flags of Our Fathers") that would match his tally with the second-most-winnings likes of Frank Capra and William Wyler. (John Ford has the record—four.) Clint is beloved, and he's the only actor to win best-directing Oscars more than once (for best pictures 1992's "Unforgiven" and, as stated above, 2004's "Million Dollar Baby"), but I don't believe he'll be the one to stop Scorsese this time (as he did two years ago).

If anyone upsets Marty this time, it could be Stephen Frears for "The Queen." If "The Queen" and Frears get in with matching best-picture and -director noms—and they will—it'll be the first serious Oscar potential for Frears, who had directed past acting nominations for Glenn Close and Michelle Pfeiffer in 1988's "Dangerous Liaisions" (a best-picture nominee for which Frears himself wasn't nodded for directing) and Anjelica Huston and Annette Bening in 1990's "The Grifters" (a non-best-picture effort that snagged a best-director nod for Frears). Four performances directed to nominations from two films, it looks strong for Frears to do a threepeat with "The Queen's" revered Helen Mirren and Michael Sheen. Could this be a three strikes and he's out—or just the perfect combination of a winning best actress, best original screenplay, and viable contender in key categories scenario that spells victory for Frears?

Marty Scorsese is the one I worry about because he falls into that category that is Oscar's biggest hangup: refraining from awarding true "originals" in the best-directing category on too many occasions. No Oscars for Orson Welles, Vittorio de Sica, Frederico Fellini, Ingmar Bergman, Stanley Kubrick, Francois Truffaut, and Robert Altman. All, with the exception of Bergman, are dead. And it goes to show just how cruel the Academy can be. So is this finally Scorsese's year—or will the vote once again go someone else's way?

You talked about Letters as an alternative to Dreamgirls, but it seems to me like The Departed has become the frontrunner right now. It's getting a lot ot critics prizes, it has the box office, it has major star power and it has Scorsese. What do you think is keeping it from seriously being considered for the Oscar win? Is it too violent for AMPAS?

I would love to hear your thoughts.

Great job editing Tom!

I'm glad you mentioned not to rule out Kate Winslet due to the babe factor. I really do think that she could be the surprise win at the Oscar's (not the Globes). She's been nominated four times, very well respected and even though she's young she's certainly more accomplished then some of the other babes that have won/been nominated in year's past due to the babe factor.

By the way, great blue striped couch, looking for one myself.