Oscars mystery #2: Can 'The Departed' win best picture?
How ironic. Back in September when "The Departed" debuted in theaters, its kudos handlers muscled us Oscar writers strenuously, acting like some of the movie's goombahs who work for Frank Costello (Jack Nicholson), insisting, "It's not an Oscar movie, get it? 'The Departed' is just one of those fun, little entertainments. We strongly encourage you to keep it off your list of Oscar contenders, comprende?!"
Now "The Departed" not only looks like a shoo-in to be nominated for best picture, but it has a serious chance of winning. But, egads, how serious?
Very serious. You can spy it in the glint in Nicholson's devious eyes.
"The Departed" has many strong elements a film needs to claim the top Oscar gold. It's a big hit, surpassing $100 million at the box office. It's a big film, period — 151 minutes long (see blog item below: "'Departed' is biggest among best-pic sluggers.") It's got an overdue director (Marty Scorsese — more on that later) and it's got an A-List cast (usually, an essential element). Even more important: its A-List cast is cool and hip in a guy-guy kinda way.
You must be sick of reading me carp on and on about the Macho Cool Guy Factor at showbiz awards, but throughout my career of studying the historic patterns of winners, I've found that gender bias is one of the biggest issues. It's most prevalent at the critics awards, which get drowned in testosterone thanks to their voters being 80 percent-plus male, but many Oscar champs float to hormonal victories, too. After all, about two-thirds of Oscar voters are male. Voters just tend to be older and not act in a collective gang mentality, as critics often do.
A certain dash of Macho Cool is often needed to win an Oscar. That's how Clint Eastwood keeps winning and winning and winning. The Squinty-Eyed Tough Guy has one of the highest Cool Factors in Hollywood. George Clooney's got it, too. Ditto for lots of other Oscar winners — even some of the gals, including multiple winners Hilary Swank, Glenda Jackson, Bette Davis, etc.
Nobody in Hollywood has a higher Cool Factor than Jack Nicholson. He's so cool that he's the biggest male winner of every major showbiz award: the Oscar, Globe and the critics' awards from New York, L.A. and the National Society. He has no female equivalent. The biggest female winner of Oscars (Katharine Hepburn) is not the biggest winner of Globes for film performances (Rosalind Russell). In fact, Hepburn never won a Globe and Russell never won an Oscar.
Nicholson's hipness didn't fully pay off for "About Schmidt." The L.A. Film Critics Association voted it best picture of 2002 and he got Oscar nominated, but the movie didn't. "Schmidt" didn't have that kudos magic probably because the role itself wasn't cool. He portrayed a cranky geezer coming to terms with old age, not the sly hip rascal he usually does.
In "The Departed," though, the Ole Jack's back. As a grizzled, 'tude-bursting mobster, he snarls to Matt Damon, snearing, "A man makes his own way. No one gives it to you. You have to take it. 'Non serviam' . . . . Guineas from the north and down Providence try to tell me what to do. And, uh, something maybe happen to them."
Yeah, so this Jack is nifty-cool, all right, and so are his co-stars Damon and Leo DiCaprio. Add up all that plus the socko reviews "The Departed" got — 93 percent score at RottenTomatoes.com (albeit from mostly guy-biased critics) — and it's starting to look like an inevitable Oscar champ.
Especially when you toss in the Overdue Director Factor. Even if "The Departed" loses best picture, I think it's obvious that Scorsese will finally win the director's gold. The director and picture Oscars aren't as strongly linked as they used to be (they've only lined up three times in the past six years), but the connection is still there. It's what helped to prop up "A Beautiful Mind's" victory when the movie was under attack for sugar-coating its real-life story. The film's woes didn't matter in the end because academy members were so determined to give Ron Howard, a longtime showbiz insider, his Oscar at last.
The one problem that "The Departed" has is what its Oscar thugs warned about early this season: the movie is just an entertainment. It doesn't have a meaningful theme, which voters usually demand. But, hey, consider a few other winners of the same ilk — like, for example, "The Sting," which featured those smug, supercool dudes Paul Newman and Robert Redford. As thugs, no less. Amusing ones, like Nicholson and pals in "The Departed." Not scary thugs like the ones in Scorsese's "Goodfellas," which swept the critics' awards, but lost best pic at the Oscars. Academy members keep reminding Scorsese that they don't like his kind of "Gangs of New York" goombahs — probably because they're not cool, in that wink-and-nod, mischievous Nicholson-and-Newman-kinda way. Sure, Jack's scary in "The Departed," but he's always winkin' at us.
"The Departed" faces a tough fight against "Dreamgirls" and even "The Queen," "Little Miss Sunshine," "Babel" and "Letters from Iwo Jima," whichever ones of those make it into the High Five. None of them are as cool as "Departed," though, and one, "Dreamgirls," may suffer from being a bit uncool, being a bit too campy for some of the more macho dudes. Still, "Dreamgirls" is considered cool by lots of other voters.
At this point in the derby, strong cases can be made for "The Departed" and "Dreamgirls" as the frontrunner for the top prize. That may change drastically in the weeks ahead, as "Crash" demonstrated powerfully last year, but, for now, if this outlook proves to be correct, it's up to you to decide which factors matter most if you want to predict the outcome early.
Click on the "Comments" link below and tell us what you think!
Photo, top: On screen, Jack's the boss in "The Departed," as fawning Matt shows. Bottom photo: Director Scorsese really calls the shots on set. (Warner Bros.)
the oscars keep losing credibility with me with every year that passes...and believe mel it took a long time for me to get this old....i LOVED LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE. i love any year where many movies are very good. When movies like CRANK are considered for awards, i'll rethink things. for now, i have no idea which way the academy will titt. i can count on two fingers the number of films which won best picture that i truly agreed with and felt, deserved the award, since 1996. if i went back further, i'd only need one hand to count the films i agreed with. But shame on the academy for passing on one of america's greatest living directors, MARTIN SCORSESE. i mean, really.
THE DEPARTED was a great film, as were others which i know will be snubbed. the more things change, the more they stay the same.
Posted by: teri | January 16, 2007 at 02:36 PM
The Departed is phoned-in Scorsese. That movie is the equivalent of Kobe Bryant scoring 35 points against the Sixers on New Year's Eve. He's done it a billion times before...so why the big fuss over him doing it again?
The Departed will probably win...even though Dreamgirls SHOULD win.
Posted by: utzworld | January 01, 2007 at 08:57 PM
I think The Departed is locking up the race but only because that there is a lot of excitement about it. There is excitement about DiCaprio and Nicholson and Scorsese and it is not a Harvey Weinstein "Lets get Scorsese an Oscar grab." Even though it is a remake it is filled with Scorsese passion not Weinstein Oscar passion and I think that makes a lot of different. At the end of Weinstein's run at Miramax all of his movies were being snubbed in one way or another. Cold Mountain was snubbed for nominations and even though voters were checking off Aviator again and again and again in technical categories and supporting actress it still lost the top two because it was a HArvey Weinstein/Scorsese movie. The Departed is doing very well because it has no Weinstein. And one of its producers is Brad Pitt. Pitt, Damon, Nicholson, DiCaprio. They are very Hollywood even though Scorsese is not and it made a lot of money. Goodfellas did not make as much money as Departed.
United 93 has no shot because it is as deep as a Unsolved Mysteries recreation.
Dreamgirls will get nominations but only win techs and supp actress.
Posted by: Brian | January 01, 2007 at 02:48 PM
The Departed was an excellent film and should definetely win best picture. Leonardo dicaprio should win an oscar for either his role in The Departed or Blood Diamond. Martin should win best director for his work on The Departed, because I don't know when I,ve enjoyed a movie that much in quite a while. And coming from me that's saying something.
Posted by: emma | January 01, 2007 at 12:47 PM
I don't understand why so many (including the author) seem to think "Dreamgirls" is a favorite for Best Picture. It got mainly mixed reviews, and I have seen it on very few of the critics year-end Top-10 lists. I think the Departed (because of Scorecese more than the film itself) or Letters From Iwo Jima are the 2 front-runners.
Posted by: Stover | January 01, 2007 at 12:24 AM
I think Little Miss Sunshine is the best movie of the year -- it does dysfunction even better than American Beauty. I don't understand everyone's love of THE QUEEN, I think it is so overrated and it is not even about US history. It's an okay movie but in no way did I find it moving or earth shattering-ly good. Are there any other Litte Miss Sunshine lovers out there? It should at least be in the top 5 if not win best picture.
Posted by: jake | December 31, 2006 at 11:24 PM
I really feel as though this 'testosterone' rant is going a bit far.
This comment: "The Departed" got — 93 percent score at RottenTomatoes.com (albeit from mostly guy-biased critics) " needs to be addressed.
By doing a bit of homework, I found that there are 186 positive reviews and 15 negative. And, yes, you're correct in that 169 out of 201 critics are male.
BUT, there were 31 female reviewers and 30(!) of them gave The Departed a positive review.
I think this is important to take into consideration, not really helping the 'guy-guy' theory there.
Do the homework if you want to be taken seriously.
Posted by: Michael | December 31, 2006 at 03:19 PM
If United 93 gets nominated it will be unstoppable. The Best Picture nomination is getting solid , 6 Best Picture Wins from the critics, it already passed The Departed that has 5. Right now its The Departed, Dreamgirls, Letters from Iwo Jima, The Queen and United 93 in the Top 5, with Babel and Little Miss Sunshine outside but close.
Posted by: Mark | December 30, 2006 at 06:30 PM
Martin Scorsese was basically robbed of being honored by the Academy for some of the greatest films of the last 50 years!!
Let's see, Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, Goodfellas were the best.
The next level Mean Streets, Alice Doesn't Live Here Anymore,The Color of Money.
Next level, Last Temptation of Christ,The Aviator, Gangs of New York,Age of Innocence.
Next level,After Hours, King of Comedy, Kundun, Casino,Cape Fear.
Last level, Bringing Out The Dead
The Departed ranks somehere between the top level and the 2nd level i.e. Mean Streets etc.
That makes it pretty damn good.
I think Clint Eastwood has had a remakable career .
Especially his last 15 years have been phenomenal as a film maker.
But I believe he has stumbled badly with Letters From Iwo Jima.
Not as art or filmmaking skill but as a bid to gain respect or empathy for the service members of the Japanese Imperial Army .
These were the same soldiers who killed hundreds of thousands of innocent Chinese, Burmese, Filipinos, & Koreans in a barbaric rape & rampage through the Pacific in WWII.
They invented the suicide bomber and dragged and tortured American soldiers through the Bataan Death march that cost thousands of American families their sons, brothers & fathers.
To make their plight on Iwo Jima heroic or worthy of any admiration is hideous & despicable.
He should have quit after he made Flags of Our Fathers.
When Steven Spielberg made Saving Private Ryan he had the good sense and grace to not make a companion film showing the trials and tribulations of the soldiers of Hitler's Wehrmacht at Normandy.
He understood that these same guys were probably dragging innocent people out of their homes a few weeks before the Normandy invasion and packing them in cattle cars & sending them off to Birgen-Belson,Trblinka or Auschwitz.
Hey Clint what motivated Letters From Iwo Jima?
Whatever it was it doesn't deserve to be honored by the Academy.
It will be seen, thankfully, by less people than Flags Of Our Fathers and as you know that picture didn't exactly recoup its budget.
Are you going to present Letters From Iwo Jima personally in Shanghai, Seoul, or Manila?
How about in front of the Arizona at Pearl Harbor?
Why not?
The attack on Pearl Harbor had two sides to that story also.
You could get Oliver Stone to collaborate with you on it.
Posted by: Richie F. | December 30, 2006 at 04:48 PM
"Babel" is maybe the most interesting pic. Scorsese did some hack work with "The Departed."
Posted by: Paige | December 30, 2006 at 03:46 PM
The only example you can use "Crash" for is to show that Academy voters are a bunch of homophobes. "Crash" didn't win, "Brokeback" lost. Luckily, most Academy voters are not bigots (Mel Gibson aside) so I think "Dreamgirls" will certainly walk away with Best Picture. It is the Best Picture by far. "The Departed" is entertaining but B-level pulp at its best. Martin Scorsese does deserve an overdue Oscar and he may get it. I don't know, though, because Bill Condon did one hell of a job. Oh I forgot, he's gay so he'll get shafted. And not the kind he'll like.
Posted by: Jose | December 30, 2006 at 01:45 PM
EDouglas You're Dead Wrong.
Posted by: Michael Bluth | December 30, 2006 at 11:03 AM
Sadly, it's not even close to being the Best Picture of the year, so if it does win, it will be a travesty. And heck, I love Marty and all, but I think there are a plenty of other directors who deserve that accolade this year... Alfonso Cuaron, Guillermo Del Toro, Darren Aronofsky, heck even Mel Gibson!
Right now, Little MIss Sunshine is still the "maybe" for a nomination... basically, it, Babel and Letters from Iwo Jima are the ones that will have to lay claim to the fourth and fifth slot. Babel and Little Miss Sunshine have sent out thousands of screeners (not to mention having been widely seen already)...Iwo Jima hasn't. I do think it'll end up being between Dreamgirls and The Departed for the win. (Seth, critics/reviews mean nothing..it's all about what people think after seeing the movie.)
Posted by: EDouglas | December 30, 2006 at 05:10 AM
i really liked the departed. i was engrossed until the last minute of the movie. such a great ending. however, i just saw dreamgirls and i want to see it again. i bought the cd. i thought it was wonderful entertainment--i am older so seeing a good musical is fabulous for me. i hope dreamgirls wins.
Posted by: karin dicker | December 29, 2006 at 11:35 PM
DREAMGIRLS will win Best Picture and Scorcesse Best Director; deservedly.
DREAMGIRLS is the best film of the year and it deserves to win Best Picture at the Oscars and I hope to God the voters get it right this year and acknowledge DREAMGIRLS.
Please, if any Oscar voters are reading this, consider DREAMGIRLS as a viable candidate for Best Picture. It is a crowd-pleasing (to say the least), thoroughly enjoyable, amazingly entertaining, phenomenally performed, smartly directed piece of film that should be taken much more seriously than it is currently. The most dreary and dramatic films of the year don't always have to win! DREAMGIRLS is much more than entertainment. It's masterful art and I wish the Oscar voters would realize and recognize that.
Posted by: mike | December 29, 2006 at 09:18 PM
I think that, for the win, it is actually The Departed vs. Letters from Iwo Jima vs. (yeah I know this website is still avoiding this reality) United 93. United 93 is not the outside shot for a nomination it was a month ago. If it is nominated, this could in fact be a three-way horse race!
Posted by: mike | December 29, 2006 at 08:28 PM
Everyone is underestimating Little Miss Sunshine. If this year has a Crash, Sunshine is it.
Posted by: Richard | December 29, 2006 at 07:47 PM
As the end of the year comes all of the critics start to predict the oscar nominess and then if you read all of the critic's reviews about their oscar predictions then you can get an idea about who could be the winner in this case The Departed is in all of the prediction of the oscar predictors and is a Martin Scorsese film, a very respected fella who has directed some of the best films in the 20 and 21 century including "Taxi Driver(1976),Gangs of New York(2002)The Aviator(2004)Goodfellas(1990)Casino(1995)and Raging Bull(1980) in all of them he resived an academy award nomination for picture exept Casino but is another great film from him. Now he made The Departed another mob film in which by the beginnig of November it was go in to be the winner or it could of get trouble with DreamDirls but we new it was go in to win well Martin Scorsese never won an oscar as director. But then Clint Eastwood came with the early relese of Letters from Iwo jima the second part of His WWII Iwo Jima drama and it really help him by getting him to the top as best director and best producer with Steven Spielberg. I mean come on Martin Scorsese never won best director but he cann't win Eastwood with his mob film, Estwood made a movie in another Language and about war which is harder the a mob film and also he made two parts of the story of iwo jima and if the oscars gave the oscar to Martin for director it woundn't be really fear but if we are talking about picture The Departed Takes the gold home because to me it was The best film of the year even better than Letters from iwo jima. For Actor I think The fight is in between Leonardo DiCaprio for Departed and Forest Whitaker for The last king of Scottland.
For best Actrees I think Helen Mirren has it written all over her face.and Suppoting Actor Is in between Brad Pitt in Babel and Jack Nicholson and I think Nicholson delivered the best acting in a supporting role of the year but the academy will count the oscars he already has thats 3 already and so they will with Eastwood in director category. and finally for Actrees in a supporting role Is Jennifer Hudsons or Cate Blanchetts but I whould really think about the deft girl from Babel who plays the best supporting role next to Cate Blanchett. But lets see.
Posted by: Mauricio Ramirez | December 29, 2006 at 06:25 PM
United 93 will be this year's Crash, no Golden Globe nomination for best pic but there is a ton of support for the film. If it manages to get an Oscar nomination for Best Picture, I don't see how it will not win - it documents a key event in American history and pays (unsentimental) tribute to heroic everyday Americans who died in this tragedy, not to mention the film itself is a great technical achievement; furthermore, it's not unmacho like Dreamgirls, and it's not unimportant like The Departed. Even though I'd much rather see The Departed take home the big prize on Oscar night, I think United 93 will win best picture (and Scorsese will win best director).
PS: I think Dreamgirls is a rather lame movie with a very thin story and annoying/shallow characters.
Posted by: Antony | December 29, 2006 at 03:31 PM
I think The Departed will win Best Picture and Director. This is the year of sentiment, and Scorsese has a hit on his hands. If the voters go another way and not award him gold, I'd be shocked.
Dreamgirls is loosing the battle as far as Best Picture, I mean 76 percent on RT vs 93. It'll be an uphill battle. Unless Oprah becomes involved and other influential academy members.
And then there is always Letters from Iwo Jima from Academy golden child, Clint Eastwood.
Posted by: Seth | December 29, 2006 at 02:27 PM