'Babel' ahead for best pic? Are Time and E.W. nuts?
Take it from The Envelope: 'The Departed' and 'Little Miss Sunshine' are really out front for the best picture Oscar, but you wouldn't know that from what Entertainment Weekly and Time magazine have to say.
EW's staff has set up its equivalent of The Envelope's Buzzmeter, rounding up a panel of in-house experts plus Robert Osborne, author of the official Oscar book. They're picking "Babel" for best picture and "The Queen" for original screenplay. The latter forecast is a bit shakey, too, by the way. I won't say it's wrong, but strongly iffy. See EW's rundown here.
Here are Time magazine's predix:
PICTURE
Who Will Win: "Babel"
Who Should Win: "The Departed"
Who Was Robbed: "United 93"
DIRECTOR
Who Will Win: Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"
Who Should Win: Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"
Who Was Robbed: Mel Gibson, "Apocalypto"
ACTOR
Who Will Win: Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
Who Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"
Who Was Robbed: Sacha Baron Cohen, "Borat"
ACTRESS
Who Will Win: Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Who Should Win: Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Who Was Robbed: Gong Li, "Curse of the Golden Flower"
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who Will Win: Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Who Should Win: Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"
Who Was Robbed: Brad Pitt, "Babel"
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who Will Win: Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Who Should Win: Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"
Who Was Robbed: Maribel Verdu, "Pan's Labyrinth"
Photo: Paramount Vantage
I think Will Smith should have won at least one award during this award season.
But, I can see that Forest Whittaker is the favorite. I'm sorry both movies came
out the same year. I think Will could have won it, if that hadn't been the case.
In case some of you haven't seen the film, it's called "The Pursuit of Happyness."
Posted by: Dorez | January 31, 2007 at 09:41 PM
I don't care who Time or E.W. predict is going to win best picture. Predictions are iffy at best this year, the fact that one of the choices not to be predicted on is the god awful DREAMGIRLS, is the only thing I am glad to celebrate.
As a matter of fact, I am so happy that Dreamgirls is not nominated in the BP category that I will celebrate if any of the five nominated films win.
Posted by: Dana | January 31, 2007 at 08:54 AM
I'm with Time on Best Actress; Dench definitely should win. Mirren is simply great but Dench's Barbara Covett, a fictional character, is even more real than Mirren's Elizabeth II. Dench presents a precariously balanced person who doesn't even know she's at the brink until her loneliness and desperation overwhelm her. Too bad Dench had one of her juiciest screen roles in years the same year as the Mirren juggernaut. Ah well, Roll on Queen Helen.
Posted by: TenthOfMay | January 30, 2007 at 06:32 PM
AJ--usually that's a consideration, but not always. "The Silence of the Lambs," "A Beautiful Mind," "Million Dollar Baby," and "Crash" didn't have the most nominations in their given years. And certainly "Babel" isn't so far ahead that it's an overwhelming leader.
Posted by: Patrick | January 30, 2007 at 03:26 PM
A Little Miss Sunshine would be a disaster and an embarrassment after the CRASH win last year...Please no wins for treacly, mediocre films like these.
Posted by: Frankie R. | January 30, 2007 at 11:38 AM
Patrick, what about the most nominations between the five BP?
Posted by: AJ | January 30, 2007 at 11:32 AM
This constant bashing of awards predictions by other publications and websites from the Envelope is getting old. Time and EW are entitled to their own opinions and have managed to remain objective about the whole Oscar race by not becoming fanboys of one film in particular, which is something that cannot be said of the Envelope and Tom O'Neil in particular.
I think the BP race is between LMS, Babel, and the Departed. LMS is helped by its earlier DVD release and its SAG win. The Departed is the closest thing to a blockbuster among the BP nominees, so that will help it to some degree. Babel has gotten a lot of the precursors, including the GG win and has been on a lot of year end top 10 lists.
Posted by: Kelly | January 30, 2007 at 09:16 AM
Have read there is a last minute effort being made to cantapult Peter O'Toole into contention for Best Actor. Is there any chance a Whitaker-DiCaprio vote split could make this a reality?
Posted by: JcvsDallas | January 29, 2007 at 10:37 PM
"Babel" can't win best picture for a simple reason. Every best pic since 1940 (Rebecca) has won at least one of the "front page" awards--acting, writing, directing. If we assume the acting awards are set, the only one going to a BP nominee is Actress (Mirren for "The Queen"). Director will go to "The Departed," which is also the only BP nominee up for Adapted Screenplay. Original Screenplay seems destined either for "Little Miss Sunshine" or "The Queen." Thus "Babel" and "Letters from Iwo Jima" cannot win BP without at least one enormous upset, either in Original Screenplay or Director.
Then again...this has been a year of strange phenomena in awards season. The five BP nominees only have 26 nominations among them, a total so low you have to go back to the early '30s, when there were fewer categories, to match it. The lowest BP nomination total in recent years came in 1989 (29), the next lowest being in 2005 (30). Weird, weird stuff, as Johnny Carson was known to say.
Posted by: Patrick | January 29, 2007 at 10:10 PM