The omission of "Letters from Iwo Jima" from the list of best pic nominees from the Producers Guild of America shocked the Drudge Report, which reported in its headline: "Praised Eastwood flick overlooked in key Oscars indicator."

But Mr. Drudge shouldn't have been surprised. As I've reported a lot recently: late-December releases have been punished in the derby ever since the introduction of the new Oscar calendar several years ago. It's time studios started to pay attention. When PGA voters got their nomination ballots in early December, they didn't yet have DVD screeners of Eastwood's offbeat Japanese-language contender to watch. Most kudos voters check off ballots within the first few weeks, award accountants say. Eastwood's late-December release two years ago, "Million Dollar Baby," was different. Voters knew it was loaded up with superstars giving socko perfs — so they eagerly watched the film. Far fewer guild voters will rush to see a subtitled film about a war we won 60 years ago, but now paints us as the bad guys.

Last year some film critics had misgivings about "Munich," sure, but it got nommed for best pic at the Oscars. However, it was snubbed by PGA voters, many of whom probably didn't see it because it debuted in theaters at Christmastime and was about a subject that made them queasy — it portrayed the Olympics terrorists somewhat sympathetically. A movie like that and "Iwo Jima" need to be out earlier in order to give hesitant voters a chance to warm up to them. Last year PGA voters opted for "Walk the Line" instead, a fall release that was already a big breakout success financially — an issue that producers care lots about, of course.

The PGA has predicted Oscar best-picture champs 11 times over 17 years. Last year the guild opted for "Brokeback Mountain," the academy for "Crash." There'd probably be more overlap if the calendar wasn't an issue. Two years ago PGA picked "Aviator" like the Golden Globes did while the juggernaut behind "Million Dollar Baby" was still cranking up.

Usually, guild and Oscar nominees are off by one or two entries. Two years ago PGA chose "The Incredibles" over "Ray," which had late-breaking momentum thanks to a blitz of "For Your Consideration" ads in the L.A. Times, Variety and the Hollywood Reporter. In 2003, PGA cited six nominees, but none were Oscar contender "Lost in Translation" — the other two were "Cold Mountain" (a much better choice, in my stubborn opinion) and "The Last Samurai" (no comment). The two groups had exact matches in 1991 and 1992.

This year the nominees are: "Babel," "The Departed," "Dreamgirls," "Little Miss Sunshine" and "The Queen." I have a hunch the nominees will line up with Oscars this year.