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'Babel' Rising

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"I don't understand why everybody's saying the best picture race is between 'The Departed' and 'Little Miss Sunshine,'" an Oscar voter fumed to me the other day. "I voted for 'Babel' and I know a lot of other academy members who did, too!"

Over the past week, while chatting with lots of academy members and other Hollywood insiders, I've kept track of all of the alleged votes I've heard about. Practically everybody in town does the same thing, too, and they eagerly share their tallies with you in intense Oscar huddles that occur at Seven-Elevens, at the Starbucks, at Ralph's supermarket, at the endless stream of award shows (oh, will these guild kudos galas ever end?). The problem is: don't know who to believe, of course, because they all have their own movies they're secretly rooting for — films they have loyalties to, via work or personal connections — and they're probably tipping the scales for their own choice when they tattle to you. The surprising thing that keeps popping up consistently: how strong the vote is for "Babel."

Most Oscarologists (journalists mostly) have been saying emphatically of late that the race for best picture comes down to Abby vs. Goliath — oops, "Little Miss Sunshine" vs. "The Departed." But that's not necessarily what you hear out in the Hollywood trenches where the real voters are. Whenever an industry insider spills beans about what votes they've heard — whether they be advocates of "Sunshine" or "Departed" — they report huge numbers for "Babel." In most cases, actually, I hear "Departed" advocates (who don't admit they're advocates, but I can kinda tell) say that they count the biggest vote-getters as "Departed" and "Babel," not "Sunshine." And most "Sunshine" boosters insist that they've heard the most votes for "Sunshine" and "Babel." Maybe this is a case of advocates trying so hard to pooh-pooh the chances of their closest rival that they're hiking the vote tally of the presumed #3, but that's not what I'm sensing. Everybody's saying the same thing: "I can't believe how many votes I'm hearing for 'Babel'!"

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That's surprising for lots of reasons. Not only because journalist gurus (for the most part) have downplayed "Babel's" prospects, but because "Babel" has a huge drawback when compared to films that tend to triumph. "Babel's" only made $32 million in the U.S. so far. Usually, the victorious movie needs to have the potential to earn about $100 million.

But that wasn't true of "Crash" (about $50 million) and, frankly, journalist gurus are biased against "Babel" for some strange reason. Critics have given it mixed reviews. These are the Metacritic scores of the five nominees:

"The Queen" - 91
"Letters from Iwo Jima" - 89
"The Departed" - 85
"Little Miss Sunshine" - 80
"Babel" - 69

"Babel" director Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu used to be a darling of the critics, but they turned against him this year, probably because they got bored with him, even though he delivered his best work since "Amores Perros." Frankly, "Babel" is 10 times as good as "21 Grams," which they seemed to like a bit more than "Babel."

But here's a strange, perhaps ominous thing to ponder: "Babel's" 69 Metacritic score is exactly the same as last year's champ "Crash." And just like "Babel," "Crash" came in last place when scored by reviewers, even behind the much-maligned "Munich"!

"Capote" - 88
"Brokeback Mountain" - 87
"Good Night, and Good Luck" - 80
"Munich" - 74
"Crash" - 69

Mind you, not all journalists are betting against it. There are three editors of Entertainment Weekly who are excellent crystal-ballers. Dave Karger, Pete Bonventre and Mark Harris. Karger says "Departed" will win, but Bonventre and Harris say it'll be "Babel." That normally brilliant Oscar clairvoyant Jack Mathews of the New York Daily News says "Babel," too, and ranks "Departed" third behind "Sunshine." Bravely, Jeff Wells of Hollywood-Elsewhere.com is the only Envelope Buzzmeter guru who's picking "Babel." (CLICK HERE to see our full Buzzmeter breakdown — this link will take you to the main page with composite views — click on the link marked "Individual Panelists' Rankings" to see how we call the races per pundit).

Beware: as tantalizing as it may seem to jump now onto an imagined "Babel" bandwagon, remember this: it may be a phantom bandwagon created in a town populated with professional fibbers. "Babel" has won no guild awards. If it had, that would point to obvious industry support, considering that nearly all Oscar voters belong to the showbiz guilds (but not vice versa — the guilds have thousands of additional members). However, "Babel" has received the most guild nominations among the five best-pic nominees, so we know that significant base support exists. In a separate posting, I will explain why I'm sticking with "Departed" for best pic.

Photo: "Babel" has the most Oscar nominations among films up for best picture (7). Movies of the same rank won best pic 16 times in the past 20 years. "Babel" also won the top Golden Globe. Over the past 52 years, the top Oscar winner also won one of the 2 Globes for best pic 42 times.
(Paramount Classics)

Comments

I'd take the bold, cutting-edge film-making of Babel over the Jon-Bonet freaky, lame LMS any day. Obviously many in this forum don't get Babel and/or don't see its cinematic excellence...supposedly what the Academy is all about?? Lord knows I wish Pan's Labyrinth, Little Children or Children of Men, Dreamgirls were up for Best Picture instead of LMS. These films are by far worthier choices. A Babel win for Best Picture is far more welcomed than a LMS win. A LMS for Best Picture would be one of the Academy's biggest embarrassments--face it even CRASH looks worthier than LMS--could it get any worst than that?...apparently so...(cringe!).

In reply to Pierre de Plume, the Citizens of Babel started making a tower that would be so huge that it would lead directly to heaven. God didn't like that they were all working together to do something like this so he confused them all by giving them different languages so they could no longer communicate. If they weren't able to communicate, they could no longer work together. Thus the name of the movie. It shows how communications can break down and cause a lot of chaos.

I know I'm split when it comes to who will or even should win the Best Picture race. Both Babel and The Departed were great films. Babel had a message, but The Departed was a edge of your seat thriller. I think if either wins, it will be a good thing.

I think Babel is a great great movie!!! I don't know why so many hatters!! Probably is not their #1 I can respect that!! but to say that is a terrible film!! I don't know if is because is not an american Director with a "BIG" Name!! But if we analize the picture!! It's so superb!! So well done!!! Even if it didn't win any guild award, only the editors this past weekend, the movie is nominated for all the awards everywhere including in cannes for best director por IƱarritu!!

So I hope Babel wins, if it does that means thas honesty and good hard work and talent will win!!

BABEL IS BY FAR THE BEST PICTURE NOMINATED. I THINK THAT THE EDITING GUILD TIE WITH THE DEPARTED SHOULD MAKE A VERY INTERESTING SHOW. HOPEFULLY, FOR THE LAST AWARD OF THE NIGHT THEY WILL ANNOUNCE
BABEL BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR

Jasmine nailed it. "BABEL is a well-meaning mess."
I can't recall an Oscar season when a less-impressive, little-seen, meager box-office, mediocre, unenthusiastically reviewed, annoyingly pretentious movie was considered a "frontrunner." BABEL doesn't even belong in the mix when so many GREAT movies of 2006 were ignored. We should be talking about whether CHILDREN OF MEN or UNITED 93 or VOLVER or PAN's LABRYNTH will be walking away with the Best Picture prize. BABEL will be forgotten as soon as the ceremony is over. Even if it wins.

To me, BABEL is the one film I've seen out of the five that has stayed with me, made me think, made me feel and that I genuinely admire for its sheer breadth and scope. Inarritu's vision is passionate. I LOVE THIS MOVIE and can only pray it wins best picture.

Assuming Babel wins, is it a foreign language film? That would make it the first in history, but who wants to argue about that? The Academy should save us the trouble of figuring out if it's foreign or not. On another note, the Golden Globe is not a big deal. All it needed to win was 42 votes AT MOST. It could have had 20 votes and still won the Globe. So 42 people with a foreign film slant called a foreign-ish film the best movie of the year. OMFG the world must stop, there is no way Babel can lose! They weren't right last year, their musical didn't get nominated (see Dreamgirls) and their drama surprisingly lost (see Babel) to a film they didn't even nominate.

One question posed here was, "What was Babel's message?" The best answer to that would take a lot of space. To begin, one could look at the Biblical tale of the tower of Babel. I'm no expert on the Bible, but as I remember it, a prosperous city built a tower as sort of a symbol of its wealth and material achievement and then all hell broke loose when God got angry. Troubles regarding communication developed because humanity began speaking different languages. (I'm not suggesting the movie contains an explicitly religious message.)

I'm only one person -- everyone can have a different interpretation of this film because I believe the film is intended to ask questions and not necessarily furnish the answers -- I think the film's vagueness is intentional. I don't think the the filmmakers want us to be crystal clear on plot details.

Babel is a nonlinear movie. It doesn't go from point A to point B. It's about miscommunication and how people don't and can't listen to each other. It's about how one person's (or nation's) perception of reality can be so different from another's. It's about trying to listen -- really listen -- to experience that other's reality so we can get back on a shared page long enough to stop hurting the other. It's about realizing that what's real about ourselves sometimes isn't as relevant as is what the other guy perceives to be real. It's about learning not to prejudge people and things and not jumping to conclusions on the basis of appearances or one's own baggage from the past. It's about trying to recognize the temptation within ourselves to limit our perspective because it is seemingly safer to do so. It's about acknowledging the validity of a different perspective, another language. It's about how we're interconnected and how each one of us is part of a critical mass, that what one person does -- even an insignificant act -- can and does affect someone and, ultimately, everyone. It's about learning how to show ourselves to others, how to love.

How's that for starters? Just one person's interpretation.

This is horrible, horrible news. I consider Babel to be one of the WORST films of the year. And now this information comes out.....*cringe*. Any film but Babel for Best Picture this year, please!

here you go again Tom... sour graping and pulling dow LMS which you think robbed Dreamgirls of its best pic nomination slot. I hope LMS wins so you could quit your self-annointed job as oscar prognosticator!

If "Babel" wins then we will have two horrific films in a row as best Picture!

Doesn't the Academy hates to give similar films the award? Isn't that the general consensus why Ordinary People had the edge on Raging Bull (cause Rocky just won a couple years before). Just look at the last four years: Chicago, Return of the King, Million Dollar Baby, and Crash. You have a musical, a fantasy film, a boxing movie, and an ensemble movie. I just don't see Babel winning. It would be like the least grossing movie ever. On Oscar night if The Departed loses screenplay, it won't win. If The Departed wins screenplay then it'll go head to head with whatever wins the other screenplay UNLESS marky mark wins, then it has it locked. If Little Miss Sunshine loses screenplay, it won't win picture; on that same note, if it wins either acting category expect it to win. If Babel wins screenplay it could win picture. If The Queen wins screenplay and score don't be surprised if it wins picture, if it wins costume it'll be a bigger shock if it looses.

If BABEL wins it will be the worst Oscar -decision since... oh, yeah -last year. The worst of the nominated films can win once more? I hope it can't.

Yes, this prognosticator believes it's possible for "Babel" to take the big one. In a year that in which commonly held expectations in this category already have been skewed (the absence of "Dreamgirls," notably), a "Babel" victory could represent not only an odd sort of upset but also a voting pattern that is more traditionally in pace with the overall, historical voting pattern of the Academy (if one can actually characterize that).

First, "Babel" is the film in this category with the most nominations. This indicates broad Academy support (though the depth of this support remains unclear).

Next, although the film may not have won a greater share of awards leading up to the Oscars, its Golden Globe win carries the weight of significant precursor status.

The scope and themes of "Babel" give it an awards-worthy pedigree, and the issues it addresses have relevance to and resonance with this moment in time. The presence of star power (Pitt and Blanchett) paves the way toward its acceptance by the public as a film prestigious enough to win Hollywood's top award -- even though it may not be loved as much as apple pie. (How many people "simply adored" previous winners like "Gladiator," "The English Patient" or "Out of Africa"?)

Many prognosticators are focusing on the prospects of "The Departed" and "Little Miss Sunshine." Using statistical precurors as justification, experts provide sound rationale for a win by either of these films. Unfortunately for boosters of Scorsese's excellent film, however, many are discounting the fact that his films never seem to win and sometimes have been the target of backlash ("Gangs of New York," for example). Too often, the work of Mr. Scorses is regarded as technical virtuosity but lacking in the emotional accessibility ("heart") that can snare the broadest share of votes. On the other side of this coin, "Sunshine," is an admirable and frequently adored "little engine that could" that even caught the eye of the Producers, Writers and Screen Actors guilds -- a powerful combination. Ultimately, however, it may be destined to be regarded by the Academy as the film that plays more to film aficiondos than to the masses; these films typically garner a bone or two but not the top prize (eg, "Sideways," "Traffic," "Gosford Park," "Pulp Fiction," or anything by Merchant/Ivory).

Further difficulties arise as one considers the seemingly bleak prospects of "Letters From Iwo Jima." For many reasons, this film's chances have been clouded by a number of factors, not least of which is its record of not having been pitted against the nominees in very many competitions leading up to Oscar. (The film has even had to compete for attention with its fraternal twin, "Flags of Our Fathers.") A late release and ineligibility for a BAFTA due to technicalities in submission deadlines, for example, have deceived many into discounting the film's chances. Nevertheless, "Letters" has garnered some top awards, Clint Eastwood has been receiving formal acclaim for his achievements with this film (and with "Flags," as well), its reviews have been very good, and the public is beginning to receive it well despite its handicap of foreign-language dialogue and subtitles. Significantly, "Letters" did win a Golden Globe for best picture (albeit foreign-language), thereby qualifying for major status in a precursor kind of way. One cannot discount the fact that it beat a formidable contender (multiple nominee "Pan's Labyrinth") to win its Golden Globe.

So, in a year when the state of the best picture category is unclear and an upset may appear imminent, one can reasonably turn to the prospect that, though some form of upset may occur, it may not be as much of an upset as we may anticipate. "Babel" certainly could fill the bill as an upset of sorts. Notably, though, it seems poised to qualify as a more traditional choice that reflects historic Academy tastes: a serious film of scope, relevance, production values, critical appeal, and a track record that could solidly support the notion that "Babel" is the year's best in Oscar's terms.

I would like to ask people one question: what is Babel's message?

It has been labeled a "message movie," yet there is no message to it, in my opinion. Obviously, the director is trying to say something about the lack of communication in society, but I did not see anything in that movie that really gives evidence to this. The only message I got from this movie was: s*** happens because people are stupid. And I liked 21 Grams a lot better than Babel.

I haven't seen "Letters," but IMHO "Babel" SHOULD win, as it did best drama at GG.

Babel 10 times better than 21 Grams??? In what universe? Babel is overrated, all its characters are thinly drawn and they all make really stupid decisions that don't make sense. And that whole Japan thing(though it's the best part of the film) doesn't fit with the rest of them. Babel is a well meaning mess.

BABEL may not have won any Guild awards, but you should note that it has the MOST guild nominations out of any of the BP contendors. This indicates a widespread admiration across many different categories/crafts that other BP nominated films may not have. Babel is also the BP nominated film with the MOST Oscar nominations which also supports this theory.

Avast, matey

You've cursed ye Oscar race

Now the Babel will win

A pox on thee, Captain O'Neil, this be YOUR doing!

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