Best-pic switcheroo! Hammond ditches 'Sunshine' for 'Babel'!
As the derby enters its final week — and ballot boxes close today — many of us Oscarologists are starting to re-think old assumptions as we talk to more voters directly and analyze these races more succinctly. One of the best gurus of all — Pete Hammond of Maxim and HollywoodWiretap.com — just switched his best-pic prediction today from "Little Miss Sunshine" to "Babel." Why? I called him up on the phone to ask. Listen to our dishing of the whole, crazy best-pic race. (CLICK HERE to hear our podcast chat. Note: you may need to hold down your computer's Control key while clicking, then wait a few moments for the file to download.)
Here's what Pete says, in part: "I've been talking to my academy voter people and getting this survey, which told me last year 'Crash,' 'Crash,' 'Crash' and not 'Brokeback' at this point in the race. But I'm not getting that. It's all over the map. I talk to a 'Departed' person, then I get a 'Little Miss Sunshine,' then I get a lot of 'Babel' and so there doesn't seem to be a consensus.
"A lot of them think ('Little Miss Sunshine') is too slight for their vote as best picture. That's its biggest drawback. That and the fact that it doesn't have editing and directing nominations, which would make it the first in academy history to win that way. And 'The Departed' is too 'genre.' Scorsese — they appreciate him and all of that . . . but some people think it's not the BEST Scorsese. There have been better ones. So it's always odd that you're going to give an award to a guy for something that's not his best work, but that's what we often see. Then you've got 'Babel,' which is really appealing to people's social sense and it has a little more to it. And it's an international picture, which is what the business has become — worldwide. It's one drawback is the lack of guild support . . . . "
Photos: Sorry, Abby. Pete says that your trip to the Kodak Theater may have as much success as your road trip to a California talent contest in "Little Miss Sunshine." Pete now thinks it's going to be "Babel's" big night to party. (Fox Searchlight/ Paramount Vantage)
Wow! What a year! First, "Dreamgirls" gets shut out of a best picture nomination, then no one can agree on what should be the victor from among the remaining five nominees this year. Whew! With no apparent general consensus building, and reported Academy members voting all over the place, either one of two situations is happening: somebody's lying about how they are actually voting, or the final vote may end in a tie for best picture, an Academy first, mirroring what just happened with the Eddie guild awards, with "Babel" and "The Departed" tying for best film editing! At this writing, personally I have only seen "The Departed" and "LMS," and I enjoyed both of them. I want to see "The Queen," I may break down and see "Babel," and I'm not sure about "Letters from Iwo Jima." My sneaky suspicion is that the Academy may vote at least four Oscars to "The Queen," despite its quite nature (picture, actress, costume design, score, and possibly original screenplay to Peter Morgan, who also collaborated on "The Last King of Scotland"), because of its overall excellence. We may experience what happened 25 years ago when the British film "Chariots of Fire" upset everyone's apple cart, trouncing such contenders as "Reds," "On Golden Pond," and "Raiders of the Lost Ark," even "Atlantic City," remember? But we shall see what happens on February 25.
Posted by: Michael Lewis | February 22, 2007 at 07:28 AM
Jason Marino---very good analysis there. Hopefully, the academy have seen LMS for what it really is...a weak, comedic cliche ridden treacly overhyped movie. Sit and watch this movie again and pick it apart and what you're left with is another stale, cliche ridden comedy--nothing fresh in its execution nor in the message. Anything but LMS is worthy for Best Picture.
Posted by: Frankie R. | February 21, 2007 at 04:21 PM
Babel is far and away the best film of the year.
Posted by: Jimmy Tom Tom | February 21, 2007 at 03:36 PM
If Babel wins, I might cry. It is so dumb. I wouldn't mind anything else, just Babel, UGH! Not to mention it would be the lowest grossing best picture as far back as I can find records (1978, The Deer Hunter). Adjust them all for inflation it is really far behind.
Posted by: AJ | February 21, 2007 at 12:29 PM
I get kind of upset when people try to say "The Departed wasn't Scorsese's best so I won't vote for it or him". The truth is, most of the academy members who say this are the exact same members who were members 1990 when he made possibly his best film, Goodfellas, but the gave the oscar to the pretty boy in Native American garb. It doesn't matter, The Depated was the best movie this past year and should & will be rewarded acorrdingly.
Here is my take on Best Picture:
I feel that it's safe to say that Letters From Iwo Jima and The Queen are out. Nobody is getting behind them. They will like win for Sound Editing and Actress, respectively. This Race is between
Babel, The Departed & Little Miss Sunshine. Yet for everything positive for Bable & LMS I can find more against them winning than I can The Departed. Let's start with LMS: 1) It is a light weight in serious field. Can you honestly remember a Best Pic winner this light weight 2) Comedies don't normally win Best Pic and when they do, it either has historical pedigree (Shakespear In Love) or it truly was a masterpiece (Annie Hall), LMS is neither. 3) Oscar history: No film since 1980's Ordinary People has won Best Pic since without an editing nod (this is the real reason Brokeback lost), no film since 1989's Driving Miss Daisy has won best pic without a directing nod, no film in the history of the oscars, since the editing category was created,has won Best Pic without a nomination for both. I have more for LMS but it applies to both of them. So for now, let me pick on Babel alittle bit.
First off, Babel was the worst reviewed film of the bunch. While that didn't stop Crash from winning last year, take into account the many people despise Babel (most people didn't hate Crash, they just thought it was the weakest of the five),the movie's polarizing nature may turn of most voters. Second, oscar doesn't like to repeat itself in back to back years. It's highly unlikely that they will give oscars to multi-storyline, multi-character, socio-political, intersecting, multi-ethnic, race driven dramas two years running. Third, out of this The Departed & LMS, this movie was a bomb. Even Crash made a hefty profit. Lastly, it has been said, the academy "normally" picks important movies like Babel for Best Pic but when you look at the winners of the last ten years you will see that this is not the case.
1996: The English Patient-- Despite being set during WWII, the movie is completely a love story
1997: Titanic-- Big budget, effecst filled blockbuster love story
1998: Shakespear In Love-- Litterary love story/comedy
1999:American Beauty-- Satire on american family life
2000: Gladiator-- Big budget, crowd pleasing, action epic
2001: A Beautiful Mind-- Scizophrenic drama
2002: Chicago-- Musical
2003: LOTR: The Return Of The King-- Fantasy Epic
2004: Million Dollar Baby-- Boxing drama
2005: Crash-- Racism drama
Not much of a pattern there oscar pros.
Here are two fun facts that could and I'm predicting will lead The Departed to Oscar glory:
Most award pundits that are predicting LMS & Babel to win are predicting that those films to win only one other award. So do they really believe that Babel will win Best Picture and Film Editing only or Little Miss Sunshine will win Picture and Original Screenplay? So the Best picture of the year will only have 2 oscars? Not since 1952's The Greatest Show On Earth has a Best Pic winner
won less than 3 oscars. That's 54 years bud! The Departed, on the other hand is a shoo-in for Director and Adapted Screenplay and could win for film editing. That's 3, possibly 4 oscars for The Departed.
Now for the other fun fact: We are all in agreement that Scorsese will finally win, right?
Crash and Brokeback split the top two awards last year, right?
Not since 1951 & 1952 has there been a split in back to back years. That was when An American In Paris won Best Pic but director went to George Stevens for A Place In The Sun (1951) and The Greatest Show On Earth (that movie again) won best pic but director went to John Ford for The Quiet Man. Take that oscar pundits! Not you, Tom.
Posted by: Jason Marino | February 21, 2007 at 10:35 AM
Why must "The Departed" be Scorsese's "best work" to qualify as "Best Picture of 2007?
I heard similar complaints about "Beauty and the Beast" being the first animated film to be nominated for Best Picture. Some folks didn't approve because they didn't think it was the best animated feature ever made?
Does anyone honestly think this year's five nominees are the best films ever made???????
And if that argument is to be embraced, why should Alan Arkin even have been nominated. It's far from his best work. In fact, the bulk of his performance's effectiveness comes after his character's death. It's WHAT he taught his granddaughter to do -- as revealed during the talent competition -- that is the most memorable trait of his character. And Arkin didn't do a thing in that regard. It's one of the worst nominations I can think of for this year.
Posted by: Ron Pulliam | February 21, 2007 at 09:06 AM
THE DEPARTED is the safer bet as far as commercial appeal and polished film-making. Babel is a close 2nd. An LMS win would be the disaster of all time in the Academy's history--this Jon Bonet freak show is really not Oscar worthy--it is the worst choice the Academy has ever made to even nominate this unfunny kiddie porn movie...hell, CRASH looks like great film-making compared next to LMS...and that's not a good thing....THE DEPARTED or BABEL for Best Picture...LMS = ugly embarrassment for the Academy.
Posted by: Frankie R. | February 21, 2007 at 09:01 AM
I've been predicting all along that Babel will win. I don't WANT it to win, but I think it will. In a year that awards are being shared among numerous films, Babel will be rewarded with Picture and Editing, and Departed with Director and A/Screenplay. And I think I'm going to go out on a limb and predict Arkin for Supp/Actor. I just can't see the Academy giving someone like Murphy an Oscar.
Posted by: scott2007 | February 21, 2007 at 07:35 AM
I'm really surprised how much people don't want "Babel" to win. It simply is the best picture of the year.
Posted by: Thomas H. | February 21, 2007 at 12:24 AM
Great, Academy, just great
You're going to vote for the weakest link of the 5.
Shame shame shame
Posted by: Jack Sparrow | February 20, 2007 at 11:01 PM
It's obvious that at this point and figuring the puzzle no one will say this is the ONE. However, my bet still with LMS, I was doubting if Babel could possible beat The Departed and LSM, but I think is just a big fuzz critics are trying to throw at the last minute. Despite of Iñarritu's great work, Babel will take home only editing, I won't get the bone of internationally aclaimed, its box office was bad, bad, bad. So for me the final blattle continues between LSM and The Departed, and hopefully LMS will be the winner!
Posted by: Álvaro Zúñiga | February 20, 2007 at 10:51 PM
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
so boring to do this at this point.
why can't the deserving film win?
oh... it doesn't work that way. i see.
i love 'the queen had a chance and didn't capitalize on it'...
maybe 'the queen' doesn't really care
Posted by: Thadeus | February 20, 2007 at 10:08 PM
Please no! I really wanted to like Babel, but it's just not that good. I'm rooting for Little Miss Sunshine, but I would settle for The Departed. I like Alejandro Gonzales Iñarritu, particularly because he is one of the "three amigos" (himself, Cuarón and Del Toro), but really, Babel is just like Crash (maybe a little better), but nothing else.
I have my fingers crossed for LMS. The academy needs to understand that comedy is not a lesser genre.
Posted by: MartinC | February 20, 2007 at 09:26 PM
What have I been saying, Tom? With Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris NOT being put into the "Witness Protection Program" (as Bruce Beresford was while "Driving Miss Daisy" was vying for Oscars), the Oscar count for "LMS" will be A BIG FAT ZERO. (Though Alan Arkin could test that; he has the best shot at an acting upset right now.) Glad to see one of the big bloggers has finally figured that out.
I still think "The Departed" will win (no, it doesn't have to be "the BEST Scorsese", just the best film of 2006), but I definitely think "Babel" is second right now. "The Queen" had a chance, but didn't capitalize on it. "LMS" and "Letters from Iwo Jima" don't have a chance.
Posted by: RBBrittain | February 20, 2007 at 05:17 PM