Ultimate Oscar predix! Win your office pool!
At this time of year we Oscar gurus get nailed by family and pals pressing us to help them fill out their ballots for their office pools. (Remember to let The Envelope manage your pool for you — CLICK HERE!) Today I powwowed with Pete Hammond of Maxim and HollywoodWiretap.com to do a predix breakdown together so that you may have dual perspectives. Here goes:
A three-way race: "The Departed" vs. "Babel" vs. "Little Miss Sunshine." I say "Departed" is a slam-dunk because it will benefit from the Marty-Is-So-Overdue Syndrome plus it's a b.o. success ($130 million) packed with A-List stars (Jack! Leo!) and a major macho GUY flick (more than two-thirds of voters are male). Pete says it's "Babel" because it appeals "to people's social sense and it has a little more (depth) to it. And it's an international picture, which is what the business has become — worldwide."
BEST DIRECTOR
Marty, finally. But beware of Clint. He's ambushed overdue Marty in the past and this year I'm hearing about lots of votes for Clint again.
BEST ACTOR
Pete's playing it safe and you probably should, too — by opting for the actor who's won every other award this year: Forest Whitaker. I don't think Academyites vote for villain roles, especially when they're supporting parading as lead, although there is one notable exception (Anthony Hopkins, "Silence of the Lambs"). While talking with actual voters, I observe this race to be THISCLOSE between Whitaker and Oscar's Biggest Loser and Leo DiCaprio. I think Oscar voters are a sentimental lot who ultimately will opt for Peter O'Toole.
BEST ACTRESS
Helen Mirren. Period.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Eddie Murphy has the Cool Factor and he won both the Golden Globe and SAG. That usually means victory on Oscar night, but Pete and I are both scooting out on a limb here while noting that this is usually the Veteran Achievement Award category. Sure, Murphy's a veteran, but he's not well liked, not like veteran Alan Arkin. Although Pete and I pick Arkin, safe money should probably stay on Murphy.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Hudson, of course. But if you're itching to jump off an Oscar cliff, you might as well do it in one of these supporting categories. That's where the upsets usually happen. Pete and I betting that it'll occur on the male side, but if it happens here instead, it'll be the surprise triumph of the art-house nominee Adrianna Barraza. If you don't know who she is or why she can pull off this upset, stop right here. You should NOT be filling out an Oscar ballot.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"The Departed." If you want to take a flier here, go for "Borat."
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Pete and I both pick "Little Miss Sunshine," but Pete has more confidence in it than I do. I'm not sure they view this script as a strong literary achievement. Alternatives: "Babel" is a feast of different languages saying urgent things. If you're picking it for best pic, you may be wise to opt for it here if you want to take a chance. Longshot possibility: "The Queen."
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
"Cars." "Happy Feet" MIGHT be a spoiler.
BEST ART DIRECTION
Pete and I agree: "Pan's Labyrinth." But Entertainment Weekly disagrees, choosing "Dreamgirls."
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
"Children of Men"
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Pete says: "Traditionally, they go for the ornate period pieces. 'Curse of the Golden Flower' benefits from that. One year they gave it to the Japanese film 'Ran' and this is similar to that. It did win the guild award. They dislike 'Marie Antoinette' and I don't think 'The Queen' is a player. If they're going to go on a 'Dreamgirls' adventure, it could benefit. Basically, it comes down to 'Curse of the Golden Flower' and the rare contemporary movie, 'The Devil Wears Prada' because it's all about fashion. The clothes are key to the movie, which was a giant hit and well-loved by the academy. I'm torn in recommending one or the other. This is one of the toughest categories." But not for me. It's obvious. Go with "Dreamgirls." Come on, it's all about fab clothes swirling in air in sync to classic Broadway tunes being belted out by glam divas.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
"An Inconvenient Truth"
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Pete warns, "'The Blood of Yingzhou District' is so unrelentingly depressing that academy members were turned off. This comes down to 'Two Hands,' about a guy who gains use of his two hands and 'Recycled Life' about a family living in a garbage dump. I'm going with 'Recycled Life.'" I'll go with "Two Hands" because it has the nobler theme of a pianist regaining his gifts.
BEST FILM EDITING
Often this goes to the best pic champ. Pete's picking "Babel" here and above. He argues that "Babel" has the same cross-cutting, multiple-story structure as "Crash," which won both best-film and editing last year. Good point. Theoretically, I should go with "Departed" since I say it'll win best pic (industry fave Thelma Schoonmaker has won this editing award twice before), but it's not an edit dazzler like "Babel" — or its chief rival: "United 93." "United 93" is all about flashy editing and this could be its consolation prize for being shut out of the best-pic race. But I'm backing up Pete here: "Babel."
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Pete's picking "Lives of Others." I say "Pan's Labryinth." Pete argues that voters have the opportunity to honor "Pan's" elsewhere in other categories and this is the only place where they can hail "Lives." I don't think that's an issue at all. "Pan's" reigns supreme, period. This is one of those juried awards, like the documentary shorts. Only voters who see them may vote and we don't know who actually attended the screenings.
BEST MAKEUP
"Pan's Labyrinth"
BEST ORIGINAL MUSIC SCORE
"Spanish-themed music does very well here," Pete notes, "so it comes down to 'Babel' or 'Pan's.' I'm going with 'Babel.'" Me, too. Gustavo Santaolalla won last year for "Brokeback." "The Queen" may be the spoiler here. It's a best-picture nominee and its score won at the Globes.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Twice in the past when there were three nominees from a single film, one of the songs from that film won. In this case it would probably be "Listen" in "Dreamgirls." But Pete and I both think voters will go for the political rallying cry of "I Need to Wake Up" from "An Inconvenient Truth."
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Go with Disney's remake of "The Little Matchgirl."
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Pete and I agree: "West Bank Story." Possible spoiler: "Eramos Pocos."
BEST SOUND EDITING
Pete says "Pirates" because he thinks Clint's two war flicks will split ("Flags" and "Iwo Jima"). I say the loudest flick usually wins. Since "Iwo Jima" has the edge with the best-pic bid, I opt for that.
BEST SOUND MIXING
"Dreamgirls" because musicals usually win here.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"




I'd love for Melissa Etheridge to win an Oscar for song...I also just read your piece on Peter O'Toole and I think you've got a real point there Tom O'Neil!!!
Posted by: Ernesto Alonzo | February 21, 2007 at 08:45 PM
good article(s) but I am a bit confused when speaking of score. THE QUEEN did not even get nominated for a Golden Globe for score let alone win. Was I reading this wrong????
Posted by: mnmsf | February 21, 2007 at 08:32 PM
Yes, Desplat did with the Globe for "The Painted Veil", a movie almost completely ignored by the Academy. I do have a gut feeling that Eastwood will win something, and I do think he'll take the Oscar away from Sorcesse.
Posted by: anton williams | February 21, 2007 at 06:38 PM
Interesting, insightful picks w/ concise explanations.
One thing regarding Original Score: didn't Desplat win the Globe for composing for The Pained Veil, not The Queen?
Posted by: Jackson | February 21, 2007 at 02:34 PM